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Robert Williams 2022-2023 Outlook


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I'm not a fortune teller, but I have a feeling its gonna be complaining from ppl who draft him. And it won't be because of his games missed. He's just like prime fantasy Draymond Green in the sense that the volume hit you take on from drafting him in the 2nd / 3rd round is so massive that its hard to overcome. You'll really feel it when his peripherals don't show. Despite what you see on these forums and blurbs all the time about steals and blocks, points are the hardest category to be competitive in once its dried up.

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13 minutes ago, Trench Mob said:

Despite what you see on these forums and blurbs all the time about steals and blocks, points are the hardest category to be competitive in once its dried up.

This should be the first lesson in the "Introduction to  Fantasy Basketball"  course.   Add non existent 3s  and I can't see how he can be drafted in the  first  3 rounds.  You get significant value  in steals/blocks and you lose significant value in 3s points. Net gain is....?  

Let's  hear from "steals and blocks are so valuable" crowd

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Probably should have been avoided in the early rounds already given how unbalanced his stat profile is, but a big with a lower extremity injury/surgery(!) this close to the season beginning is a massive red flag. 

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5 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

This should be the first lesson in the "Introduction to  Fantasy Basketball"  course.   Add non existent 3s  and I can't see how he can be drafted in the  first  3 rounds.  You get significant value  in steals/blocks and you lose significant value in 3s points. Net gain is....?  

Let's  hear from "steals and blocks are so valuable" crowd

Yes, stocks have value.  Blocks are still one of, if not thee scarcest stat in hoops.  Rebounds have value.  So does top-5 FG% impact.  So does < 1 TO.  All this plays very well into punting assists or more naturally, points even! (*GASP*) A big that gives you all that without hurting your FT% is valuable.  
 
To me, this notion that all your early round picks need to score oodles is pretty antiquated.  Just like last year there will be plenty of + scoring in the 70-100 range if you’re looking for it.  
 
I’m dropping him down my draft board and hoping to see how rehab plays out.  It’s wait and see for now.  Glad my leagues don’t draft early because this type of news on one of your core players before the season even starts is aggravating. 

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6 hours ago, Trench Mob said:

I'm not a fortune teller, but I have a feeling its gonna be complaining from ppl who draft him. And it won't be because of his games missed. He's just like prime fantasy Draymond Green in the sense that the volume hit you take on from drafting him in the 2nd / 3rd round is so massive that its hard to overcome. You'll really feel it when his peripherals don't show. Despite what you see on these forums and blurbs all the time about steals and blocks, points are the hardest category to be competitive in once its dried up.

 

6 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

This should be the first lesson in the "Introduction to  Fantasy Basketball"  course.   Add non existent 3s  and I can't see how he can be drafted in the  first  3 rounds.  You get significant value  in steals/blocks and you lose significant value in 3s points. Net gain is....?  

Let's  hear from "steals and blocks are so valuable" crowd

Agree completely with both of you. I have multiple plans for the center position and none have him in it in rounds 3 or 4.

There is a start of (on my phone so can’t look it up well) but let’s say trae and harden or one of them and dame that can take him in rnd 3 and still be feeling fine but when taking Williams that early many will count on those elite blocks that a injury could be catastrophic so I personally just don’t draft players like him or with similar profiles with value mainly tied to 1 or 2 categories.

 

My last center plan is last resort and has worked but also has been a train wreck is in  say a yahoo pro (any league works just your last 2 picks plus bench size 3-4 usually are on centers) to start with 8 non centers then use the last 5 picks on the position and mix and match/burn and churn and hope to land a breakout and even if not the team could compete depite the bad centers if the top part of your draft do what is expected or better.

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2 hours ago, 80version said:

To me, this notion that all your early round picks need to score oodles is pretty antiquated.  Just like last year there will be plenty of + scoring in the 70-100 range if you’re looking for it.  

