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Mark Andrews 2022 Outlook


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1 minute ago, Stonej14 said:

Well with the drake signing news I’d imagine the ravens don’t trust JK yet. I’d imagine Lamar is likely to pass a lot again this year. Which bodes well for andrews. Hopefully another big year 

Yup.

IMO the margin between Kelce and Andrews now is razor thin and you can justify drafting Andrews TE1 pretty easily given the age difference.

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3 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

153t, 107r, 1361y, 9td

TH+JJ starts (5): 54t, 40r, 508y, 3td

/game: 10.8t, 8.0r, 101.6y, 0.6td

LJax starts (12): 99t, 67r, 853y, 6td

/game: 8.3t, 5.6r, 71.1y, 0.5td

×17: 141t, 95r, 1209y, 9td

Ok, still a 2/3 turn pick.

Correct.  I feel like folks are interpreting this as a "Huntley helps Andrews to better stats" thing.  I mean, slightly, but he still would have been TE1 last year with Jackson's starts prorated.

The real deal is that they didn't have a legit RB, and the offense ran through Andrews and the QB (and Brown, who has been offset by Bateman).  And with Dobbins ACL/MCL tear recovery and Edwards on PUP that's likely to continue, at least for the first month or two and possibly the whole season.

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Now that all my drafts are done I'm ready to talk about Mark Andrews.

Anybody notice how the Ravens RBs are still not healthy?

I get that "they said they wanted to look more like the 2019 team" and perhaps they'll find a way to, but I just don't see how that is possible given how they are currently constituted.

My man just had the fourth most targets and third most yards by a tight end since targets started being recorded as a statistic.  He's going to he 28, which in tight end years is just reaching your prime.

I dunno, maybe you are drafting at the ceiling, but what if there's even more here?

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12 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Now that all my drafts are done I'm ready to talk about Mark Andrews.

Anybody notice how the Ravens RBs are still not healthy?

I get that "they said they wanted to look more like the 2019 team" and perhaps they'll find a way to, but I just don't see how that is possible given how they are currently constituted.

Teams always say they want to be an older, better version of themselves. So do I!

I agree they’ll still need to pepper Andrews with targets. Last year may have been the peak but I still got Andrews penciled in for 80 rec, 1000 yds, 8 TD.

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25 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

Teams always say they want to be an older, better version of themselves. So do I!

I agree they’ll still need to pepper Andrews with targets. Last year may have been the peak but I still got Andrews penciled in for 80 rec, 1000 yds, 8 TD.

Last year Andrews paced for 87 rec, 1,140 yards, 8 TDs in his games with Lamar.  He obviously benefited greatly from Huntley (Andrews was just under 50% of Huntley's total passing yardage!).

The amount of regression from last years numbers likely depends on how much Lamar is going to throw this year.  Last year it was 260 yards/game.  His prior career high was just over 200/game.  I'm sure he'll be above that.  But let's say at 260 Andrews would achieve the above stats.  Whereas at 200 yards/game from Lamar, it could be more like 67 catches 880 yards...and TDs would probably still be similar.  

I think your projection is a reasonable middle ground here on what he can achieve assuming Lamar is throwing for about 230 yards/game.  Of course Lamar may rely on him more with Hollywood gone.  We'll have to see how it shakes out.

edit: my different numbers from SadHappy above is because Lamar started a game and threw 4 passes, then left for Huntley.  Andrews caught a TD in this game, from Huntley.

Edited by Illusion_J
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13 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Now that all my drafts are done I'm ready to talk about Mark Andrews.

Anybody notice how the Ravens RBs are still not healthy?

I get that "they said they wanted to look more like the 2019 team" and perhaps they'll find a way to, but I just don't see how that is possible given how they are currently constituted.

My man just had the fourth most targets and third most yards by a tight end since targets started being recorded as a statistic.  He's going to he 28, which in tight end years is just reaching your prime.

I dunno, maybe you are drafting at the ceiling, but what if there's even more here?

Small correction, he turned 27 yesterday when you wrote this.

