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Michael Pittman Jr 2022 Outlook


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I don't think this guy has a thread?

I'm torn on him.  He looks like he could take that massive "3rd year leap" that is so often talked about.

Clear alpha WR1 on this team.  The other guys in the room are nothing special.   Had large target share last year, but still with disappointing average results.  I recall there were four games early in the year where he balled out.  But then JT emerged and seemed to take over the entire offense.  Will Frank Reich shift some of the focus back on the pass?  Matt Ryan has always been able to support a top 15 WR1 (Julio then Ridley).  But last year was an aberration because of Ridley's absence.

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15 hours ago, CooL said:

He looks like he could take that massive "3rd year leap" that is so often talked about.

You mean that 3rd year leap that doesn't really exist, but if you look at enough data points then surely you'll find some WRs who underperformed a bit for their first 2 seasons and then got it the third year?

In his case I would say he has already taken a year 2 leap. He had 1100+ yds and 6 TD, which isn't too shabby, and I'd say he's the clear #1 on his team. Well, #1 WR. The real #1 is JT, and as long as Taylor stays healthy, I'd expect the Colts to give him the ball a lot.

But if they focus more on the passing game (only 3300 yards last season, and now they have Matt Ryan), then Pittman could certainly get interesting.

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Bit of a concern with Matt Ryan's ultra-conservative approach in the red zone.  He had an athletic jump ball specialist last season in Atlanta, but Kyle Pitts scored very very few short TDs.

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35 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Bit of a concern with Matt Ryan's ultra-conservative approach in the red zone.  He had an athletic jump ball specialist last season in Atlanta, but Kyle Pitts scored very very few short TDs.

Ryan had 25+ TDs in 9 out of his last 12 seasons. He also had a first year OC and a first year HC last season.

I mean I don't know where the trend is going, just saying maybe it's good we look at a bit more data than just last year. 

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7 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Ryan had 25+ TDs in 9 out of his last 12 seasons. He also had a first year OC and a first year HC last season.

I mean I don't know where the trend is going, just saying maybe it's good we look at a bit more data than just last year. 

Yeah as opposed to "ultra conservative" - I would say he spreads the ball around between the 20s (a good real life football skilll, but can be frustrating for fantasy owners) and on the Falcons' most successful teams that he played on (2012 and 2016) he focused on Tony Gonzalez and Devonte Freeman in the RZ as opposed to Roddy White and Julio Jones because the risk of turnovers was lower and the chances of them getting the needed yards and scores was likely. 

I'd say Pittman stands a reasonable chance of increasing his taget/catch/yardage total and will definitely have some touchdowns vultured.

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I think he's going to take another step this year. Talent, skills, pedigree and now a good QB, its all there.  He's the guy people will say "oh crap, it was so obvious and so why didn't I take him?"

Well, you didn't take him because you went sexy. Sexy can land you in the consolation bracket sometimes, especially in the round MPJ is going. You don't get many locks in that range.

 

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

Ryan had 25+ TDs in 9 out of his last 12 seasons. He also had a first year OC and a first year HC last season.

I mean I don't know where the trend is going, just saying maybe it's good we look at a bit more data than just last year. 

Ryan did have a history of refusing to target Julio in the redzone. It's almost like he expects the defense to take away his top target down there and spreads it elsewhere.

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6 minutes ago, afl5013 said:

Ryan did have a history of refusing to target Julio in the redzone. It's almost like he expects the defense to take away his top target down there and spreads it elsewhere.

His last normal season Julio tied for 16th with one per game. Not a lot but not bad, that's 12th among receivers.

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He wasn't exactly a TD machine last year so I'm not too worried about the RZ stuff.   He's an at par guy- I don't imagine he has a lower floor or a much higher ceiling than high end to mid WR2.    Even if someone breaks out in that offense, Pittman's a reliable chap, and a guy getting targets on a team that should at least contend for most of the year is a relatively safe add

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Big fan of Pittman. But I am also still on the Campbell is good train and will stay healthy this year (gross I know). 
 

Campbell has proven to be very effective when he plays, if he gets hurt (which is likely) Pittman will return value, but if Campbell stays healthy, I think he’s too talented to not get a piece of the pie. That’s not even mentioning Hines and Taylor receiving work. 
 

Just playing a little devils advocate during the boring month of June 

Edited by Breesus
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Matt Ryan entered the league in 2008.
He has played 14 seasons and missed only 3 games in that time.
He has had the benefit of playing with Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Kyle Pitts.

Here is a list of every pass catcher that has more than 10 TD receptions in a single season from Matt Ryan:

Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk.

Some of you may point to Roddy White in 2009, but please be aware that this is the year Matt Ryan was injured, subbing for him was Chris Redman in weeks 12, 13, and 14, in which Roddy caught 2 of his 11 TDs that season, leaving only 9 from Matt Ryan.  Think about that for a moment, Roddy Whites career high TDs came in the season Matt Ryan missed the most games.
In 2010 Roddy had exactly 10.
In 2012 Julio had exactly 10.
In 2018 Ridley had exactly 10.

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Did anyone bake into their MJP value a +10TD season? The only people who seem to be talking about TDs and MPJ are those who are saying he won't get a bunch of TDs. TDs never stopped Roddy White or Julio Jones from being very good fantasy options with Matt Ryan. Thank you, come again.

 

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15 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

Here is a list of every pass catcher that has more than 10 TD receptions in a single season from Matt Ryan:me of you may point to Roddy White in 2009, but please be aware that this is the year Matt Ryan was injured, subbing for him was Chris Redman in weeks 12, 13, and 14, in which Roddy caught 2 of his 11 om Matt Ryan.  Think about that for a moment, Roddy Whites career high TDs came in the season Matt Ryan missed the 0 Roddy had exactly 10.
In 2012 Julio had exactly 10.
In 2018 Ridley had exactly 10.

11's kind of a lot though isn't it?

Last year there were only 5 guys in the league who had 11.  Same deal in 2019 and 2017, and in 2018 there was one.

Julio is an all time great but they never schemed him heavily in the RZ.

Pittman got 17 RZ targets last season, good for 27th in the league.  I would absolutely not expect him to get 11 TDs. 

I do think a yardage bump is possible.

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On 6/24/2022 at 6:04 AM, Spyplane said:

Oh yeah and a preventive he's not Julio or Roddy. Noted and I do not care. He's really good and got a QB upgrade. This doesn't need to get more complicated than it is.

My biggest issue is that he's probably being drafted at his ceiling. WR14 on Underdog atm is really rich. Mooney is at WR29 and had a similar statline last season.

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9 hours ago, Evincar said:

My biggest issue is that he's probably being drafted at his ceiling. WR14 on Underdog atm is really rich. Mooney is at WR29 and had a similar statline last season.

You have to project for this season, though. Ryan should have a really nice season with a better line, better run game to make play-action effective & Pittman will benefit. Mooney wont be close to Pittman when this season is up

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2 hours ago, lvsaint429 said:

You have to project for this season, though. Ryan should have a really nice season with a better line, better run game to make play-action effective & Pittman will benefit. Mooney wont be close to Pittman when this season is up

Mooney was just one name for example. I dont think Pittman is going to produce more than him to justify the 2 round difference. Same goes for other guys in the same range as Mooney. like Juju, Bateman, Allen Robinson. I like Pittman but I dont see a monster season in his range of outcomes at a 3rd round price.

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