Jump to content
NBC Sports EDGE Forums

Reason for so many busts this season?


yanksman
 Share

Recommended Posts

38 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

You’re living in the past. Last season he showed obvious improvements as a passer and this seasons he’s taken it a step further. I still want to see Lamar show up in the playoffs but the narrative that he can’t throw is old 

Correct.  Lamar is now just a good playoff showing short of Allen.  He's hitting a lot of passes now that he used to miss.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, BigNicc said:

I feel like this is a thread each of the last 3 seasons

It probably has been…but OP did provide the statistic on the drop in scoring per game for context. So it’s not like this is a “it feels like scoring is down” post with no proof.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fantasy is like playing Poker. The luck element is just big enough to keep those people playing that aren‘t much into research. So you kind of have to accept that you can‘t always win despite your effort. If it came only down to research we would probably have not enough friends and family to play with us anymore 😄 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The normally good consistent teams are bad and the normally bad teams are still kinda bad. 

The only useful fantasy players you can hang your hat on is the 3 QBs Hurts, Lamar and Allen plus the 1 WR Kupp. 

Everyone else is a weekly crapshoot, its time we start drafting the stud QBs earlier and stop banking on loser WRs who can get doubled. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

The normally good consistent teams are bad and the normally bad teams are still kinda bad. 

The only useful fantasy players you can hang your hat on is the 3 QBs Hurts, Lamar and Allen plus the 1 WR Kupp. 

Everyone else is a weekly crapshoot, its time we start drafting the stud QBs earlier and stop banking on loser WRs who can get doubled. 

you forgot jrob as a hat rack

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Scoring may be down a bit but otherwise it’s just another fantasy football season plagued by randomness, luck, inconsistency, and injury. It’s simply a flawed game that we pretend to have control over. Knowledge and logic are essentially useless in FF. Just do what the lists say and hope for the best. If you’re luckier than your opponents, you win!
 

So far, I’ve been relatively lucky, but it will even out I’m sure. It’s already starting to. In the span of just three weeks, Swift has gone from looking like an elite fantasy asset to an injured headache. Meanwhile, those who drafted Jamal Williams in round 13 may have a league winner. FF in a nutshell.

 

Edited by Lamont Sanford
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, yanksman said:

2-1 in both leagues. Nothing to do with that at all. Why cant we just discuss fantasy football here sometimes instead OUR teams?

Exactly.  Some of us have so many teams in so many different formats that this sort of thing drives me crazy.  Every once in a while I'll be slagging off Player X and some wisenheimer will come in and say "you sound like you missed out on Player X" or "you are obviously an owner of [Player X's main rival for touches/targets]."  Little does he know that I have like 13% ownership percentage in Player X, 9% ownership in his rival, I can't remember at the moment who I own more shares of, and I am objectively assessing the player.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Zak0221 said:

The normally good consistent teams are bad and the normally bad teams are still kinda bad. 

The only useful fantasy players you can hang your hat on is the 3 QBs Hurts, Lamar and Allen plus the 1 WR Kupp. 

Everyone else is a weekly crapshoot, its time we start drafting the stud QBs earlier and stop banking on loser WRs who can get doubled. 

If I could do it over again, I think I just would have taken Josh Allen as my first round pick in all leagues and then figured out the rest. That would have meant second overall in one league.

Every week, you just sense he's gonna produce at an elite level, He's a generational QB in the perfect system in the prime of his career with weapons everywhere and a coaching staff that wants him to light it up. BUF's middling running game just plays perfectly into this too.

Most bankable stud in the game and I'll admit I didn't see it coming two or three years ago when he was missing throws left and right. But he sure figured it all out.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some thoughts:

1. Two high safeties from defense is getting more popular it seems. I think some offenses are having a hard time adjusting to it especially when teams can still get to the QB rushing only 4 (which leads to me next point)

2. Seems like a lot of OL play is declining over the last few years. It has not kept up with the DL/pass rush talent being infused into the league 

3. Coaches want to run ‘their’ system, not necessarily fit their style with personnel. Just because they have a talented player may not mean they scheme to get them the ball consistently. 

4. Too much spreading the ball around from QBs and lack of gunslingers at the QB position willing to throw into tight windows

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think a big improvement on the defensive side of the ball is the vast improvement of defending against the running back’s ability to catch passes out of the backfield. 5-10 years ago, running backs were coming out of the backfield lined up against slow run stuffing linebackers. It was a guaranteed 5 yard dump off with high possibility for much more. Now the defenders are so much better in coverage and it’s shown up on the field. Even good pass catching running backs are having to work for every reception with better route running and tighter coverage.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, KooperCupp said:

If I could do it over again, I think I just would have taken Josh Allen as my first round pick in all leagues and then figured out the rest. That would have meant second overall in one league.

Every week, you just sense he's gonna produce at an elite level, He's a generational QB in the perfect system in the prime of his career with weapons everywhere and a coaching staff that wants him to light it up. BUF's middling running game just plays perfectly into this too.

