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Robert Williams 2022-2023 Outlook


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That's a problem with using default ratings or ADP in these sites.  Much of it is points leagues/8 cat leagues.  9 cat roto is a minority of leagues, despite being what most big money leagues are (less variance typically).  Collins should be top 50 in 9 cat roto and Randle outside 75.  In points leagues, flip that.  How many in here play points leagues for money?

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I just straight up don't like punting points lol. Maybe I'm a filthy casual, but I like  players that score oodles of points, because I also like to watch my top drafted players play in games in real life. I would much rather punt blocks given how concentrated the stat is amongst a few players who happen to be really good in that stat. I've always enjoyed going guard and wing heavy anyway. So yeah Rob Will is not really for me. 

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34 minutes ago, fabrar said:

I just straight up don't like punting points lol. Maybe I'm a filthy casual, but I like  players that score oodles of points, because I also like to watch my top drafted players play in games in real life. I would much rather punt blocks given how concentrated the stat is amongst a few players who happen to be really good in that stat. I've always enjoyed going guard and wing heavy anyway. So yeah Rob Will is not really for me. 

Fair.  At least you admit.  There's also more than one way to win, punt blocks isn't bad in the modern era.

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32 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Fair.  At least you admit.  There's also more than one way to win, punt blocks isn't bad in the modern era.

Benefits of block category in roto I feel that if you lead in blocks, its easy to stay in the lead where other categories it's always competitive throughout the season. I sometimes try to get a strong lead in blocks half the season and trade away at a high price. 

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1 minute ago, bballmaster said:

Benefits of block category in roto I feel that if you lead in blocks, its easy to stay in the lead where other categories it's always competitive throughout the season. I sometimes try to get a strong lead in blocks half the season and trade away at a high price. 

I wasn't referring to roto, I wouldn't punt blocks in roto.  Call me crazy but I love Myles Turner in 9 cat roto.

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Ouch,  this is a very bad news for "blocks are so valuable" crowd

Back to fantasy,  if "return to basketball activities "   means return to playing actual games,  8 to 12 weeks  is mid November to mid December return date

if "return to basketball activities "  is return to practice and ramping up until the knee  is ready, my guess is mid-January at the earliest.

Getting very close to DND list

And if Celtics implode, it could be even longer.  I can see Celtics trading for a  center. You are not a contender if your bigs other than  Horford  are Grant Williams, Luke Kornet and   Mfiondu Kabengele

Home court advantage  for Raptors in the first round :)

 

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I always wonder why guys have surgeries right before season tips off.

He's on my DND list now.  

Especially being a big, he's gonna be so limited even upon his return with rest days and minute restrictions, it's not even worth it.  
 

Let one of your league mates tie down an important bench spot all season and then get screwed for the first 3-5 weeks he returns.

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19 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

Ouch,  this is a very bad news for "blocks are so valuable" crowd

Back to fantasy,  if "return to basketball activities "   means return to playing actual games,  8 to 12 weeks  is mid November to mid December return date

if "return to basketball activities "  is return to practice and ramping up until the knee  is ready, my guess is mid-January at the earliest.

Getting very close to DND list

And if Celtics implode, it could be even longer.  I can see Celtics trading for a  center. You are not a contender if your bigs other than  Horford  are Grant Williams, Luke Kornet and   Mfiondu Kabengele

Home court advantage  for Raptors in the first round :)

 

Luka Samanic is coming to save the season

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This indirectly boosts the value of someone like StifleTower.  With Turner/Kristaps consistently playing sub 60 games and RobWill out, there's not many healthy 150 block players left.  With only half a dozen big block players in the league and half of them out at any given time, it makes any healthy big more valuable.  That or half your league will be soft punting blocks.

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18 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

I always wonder why guys have surgeries right before season tips off.
...

I feel like it's like Lonzo Ball's situation where the team wants them to play but they can't. Which is a red flag to me, when a guy keeps going back to knee injuries.

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Rob Williams got injured last season and comes back ahead of the schedule to play in the playoffs because the Celtics doctors assured him that there won't be any long term implications on his health. 

 

What was the name of that guy who played for the Celtics few and seasons ago and came back early from the injury because the Celtics doctors assured him that there wouldn't be any long term implications on his health?  Isiah something? 

