Jump to content
NBC Sports EDGE Forums

Mark Andrews 2022 Outlook


Recommended Posts

Mark Andrews led all TEs in targets, receptions, yards, and TDs last year. (Tie w/Kelce)

He scored 297 fantasy points. That would be 4th among RBs, and 7th among WRs.  Only 9 players outscored him, and he's being drafted 23rd overall as of today.

His 154 targets would rank 9th among WRs.

His 104 catches would rank T5th among WRs.

There's some fear about the Ravens reverting to a 2019 run heavy offense, which is fine. In 2019 Andrews was 5th overall TE, and also 5th in PPG, pacing 111 targets, 72 catches, 966 yards, and 11 TDs. I'm a very strong proponent of elite TEs in fantasy, and Andrews had nearly a record breaking year for TEs.  He's more likely to regress to the mean, but in 19 and 20, he was very respectable.  You can manipulate the loss of Hollywood to his advantage or detriment depending on your angle.

Kelce turns 33 this year and lost Hill, which you can also spin either way.  Andrews is only 26.  Kittle is 28 and has had a handful of injuries it feels like.  Waller had a down year and they acquired D.Adams.

There's a decent amount of uncertainty in the top 5 TEs this year, Pitts is probably the only one free of warts, as Mariota's track record of TE production with Delanie Walker was very encouraging to me, and rookie TEs who succeed the way he did, are usually indicative of greatness to come.

I think Kelce has earned his throne among TEs until proven otherwise, given 6 years of dominance (across all positions) but every year you start to fear the cliff a little more, and a little more.  This might be the last year I'm willing to invest, and try to subscribe to the "1 year early" mentality.

Andrews is at #2 for me, tiered with Pitts, Kittle, and Waller.

There's only 10RBs and 6WRs I'd draft over Andrews, plus Kelce.  So he's 18th overall for me, but opportunity cost leads me to believe it's not a sound investment.  Based on Kittle, Pitts, and Waller being available at least 1, often 2 full rounds after him, it's likely a better overall team if you can wait 1 or 2 rounds and get one of those 3 guys in the same tier for cheaper, and take the 2nd round WR\RB of your choice.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

Mark Andrews led all TEs in targets, receptions, yards, and TDs last year. (Tie w/Kelce)

He scored 297 fantasy points. That would be 4th among RBs, and 7th among WRs.  Only 9 players outscored him, and he's being drafted 23rd overall as of today.

His 154 targets would rank 9th among WRs.

His 104 catches would rank T5th among WRs.

There's some fear about the Ravens reverting to a 2019 run heavy offense, which is fine. In 2019 Andrews was 5th overall TE, and also 5th in PPG, pacing 111 targets, 72 catches, 966 yards, and 11 TDs. I'm a very strong proponent of elite TEs in fantasy, and Andrews had nearly a record breaking year for TEs.  He's more likely to regress to the mean, but in 19 and 20, he was very respectable.  You can manipulate the loss of Hollywood to his advantage or detriment depending on your angle.

Kelce turns 33 this year and lost Hill, which you can also spin either way.  Andrews is only 26.  Kittle is 28 and has had a handful of injuries it feels like.  Waller had a down year and they acquired D.Adams.

There's a decent amount of uncertainty in the top 5 TEs this year, Pitts is probably the only one free of warts, as Mariota's track record of TE production with Delanie Walker was very encouraging to me, and rookie TEs who succeed the way he did, are usually indicative of greatness to come.

I think Kelce has earned his throne among TEs until proven otherwise, given 6 years of dominance (across all positions) but every year you start to fear the cliff a little more, and a little more.  This might be the last year I'm willing to invest, and try to subscribe to the "1 year early" mentality.

Andrews is at #2 for me, tiered with Pitts, Kittle, and Waller.

There's only 10RBs and 6WRs I'd draft over Andrews, plus Kelce.  So he's 18th overall for me, but opportunity cost leads me to believe it's not a sound investment.  Based on Kittle, Pitts, and Waller being available at least 1, often 2 full rounds after him, it's likely a better overall team if you can wait 1 or 2 rounds and get one of those 3 guys in the same tier for cheaper, and take the 2nd round WR\RB of your choice.

Great post as always FFC, and I agree with everything you say about Andrews on a relative scale.  He's pretty easily TE2 this year for me, and he's much closer to #1 than he is to #3.  