Most bankable stud in the game and I'll admit I didn't see it coming two or three years ago when he was missing throws left and right. But he sure figured it all out.

I did this in an auction league (by spending the equivalent of a first round pick on him). It's been far and away my best first round pick in any league this year (so far).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, yanksman said:

It seems almost every RB is a bust this year. Many stud WRs have had several down weeks. It also seems like there are only a handful of stud QBs. TEs suck like usual. So whats going on here?

I know the average team's ppg are down DRAMATICALLY from last year. Last year team's averaged 23 ppg. This year that is down to 21.1 ppg.

Is it the lack of preseason?

My theory is the poor play of QBs... Mahomes, Rodgers,  Brady, Stafford, Murray have diminished weapons. Wilson and Ryan look like they should be closer to retirement than stud QBs. Burrow's offensive line is in shambles. Dak and Herbert are hurt. Other than Allen, Hurts, and LJax all other QBs are leading to poor scoring. Could be some bleak years for the NFL.

It was pretty obvious during draft season that this was a year to fade first round RBs and go WR/QB heavy early. There was a ton of discussion on this topic in these very forums in the ZERO RB thread. The first two rounds of RBs this year were HEAVILY populated with aging RBs. Granted, a lot of those late round RBs haven't panned out great either, but at least you have points from those WR/QB to cover.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Feels like alot of busts but their is plenty of young talent breaking out to make up for that. If you drafted with good structures you should be in good shape in enough of your leagues to make up for the busts. Sure if you just play a few leagues you might just get unlucky it happens. 

Rather then look at bad luck though best to look at things you can fix in future seasons. Are you drafting deadzone RBs to early and taking alot of older RBs that historically doesnt pay off. Are you skipping the TE deadzone thats a thing that cost drafters yearly. Are you not paying up to draft the 2nd year WRs like Waddle/Sungod?  Are you skipping the trend of rookie WRs dominating right away in recent years and giving up on talents like Olave/London/Wilson because their unproven? Those are the things to think about rather then "why so many busts" because those exist every year.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Jmiller21kg said:

 

3. Coaches want to run ‘their’ system, not necessarily fit their style with personnel. Just because they have a talented player may not mean they scheme to get them the ball consistently. 

 

agree with this.

It’s crazy to watch all these games with plays designEd within themselves vs. finding ways to utilize tiger best players.

Also, seems like the play callers refuse to keep the defense honest with screens. It’s almost like they think “their plays” can beat the defenses. 

 

 

 

Edited by FooserX
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Jmiller21kg said:

Some thoughts:

1. Two high safeties from defense is getting more popular it seems. I think some offenses are having a hard time adjusting to it especially when teams can still get to the QB rushing only 4 (which leads to me next point)

2. Seems like a lot of OL play is declining over the last few years. It has not kept up with the DL/pass rush talent being infused into the league 

3. Coaches want to run ‘their’ system, not necessarily fit their style with personnel. Just because they have a talented player may not mean they scheme to get them the ball consistently. 

4. Too much spreading the ball around from QBs and lack of gunslingers at the QB position willing to throw into tight windows

Not enough college teams running systems that benefit the development of OL. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The game has changed. 

1. You need to invest HEAVILY at WR. The idea is to have an elite group there. Even if 1 busts, the numbers are on your side with 3-4 others.

2. You need to invest in a QB who is a legitimate rushing threat. If the QB can't run, it's an unnecessary risk because it requires a career year. Even Kyler I think is being severely underrated currently (Rams are his kryptonite). Lamar Jackson is showing/has shown the upside of a career year from a QB with those abilities. Historic fantasy output.

3. You need to invest in a top 5 TE. Someone like ol' Delanie Walker at worst. 10 pts vs. 2 pts is huge. 20 pts (top 3)?!?! Game already over.

4. AFTER ALL OF THAT, try to find a RB at an appropriate age with the lead back role. I'm talking mid-rounder. May have a few warts. Nick Chubb was that guy for me this season (warts: Jacoby Brissett, Browns). AND HANDCUFF HIM UNDER ANY MEANS NECESSARY. Obviously try to cheaply find a RB2 as well, but this is nowhere near as important as 1 - 4. Handcuff him too.

That's winning in fantasy football in the '20s.

Edited by SlightlyStoopid
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Jmiller21kg said:

Some thoughts:

1. Two high safeties from defense is getting more popular it seems. I think some offenses are having a hard time adjusting to it especially when teams can still get to the QB rushing only 4 (which leads to me next point)

2. Seems like a lot of OL play is declining over the last few years. It has not kept up with the DL/pass rush talent being infused into the league 

3. Coaches want to run ‘their’ system, not necessarily fit their style with personnel. Just because they have a talented player may not mean they scheme to get them the ball consistently. 

4. Too much spreading the ball around from QBs and lack of gunslingers at the QB position willing to throw into tight windows

Excellent analysis.  I couldn't agree more on all points. 

The Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes are the perfect exemplars of this trend.  Get ready for some hot takes. 

Until recently, defensive teams were very content blitzing with 5 or 6 men and running one high safety.  Offenses adjusted by running Spread formations out of the gun, leaving too many guys for the defense to cover. 

