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Kristaps Porzingis 2022-2023 Outlook


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First full season in Washington, finished 18th last season and 14th if you punt FG%. With blocks hard to come by I think he's a steal at his current ADP even with the injury risk. He looked solid down the stretch and should feast with Beal 

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Yeah I'm a huge fan. He's a big injury risk but at his current ADP it's worth the gamble given the kind of value he returns. That combo of elite ft, blocks, great scoring and rebounds is really, really hard to get and him and Embiid are pretty much the only ones who provide it. Will be taking a good look at him everywhere. If I drafted durable players in the first couple of rounds, I have no issues taking him in the late 3rd/early 4th. 

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Really curious what the realistic expectation is with his health. Last year was the biggest headache owning him, but I'll admit he was probably the one that carried me to a championship when it mattered. Truly a unicorn when he suits up, but how many games will that be?

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Just now, CharlesCC2 said:

Really curious what the realistic expectation is with his health. Last year was the biggest headache owning him, but I'll admit he was probably the one that carried me to a championship when it mattered. Truly a unicorn when he suits up, but how many games will that be?

If I'm drafting him, I'm setting expectations at 60-65 games. If he plays more, yay. If he plays around that range, you get what you expected. If it's less...well it is KP lol. 

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DND. Headache to own, yes he produced at the end but he’ll miss games for a hang nail. Doesn’t rebound for a big man. Purely just 3s and marginal points and a few blocks. Had him last season and will never draft him again.

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5 minutes ago, fabrar said:

If I'm drafting him, I'm setting expectations at 60-65 games. If he plays more, yay. If he plays around that range, you get what you expected. If it's less...well it is KP lol. 

Reason tells me he got so much rest last year that he's recovered and will play significantly more. My gut churns when trying to make myself actually believe this. Also don't know if there was just a strange dynamic between Porzingis and the Mavs organization, and if he's more inclined to put the work into preparation for staying healthy with a change in scenery, to a organization that seems much more enthusiastic about him. I'd love to see him slip to the fourth and, but might feel ill taking him in the third.

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5 minutes ago, EsTiLO said:

DND. Headache to own, yes he produced at the end but he’ll miss games for a hang nail. Doesn’t rebound for a big man. Purely just 3s and marginal points and a few blocks. Had him last season and will never draft him again.

You're being very reductive here. Rebounds are at 8 per game - not elite but pretty decent. 20 ppg is more than just "marginal", especially, someone at his ADP. "A few blocks" - he was top 10 in bpg, and the difference between him and the next 5 people on that list is like 0.02 blocks. You also conveniently left out his elite fts on pretty good volume, which combined with the 3s, makes him very valuable at his position. No one else is really giving you this combination of stats. 

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31 minutes ago, fabrar said:

You're being very reductive here. Rebounds are at 8 per game - not elite but pretty decent. 20 ppg is more than just "marginal", especially, someone at his ADP. "A few blocks" - he was top 10 in bpg, and the difference between him and the next 5 people on that list is like 0.02 blocks. You also conveniently left out his elite fts on pretty good volume, which combined with the 3s, makes him very valuable at his position. No one else is really giving you this combination of stats. 

Go ahead man go for it. 20 ppg mixed with stinkers . Inconsistent in Dallas even when Luka misses games. Who knows maybe he’s more consistent game in and game out in Washington but I really doubt it. All that you said looks good on paper but when you have him and watch him game in and game out, he’s frustrating to own.

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I've had him the past few years - he's so hard to to break up with.

When he's on, there's not many that can give you his production with the 3's, blocks and FT%. Problem is, the nagging injuries, and if Wash continues to stink, he'll sit the games to tank. 

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6 minutes ago, Code of Hammurabi said:

hasnt played 57 games since 2019. Thats all you need to know with respect to ADP and the draft capital you have to invest. Stay away.............

Played back to backs after the trade and showed up in the fantasy playoffs. Majority of the league is risky these days but it's all about value. If you get him 4th round that's a steal 

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Just now, DonutGiveUp said:

Played back to backs after the trade and showed up in the fantasy playoffs. Majority of the league is risky these days but it's all about value. If you get him 4th round that's a steal 

People always reach for this dude early. By January this team will be participating in Wenbenyama tank marathon and he'll be on the sidelines more often then not............

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1 hour ago, CharlesCC2 said:

Reason tells me he got so much rest last year that he's recovered and will play significantly more. My gut churns when trying to make myself actually believe this. Also don't know if there was just a strange dynamic between Porzingis and the Mavs organization, and if he's more inclined to put the work into preparation for staying healthy with a change in scenery, to a organization that seems much more enthusiastic about him. I'd love to see him slip to the fourth and, but might feel ill taking him in the third.

Agree I think they sat him to protect him from injury since Mavs were working on a deal. Him and Luka never worked out sadly and the fit now is better IMO. There's alot of weak centers he'll feast on in the East 

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1 minute ago, Code of Hammurabi said:

People always reach for this dude early. By January this team will be participating in Wenbenyama tank marathon and he'll be on the sidelines more often then not............

