Reason for so many busts this season?

[dudewithabadcat]

2 minutes ago, TomBradysCollegeRoommate said:

I’m kinda in the same boat, I retired after I won my main league in 2018 after coming close so many times but got reeled back in 2 years later. Now I just wanna win it one more time and be done with it, but this season has me considering calling it quits after this year regardless

The beauty of that team (2019).  I was on vacation playing wild liverpool gin rummy with parents and wife.  I was about four to five stiff drinks deep and I was drafting with not a care in the world...just filling my roster (which is a technique I never do).  Ended up with a team that I literally never paid attention to and only lost three games.  My bench was so good that it would outscore my opponents.  Funny thing, a lot of players on that team are on my better roster this year.  Lamar, Sutton, Engram. 

Can't wait until I'm done with all this. 

[sSektor]

We're only 3 weeks in. Teams are rustier with shortened preseason. Lots of coaching and QB changes. Some previously bad defenses may have improved.

[dudewithabadcat]

More busts.  Less injuries.  

I also see a lot of teams taking the approach to stopping the top options with everything that they possibly can and then "prove that you can beat me with the rest of the team" attitude.  Classic BB. 

[jujus-jujubees]

Probably because every publication and prognosticator predicted every damn player in the league was going to have a career year. 

[SadFaceHappy]

27 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

The golden age of NFL QB's is over. We had a bunch of QB's throwing 35+ touchdowns a season, efficient pocket passers. 

Now colleges are throwing up nothing by Lamar Jackson types - guys who can run but suck at throwing. The age of running quarterbacks hurts every other offensive player. They'd rather just try and run with the legs they know they have versus squeeze a ball into a tight window. 

Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Burrow, with Lawrence emerging to potentially join that group and Watson waiting to resume his career.

Then second tier guys like Stafford & Dak, semi second tier dudes like Cousins, Tua, Carr, Kyler capable of having a couple elite games a year.

That's 14 legit alternatives to Jackson and Hurts, who are really the only low volume passers listed.

25% of current starters are legitimately elite QBs, and not just for fantasy. 

The NFL has never had so many elite, great, or good QBs playing at the same time.  If the golden age of NFL QBs is over, it's only because we've upped it to the platinum age.

[roadawg]

Translation, my team(s) suck.

 

Curious to hear your roster and maybe figure out why. What players do you have? What was the price you paid? Why did you "like" them anyway"? What perceptions were you just wrong about?

 

 

 

 

 

[StoneyJabroni]

This is also a result of new systems and/or players not taking reps in pre-season. We’re also at a time now where players simply aren’t as durable as they used to be, at least so it seems. Coaches are shying away from force feeding their highest paid players with insane volume this time of year because it doesn’t make sense to do so when the goal is to have them healthy and performing all season.

[ajs723]

55 minutes ago, yanksman said:

It seems almost every RB is a bust this year. Many stud WRs have had several down weeks. It also seems like there are only a handful of stud QBs. TEs suck like usual. So whats going on here?

I know the average team's ppg are down DRAMATICALLY from last year. Last year team's averaged 23 ppg. This year that is down to 21.1 ppg.

Is it the lack of preseason?

My theory is the poor play of QBs... Mahomes, Rodgers,  Brady, Stafford, Murray have diminished weapons. Wilson and Ryan look like they should be closer to retirement than stud QBs. Burrow's offensive line is in shambles. Dak and Herbert are hurt. Other than Allen, Hurts, and LJax all other QBs are leading to poor scoring. Could be some bleak years for the NFL.

This. Happnes. Every. Season. 

And this is why I was so adament Cooper Kupp should have been the number one pick in every format. Nothing in fantasy is consistent or predictable, except Kupp scoring points. His bust weeks are equivalent to good weeks from other players. 

[yanksman]

3 minutes ago, roadawg said:

Translation, my team(s) suck.

 

Curious to hear your roster and maybe figure out why. What players do you have? What was the price you paid? Why did you "like" them anyway"? What perceptions were you just wrong about?

 

 

 

 

 

2-1 in both leagues. Nothing to do with that at all. Why cant we just discuss fantasy football here sometimes instead OUR teams?

[Gohawks]

50 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

The golden age of NFL QB's is over. We had a bunch of QB's throwing 35+ touchdowns a season, efficient pocket passers. 

Now colleges are throwing up nothing by Lamar Jackson types - guys who can run but suck at throwing. The age of running quarterbacks hurts every other offensive player. They'd rather just try and run with the legs they know they have versus squeeze a ball into a tight window. 

What?

Burrow, Allen. Herbert, and Mahomes are all elite pocket QBs and very young. Even when you look at next years draft class Stroud is a pocket passer and he might go first overall and Young is also a good passer. 

