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AJ Dillon 2022 Outlook


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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

Sometimes this stuff is really simple. He's a flex Rb, who becomes an RB1 if Jones gets hurt. Draft accordingly. The end.

That sounds about right, though I think there's a possibility he moves more towards "RB2" territory and gets out of "flex" territory. He had more rushes than Jones over the last six games they played together when both were healthy. I have a suspicion the Pack are going to start to transition him towards the 2-down back roll with red zone carries and jones will shift into more of a receiving back roll. I'm not saying that's ALL either of the backs will be. Jones isn't turning into JD McKissic or something (he's far too good of an all-around back for that) and Dillon has also shown some ability to catch passes so it's not going to be a binary situation. More just that percentage of touches might shift here and there leading to like...a 1a and 1b RB setup as opposed to a clear cut rb1, rb2 situation. 

Also who knows what this offense looks like with no Davante Adams. There's always a possibility that each of the 2 RBs are in line for a massive amount of touches. 

If either gets injured the other's value skyrockets. 

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55 minutes ago, yossarian said:

That sounds about right, though I think there's a possibility he moves more towards "RB2" territory and gets out of "flex" territory. He had more rushes than Jones over the last six games they played together when both were healthy. I have a suspicion the Pack are going to start to transition him towards the 2-down back roll with red zone carries and jones will shift into more of a receiving back roll. I'm not saying that's ALL either of the backs will be. Jones isn't turning into JD McKissic or something (he's far too good of an all-around back for that) and Dillon has also shown some ability to catch passes so it's not going to be a binary situation. More just that percentage of touches might shift here and there leading to like...a 1a and 1b RB setup as opposed to a clear cut rb1, rb2 situation. 

Also who knows what this offense looks like with no Davante Adams. There's always a possibility that each of the 2 RBs are in line for a massive amount of touches. 

If either gets injured the other's value skyrockets. 

If you're in a bind, a deep league, or you go zero RB, you could probably do worse in your RB2 slot than Dillon. I would not be drafting him as a top 25 RB though. Aaron Jones is still elite. 45% snap count is BCS without a Jones injury. 

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2 hours ago, ajs723 said:

If you're in a bind, a deep league, or you go zero RB, you could probably do worse in your RB2 slot than Dillon. I would not be drafting him as a top 25 RB though. Aaron Jones is still elite. 45% snap count is BCS without a Jones injury. 

Mostly agree, maybe I'm a sucker for upside but if Jones goes down for an extended period he's a league winner. So will prob end up taking him ahead of some guys in that range.

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3 minutes ago, Joe Mama said:

Mostly agree, maybe I'm a sucker for upside but if Jones goes down for an extended period he's a league winner. So will prob end up taking him ahead of some guys in that range.

Is he a league winner?

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11 minutes ago, Joe Mama said:

Mostly agree, maybe I'm a sucker for upside but if Jones goes down for an extended period he's a league winner. So will prob end up taking him ahead of some guys in that range.

Just remember, there are a dozen "league winner, if the RB ahead of him gets injured" guys.  

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GB’s defense is looking like a top 5 unit. AJ got more usage as the season went on. No Adams, Jones receiving usage up. Not to mention Dillon is just a good football player and entering his prime.

 

All aboard the RB2 with league winning upside train 
 

 

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3 hours ago, Joe Mama said:

I count 3: Dillon, Pollard and Mattision. 

D'onta Foreman if CMC goes down. Darrell Williams if Conner gets hurt. Lindsay if JT is lost. Gus Edwards if Dobbins isn't right. Jamaal Williams with an injured Swift. Rojo if CEH dies. Spiller for Ekeler. Henderson for Akers. White for Jacobs. Robinson behind Gibson. TDP for Mitchell. Stephenson for Harris. Rachaad White for Fournette. Etc, etc... 

Some of these guys are boring, some are unproven, but all that matters is opportunity. Any of these guys could see an RB1 workload at any time this season. A lot of them are free, while you'll pay a high price for Dillon. 

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

D'onta Foreman if CMC goes down. Darrell Williams if Conner gets hurt. Lindsay if JT is lost. Gus Edwards if Dobbins isn't right. Jamaal Williams with an injured Swift. Rojo if CEH dies. Spiller for Ekeler. Henderson for Akers. White for Jacobs. Robinson behind Gibson. TDP for Mitchell. Stephenson for Harris. Rachaad White for Fournette. Etc, etc... 

Some of these guys are boring, some are unproven, but all that matters is opportunity. Any of these guys could see an RB1 workload at any time this season. A lot of them are free, while you'll pay a high price for Dillon. 

Your crushing this forum. Everything you’ve said is 100% accurate. It’s just June so things can change if Jones tears an ACL Dillion will sky rocket. honestly I think he’d still be at a value tho 

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4 hours ago, ajs723 said:

D'onta Foreman if CMC goes down. Darrell Williams if Conner gets hurt. Lindsay if JT is lost. Gus Edwards if Dobbins isn't right. Jamaal Williams with an injured Swift. Rojo if CEH dies. Spiller for Ekeler. Henderson for Akers. White for Jacobs. Robinson behind Gibson. TDP for Mitchell. Stephenson for Harris. Rachaad White for Fournette. Etc, etc... 

