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David Njoku 2022 Outlook


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I’m a believer. TE takes time to grow into and he was so young and unpolished when he got drafted. His advanced receiving metrics are very encouraging with his PER numbers being on pace with the elite TE’s. If I miss out on the big 4 & Goedert, he is one of my targets in the later rounds.

 

It all comes down to Watson suspension.
 

And he is one of the best buys in dynasty right now. 

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6 hours ago, harck said:

Does Brisket throw to TEs?

fixed for accuracy  (or lack, thereof).

blurb regarding 2017 wif the Dolts:

Jacoby Brissett led the way amongst this group – he threw 105 of his 140 tight end targets to Jack Doyle who caught 78 of them for 649 yards and four touchdowns.

smokinmeats-zucc.gif

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  • 2 weeks later...

We could be looking at 6-12 games of Brisset 

On 7/25/2022 at 8:24 AM, Pastor3 said:

fixed for accuracy  (or lack, thereof).

blurb regarding 2017 wif the Dolts:

Jacoby Brissett led the way amongst this group – he threw 105 of his 140 tight end targets to Jack Doyle who caught 78 of them for 649 yards and four touchdowns.

smokinmeats-zucc.gif

Jacoby Brissett loves throwing to TEs that's for damn sure.

Njoku is more or less free right now and he's always had the athletic profile. I think there is some smoke here and I really like him as like a 2nd TE in a deeper league.

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6 hours ago, MingusDew said:

We could be looking at 6-12 games of Brisset 

Jacoby Brissett loves throwing to TEs that's for damn sure.

Njoku is more or less free right now and he's always had the athletic profile. I think there is some smoke here and I really like him as like a 2nd TE in a deeper league.

In a typical 12 team league (no TE premium), I am fine being the last team to pick one -- and getting Njoku...or maybe Fant or Irv Smith Jr (assumes Freiermuth is taken as the 9th - 11th off the board)

Even these guys merit potential consideration pending more camp & preseason news: Kmet, Logan Thomas or Engram.

If I don't reach for Pitts or Andrews (and I never do), then hello Njoku, Fant or Irv Smith Jr.

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Probably my #1 favorite late round TE for this season.  Brissett hyper targets the TE position when he plays.  

In 2017 he started 15 games for Indy.  Jack Doyle received 108 targets, good for a 22.8% target share.

In 2019, he started 15 games for Indy.  Jack Doyle got 72 targets.  Eric Ebron got 52 targets.  Mo Alie Cox got 11 targets.  The tight end position overall got 135 targets, good for a 27.6% target share.

In 2021, Brissett started 5 games for Miami.  In those 5 games the TE position received: 13 targets (40.6%),  9 targets (30%), 12 targets (30.7%), 12 targets (27.9%), and 12 targets (52.1%).  

Tight Ends were getting a large share in 2017 and 2019 while with Indy, and then during his 5 games in 2021 with Miami those target share numbers exploded, basically anywhere between 28%-50%.  Indy had Hilton and Miami had Waddle in those seasons as well, so it's not like the TE was the only weapon with either team.  

I imagine the gameplan with Brissett at the helm will be to lean heavily on the run game, but he's still going to throw the ball at least 25ish times a games.  If 7-8 of those targets every game are going to the TE, sign me up all day.  Plus there's also room for more targets in the event they start trailing or the run game isn't working.  Plus Austin Hooper is gone so the only worthy competition to Njoku is Harrison Bryant.  Bryant probably siphons a target or 2 each game, but I imagine Njoku comfortably sees 7 or more targets while Brissett is the starter.

Give me 7 targets a game for my TE all day long especially when they're the level of athlete as Njoku.  

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  • 3 weeks later...

I know it's based on last years numbers, but his strength of schedule is awfully good.

He's probably burned too many folks over the years, but still just 26--with insane measurables, I am really coming around to him being a great late RD with massively profitability.

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1 hour ago, ST. STEVEN said:

I know it's based on last years numbers, but his strength of schedule is awfully good.

He's probably burned too many folks over the years, but still just 26--with insane measurables, I am really coming around to him being a great late RD with massively profitability.

