Jump to content
NBC Sports EDGE Forums

Mike Evans 2022 Outlook


Recommended Posts

Brady's back. 

Gronk isn't (for now), nor the AB circus. 

Godwin recovering from an ACL tear.

Bucs claim they want to run more under Bowles, but we'll see how that goes.

The SportsEdge blurbs are talking up Gage, and I get it, he'll be cheaper, but holy smokes this looks like a good situation for Mike Evans, don't it?

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Brady's back. 

Gronk isn't (for now), nor the AB circus. 

Godwin recovering from an ACL tear.

Bucs claim they want to run more under Bowles, but we'll see how that goes.

The SportsEdge blurbs are talking up Gage, and I get it, he'll be cheaper, but holy smokes this looks like a good situation for Mike Evans, don't it?

If he doesn't get injured. 

He's chasing history at this point, going for 9 straight 1000 yard seasons. Never been done. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Safest floor of any WR in the league.  Arguably the lowest upside, and I could argue he's TD dependent.

I love Mike Evans, I've been regurgitating his stats on this forum for years now, about why he's underrated, underdrafted, and underappreciated.

Except... Now he's not being underdrafted.  Currently WR10 off the board, he only finished WR12 last year, and if not for 14 TDs, he would have been a WR3.  If not for the additional week, he would have failed to break 1,000 yards last year.

In 2021 there were twenty-three (23) WRs who had 1000 yards receiving.  If it weren't for his TDs, the narrative around Evans fantasy season would be polar opposites.  If you draft him at 10th, you are basically drafting him at his ceiling, in which he HAS to repeat 14 TDs to break even on your investment.  Or you're betting on a jump in either yards (that we haven't seen since Ryan Fitzpatrick) or even more TDs.  That's a bad bet in my book.  He's getting the lowest targets and reception rates of his career since Brady showed up.

BUT... Then the playoffs came, and he dominated.  26 targets, 17 receptions, 236 yards and 2 TDs in 2 games, which directly correlates to the absence of both AB and Godwin.

So, you have to ask yourself, do you think TB is going to continue their playoff game plans without any real WRs behind Evans?  Or do you think they've rebuilt and recalibrated with a new WR2\3 and Evans goes back to the underutilized, TD dependent guy?

On a per game basis, Godwin has been the better fantasy player since Brady showed up.  WR10 is a hard sell given that information, but WR gets pretty ugly after Evans name on the draft board.

I've mentioned this purgatory area of the WR rankings in a few threads already but, basically it boils down to a paradox.  I think Evans is fairly ranked among his competition, I'm not drafting Metcalf, Dionte, Higgins, or Waddle over him, so I can't lower his ranking among WRs, but I don't think he deserves to be drafted where he is among all other positions on the board.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Safest floor of any WR in the league.  Arguably the lowest upside, and I could argue he's TD dependent.

I love Mike Evans, I've been regurgitating his stats on this forum for years now, about why he's underrated, underdrafted, and underappreciated.

Except... Now he's not being underdrafted.  Currently WR10 off the board, he only finished WR12 last year, and if not for 14 TDs, he would have been a WR3.  If not for the additional week, he would have failed to break 1,000 yards last year.

In 2021 there were twenty-three (23) WRs who had 1000 yards receiving.  If it weren't for his TDs, the narrative around Evans fantasy season would be polar opposites.  If you draft him at 10th, you are basically drafting him at his ceiling, in which he HAS to repeat 14 TDs to break even on your investment.  Or you're betting on a jump in either yards (that we haven't seen since Ryan Fitzpatrick) or even more TDs.  That's a bad bet in my book.  He's getting the lowest targets and reception rates of his career since Brady showed up.

BUT... Then the playoffs came, and he dominated.  26 targets, 17 receptions, 236 yards and 2 TDs in 2 games, which directly correlates to the absence of both AB and Godwin.

So, you have to ask yourself, do you think TB is going to continue their playoff game plans without any real WRs behind Evans?  Or do you think they've rebuilt and recalibrated with a new WR2\3 and Evans goes back to the underutilized, TD dependent guy?

