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July Top 100+ SP rankings

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41. Nick Pivetta- guy is really dealing and I think it's pretty legit

And is.  He finally has fixed whatever problem(s) he had in the past and is Pivetta 2.0 now.

Thanks for your list.  You do a good job.  And people will always disagree about one or another ranking but you get this half-dead forum some life an get discussions going that way too.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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14 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Thanks for your list.  You do a good job.  And people will always disagree about one or another ranking but you get this half-dead forum some life an get discussions going that way too.

+1. There will always be disagreements in ranks/ tiers but everyone can agree the work & effort are amazing. Leading the charge to have this thread get pin treatment again. 

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Straight disrespect keeping Verlander out of the top 5. Otherwise, terrific list, I really agree with 95 percent of it. The only other (minor) change I would make- 

I would flop Joe Ryan (44) and Patrick Sandoval (46) with Sonny Gray (51) and Tyler Mahle (55). I think Gray and Mahle will give more volume and have more upside at the moment than Ryan and Sandoval. 

Looking ahead to next month, I think Thor and Taijuan Walker will be risers. 

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Thanks for sharing.  Re; Gore there is some reason for concern -- reduced velo.  Could just be fatigue.  But also, he will have an innings limit this year and then probably only increase the usual 30-40 IP for 2023.

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3 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:
Well here ya go everyone. Mods were extremely supportive by giving my list the pin treatment last month, thanks again!
My process is done for points leagues but can be generally applied elsewhere too. I really took more time for this list and tried my best to dial in the tiers. It's not the easiest exercise, so I do appreciate people not getting too caught up by placement discrepancies of a mere few spots. I was much less aggressive than past months--we have a large chunk of data to pull from and extrapolate off of. Changes in stuff need to be noted, but we are close to the station of the season where most guys are what they are. I really try to not get too hung up on a bad turn (or even a couple turns) as long as we aren't seeing major red flags, these things tend to course correct with pitchers--when they aren't hurt.
These are a snapshot of what I see right now and how I think it will play for at least the next month. I included a few guys due back soon and another list of injured guys below the main list.
I will be traveling by tomorrow and likely unable to reply (due to both celebrating our great country and also really poor internet). So please don't think I am ignoring anything, and hopefully others can step in and we can keep a good debate on course. I really just wanted to get these out for everyone to enjoy/intake before the long holiday!
1. Corbin Burnes- yeah June wasn't his best, but elite stuff was plenty present (0)
2. Shane McClanahan- ace level status achieved, as predicted (+1)
3. Gerrit Cole- still pretty damn awesome (+2)
4. Sandy Alcantara- impressive and complete profile (+6)
5. Max Scherzer- he's itching to get back and should be close to dominant self (N/A)
6. Zack Wheeler- steady and mostly spectacular after truncated ST/April (+3)
7. Justin Verlander- another guy like the 2 above, you can expect 7+ and Ks (0)
8. Joe Musgrove- one off start does not diminish his status for me (-4)
9. Max Fried- I've been paying attention, FA is UP and so is his ceiling! (+11)
10. Alek Manoah- it's not always flashy but it really works, he pitches with no fear (+2)
11. Aaron Nola- really nice run and command is super sharp right now (+10)
12. Brandon Woodruff- awesome return, have to see if it sticks before raising him higher (N/A)
13. Dylan Cease- it can be up/down but can't resist this sort of bat missing ability (+9)
14. Shane Bieber- secondaries carry him but FA is on the upswing too (+3)
15. Logan Webb- getting better and better, this was who I expected (+8)
16. Shohei Ohtani- yeah he's spectacular, it's just format specifics that keep him from top tier territory (+14)
17. Frankie Montas- I am not any less high on him, a trade could unlock even more (-3)
18. Kevin Gausman- was too aggressive last month but he's still very good, the changing balls really messed him up but the splitter seems all the way back. (-16)
19. Carlos Rodon- people were scared but this guy continues to shove, the FA velo continues to fluctuate tho, he's only this low because of his propensity to miss time (-13)
20. Julio Urias- stuff ticking back up, so steady and really good (-4)
21. Clayton Kershaw- hopefully he's ready for a full summer, LA needs him badly (N/A)
22. Luis Severino- another guy who's stuff indicates he can still be better (-9)
23. Pablo Lopez- some signals of possible slowing, not worrying yet tho (-10)
24. Logan Gilbert- he keeps proving me wrong, consistency is valuable too (+11)
25. Yu Darvish- lovely command and smarter pitchability, guy has been nails (+9)
26. Shane Baz- good candidate to head to a tier up, stuff is so damn nice (N/A)
27. Chris Bassitt- love the floor and consistency on a really good team (-1)
28. Framber Valdez- so solid/dependable, that matters more than gaudy K numbers (+9)
29. Robbie Ray- hello new Ray, please forget the old Ray (-14) 
30. Tony Gonsolin- he has also made my ranks look silly, guy can just pitch (+24)
31. Charlie Morton- I really never worried, we saw this show last year, still + stuff (+11)
32. Lucas Giolito- I want to trust his track record and returning change piece (-14)
33. Zac Gallen- stuff looks really good, he has risks but I'm always pro-Zac (-15)
34. Lance Lynn- I still think he is finding his form, his track record is too good (N/A)
35. Spencer Strider- I think ya'll know what I think about Strider by now (+24)
36. Luis Garcia- prob him too, but I just hope they don't jerk him around (-3)
37. Nestor Cortes- something in-between the great and solid/ok we've seen (-9)
38. Luis Castillo- guy is good and capable of being  great, just have to see, normally amazing CH is not there right now, so he will likely rise if he can find it or gets dealt (+1)
39. George Kirby- I am not deterred yet, he has the moxie to rebound and thrive (+6)
40. Kyle Wright- I still like the profile, some babip issues will clear up imo (-8)