[JE7HorseGod]

5 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Burrow, with Lawrence emerging to potentially join that group and Watson waiting to resume his career.

Then second tier guys like Stafford & Dak, semi second tier dudes like Cousins, Tua, Carr, Kyler capable of having a couple elite games a year.

That's 14 legit alternatives to Jackson and Hurts, who are really the only low volume passers listed.

25% of current starters are legitimately elite QBs, and not just for fantasy. 

The NFL has never had so many elite, great, or good QBs playing at the same time.  If the golden age of NFL QBs is over, it's only because we've upped it to the platinum age.

To an extent I think you are both right, but that "golden age" OP is mentioning IMO was kind of supported by some rules which favored offenses and eras where defense was continously playing catchup, which in a lot of ways was less impressive to me than eras where guys didn't put up such gaudy statistics but played against more evenly matched defensive competition.

They young guys on the come up now are probably going to have to deal with more adversity than the previous generation.  Everyone is adopting the Belichick-ian mutliple defensive looks, hybrid linebacker safety types for "big nickel" packages, feautring 5 or 6 DBs as a base to counter 3 and 4 WR personnel more frequently, etc.

I think it's cool.  I know most FF folks would prefer football was more of a 7 on 7 drill, but I still like blocking and tackling, and I don't need every QB in the league throwing 30 touchdowns to enjoy it.

[pushaZ]

51 minutes ago, yanksman said:

It seems almost every RB is a bust this year. Many stud WRs have had several down weeks. It also seems like there are only a handful of stud QBs. TEs suck like usual. So whats going on here?

I know the average team's ppg are down DRAMATICALLY from last year. Last year team's averaged 23 ppg. This year that is down to 21.1 ppg.

Is it the lack of preseason?

My theory is the poor play of QBs... Mahomes, Rodgers,  Brady, Stafford, Murray have diminished weapons. Wilson and Ryan look like they should be closer to retirement than stud QBs. Burrow's offensive line is in shambles. Dak and Herbert are hurt. Other than Allen, Hurts, and LJax all other QBs are leading to poor scoring. Could be some bleak years for the NFL.

I feel like most of the first round RB busts this year were entirely predictable. Ekeler wasn't going to get 20tds or even close to it as a 29 year old scatback designed former 6th round pick, Najee was clearly going to have a hangover after that ridiculous and inefficient performance last year, Cook is always a major gamble that usually loses, Derrick Henry was a lot worse in box adjusted success rate than people think last year, his team got worse and his body is breaking down. Jonathan Taylor had a rough start but he's not going to be a bust. D'Andre Swift is always an injury risk too.

At RB the game is getting more punishing, and keeping players fresh means more than ever. No RB with a second contract has been worth it. Next year people who are drafting RB will realize that the dropoff point for RB is really like 26 instead of 28 or 29 now. The younger RBs are doing just fine.

IMO The smart money is on not thinking that RBs are suddenly worthless and being VERY aggressive next year on Bijan, Jahmyr Gibbs, Tank Bigsby, etc. Just like young WRs are finally getting drafted early, young RBs should continue that trend as people start to figure out youth is actually the most important metric for success- get those early declares with strong college dominator rankings and fade the name brand players who have already "proven it". "He's proven" is literally the worst talking point in fantasy and has been for a long time.

[dudewithabadcat]

If you did not stack RBs early and often....then you are hurting.  RBs are like Bitcoin....get them in your roster as much as you can and hodl them.

[roadawg]

7 minutes ago, yanksman said:

2-1 in both leagues. Nothing to do with that at all. Why cant we just discuss fantasy football here sometimes instead OUR teams?

Because a lot of us don't agree with you. Most RB's bomb out every year, is this a surprise to you?

This year feels exactly the same as any other. Also why make a thread like this if you are looking like you could have a good team? 

 

You also used words like most WR's have had several down weeks, its week 3. How does this make any sense yet? 

Edited September 26, 2022 by roadawg
and...

[GarrisonHearst]

15 minutes ago, Sonny_D said:

One factor that hasn't been mentioned is the sheer stupidity in HC's today. It's ok to spread the ball around, but find ways to get the ball in your best players hands when it matters most. 

This is the best answer yet. Seems to be a staggering amount of bad coaching. Broncos, chargers, Seahawks and cowboys immediately come to mind. 

Also the  committee running back approach does more harm than good. It’s tough for a RB to get into a rhythm when he is getting rotated out every couple plays. 

[yanksman]

3 minutes ago, roadawg said:

Because a lot of us don't agree with you. Most RB's bomb out every year, is this a surprise to you?

This year feels exactly the same as any other. Also why make a thread like this if you are looking like you could have a good team? 

 

You also used words like most WR's have had several down weeks, its week 3. How does this make any sense yet? 

Scoring is down 4 points a game. This is a legit fact.