Using last year  BBM  9-cat, 12 team  leagues rankings,   to have positive value for a category player needs :
points -16+  
3PM  -1.6+
reb - 5.9+
ast - 3.6+
stl - 1+
blk - 0.7+
FG% - 47.4 +
FT% - 80+
TOs - 1.8 or less

Number of players ranked in 70-100 range with positive contribution in points (16+): 12  (Ingram, Russell, Beal, Wood, Norm Powell, Herro,  Kade, Kuzma, Fox, Brunson, Bay)

Number of players ranked in 70-100 range with positive contribution in blocks (0.7+): 12  (Jakob, Herb Jones, Draymond, Wood, Kaminsky, Mobley, Carter Jr, White, Thybulle, Mitch Robinson, Kuzma)

2 hours ago, 80version said:

To me, this notion that all your early round picks need to score oodles is pretty antiquated.  Just like last year there will be plenty of + scoring in the 70-100 range if you’re looking for it.  

To me, this notion that all your early round picks need to secure blocks oodles is pretty antiquated.  Just like last year there will be plenty of + blocks in the 70-100 range if you’re looking for it.  

 

Also, I don't think that a player can have top-5 FG% impact on 10PPG.  In my opinion top-5 FG% impact players  Jokic, Giannis, Sabonis, LBJ, AD.  You need to score lots of points to have a lot of  impact in FG%

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28 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

Also, I don't think that a player can have top-5 FG% impact on 10PPG.  In my opinion top-5 FG% impact players  Jokic, Giannis, Sabonis, LBJ, AD.  You need to score lots of points to have a lot of  impact in FG%

No, you just need to shoot 73% which he did last year to accrue fifth best FG% value per game, as per BBM.  
 

In roto a big that anchors FG% and blocks without hurting your FT% is the special sauce in a winning recipe.  🤌

The only concern is health.  

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It would be a big load on your C's that go 4/6 FG if you have guys like Harden or FVV plus other streaky shooters later in the draft that have to make up for points.

Of course sometimes he'll go 8/9 or 6/6 but other days it's 1 or 2 FGA.. at some point you need volume to anchor. There was a stretch last year he hovered around 20-22 mins, where his highest FGA was like 6.. mostly 2 or 3. Lots of fouls during that time as well.

I'd feel a lot more comfortable with taking Williams if I had my next pick sooner than later so I can plan out the FG and points situation/scarcity better.

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48 minutes ago, 80version said:

No, you just need to shoot 73% which he did last year to accrue fifth best FG% value per game, as per BBM.  
 

In roto a big that anchors FG% and blocks without hurting your FT% is the special sauce in a winning recipe.  🤌

The only concern is health.  

Not sure how 600 points can anchor your FG% in roto.  You need volume too, otherwise you will be weak in points.   Rob Williams is a very good,  useful player in fantasy.  But, in my opinion,  he is not worth a top 30 pick.

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2 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

Using last year  BBM  9-cat, 12 team  leagues rankings,   to have positive value for a category player needs :
points -16+  
3PM  -1.6+
reb - 5.9+
ast - 3.6+
stl - 1+
blk - 0.7+
FG% - 47.4 +
FT% - 80+
TOs - 1.8 or less

Number of players ranked in 70-100 range with positive contribution in points (16+): 12  (Ingram, Russell, Beal, Wood, Norm Powell, Herro,  Kade, Kuzma, Fox, Brunson, Bay)

Number of players ranked in 70-100 range with positive contribution in blocks (0.7+): 12  (Jakob, Herb Jones, Draymond, Wood, Kaminsky, Mobley, Carter Jr, White, Thybulle, Mitch Robinson, Kuzma)

To me, this notion that all your early round picks need to secure blocks oodles is pretty antiquated.  Just like last year there will be plenty of + blocks in the 70-100 range if you’re looking for it.  

 

Also, I don't think that a player can have top-5 FG% impact on 10PPG.  In my opinion top-5 FG% impact players  Jokic, Giannis, Sabonis, LBJ, AD.  You need to score lots of points to have a lot of  impact in FG%

Of those 12 players that have a positive contribution in blocks, 4 are bonafide scrubs that no one should start on a roto team in standard leagues. Furthermore, .8 blks or less is the bare minimum, that's not much of a difference maker and also not a lock to repeat that performance, so Kuzma and Wendell are out as well. So basically, that leaves 5 guys in the 70-100 range that are reliable in blocks. That's terrible.

However, there are 10-12 guys that can score at LEAST 18+ a game if you include Sexton and Keldon that will be available in 70-100 range. Heck, you can also make an argument for Markkanen there as well.

Clearly there is plenty of scoring in the later rounds and hardly any significant shot blockers later in the draft.

