Rhamondre Stevenson 2022 Outlook

[Pastor3]

3 minutes ago, ColoWrex said:

Likely nothing but worth watching:

 

 was seen hangin' wif the Raihhhduhhzz on the sideline - was heat related, it appears - 

 

[SadFaceHappy]

I've changed my mind on Rhamondre for this season.  Maybe my favorite late-mid round guy now.

From week 8 on (includes playoff loss to Bills):

10 games, 124+18 opportunities, 14 receptions, 585+108 yards, 4 TDs.  4.7 yards/rush, 7.7 yards/reception, 77.7% catch rate.

17 game projection (assuming same rates): 235 touches, 24 receptions, 1178 total yards, 7 TDs

And I do expect those rates will increase.  Give a little more balance to his touches, so maybe 50 targets and 200 rushes? 

39 receptions, 944+301 yards, 8-10 TDs...

[SadFaceHappy]

4 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

I've changed my mind on Rhamondre for this season.  Maybe my favorite late-mid round guy now.

From week 8 on (includes playoff loss to Bills):

10 games, 124+18 opportunities, 14 receptions, 585+108 yards, 4 TDs.  4.7 yards/rush, 7.7 yards/reception, 77.7% catch rate.

17 game projection (assuming same rates): 235 touches, 24 receptions, 1178 total yards, 7 TDs

And I do expect those rates will increase.  Give a little more balance to his touches, so maybe 50 targets and 200 rushes? 

39 receptions, 944+301 yards, 8-10 TDs...

Damien Harris from week 11 on (includes playoff loss to Bills):

7 games, 78+9 opportunities, 8 receptions, 412+76 yards, 8 TDs

11.1+1.3 opps, 1.1 rec, 58.9+10.9 yards, 1.1 TDs

From week 8:

9 games, 116+11 opportunities, 9 receptions, 522+79 yards, 10 TDs

12.9+1.2 opps, 1.0 rec, 58.0+8.8 yards, 1.1 TDs

Stevenson from week 8:

12.4+1.8 opps, 1.4 rec, 58.5+10.8 yards, 0.4 TDs

[BGDDYKWL]

Anyone starting to get a little worried about this offense? I had been targeting him but I'm starting to worry that this offense could be a disaster. The entire team really. That along with a potential even split could result in no fantasy production from anyone on this team. 

[Pastor3]

3 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Anyone starting to get a little worried about this offense? I had been targeting him but I'm starting to worry that this offense could be a disaster. The entire team really. That along with a potential even split could result in no fantasy production from anyone on this team. 

valid pernts. 

but i will still be looking to bag the kid in my money leegs - he has BOOM! potential in that area of the draft that few rbs down there offer. 

i gotta get in on this. 

[BrianM]

21 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Anyone starting to get a little worried about this offense? I had been targeting him but I'm starting to worry that this offense could be a disaster. The entire team really. That along with a potential even split could result in no fantasy production from anyone on this team. 

If you flipped their roster and offseason headlines with say, the Dolphins, we'd be picking them to win 5 games.   The only reason people aren't coming harder at them is the history and nobody wants to bet against Belichick. 

[SadFaceHappy]

1 hour ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Anyone starting to get a little worried about this offense? I had been targeting him but I'm starting to worry that this offense could be a disaster. The entire team really. That along with a potential even split could result in no fantasy production from anyone on this team. 

The offense is going to be horrible.  Stevenson is the only player from it I'd take, unless Harris fell a bit further maybe.

[FFCollusion]

15 hours ago, SadFaceHappy said:

The offense is going to be horrible.  Stevenson is the only player from it I'd take, unless Harris fell a bit further maybe.

You guys are freaking out over nothing.

Let's play a game.

More wins:

Patriots or Panthers (CMC 2nd overall)

Patriots or Titans (Henry 3rd overall)

Patriots or Lions (Swift 11th overall)

Patriots or Saints (Kamara 14th overall)

Patriots or Giants (Barkley 18th overall)

Browns? (Chubb 19th)

Chicago? Jets? Jacksonville? Seattle?

