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Mike Evans 2022 Outlook


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On 8/31/2022 at 2:18 PM, JAG said:

He's behind Pittman, Deebo, Lamb, Hill.

Even with Sutton, McLaren, Mike Williams, D. Johnson.

Ahead of Keenan, Jeudy, DJ Moore, Cook.

Unsure if I like Higgins the same or less.

Definitely like him more than Deebo, hill.  Him and Pittman are a tossup.  Deebo not improving on last years season and either is hill , I can guarantee that.  Lance will struggle at times and he will spread the ball around and run a lot. 

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18 minutes ago, collucho said:

Exactly what happened to me. Didn't land him in a single mock draft out of 20+ but there he was at 29 and I had to.

Really isn’t a safer pick around the 26-30 range , he’s going to get 1k + yards with a top 3 in the league td rate for wr 

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7 hours ago, Brye said:

Really isn’t a safer pick around the 26-30 range , he’s going to get 1k + yards with a top 3 in the league td rate for wr 

Ah, good ole Mike Evans. Same exact debate, every single season and I always agree to the above- the consistency AND health of this man should push him higher than his “expected” value, that’s how I view it. 
 

*Only player in the league with 8 consecutive 1000+ yard seasons 

*in 8 seasons, has never missed more than 3 games(once), and 7 out of 8 seasons he has never missed more than 1 game- this is incredibly underrated. 
 

*Plays with the Goat- and has 27tds in 2 seasons with him. 
 

So the question is, what more exactly do you want out of a mid-late 2nd round pick? It’s very simple, if you don’t respect his value, you simply only care about shooting for the highest possible ceiling and don’t value consistency, health, and QB play. 

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28 minutes ago, SportsBrain said:

Ah, good ole Mike Evans. Same exact debate, every single season and I always agree to the above- the consistency AND health of this man should push him higher than his “expected” value, that’s how I view it. 
 

*Only player in the league with 8 consecutive 1000+ yard seasons 

*in 8 seasons, has never missed more than 3 games(once), and 7 out of 8 seasons he has never missed more than 1 game- this is incredibly underrated. 
 

*Plays with the Goat- and has 27tds in 2 seasons with him. 
 

So the question is, what more exactly do you want out of a mid-late 2nd round pick? It’s very simple, if you don’t respect his value, you simply only care about shooting for the highest possible ceiling and don’t value consistency, health, and QB play. 

If you go back into any Mike Evans thread for the last 6 or 7 years, you'll see me posting something just like you did above.

But this year I'm out.

He's become too TD dependent now.  The goat has killed all of his other production, targets, receptions, yards, to where he HAS to get double digit TDs just to break even on his ADP.

I love the player, but it's not an investment I want to make.  That's before we talk about whether he's declining before our eyes, whether the new offensive system without Arians in the field will still push the ball deep down the field, before we talk about Oline concerns even allowing Tom the time for those routes Mike Evans lives on to develop.  Before we talk about Julio, Gage, and Godwin being there now.  Gronk is gone which helps, but Brady threw the ball 719 times last year, and Evans only got 113 targets.  If Brady comes down to earth, at all, Evans target share will have to take a jump forward just to maintain his status quo.

If Evans falls, even to just 10TDs, he goes from top 10WR down to about 18th overall, which drops him to WR22 on a per game basis.  That's just TDs, if Brady throws less and Evans doesn't balance it out with target share, take 8 catches, 110 yards, and suddenly he's a WR3.

This isn't really about Mike Evans, it's about the cliff from the Elite WRs, and the massive pool of guys between 10-25 who are separated by so little.

114/74/1035/14 with Brady throwing it 719 times last year.

If Brady or this offense falls to even just 650, which is basically tied with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes (top5 in the league) it's easy to see Evans falling to even a modest 104/68/950/10 statline.

That would tie AmonRa for WR22 overall last year, which would be 14ppg, WR29 on a per game basis.

The room for error within the massive blob of WRs is razor thin.

Love the player, terrified of Brady and the offense coming down to earth (I'm still projecting top 5 attempts for Brady and double digit TDs for Evans and we're talking about a massive fall, with the potential for so much more downward fear.)

But he is a stud.  I just get a bad feeling about the TB offense this year, but... In Tom we trust I suppose.  But Tom hasn't exactly been the beaming light of confidence this off-season with whatever the hell hea got going on, marital problems, kicking out Arians, Gronk retiring, Godwin and Gage both gimpy, Julio likely to be gimpy any day now, which kills the offense, but shoots Mike Evans up to volume monster so I guess it's fine.  But Evans also had the hammy flare up in camp right?  I don't know...

I haven't drafted a single TB player across any of my leagues.  Purely a gut call.

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29 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

If you go back into any Mike Evans thread for the last 6 or 7 years, you'll see me posting something just like you did above.