4th round ain't a reach tho. He provides earlier value. Wizards started well last season before locker room issues killed them. I don't think they'll be as bad as some think they retooled nicely. Morris, Barton, D. Wright give them good depth and they get a full season of Beal, KP and Rui. Not saying they're a playoff team but they're not a lottery team 

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2 minutes ago, DonutGiveUp said:

4th round ain't a reach tho. He provides earlier value. Wizards started well last season before locker room issues killed them. I don't think they'll be as bad as some think they retooled nicely. Morris, Barton, D. Wright give them good depth and they get a full season of Beal, KP and Rui. Not saying they're a playoff team but they're not a lottery team 

what locker room issues? lol. They sucked and had no talent last year... Simple as that...  Rui has been a scrub his whole career. Delon wright is a 15-20 min back up PG. 25-32 win teams arent worth the investment in higher priced assets due to risk of load management, tanks etc.  

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7 minutes ago, Code of Hammurabi said:

People always reach for this dude early. By January this team will be participating in Wenbenyama tank marathon and he'll be on the sidelines more often then not............

His ADP is like 50, and he has top 15 upside. How's that a reach? Even with the injury risk, that's actually pretty big value. At that ADP, the injury risk is priced in. You're getting an early 2nd round player in the 4th round - you have to compromise somewhere. If he was healthy and played close to 70 games, he'd be drafted in the top 20. 

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Just now, fabrar said:

His ADP is like 50, and he has top 15 upside. How's that a reach? Even with the injury risk, that's actually pretty big value. At that ADP, the injury risk is priced in. You're getting an early 2nd round player in the 4th round - you have to compromise somewhere. If he was healthy and played close to 70 games, he'd be drafted in the top 20. 

thats the problem see. He wont sniff 70 games. Hardly an players play 70 games, yet alone brittle players like KP in a tanking environment 

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Just now, Code of Hammurabi said:

thats the problem see. He wont sniff 70 games. Hardly an players play 70 games, yet alone brittle players like KP in a tanking environment 

You're proving my point lol. That's why he has an ADP of 50 - everyone knows he'll miss at least 15 games. Same reason why Kawhi is going in the 3rd round. It's totally understandable to err on the side of caution and not draft him but he does provide a lot of value, again, depending on where you're drafting him. 

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1 hour ago, CharlesCC2 said:

Really curious what the realistic expectation is with his health. Last year was the biggest headache owning him, but I'll admit he was probably the one that carried me to a championship when it mattered. Truly a unicorn when he suits up, but how many games will that be?

55-60 is my base case. More games played is what would elevate his value in my league beyond where I'll be drafting him (I'll reach above his projected value over 60 games in daft).

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2 minutes ago, fabrar said:

You're proving my point lol. That's why he has an ADP of 50 - everyone knows he'll miss at least 15 games. Same reason why Kawhi is going in the 3rd round. It's totally understandable to err on the side of caution and not draft him but he does provide a lot of value, again, depending on where you're drafting him. 

picking up what you're putting down, most definitely.

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2 hours ago, CharlesCC2 said:

Really curious what the realistic expectation is with his health. Last year was the biggest headache owning him, but I'll admit he was probably the one that carried me to a championship when it mattered. Truly a unicorn when he suits up, but how many games will that be?

If you're playing H2H it's a true gamble because injuries are binary, during the fantasy playoffs, he either plays or he doesn't.  Last season he was a first rounder during fantasy playoffs.  Ofc this year they could be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs by game 75, he rests during the fantasy playoffs, and you get no value from him.  Roto, things are a bit simpler.  55 games of top 20 value is still a third rounder.  I usually run a little ahead of games played anyway so I have no reservation taking him in the third. 

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30 minutes ago, Code of Hammurabi said:

what locker room issues? lol. They sucked and had no talent last year... Simple as that...  Rui has been a scrub his whole career. Delon wright is a 15-20 min back up PG. 25-32 win teams arent worth the investment in higher priced assets due to risk of load management, tanks etc.  

Ok so don't draft him dude no one putting a gun to your head. They clearly reported locker room issues surrounding Dinwiddie hence why he was traded 

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2 hours ago, CharlesCC2 said:

Really curious what the realistic expectation is with his health. Last year was the biggest headache owning him, but I'll admit he was probably the one that carried me to a championship when it mattered. Truly a unicorn when he suits up, but how many games will that be?

Last year? He carried my team to champ during playoff. 
He is my keeper next season 

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1 hour ago, csklmf said:

Last year? He carried my team to champ during playoff. 
He is my keeper next season 

Same.

I will say from the limited sample size in Washington, Porzingis looked MUCH more engaged on the floor. I only watched him a few times in Dallas last year, but if you told someone to watch the game who had no idea who he was they would've said he was some low usage role player. He looked passive, almost looking like he didn't expect to be part of the offense in his body language. Fast forward to Washington, he's almost calling for the ball a lot of times, guys are looking for him as if he's the main cog of the offense. Without Beal being there I was suppose he actually was. It'll be interesting to see how that dynamic plays out with Beal back.

Sometimes its about your environment, what you think is expected of you, and if you feel the organization believes in you. Perhaps its short lived and we're in a honeymoon phase, but right now it seems like he feels that Washington believes in him and wants him to be an integral part of the offense. Confidence can be everything, and it seems like he lacked it in Dallas, but has a bit of it here in Washington. It'll be a gamble drafting him as always, but my gut is telling me he'll be in a better mindset in DC and this will translate to performance. Of course this doesn't bring health into play at all, which is another risk in itself.

Edited by CharlesCC2
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