Do you guys really think the Patriots went from a top 7 offense last year, to a bottom 7 offense this year, just because they lost McDaniels?

I'm tired of hearing the whining, I need someone to put a number on it so I can quote you at the end of the year.  "Bad" isn't gunna cut it, give me a rank.  Worst in the league? Bottom 5?  Bottom 10?  Bottom half?

How bad are you predicting, quantifiably.

Edited August 25, 2022 by FFCollusion

[Big Nate]

15 hours ago, SadFaceHappy said:

The offense is going to be horrible.  Stevenson is the only player from it I'd take, unless Harris fell a bit further maybe.

I'm with @FFCollusion in that this offense will be better than you think (better than horrible). With Harris ADP dropping like a rock I'm almost ready to buy in on him too. It could be a straight up split committee like last year where both RBs are viable but frustrating at times/weeks.

Some good value with the RBs. Even better value is Meyers.

Edited August 25, 2022 by Big Nate

[SadFaceHappy]

22 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

You guys are freaking out over nothing.

Let's play a game.

More wins:

Patriots or Panthers (CMC 2nd overall)

Patriots or Titans (Henry 3rd overall)

Patriots or Lions (Swift 11th overall)

Patriots or Saints (Kamara 14th overall)

Patriots or Giants (Barkley 18th overall)

Browns? (Chubb 19th)

Chicago? Jets? Jacksonville? Seattle?

Do you guys really think the Patriots went from a top 7 offense last year, to a bottom 7 offense this year, just because they lost McDaniels?

I'm tired of hearing the whining, I need someone to put a number on it so I can quote you at the end of the year.  "Bad" isn't gunna cut it, give me a rank.  Worst in the league? Bottom 5?  Bottom 10?  Bottom half?

How bad are you predicting, quantifiably.

I'm not freaking out here, I just don't think the Judge-Patricia combo is going to be very good.  I've never been a huge fan of McDaniels, but he's at least mediocre and, you know, a single person.  If they'd just grabbed some middling also-ran OC I think they'd be ok.  I expect Judge-Patricia to be worse than mediocre.

Stevenson and Harris will be fine, though probably less efficient.  Hunter Henry will be Hunter Henry.  Beyond that, I don't think anyone will be reliable.  Seems like a tough time ahead for Mac Jones.

Edit:

"How bad are you predicting, quantifiably."

8-9 or 9-8.  Could hit 10-7.  But I haven't looked at the schedule.  Offense will be bottom half, probably in that 17-23 quarter.

Edited August 25, 2022 by SadFaceHappy

[SadFaceHappy]

21 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

I'm with @FFCollusion in that this offense will be better than you think (better than horrible). With Harris ADP dropping like a rock I'm almost ready to buy in on him too. It could be a straight up split committee like last year where both RBs are viable but frustrating at times/weeks.

Some good value with the RBs. Even better value is Meyers.

Harris is a very good player.  Don't like him as a 4th/5th rounder, but 6th/7th/8th?  Sure (same for Stevenson).  He'll get TDs, but unlikely to get to 15 again.  Jones is a solid QB, so it's not crazy to think he can keep the ship afloat.  Meyers I've personally never liked because he doesn't score TDs, but could be useful in ppr.

But I'll turn it around on you and @FFCollusion: 

What gives you guys confidence that the offense will be "better than [I/we/people] think" and what does that look like?

Edited August 25, 2022 by SadFaceHappy

[fruitjacket]

I get it's preseason.  It's ALL speculation at this point.

But I think some folks are getting WAY too far ahead of themselves.

 

[FFCollusion]

1 hour ago, SadFaceHappy said:

But I'll turn it around on you and @FFCollusion: 

What gives you guys confidence that the offense will be "better than [I/we/people] think" and what does that look like?