Just to add on to what you provided: You outlined in 2019 his stats, which would have given him 234.6 PPR points.  I recognize those stats are "paced" to account for a full season, given he missed a game.  But even if we use those stats and the 234.6 points, he would have been outscored by 11 RBs and 13 WRs, just to give people a similar "scale" that you referenced about his performance in 2021.  If we assume people subscribe to the idea QBs aren't worth a draft pick in the first few rounds, that would put Andrews as the 25th player overall, which is right where his ADP is at the moment.  Even in 2020, he was pretty much right in line with his 2019 stats, give or take a few yards.  I'm happy to make the pick at that cost because you're most likely, at worst, getting a fair return on ADP.  And if we get a scenario where the Ravens are more "pass heavy" than we expect, or even just more-so than 2019 and 2020, he has some ceiling equity where he can still outperform his ADP, as we saw last season.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He's fascinating to me.  There's two factors that scare me at his cost.

1.) As you say, the RBs will presumably be healthier because it is virtually impossible for them to be less healthy.  Bateman I believe typically makes his catches closer to the LOS than did Hollywood.  Does the spacing of the offense beating tighter effect his role on the offense?  Does he play as well when there is more traffic near the LOS?

2.) There was a slight decline from 2019 to 2020, what caused it, and is it possible we see a repeat carrying over from 2021 to 2022?

I'm not expecting answers to these questions, just explaining some concerns which may lead me to think that he isn't a top target of mine near the 2/3 turn.

That and Pitts in the 3rd seems like he is in primo position.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...

I dug into Mandrews a little bit and I do not like what I found. 

Overall Mandrews year was phenomenal:

153 tar, 107 rec, 1361 yards, 9 TD

Insane production from a TE.

However, Lamar Jackson missed nearly 6 games last year (5 DNP, 1 game 4 passes 17 yards then out pretty much didn't play).

So I wanted to see the split on how Mandrews produced with Lamar and without and what I found was appalling and made my stomach turn. 

11 Games with Lamar:

88 tar, 56 rec, 738 yd, 5 TD

Per game: 8 tar, 5.1 rec, 67.1 yd, 0.5 TD

6 Games WITHOUT Lamar:

65 tar, 51 rec, 623 yd, 4 TD

Per game: 10.8 tar, 8.5 rec, 103.8 yd, 0.67 TD

 

His production was significantly skewed with Huntley/Johnson feeding him vs Lamar when he was on the field. 

With Lamars per game figures he still produces 86 rec, 1140 yd, 7.7 TD which is still a great year don't get me wrong but it is significantly different than what we saw last year when Lamar went down. 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 3
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, StevieStats said:

I dug into Mandrews a little bit and I do not like what I found. 

Overall Mandrews year was phenomenal:

153 tar, 107 rec, 1361 yards, 9 TD

Insane production from a TE.

However, Lamar Jackson missed nearly 6 games last year (5 DNP, 1 game 4 passes 17 yards then out pretty much didn't play).

So I wanted to see the split on how Mandrews produced with Lamar and without and what I found was appalling and made my stomach turn. 

11 Games with Lamar:

88 tar, 56 rec, 738 yd, 5 TD

Per game: 8 tar, 5.1 rec, 67.1 yd, 0.5 TD

6 Games WITHOUT Lamar:

65 tar, 51 rec, 623 yd, 4 TD

Per game: 10.8 tar, 8.5 rec, 103.8 yd, 0.67 TD

 

His production was significantly skewed with Huntley/Johnson feeding him vs Lamar when he was on the field. 

With Lamars per game figures he still produces 86 rec, 1140 yd, 7.7 TD which is still a great year don't get me wrong but it is significantly different than what we saw last year when Lamar went down. 

I’ve been saying this since last year actually. 
 

Lamar’s most career passing attempts is 401. Last year in 11 games he was at 380. That’s why andrews was pumped up last year.. if we look at the games he played with Lamar and his 380 attempts andrews was at 56 catches 88 targets 5 TDs and 740 yards.. looks a lot like his previous seasons all the sudden doesn’t it. 
 

if Lamar reverts back to passing it 404 times this entire season then andrews stats will likely revert back to what they were as well. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, dschddny said:

would you take him in redraft late 2nd or early 3rd?  Debating doing that or Kittle/Waller late 4th/early 5th!

I wouldn’t because I think the ravens are going back to passing it 400 times a season. He’ll need to be hyper efficient with TDS or have a 30% share of the passing game to be worth the TE2

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/19/2022 at 10:14 AM, Stonej14 said:

I’ve been saying this since last year actually. 
 

Lamar’s most career passing attempts is 401. Last year in 11 games he was at 380. That’s why andrews was pumped up last year.. if we look at the games he played with Lamar and his 380 attempts andrews was at 56 catches 88 targets 5 TDs and 740 yards.. looks a lot like his previous seasons all the sudden doesn’t it. 
 

if Lamar reverts back to passing it 404 times this entire season then andrews stats will likely revert back to what they were as well. 

