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Diary of a Madman:2022 Keeper League Strategy


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This is just a diary where I spill out thoughts for my own league.  Comments welcome if you see anything interesting.  Otherwise it's me getting something down on print to look back on in August when it's draft time.

LEAGUE- 12 teams, keep 3 guys per year.  Year 8 of the league.   PPR.  Fairly standard lineup 1-2-3-1-Flex-K-D.  Deep benches.  

MY TEAM- Champion in 2020, left little draft capital, grinded out a one and done playoff season in 2021  Hot start- 7-2, then Henry goes down, I trade a pick and cheap Cam Akers stock for a stable but it included the immediate to be injured Robert Woods.    I have the 8th overall pick for the first five rounds..except that I traded away my 4th.

Edited by BrianM
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Here's my lot of potential keepers.  The overall thought of what to do is trade interest dependent.   I've had 3-4 years of mostly no brainer keepers that is now gone, and I feel no strong ties to anyone here.  If people come forth looking to trade, anyone will be made available.    Reminder, keep 3 of the following

  • Henry (1st)
  • Kamara (1st)
  • McLaurin (6th)
  • Dillon (8th)
  • Gabe Davis (9th)
  • Elijah Moore (10th)
  • Schultz (10th)

If nobody trades and I'm on the spot right now, I keep Henry, Davis, and Moore.   

Henry is the 8th overall pick if I keep, but I'm especially meh on the first round period this year, much less so when figuring the top 6 or so are all likely kept.  If I don't keep Henry, by the time that pick comes around, I'm looking at like Aaron Jones or something if I'm lucky.   Might as well start out strong. 

I dealt away picks last year to keep both Kamara and Henry (needed 2 firsts).  I'd kill to trade Kamara but his stock is down, I'm not sure anyone would try.  I have had constant trade interest (had him since rookie yr) so maybe someone is still smitten, but can't bet on it.

I'm one of the biggest anti Carson Wentz guys around, but I also believe in McLaurin.  If I'm gonna get something for anyone here, Terry's probably the guy.  I think he'll be hit or miss and hopefully someone else's problem, for frankly, whatever I can get for him.

AJ Dillon isn't a strong option, but consider that Aaron Jones is an easy cap cut after this year.  Dillon would be a 6th next year and is probably an RB1 if Jones isn't there.  Sometimes a move like this is solid.  Probably would only do it if I get can't refuse offers for two or three other guys, and realistically, maybe 4 other owners even need to trade for keepers, and I'm not the only seller.

Gabe Davis is my absolute favorite here.  He was actually cut at one point and I got him free hoping for this.   Side note- I live in Western NY and he's naturally popular here.  I might be able to deal him for a ransom. 

Elijah Moore is someone I'm hot and cold on.  I think he's an absolute gem, but Jets have other mouths, and a low end QB.    Love the price of course.  If he does break out and solidify a long career, he's an 8th in 2023, a 6th in 2024, and so on

Schultz is just a guy who's worth more than his draft pick round.  He's a top 5 or 6 TE for me but if I just dont keep him and take a TE in the 8th or so, I'll get someone almost as good.  Worth it above keeping nobody, not much else.  Sometimes you can trade a guy like this for a mild return just to someone who needs a third keeper but isn't keen on a high pick trade

Edited by BrianM
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6 hours ago, BrianM said:

I'm one of the biggest anti Carson Wentz guys around, but I also believe in McLaurin.  If I'm gonna get something for anyone here, Terry's probably the guy.  I think he'll be hit or miss and hopefully someone else's problem, for frankly, whatever I can get for him.

I get trying to trade him but I would absolutely keep him over Gabriel Davis and Elijah Moore if you're stuck with him. 

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4 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I get trying to trade him but I would absolutely keep him over Gabriel Davis and Elijah Moore if you're stuck with him. 

Yeah, we'll see I guess.  I suppose I can get him neck and neck with Moore.  If one believes in both players, how could I keep Moore with the Jets being no sure thing, but say McLaurin's QB situation is too bad to do the same........when he's the clear alpha.

I also owned Pittman a bunch last year, and he was fine.  Maybe I'm getting too fancy

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On 6/18/2022 at 2:47 PM, Boudewijn said:

I get trying to trade him but I would absolutely keep him over Gabriel Davis and Elijah Moore if you're stuck with him. 

I'm big Davis and Moore fans (have both in dynasty) but I agree with your comment about keeping McLaurin.

to the OP all three WRs are good values but in a 3 keeper league you want the best 3 possible guys (barring some insane value). I think Davis and Moore will have good years but TM is the #1WR in that offense and getting him for a 6th is still good value. Maybe you can trade Davis like you said as his hype grows and you seem to be in a good market for it. 