On a per game basis, Godwin has been the better fantasy player since Brady showed up.  WR10 is a hard sell given that information, but WR gets pretty ugly after Evans name on the draft board.

I've mentioned this purgatory area of the WR rankings in a few threads already but, basically it boils down to a paradox.  I think Evans is fairly ranked among his competition, I'm not drafting Metcalf, Dionte, Higgins, or Waddle over him, so I can't lower his ranking among WRs, but I don't think he deserves to be drafted where he is among all other positions on the board.

As you've illustrated quite well many times before, in our game everyone is TD dependent to an extent, it's the most valuable play in our game by far.  If you subtract X amount of TDs from anyone's projection, they become X amount less valuable.

The question to me is, is Gronkowski actually retired or just skipping camp?

If he's really gone, I wonder who is going to take Evans touchdowns?  Gage?  Brate?  Fournette?

Godwin will take a share of the pie no doubt, but he may be on the PUP list in camp and possibly when the regular season starts, he could take some time to get up to speed.

Brady will spread the ball around but Evans seems to have his eye in the red zone, and the biggest alternative on the team there just retired.

Edited by JE7HorseGod
Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

As you've illustrated quite well many times before, in our game everyone is TD dependent to an extent, it's the most valuable play in our game by far.  If you subtract X amount of TDs from anyone's projection, they become X amount less valuable.

It's not a universal baseline though.

It's a different discussion when we talk about someone with 14 falling to 10, vs someone with 8 falling to 4, or 4 falling to 0.  The inverse is also true.  Evans getting from 14 to 18 is extremely hard to accomplish.  But DJ Moore going from 4 to 8 is completely reasonable.

Therefore the way we measure their likelihood of increasing or decreasing their TD totals year to year, are polar opposites.  The same 4 TDs, are weighted extremely differently for the 2 players in question.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

It's not a universal baseline though.

It's a different discussion when we talk about someone with 14 falling to 10, vs someone with 8 falling to 4, or 4 falling to 0.  The inverse is also true.  Evans getting from 14 to 18 is extremely hard to accomplish.  But DJ Moore going from 4 to 8 is completely reasonable.

Therefore the way we measure their likelihood of increasing or decreasing their TD totals year to year, are polar opposites.  The same 4 TDs, are weighted extremely differently for the 2 players in question.

Oh yes, absolutely.  And projecting many more TDs for Evans is unlikely.  He was #2 last season and #4 the year before. 

I just don't see the context for projecting much less either. 

Meanwhile because of the factors I mentioned above (no Brown, no Gronk, coalescing Godwin, Gage new to the team, etc) to me at least early on I could see a yardage bump that results in a larger yearly total than the last two seasons with Brady.

If Gronk is retired.  If he comes back in August, or Godwin comes out 100%, then I retract this hypothesis. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm down at cost.   Haven't had him yet in the Brady era and the missing targets is more than enough for me.  Even with Godwin back later and if Gage blows up, still plenty for Evans.  I think this whole offense is very well priced at the moment.  We'll see if that holds up.   

I suppose there could be a new body added as perhaps they were just waiting on Gronk, but there isn't much out there and Brady's done plenty well with far less.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I just don't see the context for projecting much less either. 

The context is Brady, to be honest.

He threw 716 times last year.  I'll take the under.

He threw 5,316 yards last year.  I'll take the under.

He threw 43TDs last year.  I'll take the under.

Brady, at age 44, just had the best statistical season of his entire career.  Meanwhile Evans is hitting career lows in targets, catches, and yards in the same time frame Brady is hitting career highs.  It's the TDs keeping him afloat, and if Brady doesn't repeat 40+, can Evans repeat 14?  With Arians gone, is Brady still going to take those deep shots that BA made a living off of?  Is Evans still getting the 50\50 looks? Or is Brady going to go back to being a Bellichick mentality, dink and dunker, control the clock, run the ball, option route, crossers, and check down mentality?

There was a clear disconnect between Brady and Arians, and I think expecting this offense to continue at the pace it has, now that Brady kicked Arians upstairs, is a very dangerous notion.