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On 9/24/2022 at 1:38 PM, StifleTower2 said:

This indirectly boosts the value of someone like StifleTower.  With Turner/Kristaps consistently playing sub 60 games and RobWill out, there's not many healthy 150 block players left.  With only half a dozen big block players in the league and half of them out at any given time, it makes any healthy big more valuable.  That or half your league will be soft punting blocks.

Yeah either people are gonna be desperately reaching for whatever shot blockers are left, or punt it altogether. Drafts should be pretty interesting. If you are looking to be competitive in blocks, your options in the early rounds, if you didn’t draft Embiid, Giannis or gobert are pretty much Allen, Mobley, KP and Turner. In the mid rounds there’s capela and Poeltl but they really only fit on punt ft teams. 
 

who’s there later on in the draft? Isaiah Jackson is a big dart throw. Then MAYBE Isaiah Stewart and…brolo? Lol it’s looking dire. I’d be leaning towards punting it altogether tbh and just focus on drafting bigs like vuc, Ayton, Collins etc. 

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I don't think there is reasonable to punt blocks. Still available not mentioned here 1+ blockers like Mitch Robinson, Covington, Thybulle etc. And also there is quite good possibility to win at least 50% weeks when you have many 0,6-0,9 per game blockers like Kuzma, Wiggins, PJ Washington and others. Finally it is enough to have 25 blocks per week to be competitive in this category. I don't think there is difficult to collect team which is able to make 25 blocks average even without 1+ blockers.

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2 hours ago, apatas said:

I don't think there is reasonable to punt blocks. Still available not mentioned here 1+ blockers like Mitch Robinson, Covington, Thybulle etc. And also there is quite good possibility to win at least 50% weeks when you have many 0,6-0,9 per game blockers like Kuzma, Wiggins, PJ Washington and others. Finally it is enough to have 25 blocks per week to be competitive in this category. I don't think there is difficult to collect team which is able to make 25 blocks average even without 1+ blockers.

And we argued for 9 pages last season that Covington was either borderline or was droppable in leagues cause of his performance. Plus who is holding someone on their roster like Thybulle unless you in a very deep league like 16+.

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On 9/21/2022 at 2:24 PM, Gile Pile said:

https://basketball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/nba/draftanalysis?tab=SD&pos=ALL&sort=DA_AP&count=0

https://fantasy.espn.com/basketball/livedraftresults

your point that " there are even fewer shot blockers available in the 70-100 range." is also questionable. Just look at ADP for ESPN and Yahoo above.  For example, on ESPN at the moment (ADP changes all the time) I see Jacob, Collins, Jerami Grant, Horford, Portis,

Btw, Randle is gone before 60th picks on Yahoo and Espn

You literally provided the adp list you were using which was Fantasypros. Now you are changing it by saying you're using Yahoo and Espn instead. According to the first list there were only 3 shot blockers which obviously hurt your argument so clearly that is why you're trying to change the adp list you're using.

If you're going to go off Yahoo and Espn then that list is also very inaccurate because several of those adps are included with free public leagues where half the people don't know what they're doing and just use Yahoo or Espn's silly rankings. A competitive money league will not draft like that, they never do. There is no way this is new information to you. I am sure you are aware of this.

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Losing Robert Williams and Jaren Jackson in fantasy drafts is most likely gonna drive up Myles Turner's price in roto drafts. The only other good shot blockers in the top 60 would be Gobert and Porzingis. Blocks is going to be tough to draft this year.

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52 minutes ago, jay_00 said:

You literally provided the adp list you were using which was Fantasypros. Now you are changing it by saying you're using Yahoo and Espn instead. According to the first list there were only 3 shot blockers which obviously hurt your argument so clearly that is why you're trying to change the adp list you're using.

If you're going to go off Yahoo and Espn then that list is also very inaccurate because several of those adps are included with free public leagues where half the people don't know what they're doing and just use Yahoo or Espn's silly rankings. A competitive money league will not draft like that, they never do. There is no way this is new information to you. I am sure you are aware of this.

???