But this year I'm out.

He's become too TD dependent now.  The goat has killed all of his other production, targets, receptions, yards, to where he HAS to get double digit TDs just to break even on his ADP.

I love the player, but it's not an investment I want to make.  That's before we talk about whether he's declining before our eyes, whether the new offensive system without Arians in the field will still push the ball deep down the field, before we talk about Oline concerns even allowing Tom the time for those routes Mike Evans lives on to develop.  Before we talk about Julio, Gage, and Godwin being there now.  Gronk is gone which helps, but Brady threw the ball 719 times last year, and Evans only got 113 targets.  If Brady comes down to earth, at all, Evans target share will have to take a jump forward just to maintain his status quo.

If Evans falls, even to just 10TDs, he goes from top 10WR down to about 18th overall, which drops him to WR22 on a per game basis.  That's just TDs, if Brady throws less and Evans doesn't balance it out with target share, take 8 catches, 110 yards, and suddenly he's a WR3.

This isn't really about Mike Evans, it's about the cliff from the Elite WRs, and the massive pool of guys between 10-25 who are separated by so little.

114/74/1035/14 with Brady throwing it 719 times last year.

If Brady or this offense falls to even just 650, which is basically tied with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes (top5 in the league) it's easy to see Evans falling to even a modest 104/68/950/10 statline.

That would tie AmonRa for WR22 overall last year, which would be 14ppg, WR29 on a per game basis.

The room for error within the massive blob of WRs is razor thin.

Love the player, terrified of Brady and the offense coming down to earth (I'm still projecting top 5 attempts for Brady and double digit TDs for Evans and we're talking about a massive fall, with the potential for so much more downward fear.)

But he is a stud.  I just get a bad feeling about the TB offense this year, but... In Tom we trust I suppose.  But Tom hasn't exactly been the beaming light of confidence this off-season with whatever the hell hea got going on, marital problems, kicking out Arians, Gronk retiring, Godwin and Gage both gimpy, Julio likely to be gimpy any day now, which kills the offense, but shoots Mike Evans up to volume monster so I guess it's fine.  But Evans also had the hammy flare up in camp right?  I don't know...

I haven't drafted a single TB player across any of my leagues.  Purely a gut call.

These are my fears exactly as described.  Nothing but admiration and respect for this guy, never seems to let ego gain control.  But this year I'm out.  Hope he slays it to continue his HOF career, but if Brady is 100% in charge now, he's going to be too volatile for me.  I've only got one league where I dipped into this offense, buying Godwin.

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1 minute ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I'm spooked by the hamstring.  I'm glad he came back to practice but anytime you get a receiver nearing 30 with hamstring issues and I can avoid them I usually do.

Normally it would be a valid concern, but this guy legit has a hammy injury every single year in camp and is perfectly fine. He is still 29, and it’s funny anybody could possibly use injury against him when he’s legit been the most durable and consistent WR in the league. 
 

Gronk/AB were 2 very good targets for Brady, about 140 targets lost there and Gronk was one of his fav red zone targets.  Both gone and now replaced by a washed up Julio and Gage?  
 

Godwin is coming off a serious injury, and let’s see how quickly he gets going. 
 

Vegas has o/u for Evans TDs at 10.5. Only player higher in the league is Kupp at 11.5.  

 

Who’s going in this range you are so sure of and has ANYWHERE near this track record? Only guy close is K Allen, who is even older with much less TD upside. 

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1 minute ago, SportsBrain said:

Normally it would be a valid concern, but this guy legit has a hammy injury every single year in camp and is perfectly fine. He is still 29, and it’s funny anybody could possibly use injury against him when he’s legit been the most durable and consistent WR in the league. 
 

Gronk/AB were 2 very good targets for Brady, about 140 targets lost there and Gronk was one of his fav red zone targets.  Both gone and now replaced by a washed up Julio and Gage?  
 

Godwin is coming off a serious injury, and let’s see how quickly he gets going. 
 

Vegas has o/u for Evans TDs at 10.5. Only player higher in the league is Kupp at 11.5.  

 

Who’s going in this range you are so sure of and has ANYWHERE near this track record? Only guy close is K Allen, who is even older with much less TD upside. 

The downside of track record is that at some point that is cold comfort for aging.

I'd rather be a year too early than a year too late, and the data on 30 year old WRs is not great.  Any additional warning lights and I hit eject.

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/the-lifecycle-of-a-dynasty-wide-receiver-fantasy-football/#:~:text=The probability of a player,end of this age range.

  • Age 29 to 31: This is the beginning of the end for most wide receivers. The probability of a player finishing as a WR1 or WR2 declines heavily after age 30. In addition, we generally see a dip in PPR per game production by the end of this age range.
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2 minutes ago, SportsBrain said:

Who’s going in this range you are so sure of and has ANYWHERE near this track record? Only guy close is K Allen, who is even older with much less TD upside. 

