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Devin Booker 2022-2023 Season Outlook


fabrar
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Pretty much the "Old Faithful" of 2nd round fantasy options. 26/5/6 on good efficiency, a bunch of triples and around a steal per game. He's been putting up the same line for years now so maybe he's not the most exciting of fantasy prospects, but there is something to be said for reliability and consistency. I actually like him in the mid-2nd round over guys like AD, Kyrie and PG - he doesn't have their upside but he also doesn't come with their risks. And for my top 2 players, I prefer as little risk as possible. 

I also think there might actually be room for a bit of improvement here. He avgd close to 7 apg before CP3 came to town - and CP3 is now pushing 38, and I'd imagine a lot more missed games are on the horizon even though he's been relatively healthy the past few years. This should give Book a chance to maybe increase his assist numbers. The increase to 1.1 steals is positive, and if he can keep that up (or even increase it a little), I'd have no issue taking him in the early 2nd round. Again, the upside isn't as high as some of the guys in that range, but he's also not gonna give you constant stress like you would from owning some of the other dudes in the 2nd. His stat profile means that he fits in very well with pretty much any first round pick. 

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His value has improved with less responsibilities as a ball-handler and being able to fill the role of a true SG more since being teamed up with CP3.  He was not meant to be a primary play-maker (reminding myself of Jrue stripping him to help seal MIL’s title a couple years ago). The reduction in TO’s has  been a big factor in DB climbing the rankings and makes him a little more appealing for certain builds.  I’m not super confident with most options in the 15-20 range, but there is something to be said for dependability.  
 
Guys that I’d be weighing him against mid-2nd are Garland (my preference) and PG13.  I’m not passing on Hali, Dame, AD or LeBron in that spot to grab Booker myself.  

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26 minutes ago, Trench Mob said:

I still find him a tad overrated ADP wise. You can find almost identical production from Zach Lavine 2 rounds later. Sometimes 3 rounds later. 

I agree. I have the same issues with him 

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42 minutes ago, 80version said:

His value has improved with less responsibilities as a ball-handler and being able to fill the role of a true SG more since being teamed up with CP3.  He was not meant to be a primary play-maker (reminding myself of Jrue stripping him to help seal MIL’s title a couple years ago). The reduction in TO’s has  been a big factor in DB climbing the rankings and makes him a little more appealing for certain builds.  I’m not super confident with most options in the 15-20 range, but there is something to be said for dependability.  
 
Guys that I’d be weighing him against mid-2nd are Garland (my preference) and PG13.  I’m not passing on Hali, Dame, AD or LeBron in that spot to grab Booker myself.  

Isn't mid-2nd too high for Garland considering the Mitchell trade? I do agree that I'd rather have Hali or Dame over Book, but idk about AD or Lebron given their predilection to miss so many games. 

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1 hour ago, Trench Mob said:

Tbf, Booker stays on the court more often than those 2. Actaully almost combined lol.

NBA season 2022/23 has not started. We don't know how many games these players will play.

Edited by apatas
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OK, let's make it clear, how to divide players based on injuries. Everybody treat them differently, but I divide players on three groups:

1) Injured are players who are not ready for the start of the season.

2) Affected by injuries are players in the recovery phase. They have minutes restriction or/and not play in back-to-backs.

3) All other players are healthy, including Anthony Davis and Paul George.

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30 minutes ago, apatas said:

OK, let's make it clear, how to divide players based on injuries. Everybody treat them differently, but I divide players on three groups:

1) Injured are players who are not ready for the start of the season.

2) Affected by injuries are players in the recovery phase. They have minutes restriction or/and not play in back-to-backs.

3) All other players are healthy, including Anthony Davis and Paul George.

I think you need to google injury prone brother 

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1 hour ago, apatas said:

OK, let's make it clear, how to divide players based on injuries. Everybody treat them differently, but I divide players on three groups:

1) Injured are players who are not ready for the start of the season.