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6 hours ago, turner46 said:

 

Agree completely with both of you. I have multiple plans for the center position and none have him in it in rounds 3 or 4.

There is a start of (on my phone so can’t look it up well) but let’s say trae and harden or one of them and dame that can take him in rnd 3 and still be feeling fine but when taking Williams that early many will count on those elite blocks that a injury could be catastrophic so I personally just don’t draft players like him or with similar profiles with value mainly tied to 1 or 2 categories.

 

My last center plan is last resort and has worked but also has been a train wreck is in  say a yahoo pro (any league works just your last 2 picks plus bench size 3-4 usually are on centers) to start with 8 non centers then use the last 5 picks on the position and mix and match/burn and churn and hope to land a breakout and even if not the team could compete depite the bad centers if the top part of your draft do what is expected or better.

 

I don't know how you find the energy to continue to do the big men strat. The Center position is on life support. But if you find success in it, dont fix whats not broken I guess.

I want to try the big men strat myself. I did a few mocks. And I find myself depressed after the draft 😆. The strat is just not for me.

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One player's impact to shooting (FG or FT) is always questionable. It still depends on your whole team. Rudy Gobert has better impact (2,50 vs Time Lord's 2,16), but with him in my team I won last season 9 of 19 weeks in FG% category. One player's impact has been always over boosted here in Forums. Somebody said: if you have Robert Covington, you won blocks and steals every week. I had Covington two seasons and unfortunately I didn't notice such a "rule". Also in H2H sometimes happen that your categories total value is not matched by win/loss numbers. In one season I was second in total steals, but finished 10-1-9 by win/draw/loss. Therefore I have used to draft more versatile players and not 1-2 category wonders. If team is consistent the possibility to get "fair" win/loss final result is higher. Yes, Robert Williams finished 16th last season, but among 2nd round players I prefer to him all other 11 second round players (Tatum. Van Vleet, PG13, Butler, Porzingis, CP3, Booker, LaMelo, Haliburton, Gobert, Mitchell). Only CP3 due to the age is questionable.

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This type of player exists every year in the fantasy community without fail and I never touch them.  A low usage big with high blocks, and doesn’t crater your FT gets ridiculously overvalued every year. Noel, his last year in philly had a top 30 adp, Jarrett Allen sophmore year then Mitchell Robinson. Even Myles Turner post PG was being taken at the round 1-2 turn and he was a huge let down that year.

These things never turn out well because you’re drafting these bigs over bonafide stars in this league with secured roles and secure minutes. I’m sorry but there is a much bigger chance that Robert Williams is a bust than a guy like Trae/Booker/LBJ etc.

 

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4 hours ago, Trench Mob said:

 

I don't know how you find the energy to continue to do the big men strat. The Center position is on life support. But if you find success in it, dont fix whats not broken I guess.

I want to try the big men strat myself. I did a few mocks. And I find myself depressed after the draft 😆. The strat is just not for me.

Yeah it works for me but it also helps to play a fair bit of volume that I should hit on some late round guard breakouts.

I have looked into all the fantasy relevant guards and outside a few I diversify alot so I will have all sorts of exposure to the guards in rnd 6 and beyond. 
 

At Center and forward I’ve put alot of time in ranking and have my targets and probably more important my fades and stick to it. I overdraft rebounds and blocks and FG% (although my motley crue of guards can definitely ruin in) so that I can absorb a injury or two and so I can put literally 90% of the late rounds and the faab/waivers/free agency on guards/guard stats. I may miss some breakout forwards and big men but I’m fine with that and I find that more guards tend to breakout each year and also for the most part guards and wings tend to benefit much more from a injury then big men.

 

Also this is where the volume comes in handy, if I have a team that needs to look for big men help something went seriously wrong and likely has no chance so I just accept it.

If I had one team or were helping someone with their one team or one of their 2 or 3 I would never recommend it as it’s not fun to basically eliminate guards in the front half of your draft then essentially eliminate looking at/for bigs once the draft has ended.