Just to be clear, I've been a strong proponent of avoiding both WR and RB in this slot, because you're not wrong about comparing him to the field at his position, but it doesn't negate my points about the field.

Kelce, Andrews both outscored him at a more valuable position last year.  Pitts, as a rookie, basically matched him in every category except TDs.  Josh Allen.

Those are the 4 players I would take before Evans which basically means, for me, he would never hit my roster in the 3rd round.

I don't believe I can make a very strong argument against Evans as one of the best WR options at his ADP, I'm betting against the entire field of WRs at his ADP because of how I value that group of 15WRs who span 2-4 rounds, and will be separated by 10 catches, 100 yards, and 2 TDs over the course of 17 games, which is miniscule in the big picture.

If you're forcing yourself to go WR at that spot, there's nothing wrong with choosing him.  I'm just not convinced anyone should be going WR at that spot, unless it's Tyreek or Deebo who sometimes fall there.

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2 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Just to be clear, I've been a strong proponent of avoiding both WR and RB in this slot, because you're not wrong about comparing him to the field at his position, but it doesn't negate my points about the field.

Kelce, Andrews both outscored him at a more valuable position last year.  Pitts, as a rookie, basically matched him in every category except TDs.  Josh Allen.

Those are the 4 players I would take before Evans which basically means, for me, he would never hit my roster in the 3rd round.

I don't believe I can make a very strong argument against Evans as one of the best WR options at his ADP, I'm betting against the entire field of WRs at his ADP because of how I value that group of 15WRs who span 2-4 rounds, and will be separated by 10 catches, 100 yards, and 2 TDs over the course of 17 games, which is miniscule in the big picture.

If you're forcing yourself to go WR at that spot, there's nothing wrong with choosing him.  I'm just not convinced anyone should be going WR at that spot, unless it's Tyreek or Deebo who sometimes fall there.

This is where I disagree- you take Deebo with Trey Lance, who has 0 nfl track record, a arm that looks no where near league average, combined with 1 total season of production/health from Deebo and I’ll take the guy with 8 1k+ seasons running playing w the greatest QB of all time.  To each their own, I won’t sell this anymore, but will note that so far in 2 very competitive high stakes leagues I’ve been in, Evans has gone above Deebo. So it seems others also understand the value here as well. 

 

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23 minutes ago, SportsBrain said:

Normally it would be a valid concern, but this guy legit has a hammy injury every single year in camp and is perfectly fine. He is still 29, and it’s funny anybody could possibly use injury against him when he’s legit been the most durable and consistent WR in the league. 
 

Gronk/AB were 2 very good targets for Brady, about 140 targets lost there and Gronk was one of his fav red zone targets.  Both gone and now replaced by a washed up Julio and Gage?  
 

Godwin is coming off a serious injury, and let’s see how quickly he gets going. 
 

Vegas has o/u for Evans TDs at 10.5. Only player higher in the league is Kupp at 11.5.  

 

Who’s going in this range you are so sure of and has ANYWHERE near this track record? Only guy close is K Allen, who is even older with much less TD upside. 

oOOoOOooo gimme that under baby we call that a win/win situation.

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12 minutes ago, SportsBrain said:

This is where I disagree- you take Deebo with Trey Lance, who has 0 nfl track record, a arm that looks no where near league average, combined with 1 total season of production/health from Deebo and I’ll take the guy with 8 1k+ seasons running playing w the greatest QB of all time.  To each their own, I won’t sell this anymore, but will note that so far in 2 very competitive high stakes leagues I’ve been in, Evans has gone above Deebo. So it seems others also understand the value here as well. 

 

Don’t disagree with anything you said but in my high stakes league, Debo went at 10 in the 2nd while I grabbed Evans at 8th in the third. 

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40 minutes ago, chucky said:

Don’t disagree with anything you said but in my high stakes league, Debo went at 10 in the 2nd while I grabbed Evans at 8th in the third. 

Of course, I’m sure there are plenty of competitive leagues he goes first. I’m just saying what happened in leagues w very competitive guys I trust, that’s all. 

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6 minutes ago, herschel said:

any concerns for week 1?  i was hoping for a big week with godwin likely either gimpy or out, but forgot there is a good chance diggs ends up shadowing evans.  cant sit him, but guess we need to temper expectations?

Brady spreads the ball around to keep everyone honest. Evans will grab one TD. You want Evans and a piece of that offense v Dallas.

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Evans going to eat a lot, and in the red zone forget about it we’re talking 16-18 td upside here….. I just don’t see any wr’s going in that range replicating anything close to that.  I’ll take 5-6 more tds over 15-20 more receptions n half ppr any day.  

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