Gus Edwards 2022 Outlook

[vikesrube]

33 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Exactly.

I think what you're looking at here is something like Zach Moss.  There's a clearly defined role, and probably some stability, but if you want to pursue league winners you probably want someone who would clearly get a ton of volume on an offense that is having less success throwing it.

Not arguing and I can get down with the overall point, but find myself asking “such as”? (League specific I know)

[dudewithabadcat]

13 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Two years ago, I guess you are meaning?

He wasn't on the field more than about 40% of the time most of those games.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/E/EdwaGu00/gamelog/2020/

Or are you saying he could have been a contender if not for the ACL tear?  Because I think that may have been Dobbins first.  He's also back sooner.

In any event I don't think there's enough meat on the bone here to hope for much of a Renassaince this year.  Basically you'd have to have everything revert back to exactly how it was in 2020 (not happening, again, 33 points per game), and also for him to have a much smoother instantanous recovery from an ACL than most athletes have (which is pretty dubious given that he's already had setbacks).

There was a time I was excited about Gus back when the possibility that he would get there before Dobbins and that the 2019 Ravens were coming back, but it doesn't look like either is coming to fruition to me.

You have to remember that the 2020 Ravens featured Mark Ingram.  Obviously stats and numbers don't lie but you need to add the qualitative data as well to get the complete picture.  2021 was the year of the Gus Bus taking over the Ingram role and Dobbins was going to be that third down back / take over a drive here and there.  In the end, all roads lead to hot hand approach but I think we are heavily discounting the potential here. 

[JE7HorseGod]

1 minute ago, vikesrube said:

Not arguing and I can get down with the overall point, but find myself asking “such as”? (League specific I know)

I mean, Gus is owned in 12% of Y leagues.

Jaylen Warren in 9%.  Perine 6%.  Sony Michel in 4%.  I would say all 3 have more upside in the event of an injury.

Even if Dobbins got hurt the Ravens would still run a committee.

[dudewithabadcat]

1 minute ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I mean, Gus is owned in 12% of Y leagues.

Jaylen Warren in 9%.  Perine 6%.  Sony Michel in 4%.  I would say all 3 have more upside in the event of an injury.

Even if Dobbins got hurt the Ravens would still run a committee.

Gus is going right into the starting role once capable (week 5 might be a stretch...week 7 yeah). 

All of those other picks require an injury to relevance. 

[JE7HorseGod]

3 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

2021 was the year of the Gus Bus taking over the Ingram role and Dobbins was going to be that third down back / take over a drive here and there. 

Yeah that definitely feels like a distorted view of what was happening.

Dobbins was a 2nd round rookie in 2020.  The last game of the season he rushed for 160 yards.  He started a playoff game.

Edwards had a very brief window of time (like a week I think) after Dobbins tore his ACL but before Edwards tore his where he was deemed potentially taking over, in so far as the Ravens would allow "taking over" to occur.  But there was zero indication to my mind he was about to displace a healthy Dobbins in a hierarchy which he was now at the top of, due to draft capital and recent performance.

[JE7HorseGod]

3 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

Gus is going right into the starting role once capable (week 5 might be a stretch...week 7 yeah). 

All of those other picks require an injury to relevance. 

1.) Dobbins is on top.

2.) Dobbins is already playing.

3.) Ravens are throwing more than they used to, and it's working.

4.) Even when the Ravens ran a lot they ran a committee.

5.) All three of these players have coaches that have showed a greater disposition towards a bellcow role.

[dudewithabadcat]

*fart*
 

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by dudewithabadcat

[dudewithabadcat]

25 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

1.) Dobbins is on top.

2.) Dobbins is already playing.

3.) Ravens are throwing more than they used to, and it's working.

4.) Even when the Ravens ran a lot they ran a committee.

5.) All three of these players have coaches that have showed a greater disposition towards a bellcow role.

Eh. bellcow roles that require an injury. Tough to waste an active roster spot on a flier / hope and a prayer vs a bonafide addition to an offense.  Not necessarily my cup of tea and I’ve found more success not crossing my fingers for injuries. The beauty of this situation is that you can still maximize your active roster and hold Gus who will ply right back into an active starting role. (I say starting as in he gets 10 touches. I could give two ***** who gets first snaps)
 

Ravens are 8th in yards per game. I don’t care if that comes from, including Lamar. Those are ground numbers that will shift over time to whomever is in this backfield. They literally have no backfield at the moment. When Dobbins can show some resemblance of his ability to gain yards and the Gus Bus is back  this offense will be more stabilized and less pass heavy.  And / or the offense will be more adaptable and gameplay dependent (more likely). Either way. Getting a 1-2 combo at RB is going to open this offense up and it will improve the ground yards. 