2) Affected by injuries are players in the recovery phase. They have minutes restriction or/and not play in back-to-backs.

3) All other players are healthy, including Anthony Davis and Paul George.

I think you have a misunderstanding of what we’re saying when we say injury prone. 

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Of course I know who is injury prone, but this player is not injured. I take injury prone players as healthy and only slightly I rank them down due to the history. Good example is Anthony Davis. He is ranked as 9th in my season prerank, but if he is completely healthy AD is TOP 5 player surely. It means I take into account his injury prone status, but not as much as other managers here. And also my philosophy is: everybody can get injured, also Devin Booker. I can't be sure that Booker will play more games than AD. This is probable, but I still treat them as AD is much better. Towns was also known as "ironman", but last seasons he have been often injured. And Lillard was. It can happen to everybody.

 

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20 hours ago, fabrar said:

Pretty much the "Old Faithful" of 2nd round fantasy options. 26/5/6 on good efficiency, a bunch of triples and around a steal per game. He's been putting up the same line for years now so maybe he's not the most exciting of fantasy prospects, but there is something to be said for reliability and consistency. I actually like him in the mid-2nd round over guys like AD, Kyrie and PG - he doesn't have their upside but he also doesn't come with their risks. And for my top 2 players, I prefer as little risk as possible. 

I also think there might actually be room for a bit of improvement here. He avgd close to 7 apg before CP3 came to town - and CP3 is now pushing 38, and I'd imagine a lot more missed games are on the horizon even though he's been relatively healthy the past few years. This should give Book a chance to maybe increase his assist numbers. The increase to 1.1 steals is positive, and if he can keep that up (or even increase it a little), I'd have no issue taking him in the early 2nd round. Again, the upside isn't as high as some of the guys in that range, but he's also not gonna give you constant stress like you would from owning some of the other dudes in the 2nd. His stat profile means that he fits in very well with pretty much any first round pick. 

It's interesting that you say he's consistent. His stat profile has remained consistent, but his rankings are anything but.  In 20-21 he ranked 75th.  The last two months of last season he was 7th.  Not much difference in the categories related to scoring.  Biggest difference is he got his TO down (not relevant for every format) but mostly he got his stocks up to 1.1 spg/.4 bpg.  That seems replicable so I think Booker could theoretically be underrated next year.  He's not someone I usually target but the more I've drafted the more I like him.   He's a relatively young/healthy guy who plays 35 mpg and has 32% usage and uses that usage efficiently and isn't injured.  

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On 9/20/2022 at 8:40 PM, apatas said:

AD is a monster! You never can compare him to Booker! Also I prefer PG13 to him.

AD TOTAL VALUE 

2021/22 season: 93rd - 9th round
2020/21 season: 135th - 12th round
 

Sooooooooo

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1 hour ago, Stefan said:

One thing is for sure AD is NEVER BUT NEVER really healthy

That is your opinion. What actually happens we will see. AD is a fantasy monster. I never count total value, I look only per game value. That is potential.

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32 minutes ago, apatas said:

That is your opinion. What actually happens we will see. AD is a fantasy monster. I never count total value, I look only per game value. That is potential.

Lmao my guy that is not an opinion, that is a fact

AD's last 4 seasons: 40, 36, 62 and 56 games.

That is the definition of injury prone and not really being healthy. 

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2 hours ago, apatas said:

That is your opinion. What actually happens we will see. AD is a fantasy monster. I never count total value, I look only per game value. That is potential.

@apatasThere is no other way to put it ... AD is definition of an injury prone player 

He's in the league for 10 years, and he ONLY had 2 fully healthy seasons

And btw if you only play h2h leagues and DON'T care about total value... you are wasting your time. If that's the case you just don't know how to play fantasy sports, and you're catastrophically bad at it

Tnx 

Bye

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The only time I had AD was the 2019-2020 season and he was relatively healthy that year playing 62 out of the 71 games (shortened because of Covid). He was trying to prove he could tough out his typical “AD going to the locker room out for the rest of the game” injuries and play in most of the games.