Fantasypros ADP is the average ADP between Yahoo and ESPN.  There is nothing preventing me to use Fantasypros if I want to look at both, or using Yahoo/ESPN individually. I also said "ADP changes all the time", as it should

52 minutes ago, jay_00 said:

If you're going to go off Yahoo and Espn then that list is also very inaccurate because several of those adps are included with free public leagues where half the people don't know what they're doing and just use Yahoo or Espn's silly rankings. A competitive money league will not draft like that, they never do.

Don't shoot the messenger here.  It does not matter what you and I think about Yahoo/ESPN rankings, it's what people are doing. And I don't have any data for a  competitive money league, so I will go with what I have

 

Rob Williams injury is affecting the price for shot blockers, and I still stand behind  my point "that you can find  plenty of positive value in both blocks and points after the 70th pick." 

That's all I am trying to say.

 

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21 hours ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

And we argued for 9 pages last season that Covington was either borderline or was droppable in leagues cause of his performance. Plus who is holding someone on their roster like Thybulle unless you in a very deep league like 16+.

In our league one team manager hold Thybulle whole season. It happens and it was 12 team league. He played for triple punt (points and two other cats, I don't remember). He finished third, but he would have won me 5:4 in final. Fortunately I didn't meet him in final. But the most important are not the names but: I don't think there is difficult to collect team which is able to make 25 blocks average even without 1+ blockers.

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3 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

Don't shoot the messenger here.  It does not matter what you and I think about Yahoo/ESPN rankings, it's what people are doing. And I don't have any data for a  competitive money league, so I will go with what I have

 

Rob Williams injury is affecting the price for shot blockers, and I still stand behind  my point "that you can find  plenty of positive value in both blocks and points after the 70th pick." 

That's all I am trying to say.

 

The thing is your point is wrong because of 2 problems. First, you're acting like that adp is what will happen in competitive leagues when it obviously isn't. A good owner isn't even looking at these terrible adps. The espn list is completely ridiculous. The Yahoo one is slightly better but still has Giddey at 55, Randle at 58, Gary Trent at 96, and Lowry at 100. I'm 100% certain I won't see those guys go anywhere near that in all my money leagues.

Secondly, based on this clearly wrong list you're using your point is still 100% wrong. You keep listing guys that will most likely not be on starting rosters to back up your point like Thybulle, Portis, and Herbert Jones. All 3 guys are most likely looking at a minutes cut this season due to roster moves or players returning from injury. These guys will most likely not be drafted by competitive players in top 100. Also, John Collins and Jakob are locks to be top 70 guys, especially now with Robert Williams down. There's no way you are not aware of that.

I listed literally 8-12 guys that can hit 18 ppg this year in the 70-100 range. All of those guys provide boosts in other cats. You won't find half that total for guys that block at least .9 a game that are actually reliable starters.  

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10 minutes ago, jay_00 said:

The thing is your point is wrong because of 2 problems. First, you're acting like that adp is what will happen in competitive leagues when it obviously isn't. A good owner isn't even looking at these terrible adps. The espn list is completely ridiculous. The Yahoo one is slightly better but still has Giddey at 55, Randle at 58, Gary Trent at 96, and Lowry at 100. I'm 100% certain I won't see those guys go anywhere near that in all my money leagues.

Secondly, based on this clearly wrong list you're using your point is still 100% wrong. You keep listing guys that will most likely not be on starting rosters to back up your point like Thybulle, Portis, and Herbert Jones. All 3 guys are most likely looking at a minutes cut this season due to roster moves or players returning from injury. These guys will most likely not be drafted by competitive players in top 100. Also, John Collins and Jakob are locks to be top 70 guys, especially now with Robert Williams down. There's no way you are not aware of that.

I listed literally 8-12 guys that can hit 18 ppg this year in the 70-100 range. All of those guys provide boosts in other cats. You won't find half that total for guys that block at least .9 a game that are actually reliable starters.  

I am having difficulties finding where you "listed literally 8-12 guys that can hit 18 ppg this year in the 70-100 range". Can you help me? Also, what rankings are you using?

Assuming I am  using "clearly wrong list" can you point me to the list that is correct? I am just trying to learn and improve my fantasy skills.

Again, I am working with data that I have. If you have better data to share that would be really appreciated

 

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