41. Nick Pivetta- guy is really dealing and I think it's pretty legit (+25)
42. Cristian Javier- well well, lets keep it going (+15)
43. Miles Mikolas- the stuff is really up and these results are not an accident with his command. Plus matchups in the div, in that park and behind that D (+19)
44. Joe Ryan- I fully believe the April Ryan will be back (-8)
45. MacKenzie Gore- no reason to worry, unless we don't see a good rebound (+5)
46. Patrick Sandoval- throw your damn change up Patty, ceiling is still really good (-3)
47. Jordan Montgomery- he is going to be very useful (-6) 
48. Tarik Skubal- young arms will have some volatility, but no reason to bail here (-19)
49. Jon Gray- FA back up to 96+ and slider has been filth, I am in (+20)
50. Adam Wainwright- I guess I will always be high guy on Waino (-6)
51. Sonny Gray- as long as he's healthy, it's pretty much set/forget (+4)
52. Mike Clevinger- the pitch data is generally good, have patience here (+1)
53. Sean Manaea- usually does his best work in the summer (-13)
54. Jeffrey Springs- pushed him up last month and reaped the rewards, keep riding (+2)
55. Tyler Mahle- well it might not always be consistent but the highs are worth it (+8)
56. Tyler Anderson- change is still showing elite, I'm not remotely ready to bail (-10)
57. Triston McKenzie- I still have concerns with his profile, but he's generally solid (-8)
58. Alex Cobb- people love to hate on blindly following the metrics, but they are too loud in Cobb's case (N/A)
59. Martin Perez- yeah, still don't know, but might as well keep playing him until you can't (+2)
60. Aaron Ashby- very conservative placeholder right now, needs to be right but ceiling is huge as long as command gains remain (-35)
61. Jameson Taillon- he's been a bit off but still plenty useful, I bet he ticks back up (-10)
62. Roansy Contreras- sort of what's to be expected, ceiling is why he's still here (-4)
63. Eric Lauer- FA was back up last start, just have to roll with him and hope he gets the command right...he's in a good spot with the team support to figure it out (-34)
64. Josiah Gray- I am always down with bat missers, please keep up the secondaries and hope the command continues to come around, he's intriguing (+25)
65. Taijuan Walker- stuff has been a tick better, no real reason to not play him (+32)
66. Jose Urquidy- still unsure here, he can pitch but stuff just leaves no margin for error when the command isn't precise (+10)
67. Michael Kopech- troubling signals, hope it is just a blip (-20)
68. Carlos Carrasco- really not sure what to make of him, but he has an established track record, at least...but stuff isn't the same (-1)
69. Graham Ashcraft- cutter really looks awesome, he could be a guy that surges with the right sequencing and he's shown a safe-ish floor (N/A)
70. Noah Syndergaard- something has changed, still unsure if it is static tho 3 (N/A)
71. Corey Kluber- it's working just fine, just not sure there's much ceiling (+12)
72. David Peterson- really like about everything with him lately, but is he really going to stick in the rotation...a problem for another day (+27)
73. Michael Wacha- much like Kluber but with less K's...regressive fairy could be painful but he might be able to defy the odds if health cooperates (N/A)
74. Paul Blackburn- pitchability plays and there's a lot to like with him (+14)
75. JT Brubaker- I had a hunch the turnaround was coming with him, could be the next great ex-Pirate pitcher?! (-2)
76. Ranger Suarez- there are still flashes with him, I'd take a low cost flyer (+8))
77. Hunter Greene- yeah I am still not on board here (+4)
78. Jose Berrios- never liked him much, even less now (-28)
79. Blake Snell- nope (-27)
80. Trevor Rogers- hard fall and it hurts but I still like the pitch data with him, if they can fix the command (and it's been a bit better) then he can help your team yet. (-32)
81. Mitch Keller- I've been posting some good stuff in his thread but nobody seems to notice? It's not inconceivable for him to be tiers higher next month (N/A)
82. Marco Gonzales- boring and mostly steady, useful when rolling (-4)
83. Ross Strippling- been solid, no reason he can't stick around (N/A)
84. Merrill Kelly- I still like him, he has utility for the back of a deeper staff (-10)
85. Zach Plesac- some flashes but also just a backend type (-N/A)
86. Cal Quantrill- still too hittable but can pop off some quality starts on this team (+1)
87. Ian Anderson- whip is troublesome but he is only 24 and capable of much better (-23)
88. Rich Hill- he's 64 and can still apparently rattle off some good turns (N/A)
89. Kyle Gibson- pretty boring but semi useful (-6)
90. Alex Wood- he might be heading in the wrong direction (-20)
91. Dakota Hudson- respect what he's done but I don't see this lasting--at all (N/A)
92. Johnny Cueto- sort of interesting, floor appears to be semi safe, at least (N/A)
93. Jose Quintana- I am not overly optimistic here (N/A)
94. Mitch White- I like him, offspeed stuff is plenty good but prob won't be long for LAD rotation with the deadline on the horizon... (N/A)
95. Andre Pallante- another guy that has impressed me, he is worth a look imo (N/A)
96. Michael Lorenzen- idk, feels like mostly streamer type to me (-31)
97. Keegan Thompson- couple good turns means we have to notice (N/A)
98. Dean Kremer- the cutter is the key, his stuff moves even if the metrics don't love it (N/A)
99. Tyler Wells- decent pitch metrics, maybe it builds to better bat missing (N/A)
100. Justin Steele- a little scattershot but someone to monitor (N/A)
101. Brady Singer- there's actual stuff under the hood here, worth tracking (-30)
102. Devin Smeltzer/Josh Winder- both looking pretty good, not sure who comes out here but odds are with Smetzler at the moment (N/A)
103. Matthew Liberatore- he's gotta be coming up again and I'd bet he's much higher next update (N/A)
*IL* guys (possibly) expected back within 4 weeks or so:
Jacob deGrom- ranked around top 5-10
Chris Sale- ranked around top 25/30
Nathan Eovaldi- ranked around top 30
Nick Lodolo- ranked around top 50
Eduardo Rodriguez- ranked around top 60
Garrett Whitlock- ranked around top 65
Edward Cabrera- ranked around top 70
Jakob Junis- ranked around top 70
Jesus Luzardo- ranked around top 70
Drew Rasmussen- ranked around top 70
Luis Patino- ranked around top 80
Marcus Stroman- ranked around top 80
*bonus injury note* 2 guys that might be about 6 or so weeks out and can absolutely help you win your league are Dustin May and Mike Soroka. Obviously they need to remain setback free but they are priority stashes for me.
MINORS *stashes*
JP Sears
Max Meyer
Bryan Bello
Eury Perez
Hunter Brown
Gordon Graceffo
Bobby Miller
Ryan Pepiot