Some of these guys are boring, some are unproven, but all that matters is opportunity. Any of these guys could see an RB1 workload at any time this season. A lot of them are free, while you'll pay a high price for Dillon. 

Can’t get on board with those. Just think we’re interpreting “league winner” differently.

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9 hours ago, ajs723 said:

D'onta Foreman if CMC goes down. Darrell Williams if Conner gets hurt. Lindsay if JT is lost. Gus Edwards if Dobbins isn't right. Jamaal Williams with an injured Swift. Rojo if CEH dies. Spiller for Ekeler. Henderson for Akers. White for Jacobs. Robinson behind Gibson. TDP for Mitchell. Stephenson for Harris. Rachaad White for Fournette. Etc, etc... 

Some of these guys are boring, some are unproven, but all that matters is opportunity. Any of these guys could see an RB1 workload at any time this season. A lot of them are free, while you'll pay a high price for Dillon. 

You're exaggerating. Some of those guys are not "league winners". Jamaal Williams for instance? Come on, man... He's not gonna light the world on fire unless you're in a 16-30 team league or something.

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38 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

You're exaggerating. Some of those guys are not "league winners". Jamaal Williams for instance? Come on, man... He's not gonna light the world on fire unless you're in a 16-30 team league or something.

Jamaal Williams will get you 20 touches per game in any stretch where he's healthy and Swift is out. 100 scrimmage yards and a handful of catches, plus all goal line work. He'd be an RB1. 

He's a good RB. All these guys are good RBs. 

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21 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Weekly RB1 is what I'm talking about. 

If all of the starting RB1's and high-end RB2's get injured... sure. That did happen one year a few years back. RB was a wasteland. But overall, many of those names listed are not capable of consistent RB1 production if they get the workload. There is a reason they aren't starting or are journeyman RB's.

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6 hours ago, Joe Mama said:

Can’t get on board with those. Just think we’re interpreting “league winner” differently.

You just wrote off that whole list? Henderson has done it before, Spiller could be a very sneaky one. Foreman also did it down the stretch last year.

I would also add Herbert from CHI and D'Ernest Johnson if Chubb gets hurt. D'EJ looked good in his couple starts last year. These guys have all put up RB1 numbers at times.

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2 hours ago, Big Nate said:

You just wrote off that whole list? Henderson has done it before, Spiller could be a very sneaky one. Foreman also did it down the stretch last year.

I would also add Herbert from CHI and D'Ernest Johnson if Chubb gets hurt. D'EJ looked good in his couple starts last year. These guys have all put up RB1 numbers at times.

"At times" I think is what you're paying extra on Dillon for. Dillon wouldn't get you RB1 production at times if Jones is out. He'd be ranked a top 3-5 RB every week. These other guys would not. They could put up RB1 numbers here and there but realistically they'd be ranked somewhere in the 10-25 range most weeks. 

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Overwhelmingly to me at least it seems like when we try and predict who the "league winner handcuffs" are we, as a community (FFB nerds), are wrong.

Today's NFL being what it is you have to have some handcuffs (personally I prefer the guys where I don't have the starters and am not technically "handcuffing"), but I prefer mine cheap. 

I don't believe in an consistent "standalone value" to any of these cats.

AJ Dillon's ADP on FantasyPros right now is 60 overall.

I wish y'all the best of luck. 

I'm gonna be over here chilling with my Alexander Mattisones (107), Nyheim Hineses (125), Tyler Alegeires (165), etc. of the world.

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4 hours ago, Big Nate said:

You just wrote off that whole list? Henderson has done it before, Spiller could be a very sneaky one. Foreman also did it down the stretch last year.

I would also add Herbert from CHI and D'Ernest Johnson if Chubb gets hurt. D'EJ looked good in his couple starts last year. These guys have all put up RB1 numbers at times.

To add to this. Lindsay has done it. Darrell Williams has done it. Gus Edwards has shown he can do it. 

Herbert has the talent, but the Bears might have the worst offense in the NFL, which is why I didn't include him. 

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1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

 

I'm gonna be over here chilling with my Alexander Mattisones (107), Nyheim Hineses (125), Tyler Alegeires (165), etc. of the world.

This is like bragging about eating at Ruby Tuesday's 

Dillon is better than all those rubes, accept it

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1 hour ago, BGDDYKWL said:

"At times" I think is what you're paying extra on Dillon for. Dillon wouldn't get you RB1 production at times if Jones is out. He'd be ranked a top 3-5 RB every week. These other guys would not. They could put up RB1 numbers here and there but realistically they'd be ranked somewhere in the 10-25 range most weeks.

1. CMC

2. JT

3. Henry

4. Ekeler

5. Dalvin Cook

6. Harris

7. Barkley

8. Kamara

9. Chubb

10. Swift

11. Mixon

 

Dillon would also be outside of the top 10, even if Aaron Jones died.

 

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1 minute ago, predator_05 said:

This is like bragging about eating at Ruby Tuesday's 

Dillon is better than all those rubes, accept it

You're eating at Ruby Tuesday's too, you just aren't noticing it because you're paying STK prices and thinking you're getting a deal.

He's a handcuff man.  If you want to draft him over your WR2 or and an actual RB2 who will, you know, start, then more power to you.  See ya in the vent and rant thread brother.

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