So in 17 games that would have been 587 - well above 404. I do believe BAL wants to run more - last year was a bit of an outlier. Also BAL defense sucked last year and they had to play from behind a bunch which also helped.

Having said that Andrews keeps getting better each year. He is now in his prime. He is also the #1 target for this offense - very much Kelce-ish. Fade Andrews at your own risk. The only question is his ADP and where he is being drafted. I'm happy taking him at the end of the 2nd or early third if he somehow slips. 

Amazing people looking to make this more difficult than it is.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

I wouldn’t because I think the ravens are going back to passing it 400 times a season. He’ll need to be hyper efficient with TDS or have a 30% share of the passing game to be worth the TE2

Andrews had 100 targets and 10 TDs in 2019 - his second year in the league when Lamar threw it 400 times. 

I expect Andrews to get over 100 targets this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Big Nate said:

Andrews had 100 targets and 10 TDs in 2019 - his second year in the league when Lamar threw it 400 times. 

I expect Andrews to get over 100 targets this year.

Yea that year lamar threw 36 TDs  and rookie Hollywood who didn’t play any training camp or preseason because he was coming off a foot injury was the WR1 on the team. Andrews was the unquestioned #1 on the team. Since then brown and him have been neck and neck in targets this the dip in andrews stats in 2020. They only bounced back in 2021 because Lamar was on pace to pass 580 times. 
 

andrews on 100 targets only got 850 yards. Of the 36 passing TDs he grabbed 27% of them. and finished with 11ppg in half PPR. TE3 which is good but not 2nd round draft capital good. 
 

If Lamar goes back to 404 attempts and only passes for 26 TDs like he was on pace for in 2020 and 2021 idk if andrews is going to grab 10 of those that’s 38% of them.. Hell if he gets 26% of them again he’ll get 7 TDs .. which is dalton schultz numbers. 
 

Unlike 2019 the ravens have a WR1 who will take targets away too.. i agree with you that andrews is an amazing player top 3 kinda guy. But if the opportunity isn’t there it doesn’t matter. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

404 is way too low a barometer for that passing offense even if they revert to that scheme.  Remember that offense was rolling so much that Lamar ended up sitting out what, like 5 quarters worth or something wild like that?

Edited by Illusion_J
Link to comment
Share on other sites

What the heck is going on in this thread and in Bateman's thread. Makes my head explode. Lamar doesn't check down to RBs like some QBs do. So that means he's going to use the WRs and TEs or take off running. I do believe they want Lamar to run a bit less and try to keep him healthy for the whole season. There is literally only 1 other WR healthy right now.

Lamar has grown as a passer. Andrews has grown as a TE. Andrews has finished 1, 6 and 5 the last 3 years. 2019 Andrews plays maybe 50% of the snaps (rough estimate). 2020 Andrews plays 65-70%.  Last year Andrews gets into nearly a full time role playing 80% and finishes as the TE1.  He became a focus of the passing game especially in the red zone.

Even if Lamar only throws it 400 times (he's going to throw it more than that) Hollywood is gone and that leaves Bateman (who I also really like this year). If you go read the Bateman thread no one likes him. People don't see him getting 120-130 targets. People think he's only getting 100 at best. So that leaves 300 to go around.

Who is catching these 300 passes?

Moreover if Lamar gets hurt again Huntley goes in and he loves himself some Andrews.

Edited by Big Nate
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Illusion_J said:

404 is way too low a barometer for that passing offense even if they revert to that scheme.  Remember that offense was rolling so much that Lamar ended up sitting out what, like 5 quarters worth or something wild like that?

The next season they passed less. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

Last year Andrews gets into nearly a full time role playing 80% and finishes as the TE1.  He became a focus of the passing game especially in the red zone.

Even if Lamar only throws it 400 times (he's going to throw it more than that) Hollywood is gone and that leaves Bateman (who I also really like this year). If you go read the Bateman thread no one likes him. People don't see him getting 120-130 targets. People think he's only getting 100 at best. So that leaves 300 to go around.

Who is catching these 300 passes?

Moreover if Lamar gets hurt again Huntley goes in and he loves himself some Andrews.

not in the games Lamar played in the 11 games jackson played the targets were split even 87-88 between Hollywood and andrews. It’s a clear 1A and 1B. Which is fine if your gonna pass it on pace for 580 times. If it’s only 400 then it’s probably trouble unless you throw 10 TDS to someone. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

They also had healthy RBs. 

Well I doubt that had much to do with it. They still ran the ball a million times. 3rd in the league in attempts and yards. What made them pass it more was they’re depleted defense thus needed to score more.
 