[JE7HorseGod]

2 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

Eh. bellcow roles that require an injury. Tough to waste an active roster spot on a flier / hope and a prayer vs a bonafide addition to an offense.  Not necessarily my cup of tea and I’ve found more success not crossing my fingers for injuries. The beauty of this situation is that you can still maximize your active roster and hold Gus who will ply right back into an active starting role. (I say starting as in he gets 10 touches. I could give two ***** who gets first snaps)
 

Ravens are 8th in yards per game. I don’t care if that comes from, including Lamar. Those are ground numbers that will shift over time to whomever is in this backfield. They literally have no backfield at the moment. When Dobbins can show some resemblance of his ability to gain yards and the Gus Bus is back  this offense will be more stabilized and less pass heavy.  And / or the offense will be more adaptable and gameplay dependent (more likely). Either way. Getting a 1-2 combo at RB is going to open this offense up and it will improve the ground yards. 

Zach Moss types have a purpose.  But they aren't "the best stashes in the league" or whatever.

If Gus gets back he'll be serviceable.  That has value but let's not paint this into something its not.

[dudewithabadcat]

1 minute ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Zach Moss types have a purpose.  But they aren't "the best stashes in the league" or whatever.

If Gus gets back he'll be serviceable.  That has value but let's not paint this into something it’s not.

We definitely see him in different lenses. I’d argue that you are not accepting what he actually is.  There is more to it as well. He is more than serviceable, especially when the organization and coaching staff sing your praises and look highly upon you. That’s opportunity. If we look at this beyond talent, skill, and previous stats (which don’t predict future stats) there is a plenty of facts here that show he is going to get the opportunity. 

[dudewithabadcat]

I’d argue your previous post about other stashes are perfectly good Zack Moss types. 

[JE7HorseGod]

Just now, dudewithabadcat said:

I’d argue your previous post about other stashes are perfectly good Zack Moss types. 

I think that is because you don't know what a Zack Moss tpye looks like.

Gus Edwards did not touch the ball more than 16 times in a game the last full season he played in 2020.  Harbaugh has shown zero inclination to ride a bellcow since Ingram, and if anything almost everyone in Baltimore has identified Dobbins as the superior athlete.

Mike Tomlin, Zac Taylor, and Brandon Staley have all shown a proclivity towards utlizing a bellcow back if the situation call for it.  These backs are all the clear number 2.  They aren't recovering from ACL tears.  These are the types of situations whereupon a fantasy back can be a league winner.  Edwards situation is more "seviceable bye week fill in."

I'm not sure why you are pushing this agenda so hard that it isn't the case, with exception for the one week last summer where Dobbins tore his knee and Edwards was still healthy virtually everyone agrees this is Edwards most likely outlook.

[vikesrube]

43 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I mean, Gus is owned in 12% of Y leagues.

Jaylen Warren in 9%.  Perine 6%.  Sony Michel in 4%.  I would say all 3 have more upside in the event of an injury.

Even if Dobbins got hurt the Ravens would still run a committee.

Meh, that’s just personal preference. If you prefer to hang onto those guys and hope for an injury, I’ve got no problem with that. I just hate those dead spots on my roster, esp when byes hit. 
 

Warren is interesting, but the offense sucks and the stud he would be replacing is averaging 10 pts. Not exciting to me. 
 

Michel: yuck. One injury wouldn’t be enough to make him fantasy relevant. He would never take over the Ek role under any circumstances and he sucks and the gl back, even if he got it all to himself, is not relevant. 
 

Perine: I can see this as an option, but again, hoping for an injury seems like a fools errand. The most likely outcome is holding him for a number of weeks, getting sick of seeing the dead weight on your roster and releasing him for a shiny object, only to see Mixon get injured that week. 
 

Gus is by far the most talented of those mentioned and I think will have a role right away once he is good to go, on a good offense that has Lamar as the main rushing focus of the D. It will be a 2 man backfield once Dobbins and Gus are both back up to speed (if they get there). Their back now minus those 2 suck something fierce. An injury to Dobbins makes him extremely valuable. 
 