If Brady were to repeat 40TDs he'd be the first QB to ever achieve that feat in 3 straight years.

The more I look at the bigger picture, the less faith I have in Evans.  You're right, the ball has to go somewhere, and with all the targets gone Evans should be the main benefactor, but Brady has never really worked that way.  If it were any other QB I'd probably completely agree with you.  But Brady will throw 100 balls to Scotty Miller and not think twice about it. Maybe Evans' slice of pie gets bigger, but I expect a much smaller pie.  I can't pay top dollar for that.  If I have a top 5 pick, I'm just avoiding WRs at the 2\3 wrap.  If you have a bottom 5 pick and Evans makes it to you at the 3\4 wrap, then okay the discussion changes, but let me ask you this... Would you rather have Brady's #1 WR who finished 9th overall (262pts\16.4ppg) or his #1 RB who finished 6th overall (255pts\18.3ppg)?

Because I know which one I think is more valuable, especially in a year where I expect the offensive philosophy to favor the run.

*Clarification for confusion between my 2 posts, Evans finished 9th overall, 12th in PPG, I don't think I made that clear when I was jumping back and forth.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

but let me ask you this... Would you rather have Brady's #1 WR who finished 9th overall (262pts\16.4ppg) or his #1 RB who finished 6th overall (255pts\18.3ppg)?

It's a fair question.  I usually play Yahoo and it looks like Fournette is going a little earlier in that format based on the fantasypros ADP data in mocks thus far, it is super close though across the board.

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/half-point-ppr-overall.php

I'd rather have Fournette.  However, if I'm looking at the WRs around that point, I'd prefer Evans to Brown, Allen, and probably Hill personally.

The more interesting question (for me at least) is Evans against Antonio Gibson, and possibly Barkley.

Edited by JE7HorseGod
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

Safest floor of any WR in the league.  Arguably the lowest upside, and I could argue he's TD dependent.

I love Mike Evans, I've been regurgitating his stats on this forum for years now, about why he's underrated, underdrafted, and underappreciated.

Except... Now he's not being underdrafted.  Currently WR10 off the board, he only finished WR12 last year, and if not for 14 TDs, he would have been a WR3.  If not for the additional week, he would have failed to break 1,000 yards last year.

In 2021 there were twenty-three (23) WRs who had 1000 yards receiving.  If it weren't for his TDs, the narrative around Evans fantasy season would be polar opposites.  If you draft him at 10th, you are basically drafting him at his ceiling, in which he HAS to repeat 14 TDs to break even on your investment.  Or you're betting on a jump in either yards (that we haven't seen since Ryan Fitzpatrick) or even more TDs.  That's a bad bet in my book.  He's getting the lowest targets and reception rates of his career since Brady showed up.

BUT... Then the playoffs came, and he dominated.  26 targets, 17 receptions, 236 yards and 2 TDs in 2 games, which directly correlates to the absence of both AB and Godwin.

So, you have to ask yourself, do you think TB is going to continue their playoff game plans without any real WRs behind Evans?  Or do you think they've rebuilt and recalibrated with a new WR2\3 and Evans goes back to the underutilized, TD dependent guy?

On a per game basis, Godwin has been the better fantasy player since Brady showed up.  WR10 is a hard sell given that information, but WR gets pretty ugly after Evans name on the draft board.

I've mentioned this purgatory area of the WR rankings in a few threads already but, basically it boils down to a paradox.  I think Evans is fairly ranked among his competition, I'm not drafting Metcalf, Dionte, Higgins, or Waddle over him, so I can't lower his ranking among WRs, but I don't think he deserves to be drafted where he is among all other positions on the board.

he’s a end of 2 guy right now in my lgs

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

i’m just worried the wheels come off this entire tm this yr…skill positions have the obvious red flags

Evans is 28, there isn't a whole lot of evidence that WRs fall off at that age.

Brady is a cybernetic robot who people have claimed will fall apart for the past ten years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

BUT... Then the playoffs came, and he dominated.  26 targets, 17 receptions, 236 yards and 2 TDs in 2 games, which directly correlates to the absence of both AB and Godwin.