Call me crazy, but I really believe AD is motivated to do that again this year. So I will gladly take him over Booker in the second round despite the injury risk because if he can fix his FT% to his normal standards and plays, he is a top 5 player. Booker never has been, and will not be a top 5 player. And AD’s stat set is not easily replicated. Book’s stat set I can still find later (ex: Zach LaVine).

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2 minutes ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

The only time I had AD was the 2019-2020 season and he was relatively healthy that year playing 62 out of the 71 games (shortened because of Covid). He was trying to prove he could tough out his typical “AD going to the locker room out for the rest of the game” injuries and play in most of the games.

Call me crazy, but I really believe AD is motivated to do that again this year. So I will gladly take him over Booker in the second round despite the injury risk because if he can fix his FT% to his normal standards and plays, he is a top 5 player. Booker never has been, and will not be a top 5 player. And AD’s stat set is not easily replicated. Book’s stat set I can still find later (ex: Zach LaVine).

2019-2020    had a long break before the bubble.   This is the main reason AD managed to play 62 games

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38 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

2019-2020    had a long break before the bubble.   This is the main reason AD managed to play 62 games

Before the break, he played 55 out of 63. If I remember correctly I don’t think he was dealing with anything before the league was shut down. Of course we will never really know what would have happened had the season remained normal. But I don’t think we can say the break was the main reason he got to 62 given his mindset that year of trying really hard to play through stuff.

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1 hour ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

The only time I had AD was the 2019-2020 season and he was relatively healthy that year playing 62 out of the 71 games (shortened because of Covid). He was trying to prove he could tough out his typical “AD going to the locker room out for the rest of the game” injuries and play in most of the games.

Call me crazy, but I really believe AD is motivated to do that again this year. So I will gladly take him over Booker in the second round despite the injury risk because if he can fix his FT% to his normal standards and plays, he is a top 5 player. Booker never has been, and will not be a top 5 player. And AD’s stat set is not easily replicated. Book’s stat set I can still find later (ex: Zach LaVine).

Doesn't matter how motivated he is, his body will fail him like always 

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2 hours ago, Stefan said:

@apatasThere is no other way to put it ... AD is definition of an injury prone player 

He's in the league for 10 years, and he ONLY had 2 fully healthy seasons

And btw if you only play h2h leagues and DON'T care about total value... you are wasting your time. If that's the case you just don't know how to play fantasy sports, and you're catastrophically bad at it

Tnx 

Bye

I really don't care about total value. Actually you were the first person here who mentioned total value - as I remember it was somehow linked to Covington's value. I even didn't know how to calculate this value. But it have never influenced my results. I am not the best, but all six seasons when I have played in money league, I made playoffs. Win only one of six, but additionally 2nd and two 3rd places. It is enough to prove I can play, although it is always possible to do better. Anyway, every season starts from zero and that is my position. Injury history can affect my decisions only to a certain extent - for example if AD is TOP5 player, I draft him at pick 8-9. If Porzingis is TOP20 plater, I draft him at pick 30. But they all are worth to draft because they are really good basketball players. And last season I won the league with Porzingis in my team. Playing fantasy is complicated and various - there is not only one way to play as you think.

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1 hour ago, apatas said:

Playing fantasy is complicated and various - there is not only one way to play as you think.


This is true and everyone needs to accept luck/randomness can be big factors in deciding a champion.  I actually want to try something different and experiment with a team with more early round upside (and low floor) with no regard to risk in one of my leagues this year.  Talkin about stacking a roster with as many of AD, PG13, Khawi and Zingis as I can early — throw caution to the wind — then  filling out the rest with more reliable, consistently available players in the middle rounds.  Have no idea how it plays out but will be… interesting.  

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