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13 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Now that all my drafts are done I'm ready to talk about Mark Andrews.

Anybody notice how the Ravens RBs are still not healthy?

I get that "they said they wanted to look more like the 2019 team" and perhaps they'll find a way to, but I just don't see how that is possible given how they are currently constituted.

My man just had the fourth most targets and third most yards by a tight end since targets started being recorded as a statistic.  He's going to he 28, which in tight end years is just reaching your prime.

I dunno, maybe you are drafting at the ceiling, but what if there's even more here?

Bingo.

Ravens went from 400 passes/season (25/game) in LJax's second and third years to 600 last year (32/game for Lamar), so there's a wide range in between. 

Key factors were going from 2 or 3 healthy, above average RBs to practice squad guys and street free agents, and the defense dropping from top 3 to 20th or so.

Not sure how the defense will work out this year.  Probably won't be bottom third again, but I'm not confident they all of a sudden jump back up to top 3.

You're right about the RBs.  They're not in good shape, even if Dobbins is able to go week 1.  Edwards is out indefinitely, Dobbins is probably going to be hesitant for at least the first half of the season, and Mike Davis + Kenyan Drake is barely an upgrade over Latavius Murray + Tyson Williams + Devonta Freeman. 

Here's the interesting thing about the one RB they went out and got in free agency, Mike Davis: the thing he does best is pass pro.  He's not the runner Sony or Damien Williams or Melvin Gordon is, but he is a top tier pass blocker.

I think Baltimore realizes that they're not going to be able to just run mediocre or sub mediocre RBs out there 30 times/game and move the ball effectively.

Lamar missed a third of the season due to injury.  How much is he going to run the ball?  His attempts/game increased slightly from 2020, and he got hurt.  Still, maybe he runs 10 times/game.  Give Dobbins 15 rushes/game (250+ season pace).  25/60 plays accounted for.  35 snaps left to pass or hand off to Davis/Drake.

I don't think we're going back to 25 passes/game.  Maybe 30 in 2022.  Andrews had a 26% target share with Jackson.  If that remains consistent, he should see 8 t/g.  67% completion Lamar to Andrews, so 5.4 rec/g.  12.7 y/r × 5.4 r/g = 68.6 y/g.

17 game pace 92r/136t, 1168 yards, 8-10 TDs.

Borderline WR1/2 in your TE spot as a conservative estimate. 

 

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27 minutes ago, this guy right here said:

Not likely.

 

 

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Likely should be owned not just as a handcuff. He's really good. Mandrews is the best though. Watching them in person from up close he looks like a man playing with kids, it seems like they should just force him the ball every play. You can't feel his real life monstrosity on TV

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53 minutes ago, herschel said:

Any Andrews owners handcuffing him with Likely?

I mentioned this in the Likely thread - I think he gets a bit of a boost if Andrews goes down but he won't see the 85% snaps that Andrews does. The offense does like using the TE position so I think he will need to be rostered if Andrews gets hurt but I think we need to temper expectations - he is still a rookie.

He does have potential upside but I think it will be hit or miss if he can produce consistently each game. I have him and Andrews in dynasty but not sure how confident I would be rolling him out each week. I'd do it but with reservation. 

I think Likely is the 3rd or 4th option at best in an offense that doesn't want to pass it a ton.

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17 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

I mentioned this in the Likely thread - I think he gets a bit of a boost if Andrews goes down but he won't see the 85% snaps that Andrews does. The offense does like using the TE position so I think he will need to be rostered if Andrews gets hurt but I think we need to temper expectations - he is still a rookie.

He does have potential upside but I think it will be hit or miss if he can produce consistently each game. I have him and Andrews in dynasty but not sure how confident I would be rolling him out each week. I'd do it but with reservation. 

I think Likely is the 3rd or 4th option at best in an offense that doesn't want to pass it a ton.

right, but that being said, if andrews were injured and had to miss any time, do you think likely would be better than most of the ww tight end options (kmet, tonyan, irv smith, etc).  my guess would be yes.....

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