I did all the breakdowns 2 pages ago, but the short version is you guys are using the word "horrible" which to me means, bottom 8 in the league (25%)

They were 7th in scoring last year.  Top 10 in all of the stats fantasy cares about, and my confidence is built in that a single OC won't be enough for 20 NFL teams to surpass them. 5 maybe 10, sure. Maybe they drop to 15-16-17, but that just makes you middle of the road, average.  Not horrible.  There's a ton of room for them to regress and still be better than half of the NFL.

They added D.Parker.  Mac Jones 2nd year, Rhomandre second year, Henry's 2nd year, Jonnus 2nd year... Basically 

I mean, on the actual team, people who play football, where did the Patriots get worse?

I understand and agree losing McDaniels might hurt them, I'm willing to drop them a few spots for that loss, but how do we get from top 25% of the league, to bottom 25% of the league?  Is it entirely McD to Patricia?

Like I said, I understand some regression and a downgrade for the play calling, but where are the other 20 spots that you're dropping them coming from?  Are you balancing it with any progression for the offense, almost all of the key players going into year 2 together?

[wekko368]

59 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

I mean, on the actual team, people who play football, where did the Patriots get worse?

They may not have gotten worse, but this year's schedule is much tougher than last year's. 

[yossarian]

1 hour ago, FFCollusion said:

I did all the breakdowns 2 pages ago, but the short version is you guys are using the word "horrible" which to me means, bottom 8 in the league (25%)

They were 7th in scoring last year.  Top 10 in all of the stats fantasy cares about, and my confidence is built in that a single OC won't be enough for 20 NFL teams to surpass them. 5 maybe 10, sure. Maybe they drop to 15-16-17, but that just makes you middle of the road, average.  Not horrible.  There's a ton of room for them to regress and still be better than half of the NFL.

They added D.Parker.  Mac Jones 2nd year, Rhomandre second year, Henry's 2nd year, Jonnus 2nd year... Basically 

I mean, on the actual team, people who play football, where did the Patriots get worse?

I understand and agree losing McDaniels might hurt them, I'm willing to drop them a few spots for that loss, but how do we get from top 25% of the league, to bottom 25% of the league?  Is it entirely McD to Patricia?

Like I said, I understand some regression and a downgrade for the play calling, but where are the other 20 spots that you're dropping them coming from?  Are you balancing it with any progression for the offense, almost all of the key players going into year 2 together?

It's interesting you brought up scoring ranks last season. You know who was next to last, ranked 31st in the league in scoring last season? The NY Giants, coached by one Joe Judge. Do you know where Detroit ranked on that list for Matt Patricia's last season as their head coach? 32nd, dead last. These two offensive "masterminds" are now in charge of the Pats offense. The reason people are worried is because those two goobers are co-coaching the offense, and the preseason has done nothing to make anybody feel better about that unusual setup. All the offensive talent in the world won't do any good when Joe Judge is out there calling qb sneaks on 3rd down from his own 5 yard line. 

[Big Nate]

3 hours ago, SadFaceHappy said:

Harris is a very good player.  Don't like him as a 4th/5th rounder, but 6th/7th/8th?  Sure (same for Stevenson).  He'll get TDs, but unlikely to get to 15 again.  Jones is a solid QB, so it's not crazy to think he can keep the ship afloat.  Meyers I've personally never liked because he doesn't score TDs, but could be useful in ppr.

But I'll turn it around on you and @FFCollusion: 

What gives you guys confidence that the offense will be "better than [I/we/people] think" and what does that look like?

It comes down to me thinking they will be better than "horrible". What does that look like for fantasy though?

Because most people are out on the offense as a whole I think it leads to some very good value. While it is always a headache owning a Pats RB I think they can have value where they are going, especially with Harris dropping. Stevenson was always the value where he was at which is why so many have hyped him. He is now unfortunately raising in ADP.