Of course there is the hurdle of coming back and being effective. But would rather take a chance on that type of player who should have some fantasy relevance on his own than just holding mediocre talent, possibly in poor Situations to boot even if you do get “lucky” with an injury.

[JE7HorseGod]

Just now, vikesrube said:

Gus is by far the most talented of those mentioned and I think will have a role right away once he is good to go, on a good offense that has Lamar as the main rushing focus of the D.

I'd say that's debateable, all three have had more substantial roles in offenses either in college or the pros at some point than Edwards has ever had, and have either superior or comprable physical attributes.

But more to the point, and what I think you guys are refusing to acknowledge, their roles could actually be substaintial enough to be RB1 types on a weekly basis.

Edwards doesn't have that kind of ceiling because that isn't how his coach uses backs.  Even if he did he still hasn't recovered from an ACL tear.  Even if he had the team is having immense success throwing the ball and there is no indication the "glory days" such as they were are ever coming back for RBs in Baltimore.

It's a lot like the Bills situation.

[dudewithabadcat]

23 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I think that is because you don't know what a Zack Moss tpye looks like.

Gus Edwards did not touch the ball more than 16 times in a game the last full season he played in 2020.  Harbaugh has shown zero inclination to ride a bellcow since Ingram, and if anything almost everyone in Baltimore has identified Dobbins as the superior athlete.

Mike Tomlin, Zac Taylor, and Brandon Staley have all shown a proclivity towards utlizing a bellcow back if the situation call for it.  These backs are all the clear number 2.  They aren't recovering from ACL tears.  These are the types of situations whereupon a fantasy back can be a league winner.  Edwards situation is more "seviceable bye week fill in."

I'm not sure why you are pushing this agenda so hard that it isn't the case, with exception for the one week last summer where Dobbins tore his knee and Edwards was still healthy virtually everyone agrees this is Edwards most likely outlook.

Interesting way of ending your point - which isn't the case but you seem to think it is. So, I'm not so sure why you are pushing:

1. Use an active roster spot on a highly speculative/non-proven player in case someone gets hurt.  Terrible advise heading into bye weeks

2. Utilizing historic stats that don't predict future stats in a season that featured Mark Ingram to highlight that Gus does not have significant value in an offense currently ranked 8th in rushing yards per game.  (And, when you shed that light on the situation, Gus was a very healthy fantasy asset to own, hence he was being in the 4-6th round last year).

I like my odds of winning this situation. 

 

[dudewithabadcat]

15 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I'd say that's debateable, all three have had more substantial roles in offenses either in college or the pros at some point than Edwards has ever had, and have either superior or comprable physical attributes.

But more to the point, and what I think you guys are refusing to acknowledge, their roles could actually be substaintial enough to be RB1 types on a weekly basis.

Edwards doesn't have that kind of ceiling because that isn't how his coach uses backs.  Even if he did he still hasn't recovered from an ACL tear.  Even if he had the team is having immense success throwing the ball and there is no indication the "glory days" such as they were are ever coming back for RBs in Baltimore.

It's a lot like the Bills situation.

Where we go separate ways immediately is that you are discounting time shares and only focusing on bellcows as the highest upside.  Players still need to play.  

[JE7HorseGod]

Just now, dudewithabadcat said:

in an offense currently ranked 8th in rushing yards per game.

LOL, so wait, what's the theory using this stat, they're going to stop letting the guy who is 4th in the league in rushing yards per game and might be the fastest player take off with it so they can give it more to Gus so he can do it better?

Or they're going to "save" Lamar's legs?

IDK you all are reaching.

Ok I'm gonna take off, I've said my piece.

[dudewithabadcat]

2 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

LOL, so wait, what's the theory using this stat, they're going to stop letting the guy who is 4th in the league in rushing yards per game and might be the fastest player take off with it so they can give it more to Gus so he can do it better?

Or they're going to "save" Lamar's legs?

IDK you all are reaching.

Ok I'm gonna take off, I've said my piece.

You really twist the way you use data to make the situation fit you.  You have not taken any type of qualitative data points into account.  

Point is using the 8th in the league in rushing is not to point out that those rushing yards are going to go to Gus but to point out that this team's success is based on the ground game.  You were really striving to point out that this is a more pass-orientated team when the data shows that is not the case.....again...skew as you go bro. 