Lost 2 all pro corners, a starting safety, starting linebacker, starting dlineman all for season ending injuries and had countless others. I vaguely remember one game they played and all the DBs were unsigned at the beginning of the season.. I wanna say it was vs the bears. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

not in the games Lamar played in the 11 games jackson played the targets were split even 87-88 between Hollywood and andrews. It’s a clear 1A and 1B. Which is fine if your gonna pass it on pace for 580 times. If it’s only 400 then it’s probably trouble unless you throw 10 TDS to someone. 

Hollywood is gone. Andrews caught 9 TDs last year and 10 in 2019.

Andrews is going to finish top 3 in TEs for Fantasy. Kelce could be #1 and Pitts has the potential to be #2 but suspect offense and QB. Kittle could also push top 3 but he can't stay healthy and has more target competition - Lance/SF might not throw it that much and be similar to BAL in 2019. Waller has similar issues like SF in that there is a lot of target competition.

The only question here is if his value is worth a 2nd. If I have a late second and depending who is there at RB/WR I will gladly take Andrews. if he slips into the third I'm eating that up all day. If I miss on Andrews I want Pitts. in the late 3rd or early 4th depending how the draft goes.

Andrews has done it for 3 years in a row - including years where they only pass it 400 times. Hollywood is gone. Andrews is getting better each year.

I wish everyone luck playing TE roulette this year.

Edited by Big Nate
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

Hollywood is gone. Andrews caught 9 TDs last year and 10 in 2019.

Andrews is going to finish top 3 in TEs for Fantasy. Kelce could be #1 and Pitts has the potential to be #2 but suspect offense and QB. Kittle could also push top 3 but he can't stay healthy and has more target competition - Lance/SF might not throw it that much and be similar to BAL in 2019. Waller has similar issues like SF in that there is a lot of target competition.

The only question here is if his value is worth a 2nd. If I have a late second and depending who is there at RB/WR I will gladly take Andrews. if he slips into the third I'm eating that up all day. If I miss on Andrews I want Pitts. in the late 3rd or early 4th depending how the draft goes.

Andrews has done it for 3 years in a row - including years where they only pass it 400 times. Hollywood is gone. Andrews is getting better each year.

I wish everyone luck playing TE roulette this year.

Yes hollwood is gone and Bateman is here and better than Hollywood. He will a take those Hollywood targets.
 

andrews caught 9 TDS last year with 580 passes. If the ravens revert back to their norm of 400 andrews will like slip back to his 2020 numbers unless Lamar leads the league in passing TDs again. That’s what andrews need he needs a offense with 600 pass attempts or 36 passing TDs. The ravens might not do either.

andrews has been good for 2 years his TE 5 year was nothing special. If you reached up to take andrews in 2020 you were disappointed. You could have waited till the end of the draft and grabbed a slew of guys for nothing and got 90% of the point andres got you and cost a 3rd rounder. That could be the same situation this year if the ravens go back to 400 pass attempts and Lamar doesn’t have 36 passing TDs.. it’s Just pretty basic math. You like bateman too it sounds like they can’t both be studs with only 400 targets. 

There’s been numerous reports about how the ravens want to revert back to the 2019 formula. Well that was 400 pass attempts. The math jsut doesn’t check out if that happens. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

^^^there is a VAST difference between Andrews & Pitts.

One of them is speculation & hype, the other one is a proven, bankable fantasy stud who had 30 more points than Kelce last season, you decide.

If you are going to reach, reach for Andrews IMO, everybody else is garbage compared to those 2

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Hangry Bird said:

"numerous reports about how the ravens want to revert back to the 2019 formula" lolol...ok guy!

No doubt they want to run the ball more. BAL loves the run game but...

Having a good defense and 3 good RBs (Ingram, Dobbins and Edwards in 2020) sure helps being able to run the ball all the time. Davis isn't Ingram, Dobbins might not quite be 100% yet and Edwards sure isn't ready yet. I foresee a committee at RB but I don't think they will have as much success. They will hope to have their defense back because last year it was a mess.

The consistent thing with this team has been Andrews, and as I stated above he has increased his snap % each year. Nothing is safe in FF but after Kelce this is as safe as it gets for a TE that you never have to think about.

Edited by Big Nate
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

They're rolling back the clock to 2019 out there in Baltimore!!!!!!! Mark Andrew's stock is going to plummet!!!!!!

Sell boys sell, Do not draft, everything's going back to the before times pre-Covid when TEs didn't know how to play football 🤣

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Hangry Bird said:

They're rolling back the clock to 2019 out there in Baltimore!!!!!!! Mark Andrew's stock is going to plummet!!!!!!

Sell boys sell, Do not draft, everything's going back to the before times pre-Covid when TEs didn't know how to play football 🤣

Great insight. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...