The teams that had the most success were those with QBs who had good pocket mobility, could throw on the run, and escape the blitz.  Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray benefited from this; but the biggest beneficiary was Mahomes. 

This was a huge mismatch between offense and defense for several years.  Mahomes, so long as he was escaping a sack, almost always had receivers with massive separation. 

Fast forward to now and teams run two high safeties, rush with only 3 or 4 men, and drop everyone else in coverage.  Teams are increasingly faking one high safety looks, and then suddenly dropping back another LB or safety into deep coverage. 


For QBs, as you mention, this invokes a much different skill set.  Accuracy in tight windows in the premiere quality against such formations.  Gunslinging as you call it. 

Guys like Mahomes have suffered and been exposed.  Hot take, but I wouldn't put Mahomes in my Top 5 QBs in the league at any point in his career, talent wise, and, despite his arm strength, I think he is an average arm talent.  He lucked out in playing under the best offensive mastermind in arguably the history of the NFL in Andy Reid, and thrived at a time when he had the perfect skill set and offensive system to abuse aggressive defenses. 

This is born out in the advanced stats.  This might surprise people, but Mahomes infrequently throws into tight windows and when he does, he's not very good.  He's someone who has made a career of extending plays and hitting receivers when they have a lot of separation.  Kyler Murray has this exact same problem.  Although Murray's issue is compounded by his short stature and his questionable QB vision. 

I think there is going to be a very steep adjustment period for offenses in how to deal with this.  And not all the QBs or WRs will figure it out. 

This next generation of QBs absolutely need to have the confidence and ability to "force" balls, or else the game will devolve into low YPA, dink and dunks against heavy coverage. 

Interestingly, this might also mean a return of run heavy teams and two TE formations. 

Random, but even watching the Packers versus Bucs the other day, this played out.  First half the Bucs came with a lot of blitzes, and Rodgers beat them.  Second half they dropped everyone into coverage and successfully rushed with 4.  Rodgers settled for very short passes to RBs and TEs, and constantly faced 3rd downs because defenses took away the big plays. 


 

Edited by Rainyy
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Rainyy said:

Excellent analysis.  I couldn't agree more on all points. 

The Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes are the perfect exemplars of this trend.  Get ready for some hot takes. 

Until recently, defensive teams were very content blitzing with 5 or 6 men and running one high safety.  Offenses adjusted by running Spread formations out of the gun, leaving too many guys for the defense to cover. 

The teams that had the most success were those with QBs who had good pocket mobility, could throw on the run, and escape the blitz.  Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray benefited from this; but the biggest beneficiary was Mahomes. 

This was a huge mismatch between offense and defense for several years.  Mahomes, so long as he was escaping a sack, almost always had receivers with massive separation. 

Fast forward to now and teams run two high safeties, rush with only 3 or 4 men, and drop everyone else in coverage.  Teams are increasingly faking one high safety looks, and then suddenly dropping back another LB or safety into deep coverage. 


For QBs, as you mention, this invokes a much different skill set.  Accuracy in tight windows in the premiere quality against such formations.  Gunslinging as you call it. 

Guys like Mahomes have suffered and been exposed.  Hot take, but I wouldn't put Mahomes in my Top 5 QBs in the league at any point in his career, and, despite his arm strength, I think he is an average arm talent.  He lucked out in playing under the best offensive mastermind in arguably the history of the NFL in Andy Reid, and thrived at a time when he had the perfect skill set and offensive system to abuse aggressive defenses. 

This is born out in the advanced stats.  This might surprise people, but Mahomes infrequently throws into tight windows and when he does, he's not very good.  He's someone who has made a career of extending plays and hitting receivers when they have a lot of separation.  Kyler Murray has this exact same problem.  Although Murray's issue is compounded by his short stature and his questionable QB vision. 

I think there is going to be a very steep adjustment period for offenses in how to deal with this.  And not all the QBs or WRs will figure it out. 

This next generation of QBs absolutely need to have the confidence and ability to "force" balls, or else the game will devolve into low YPA, dink and dunks against heavy coverage. 

Interestingly, this might also mean a return of run heavy teams and two TE formations. 

Random, but even watching the Packers versus Bucs the other day, this played out.  First half the Bucs came with a lot of blitzes, and Rodgers beat them.  Second half they dropped everyone into coverage and successfully rushed with 4.  Rodgers settled for very short passes to RBs and TEs, and constantly faced 3rd downs because defenses took away the big plays. 


 

I didnt think I would read a take as terrible as Cooper Kupp is a system WR this season but P.Mahomes being not a top 5 QB at any point of his career has taken the cake. Well played rotoworld forums! 

If it was all because of Andy Reids system then Reid would have been winning superbowls way before Mahomes came to town.

Also you ignore the fact that Reid specifically targeted Mahomes in the draft for a trade up of multiple 1st because he knew how talented he was. You cant credit his great offensive mind and shrug off the great mind that knew Mahomes was the guy he needed.

 

Edited by buzzkilloton
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...