[JE7HorseGod]

14 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

This. Happnes. Every. Season. 

And this is why I was so adament Cooper Kupp should have been the number one pick in every format. Nothing in fantasy is consistent or predictable, except Kupp scoring points. His bust weeks are equivalent to good weeks from other players. 

If we're wanting to use 3 games to confirm biases I think it's time you let the Stefon Diggs fans do their victory lap TBH.

[dudewithabadcat]

Look at how defenses are being constructed.  

Put two massive DT in to clog the interior.

Surround DT with DL that are long, slim, athletic freaks.

Surround DL with LBs that are long, slim, athletic freaks.

Surround LBs with DBs that are long, slim, athletic freaks.

Defenses are more capable of playing against the speed that haunted them for a decade.  The HS and College systems finally caught up.  Faster and longer players make it tougher to hit tight windows, make it tougher to go outside...makes it tougher to go inside too.  In general, I think that we are witnessing a new era of the game and changes.  More 2RB sets to add adaptability and flexibility to the run and pass game.  Bigger slot receivers.  In general, the defenses are much more athletic than their historic counterparts. 

[Gohawks]

1 minute ago, dudewithabadcat said:

If you did not stack RBs early and often....then you are hurting.  RBs are like Bitcoin....get them in your roster as much as you can and hodl them.

Stack who exactly?

Najee, Mixon, and Ekeler look like first round busts so far. Even guys like Swift, CMC, and Henry who haven’t done bad on paper have a ton of concerns going forward. Swift with that RBBC, CMC horrible offense, and Henry with a depleted line.

Go just a round or so later and you got guys like Williams, Fournette, Conner, Elliot, and Kamara. 

[Code of Hammurabi]

10 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

Look at how defenses are being constructed.  

Put two massive DT in to clog the interior.

Surround DT with DL that are long, slim, athletic freaks.

Surround DL with LBs that are long, slim, athletic freaks.

Surround LBs with DBs that are long, slim, athletic freaks.

Defenses are more capable of playing against the speed that haunted them for a decade.  The HS and College systems finally caught up.  Faster and longer players make it tougher to hit tight windows, make it tougher to go outside...makes it tougher to go inside too.  In general, I think that we are witnessing a new era of the game and changes.  More 2RB sets to add adaptability and flexibility to the run and pass game.  Bigger slot receivers.  In general, the defenses are much more athletic than their historic counterparts. 

Also, no one plays man to man anymore. Defenses are way more complex. DEs now have the speed and coverage abilities never seen before. So coaches can throw all kinds of crazy schemes at QBs

[JE7HorseGod]

1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

Stack who exactly?

Najee, Mixon, and Ekeler look like first round busts so far. Even guys like Swift, CMC, and Henry who haven’t done bad on paper have a ton of concerns going forward. Swift with that RBBC, CMC horrible offense, and Henry with a depleted line.

Go just a round or so later and you got guys like Williams, Fournette, Conner, Elliot, and Kamara. 

I tried to get CMC, Javonte, and Swift, wherever I could and put them together with either Kelce or Andrews.  Got Chubb in one, wasn't my first choice but obviously worked out.  Would have taken Barkley or Eitenne but they never made it to a spot where I was.

Avoided Ekeler, Cook, Jones, Fournette, Conner, Elliot, Kamara and Henry.

Those teams aren't doing too bad, 2-1 or 3-0 in most.  Could have worked out with Henry or Jones.  Glad I didn't get Etienne of course.

[yanksman]

31 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

If you did not stack RBs early and often....then you are hurting.  RBs are like Bitcoin....get them in your roster as much as you can and hodl them.

Top 10 RBs in my scoring system:

1. Chubb

2. Robinson

3. CEH

4. Patterson

5. Swift

6. Jones

7. Jamaal

8. Herbert

9. Taylor

10. CMC

I disagree with the "early" part of your sentence.

[dudewithabadcat]

Just now, yanksman said:

Top 10 RBs in my scoring system:

1. Chubb

2. Robinson

3. CEH

4. Patterson

5. Swift

6. Jones

7. Jamaal

8. Herbert

9. Taylor

10. CMC

I disagree with the "early" part of your sentence.

Most of those are all before Round 6 eh? That is early to me.  sorry.  different intepretations

[MingusDew]

1 minute ago, dudewithabadcat said:

Most of those are all before Round 6 eh? That is early to me.  sorry.  different intepretations

Robinson, CEH, Patterson, Jamaal, Herbert likely went after round 6. Maybe not CEH.

[JE7HorseGod]

Just now, MingusDew said:

Robinson, CEH, Patterson, Jamaal, Herbert likely went after round 6. Maybe not CEH.

But absolutely no one was psyched about taking CEH where they did and if you say you were you're a liar.