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Jake Mccarthy 2023 Outlook


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Jake did not play in a spring game between Mar 13 thru March 24, with a 'mystery illness'. He came back for games on 3/24 & 3/26, hit 7th and went 3 for 6 with 2 SBs and a legged out double. The legs seem to be fine. The overall health seems to be fine. The question among Twittersphere is did his absence require him to come out hot to move up in Lovullo's lineup or did he even lose his spot in the lineup to begin with.

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Roster Resource shows him batting 3rd.

               
 
 
                           
  ORIGINAL SIGNING INFO Prospect Rank Power Rank
2023 PROJECTIONS
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ORDER POS # PLAYER BATS AGE HOW ACQUIRED Options MLB Service Time
 
 
Year Team Rd Pick Ovr Rank ('23) Org Rank ('23) Org Rank ('22) Ovr PA HR SB AVG OBP SLG
1 LF 7 Corbin Carroll L 22.6 Drafted 1st Rd (16) '19 3 0.038 2019 ARI 1 16 2   1 391 602 17 20 .245 .330 .421
2 2B 4 Ketel Marte S 29.5 Trade (SEA) Nov'16 n/a 6.162 AUG 2010 SEA           87 595 17 6 .275 .345 .452
3 RF 31 Jake McCarthy L 25.7 Drafted 1st Rd (39) '18 2 0.170 2018 ARI 1 39       183 574 13 28 .256 .320 .406
4 1B 53 Christian Walker R 32.0 Waivers (CIN) Mar'17 0 4.124 2012 BAL 4 132       22 665 28 3 .254 .334 .454
5 3B 10 Josh Rojas L 28.7 Trade (HOU) Jul'19 2 2.152 2017 HOU 26 781       104 504 10 17 .249 .332 .384
6 DH 12 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. R 29.6 Trade (TOR) Dec'22 n/a 4.094 NOV 2016 TOR           139 504 13 4 .283 .332 .438
7 CF 5 Alek Thomas L 22.9 Drafted 2nd Rd (63) '18 3 0.151 2018 ARI 2 63       215 441 10 7 .258 .315 .405
8 SS 13 Nick Ahmed R 33.0 Trade (ATL) Jan'13 n/a 8.054 2011 ATL 2 85       497 420 8 5 .237 .294 .373
9 C 14 Gabriel Moreno R 23.1 Trade (TOR) Dec'22 1 0.061 AUG 2016 TOR           472 382 7 4 .273 .331 .391
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Kind of interesting looking at McCarthy's projections compared to his teammate, Corbin Carroll. Let's look at The Bat projections...

JM: .262, 11 HRs, 32 SBs, 75 Rs, 54 RBIs
CC: .257, 14 HRs, 19 SBs, 77 Rs, 61 RBIs

Ok, so maybe The Bat is the low man on Carroll. Steamer...

JM: .256, 13, 29, 66 & 65
CC: .237, 19, 20, 84 & 62

More favorable for Carroll, but still, you're probably trading some 10 steals for 10 homers? The Rs & RBIs will probably come down to where they bat in the lineup. Average may be close to a wash. But, Carroll is going over 50 picks higher.

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2 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

Kind of interesting looking at McCarthy's projections compared to his teammate, Corbin Carroll. Let's look at The Bat projections...

JM: .262, 11 HRs, 32 SBs, 75 Rs, 54 RBIs
CC: .257, 14 HRs, 19 SBs, 77 Rs, 61 RBIs

Ok, so maybe The Bat is the low man on Carroll. Steamer...

JM: .256, 13, 29, 66 & 65
CC: .237, 19, 20, 84 & 62

More favorable for Carroll, but still, you're probably trading some 10 steals for 10 homers? The Rs & RBIs will probably come down to where they bat in the lineup. Average may be close to a wash. But, Carroll is going over 50 picks higher.

Projections are never 100% correct obviously and the range of outcomes for both players is pretty vast. I think Carroll will produce its just a matter of how much. Mccarthy is someone who could be a complete bust and bat .220 with only 15 steals and very little homers. 

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2 hours ago, Willsea33 said:

Projections are never 100% correct obviously and the range of outcomes for both players is pretty vast. I think Carroll will produce its just a matter of how much. Mccarthy is someone who could be a complete bust and bat .220 with only 15 steals and very little homers. 

Most people fail.
Every player, who did not prove themselves at the highest level, could be a bust, so Carroll could be bust too.
Even players who proved themselves could go down the Cody Bellinger / Jason Heyward route.
Projections are merely show the most expected performance. To use them to prove anything is pointless.
This is just lottery, but with better odds.

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4 hours ago, JCD said:

Most people fail.
Every player, who did not prove themselves at the highest level, could be a bust, so Carroll could be bust too.
Even players who proved themselves could go down the Cody Bellinger / Jason Heyward route.
Projections are merely show the most expected performance. To use them to prove anything is pointless.
This is just lottery, but with better odds.

We draft with a heavy emphasis on projections. It isnt a pointless exercise to point out that two similar projections have very different ADPs

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Projection ranges are far more informative then a single exact projection.

The single number is just the simplified version via giving you the 50th% percentile outcome. Yet erases differences in on how wide the range is. McCarthy doesnt have enough MLB data to give a really good 50% percentile outcome or tight range.

Not gonna help you if the reason you are picking him is more for upside then caring about downside.

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I own dude in an NL only at a really good price.  That being said, I’m a little worried about regression.  The speed will play, and he’s a really good defender, but if he is an 8-10 homer, .250 guy, he likely becomes a 4th OF type.  Lots of talent scrapping for AB’s there.  I tend to be risk adverse, but his speed is just so tempting.

Best case IMO

.270

12-15

65-75 RBI

60-80 R

35-40 SB

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3 hours ago, CesarGeronimo said:

I own dude in an NL only at a really good price.  That being said, I’m a little worried about regression.  The speed will play, and he’s a really good defender, but if he is an 8-10 homer, .250 guy, he likely becomes a 4th OF type.  Lots of talent scrapping for AB’s there.  I tend to be risk adverse, but his speed is just so tempting.

Best case IMO

.270

12-15

65-75 RBI

60-80 R

35-40 SB

I would be extremely happy with these numbers. 

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4 minutes ago, reichl555 said:

Batting ninth?  Did I read that right?

I think that’s probably where he’ll be against tough lefties. Will probably move up against righties. 

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