 

I have no exposure to any guards in the top 60 at yahoo as of now (kawhi and og are F only at nfbkc have shares of them but through 8 teams so far I think I have exposure to all guards ranked 61-118 there’s 21 of them except Westbrook and then the next page 119-162 yahoo rank 25 more guards Oubre is a forward at nfbkc, I think Duarte is too, I have no Mathurin (may have to look into him) and no gary payton 2 so here again I have shares of 21 of the 25 but 2 of them are because they aren’t eligible at G at nfbkc. So with all that I should be able yo cobble together some teams with decent guards and if so you’re competing and if you hit a breakout or two it becomes lethal.

 

 

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You can't deny that blocks are the scarcest fantasy cat, but there's more in play.  I've heard many arguments from both sides, but I haven't heard anyone say that RobWill has only had one good fantasy year.  Granted, he's turning 25 this season, but cmon the sample size is too small.  And I agree it happens every year.  It was absolutely irresponsible to tout MitchRob as a second-round pick.  The same guys pushing for RobWill picked MitchRob on the turn of a so-called "expert draft" they did.  RobWill is the sort of guy you'd think I would like bc I play 9 cat roto.  But only one year of top 25 value, combined with injury history, it's a little reckless to pick him in the third round.

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7 hours ago, jay_00 said:

Of those 12 players that have a positive contribution in blocks, 4 are bonafide scrubs that no one should start on a roto team in standard leagues. Furthermore, .8 blks or less is the bare minimum, that's not much of a difference maker and also not a lock to repeat that performance, so Kuzma and Wendell are out as well. So basically, that leaves 5 guys in the 70-100 range that are reliable in blocks. That's terrible.

However, there are 10-12 guys that can score at LEAST 18+ a game if you include Sexton and Keldon that will be available in 70-100 range. Heck, you can also make an argument for Markkanen there as well.

Clearly there is plenty of scoring in the later rounds and hardly any significant shot blockers later in the draft.

If 0.8 blocks is the minimum, that is 14%  increase.  By the same logic, 18.25 points is the same minimum.
I would like to see the names of the 10-12 players that will score 18.25+ points that will be available in the 70-100 range.
Maybe I am looking at the wrong data, but I don’t see them at https://www.fantasypros.com/nba/adp/overall.php

Then we can discuss who is (or not) the lock to repeat that performance

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2 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

If 0.8 blocks is the minimum, that is 14%  increase.  By the same logic, 18.25 points is the same minimum.
I would like to see the names of the 10-12 players that will score 18.25+ points that will be available in the 70-100 range.
Maybe I am looking at the wrong data, but I don’t see them at https://www.fantasypros.com/nba/adp/overall.php

Then we can discuss who is (or not) the lock to repeat that performance

Kind of odd that you somehow think these adp rankings are accurate (Haliburton 26, Fox 40, Ja Morant 14, Julius Randle 50????), but somehow don't believe that Robert Williams and his 73 fg% wasn't the 5th best volume fg% in the league last year lol. Also, these rankings don't help your argument because there are even fewer shot blockers available in the 70-100 range.

But ok, fine let's go along with these silly rankings. There are still 8 guys that can do it: Jamal, Herro, Poole, Brunson, Sexton, Keldon, Barrett, Jalen Green. You can make a case for Michael Porter Jr being the 9th guy.

There are also a few borderline guys that can possibly get 18 due to their team's roster moves and age: Markkanen, Saddiq Bey, Kevin Porter Jr. Plus, Julius Randle is almost a lock to be available in the 70-100 range.

Also, about the blocks, Wendell didn't even get .8 and even though Kuzma had .9, every other season in his career he's had .6 or less. It's highly unlikely he gets .9 again. So again, that's 3 guys that help in blocks while there is more than triple that amount that can score at least 18.

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Jamal, Herro, Poole, Brunson, Sexton, Keldon, Barrett, Jalen Green. This is a solid list with 8 names.   Blocks with 5 names isn't that far behind.

 My point is that you can find  plenty of positive value in both blocks and points after the 70th pick.

 

https://basketball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/nba/draftanalysis?tab=SD&pos=ALL&sort=DA_AP&count=0

https://fantasy.espn.com/basketball/livedraftresults

your point that " there are even fewer shot blockers available in the 70-100 range." is also questionable. Just look at ADP for ESPN and Yahoo above.  For example, on ESPN at the moment (ADP changes all the time) I see Jacob, Collins, Jerami Grant, Horford, Portis,

Btw, Randle is gone before 60th picks on Yahoo and Espn

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