[dudewithabadcat]

Man, I wish I could blindly look at data and not take anything else into account in my real job....damn...that would make life so easy.  

[JE7HorseGod]

Just now, dudewithabadcat said:

Man, I wish I could blindly look at data and not take anything else into account in my real job....damn...that would make life so easy.  

LOL.

What else am I not taking into account?

That you have him on your roster and you're trying real hard to trade him?

Because that seems like what this is.

Ok for real I'm out.  Enjoy your cheap shots and your "trade bait."  LOL. 

[vikesrube]

28 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I'd say that's debateable, all three have had more substantial roles in offenses either in college or the pros at some point than Edwards has ever had, and have either superior or comprable physical attributes.

But more to the point, and what I think you guys are refusing to acknowledge, their roles could actually be substaintial enough to be RB1 types on a weekly basis.

Edwards doesn't have that kind of ceiling because that isn't how his coach uses backs.  Even if he did he still hasn't recovered from an ACL tear.  Even if he had the team is having immense success throwing the ball and there is no indication the "glory days" such as they were are ever coming back for RBs in Baltimore.

It's a lot like the Bills situation.

College is irrelevant at this point. 
 

I’m not failing to acknowledge anything. The backs these guys are replacing are real life studs and not even RB1’s, and 2 of the 3 have proven to be mediocre at best talents. Michel will not have any relevance from a fantasy perspective under any circumstance, no matter how many njuroes happen around him. He is awful and is in no way a replacement for Ek. Best you can hope for is he falls into the end zone. 
 

Warren, again is on a terrible offense with tons of weapons around him.

 

Those guys don’t have RB1 ceilings under any reasonable scenario. Sure goofy things can happen, but you are making stuff up here to say there is a reasonable path to RB1 relevance, all they need is 1 injury.

 

Gus is not a hill I’m willing to die on. 

Edited September 26, 2022 by vikesrube

[dudewithabadcat]

1 minute ago, JE7HorseGod said:

LOL.

What else am I not taking into account?

That you have him on your roster and you're trying real hard to trade him?

Because that seems like what this is.

Ok for real I'm out.  Enjoy your cheap shots and your "trade bait."  LOL. 

Trade?  who said anything about trading?  And, to think my fantasy opponents are on Rotoworld Fantasy Football Forum taking sage advice from stat copy-pasters?  Nah dude...You are teetering now...couple more big lol's and i'm gonna think you have clown paint on your face. 

[dudewithabadcat]

2 minutes ago, vikesrube said:

College is irrelevant at this point. 
 

I’m not failing to acknowledge anything. The backs these guys are replacing are studs and not even RB1’s, and 2 of the 3 have proven to be mediocre at best talents. Michel will not have any relevance from a fantasy perspective under any circumstance, no matter how many njuroes happen around him. He is awful and is in no way a replacement for Ek. Best you can hope for is he falls into the end zone. 
 

Warren, again is on a terrible offense with tons of weapons around him.

 

Those guys don’t have RB1 ceilings under any reasonable scenario. Sure goofy things can happen, but you are making stuff up here to say there is a reasonable path to RB1 relevance, all they need is 1 injury.

 

Gus is not a hill I’m willing to die on. 

"Gus is not a hill I'm willing to die on"

Well said, but we are talking 'current best options'.  Not the greatest opportunity of a lifetime.  

[owenmills]

14 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

Where we go separate ways immediately is that you are discounting time shares and only focusing on bellcows as the highest upside.  Players still need to play.  

Timeshares are fine. Most team actually run a timeshare nowadays. The issue with Baltimore is Lamar is basically their RB1, so a timeshare behind that is pretty unappealing for fantasy. Last game JK had 7 carries and Hill had 6(to Lamar's 11). What exactly are you projecting for Gus when he becomes starter in week 7?

[vikesrube]

2 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

"Gus is not a hill I'm willing to die on"

Well said, but we are talking 'current best options'.  Not the greatest opportunity of a lifetime.  

I agree, and I’m grabbing Gus and holding where I can for a few weeks to see what happens because he has shown talent and skill at the NFL level and walks into a great offense. Not going to pretend he’s a sure fire pickup though.
 

But none of the others mentioned as alternatives have both of those things. 
 

So to me he is more interesting. And if nothing happens after a couple weeks, maybe I am more willing to talk myself into some of those other dodo’s mentioned.