Agree - but even though I waited on TE in drafts, Freiermuth and Irv Smith Jr were there so I took them instead...would take Njoku if they were both gone.

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They paid him a ton of money 

Metrics are top 5-top 10 among TEs in various categories 

“Freak” athlete check box (Kelce - esque)

Brissett feeds the TE position … followed by a late season addition of Deshaun Watson 

Freak athlete, #2 option in pass game … metrics to support the breakout 

He was absurdly young when he entered the league … he’s flashed elite potential, the metrics are in place for a true breakout, and he’s going to be a focal point of the passing game

Kmet / Njoku are my late guys … I’m starting  to lean Njoku due to the better supporting cast and that freakish athleticism offering the occasional “blow up” 

Talent, targets, schedule are all in line for a guy who has actually been a top 10 TE already 

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The more I dig into the situation, the more I really love it. Every year a TE takes a leap from the pile of ADP in TE14-22 area to the top 5. I think he is going to.

Not new info, but:

  • huge contract that makes him top 5 money at the position
  • elite measurables and athleticism
  • no proven #2 passing option among receivers
  • great preseason usage
  • awesome schedule, esp when Watson returns

PLUS:

In the years that Kevin Stefanski has run an offense, he has shown a want to use the tight end position. Since coming to the Browns, his teams have targeted the tight end  13.4%, 29.9% and 28.5% in the past three seasons, respectively. If you go back to his final season in Minnesota with the Vikings, he targeted the tight end 22.8% (in 2018).

In his two starting seasons with the Colts, Brissett had a 30.3% and 29% target share, respectively, to the position. Last season, while starting four games for the Miami Dolphins, Brisset managed to find Mike Gesicki on 32.2% of his throws. This is to simply say, Brissett loves to lean on the tight end position. Whether it was Jack Doyle, Mike Gesicki or now David Njoku, Brissett makes the tight ends around him play up to, and in many ways over, their natural ceilings.

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Yup, this guy has the potential to jump into the top 12 conversation. Every year the a few back end tight ends emerge into the top 12. That's why if you don't get the top 3 (Kelce, Andrews, Pitts), history dictates to wait on TE. Hope this guy balls out because being able to stock up on RB/WRs while waiting for a TE will pay dividends.

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Can't imagine he isn't as least dropping 5 for 50 in week one, with the potential for much more. As long as he keeps pumping out double digit PPR scores I can live with that all day.

Guys I'm keeping my eye on otherwise:

Higbee, Engram, Likely, Irv Smith, Brevin Jordan, Logan Thomas

This really feels like a year where staying on top of the wire can definitely snatch you a top 10 TE. But Njoku's ceiling at the moment just seems a cut above anyone else in that range.

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4 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

I’m in on him this year but how in the world is this dude top 5 paid at his position? Is that a good signing or just a Browns signing?

Same and chalking that one up to typical Browns.  Have to expect a reasonable amount of stupidity from a team that listened to a homeless man's advice to draft Manziel.  Although if he pops off for 800 yards receiving this year, it may not look quite as bad.

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49 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

Already had Kmet, but drafted Njoku late because I just think he has more upside, at a less settled position, than the others available.  Now I just need to figure out which one to start this week.

Kmet looks like he is unfortunately still in a bit of a timeshare at TE, and the 9ers LBs can erase TEs

I honestly think Njoku has a legit chance to be a top 5-10 TE this year. 
 

Huge contract, freak athlete, target bombardment incoming … and he has been a top 10 TE before. Own Njoku in every league 

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End up drafting him as a late round flyer. I figure if you give a guy $14 million per year, it's for a reason, right? It's kind of ridiculous that Njoku's been in the league 5 years already and still really hasn't had much of fantasy relevance. And yet here we are hoping for more. At least he should be the clear #1 TE for once.

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1 hour ago, Jericho said:

End up drafting him as a late round flyer. I figure if you give a guy $14 million per year, it's for a reason, right? It's kind of ridiculous that Njoku's been in the league 5 years already and still really hasn't had much of fantasy relevance. And yet here we are hoping for more. At least he should be the clear #1 TE for once.

This is exactly my skepticism but I’m in. I dropped Hunter Henry for him because I refuse to roster two tight ends right now.

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