But this team is still going to run the ball as much as they can. If Harris falls in your draft I'd gladly take him, especially if Stevenson goes first.

As for Meyers he finished as WR 30 in PPR last year and he is being drafted around WR50. Huge value. Even in half PPR.

So by the nature of everyone being out on NE there is value to be had. Mac showed some good stuff last year and he can build on that.

The only thing that concerns me is the "hype" on Stevenson and his rising ADP. Makes me want to jump on Harris if he keeps falling.

[FFCollusion]

1 hour ago, yossarian said:

It's interesting you brought up scoring ranks last season. You know who was next to last, ranked 31st in the league in scoring last season? The NY Giants, coached by one Joe Judge. Do you know where Detroit ranked on that list for Matt Patricia's last season as their head coach? 32nd, dead last. These two offensive "masterminds" are now in charge of the Pats offense. 

DeAndre Swift was the 10th best RB in PPG.  So you can say "all the talent in the world won't help" but explain why Swift was so damn good.  If Swift is RB10 on the dead last offense in the league PLEASE explain to me, why you're worried about Rhamondre in the EIGHTH round not being able to return his RB33 ADP and ranking.

Please, I'm all ears.  Make it make sense.

[BrianM]

21 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

You guys are freaking out over nothing.

Let's play a game.

More wins:

Patriots or Panthers (CMC 2nd overall)

Patriots or Titans (Henry 3rd overall)

Patriots or Lions (Swift 11th overall)

Patriots or Saints (Kamara 14th overall)

Patriots or Giants (Barkley 18th overall)

Browns? (Chubb 19th)

Chicago? Jets? Jacksonville? Seattle?

Do you guys really think the Patriots went from a top 7 offense last year, to a bottom 7 offense this year, just because they lost McDaniels?

I'm tired of hearing the whining, I need someone to put a number on it so I can quote you at the end of the year.  "Bad" isn't gunna cut it, give me a rank.  Worst in the league? Bottom 5?  Bottom 10?  Bottom half?

How bad are you predicting, quantifiably.

You're right in that it is wrong to damn the fantasy outlook for guys simply because the offense is potentially bad, but for me, that's not the only factor.    I ask myself how they'd overcome it. 

Coaching?   I'm not confident at all in Judgetricia, so that's another blow.  An up and comer at OC that has some wunderkind could change everything.  Two vet coaches wearing new hats is a tough sell. 

Elite QB play carrying them a bit, i.e. a rising tide lifts all boats?   I don't see it.  I'm fine with Mac Jones but I don't know if he's got it in him, not to mention there's nothing wrong with wondering if the coaches will even scheme for him to do so.    

A huge target or snap share having usage be the payoff?  Could happen, can't assume though.   You made the point above about Swift, and that's why I feel he was successful.  Tons of targets and catches to make him PPR gold, and it didn't matter that Goff sucked and their OC was meh.   capital IF New England chose to feed Rhamondre as such, then yes, the rest does not matter, even if the problems I fear all come to pass.   He'll blow away his ADP and you'll be right on.    The question is how likely is that, and what's the tradeoff in RS's ADP vs the likelihood he gets the snaps to pay this off.  

And lastly, an overwhelming talent in their backfield or receiver room that you just have to grab because the ball and yards will find him?  I like a lot of their guys here, but I don't see an all pro in this bunch.  

 

 

[herschel]

trying to figure out the pats rb room has always been a fools errand.  thats not to say there isnt value to be found, but anyone assuming they know how the situation will play out has never experienced the joy of owning a pats back.  

[JE7HorseGod]

Unless Damien Harris gets traded from the team in the next couple weeks I'm not seeing much opportunity here.

It's hard for me to imagine Harris not getting the GL if he is on the team given what he did last year.  It sounds like either Harris or Montgomery is going to be the pass catcher/3rd down back.