So, you have to ask yourself, do you think TB is going to continue their playoff game plans without any real WRs behind Evans?  Or do you think they've rebuilt and recalibrated with a new WR2\3 and Evans goes back to the underutilized, TD dependent guy?

Some good thoughts overall but I wanted to comment on this specifically. Wtih AB, Godwin and Gronk all gone to start the season it really only leaves Evans and Gage - both who I really like this year. Evans is set up to smash the first 6 weeks or so, which could be a massive boom to your roster to kick off the season. 

As for the TDs, where else are Brady's 40 TDs going? If he didn't have Brady chucking him the ball in the RZ I might be worried but as soon as they get down there Brady looks for Evans.

As much as I like Gage where he is currently going, he still isn't as good as Evans and Evans isn't loosing RZ looks to Gage.

In Dynasty if you are a win now team I'm all over trying to acquire Evans if the owner is looking to rebuild.  He might start off the first 6 weeks averaging a TD a game.

Edited by Big Nate
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

As for the TDs, where else are Brady's 40 TDs going?

Here's the Bucs RZ target stats the past two seasons:

http://nflsavant.com/targets.php?ddlYear=2020&ddlPosition=&week=&rz=redzone&ddlTeam=TB

http://nflsavant.com/targets.php?ddlYear=2021&ddlPosition=&week=&rz=redzone&ddlTeam=TB

Things that I learned in looking at this:

Evans leads the pack in RZ targets at 39 since Brady got there (I suspected this but have data to confirm), then Godwin at 36, Fournette at 28, Brate at 25, Gronk at 23.

Fournette and Brate will get a lot of looks in the RZ and are trusted by Brady.

With exception for Godwin, Brady has not heavily targeted any other WR than Evans in the RZ with the Bucs.

Although Brady has shown to be one of the great "spread around-ers" in NFL history, with the Bucs, these five guys have DEFINITIVELY been the the preferred targets in the RZ (AB got 11 targets, everyone else is single digits).

I'd expect him to get someone new involved (Gage possibly), but with Gronk retired and Godwin possibly on the shelf early, Brady has only shown true chemistry with three healthy guys currently on the roster so far for short yardage TD looks - one of whom is a RB who has struggled with injury issues in the past and and another who hasn't topped 4 TDs since 2018, and the third is Mike Evans.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Every top guy breaks down eventually, Brady will be no different, but as stated, it should've happened already and may not this year.  Even as Brees was clearly fading during MT's all pro year, he was still feeding the beast.  Brees was even worse the next season, and MT was barely around, yet Alvin Kamara was RB1 overall

I suppose it's more likely than even with the age progression, since he already was ready to hang em up a few months ago.  But I'm not gonna worry about it too much.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Evans is 28, there isn't a whole lot of evidence that WRs fall off at that age.

Brady is a cybernetic robot who people have claimed will fall apart for the past ten years.

Plus, he doesn't really rely on speed.  He's likely the exact same player as last year but now not competing with Gronk and possibly Godwin for a while.

I am very interested in Gage later on though.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...
1 hour ago, MetsSox said:

Any confirmation that his injury today is indeed a hamstring injury and nothing more serious?

Just saw that he tweaked a hammy. Let’s hope he doesn’t go to Julio for advice on how to handle it 🤷🏻‍♂️

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm beginning to think this Bucs offense is going to be more trouble than it's worth.

Godwin has this murky recovery timeline, Evans already injured his hammy, Gronk still retired, Jansen injured, Marpett gone, Julio is om his last legs, Gage is pretty so so.

I think I'll let someone else take a crack at Brady and Fournette.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/5/2022 at 2:46 PM, MetsSox said:

Any confirmation that his injury today is indeed a hamstring injury and nothing more serious?

I don't think it's serious for his week 1 outlook, but you can read into it re: his season long prospects however you like. It seems like this guy is always tweaking his hamstrings although he has typically come back fairly quickly. Age has a way of impeding that though

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 weeks later...

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...