I hope you don't mind, but I took the liberty of adding +/- movement numbers for the list. You could consider adding this to future lists. I'd always be happy to put in the work for you next time if you forward it to me and I get a sneak peak at it 😉

You could also add the names of pitchers that fell off last month's list. Again, I took the liberty since you put in so much effort to make the list.

-Zach Eflin, Glenn Otto, Chase Silseth, James Kaprielian, Kyle Hendricks, Adrian Houser, Jakob Junis, Reid Detmers, Yusei Kikuchi, Bailey Ober, Madison Bumgarner, Alex Faedo, Dane Dunning, Hyun Jin Ryu, Drew Rasmussen, Garret Whitlock

Edited by Richard Kimble
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On 6/30/2022 at 3:50 AM, Daytraders2022 said:

My favorite-  

‘Blake Snell- nope’

thanks for all you do @ST. STEVEN.. you are a wealth of pitching data.

Has not been good since he dropped that statue on his foot.

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On 6/29/2022 at 6:19 PM, chud12 said:

Yeah I was cracking up seeing the Snell 1 lmfao 

No love for?

Rich Hill- he's 64 and can still apparently rattle off some good turns
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1 hour ago, herschel said:

But Framber doesn’t get any k’s they said…

The Angels just tied the all time major league record for strikeouts in a game with 20. They struck out 48 times in 27 innings in the 3 game series. They've struck out 34 more times than the team with the second most strikeouts in the league.

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Robbie Ray fully back, 5 straight great starts. Era all the way down to 3.62 & whip 1.12. That’s pretty much what we expected when drafting. 

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On 7/1/2022 at 8:12 PM, pbjfb said:

Heaney omission because you’re thinking he’s done?

Just really weary of the reoccurring shoulder. 7 days ago he hadn't been slated to even begin throwing again--which I think he has since been greenlit for...

So yeah I still think they are really going to take their time with him now. But maybe he comes back by early/mid Aug? Still uneasy about him staying healthy but IF he makes it back, with his stuff and is in the LAD rotation--he is slotting in around the 50-60 range. Disclaimer is that I've always been higher on him than most, but he most always underperforms despite really good pitch data and metrics.

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