Like I get that some people feel like Stevenson's measurables are more favorable than Harris or what have you, but Harris got 58.3% of the Patriots carries inside the 5 last year.  That's a higher percentage of the team pie than David Montgomery, James Conner or James Robinson.  If Stevenson beat him on carries between the 20s, I'm not all that interested in that role.

[SadFaceHappy]

11 minutes ago, herschel said:

trying to figure out the pats rb room has always been a fools errand.  thats not to say there isnt value to be found, but anyone assuming they know how the situation will play out has never experienced the joy of owning a pats back.  

Last year wasn't too tough.  Harris was clearly going to be the primary ball carrier, though it was not known if he'd have a 3 down role, and some were hyping Stevenson to immediately replace him.  The season played out pretty much as forecast.

This year I think is fairly predictable too.  Harris will get the majority of a split, and Stevenson will get the passing work.

[yossarian]

22 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

DeAndre Swift was the 10th best RB in PPG.  So you can say "all the talent in the world won't help" but explain why Swift was so damn good.  If Swift is RB10 on the dead last offense in the league PLEASE explain to me, why you're worried about Rhamondre in the EIGHTH round not being able to return his RB33 ADP and ranking.

Please, I'm all ears.  Make it make sense.

YOU brought up the team scoring rankings, as I pointed out in the reply you quoted. Now you're moving the goal posts with "but...D'Andre Swift". Either the team scoring rankings are relevant or they are not. You can't say "they only count when they're in support of my argument but not yours". 

Please, I'm all ears. Make it make sense. 

[FFCollusion]

2 hours ago, yossarian said:

YOU brought up the team scoring rankings, as I pointed out in the reply you quoted. Now you're moving the goal posts with "but...D'Andre Swift". Either the team scoring rankings are relevant or they are not. You can't say "they only count when they're in support of my argument but not yours". 

Please, I'm all ears. Make it make sense. 

You brought up Patricia, you brought up the lions.  What I'm showing you is that it doesn't matter if you're dead last in the league in scoring, Swift, with Patricia, was a top 10RB.

I'm challenging YOU to explain why I'm suppose to care about whether the Patriots offense slides down the scoring ranks OR why I'm suppose to care about Patricia, if last year, the RB who was dead last in offense, with Patricia as his coach, was a top 10 RB.

WHY are either of these going to prevent Rhamondre from being fantasy relevant?

Why are you guys crying about how bad the Patriots might be?

Why are you crying about how bad Patricia's play calling might be?

You provided the perfect examples why neither of these matter. You blatantly showed neither of these 2 factors are enough to deter a RB from being a stud.

So what's left?  What else is there for you to use as an excuse that this 8th round RB is too risky.

You haven't made any point to support your side of the argument, every point you have made, has made my stance even stronger.

You've yet to provide a single counter point.

[Pastor3]

22 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

You brought up Patricia, you brought up the lions.  What I'm showing you is that it doesn't matter if you're dead last in the league in scoring, Swift, with Patricia, was a top 10RB.

I'm challenging YOU to explain why I'm suppose to care about whether the Patriots offense slides down the scoring ranks OR why I'm suppose to care about Patricia, if last year, the RB who was dead last in offense, with Patricia as his coach, was a top 10 RB.

WHY are either of these going to prevent Rhamondre from being fantasy relevant?

Why are you guys crying about how bad the Patriots might be?

Why are you crying about how bad Patricia's play calling might be?

You provided the perfect examples why neither of these matter. You blatantly showed neither of these 2 factors are enough to deter a RB from being a stud.

So what's left?  What else is there for you to use as an excuse that this 8th round RB is too risky.

You haven't made any point to support your side of the argument, every point you have made, has made my stance even stronger.

You've yet to provide a single counter point.

NVM

 

Edited August 26, 2022 by Pastor3

[Members_Only_76]

I think he’s a valuable flex option in 12 team ppr leagues. Maybe not a weekly starter but a solid ppr floor. James White is gone.