While Henry is getting old I still think getting him at 1.08 is good value. They are going to run a TON and as long as he is healthy he can be the weekly RB1. Kamara has the talent but he's not going in the first round anymore - then add on a possible suspension and he isn't worth it. He's DND for me this year unless his ADP continues to drop. I'm fine missing out on Kamara this year.

As for Schultz, assuming he doesn't hold out, he would be in consideration as a keeper for me. I think he gets a TON of work to start the season with Gallup out and Cooper gone. He should be the #2 target in the Cowboys offense to start the season. The only thing that would give me pause is I think you start 3 WRs. So keeping Davis or Moore along with McLaurin could be an option. What I like about Schultz is he has Dak's trust and is a red zone threat (8TDs last year) finishing as the WR3. I could see him easily finishing top 5TE again and you get him as a 10th. Jarwin is gone and no competition for targets in DAL. Lock in your TE spot - set it and forget it.

When do your keepers have to be locked in? As of now I look to trade Davis to get max value and I would probably keep Henry, McLaurin and Schultz. I'd also look to shop Shultz to see if someone will give you something worthwhile and then keep Henry, McLaurin and Davis. But I think I would still rather have my TE (who can be a top 5) locked in and then hammer RB and WRs during the draft and not worry about missing a TE. 

Some good options to think about and monitor over the next couple months.

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On 6/20/2022 at 12:54 PM, Big Nate said:

I'm big Davis and Moore fans (have both in dynasty) but I agree with your comment about keeping McLaurin.

to the OP all three WRs are good values but in a 3 keeper league you want the best 3 possible guys (barring some insane value). I think Davis and Moore will have good years but TM is the #1WR in that offense and getting him for a 6th is still good value. Maybe you can trade Davis like you said as his hype grows and you seem to be in a good market for it. 

While Henry is getting old I still think getting him at 1.08 is good value. They are going to run a TON and as long as he is healthy he can be the weekly RB1. Kamara has the talent but he's not going in the first round anymore - then add on a possible suspension and he isn't worth it. He's DND for me this year unless his ADP continues to drop. I'm fine missing out on Kamara this year.

As for Schultz, assuming he doesn't hold out, he would be in consideration as a keeper for me. I think he gets a TON of work to start the season with Gallup out and Cooper gone. He should be the #2 target in the Cowboys offense to start the season. The only thing that would give me pause is I think you start 3 WRs. So keeping Davis or Moore along with McLaurin could be an option. What I like about Schultz is he has Dak's trust and is a red zone threat (8TDs last year) finishing as the WR3. I could see him easily finishing top 5TE again and you get him as a 10th. Jarwin is gone and no competition for targets in DAL. Lock in your TE spot - set it and forget it.

When do your keepers have to be locked in? As of now I look to trade Davis to get max value and I would probably keep Henry, McLaurin and Schultz. I'd also look to shop Shultz to see if someone will give you something worthwhile and then keep Henry, McLaurin and Davis. But I think I would still rather have my TE (who can be a top 5) locked in and then hammer RB and WRs during the draft and not worry about missing a TE. 

Some good options to think about and monitor over the next couple months.

Keepers won't lock in until late August, usually 5 or so days before the yet to be scheduled draft.   I'm commish and I'll kick off the league after July 4, and generally trades happen real quick after that so you gotta hit the ground running.   I already know who I'm messaging right off the bat since a couple guys in the past were hot for McLaurin and Kamara at least.  There's a few more that are keeper light and easy to trade with (responsive at least), so they're getting a ping too.   I also recall two different people swearing at last year's draft when Davis was taken, as he was a want for a few people.   

All good insights here.  On the Schultz thing, I just don't fear that I'll struggle to get a TE with this year's crop.  I do feel confident in him but I struggle to get him past 5th best on my keeper options.  

I'll keep this updated as things get moving. 

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3 hours ago, BrianM said:

Keepers won't lock in until late August, usually 5 or so days before the yet to be scheduled draft.   I'm commish and I'll kick off the league after July 4, and generally trades happen real quick after that so you gotta hit the ground running.   I already know who I'm messaging right off the bat since a couple guys in the past were hot for McLaurin and Kamara at least.  There's a few more that are keeper light and easy to trade with (responsive at least), so they're getting a ping too.   I also recall two different people swearing at last year's draft when Davis was taken, as he was a want for a few people.   

All good insights here.  On the Schultz thing, I just don't fear that I'll struggle to get a TE with this year's crop.  I do feel confident in him but I struggle to get him past 5th best on my keeper options.  

I'll keep this updated as things get moving. 

What I like about Schultz is his clear path to targets, in a good offense with a QB that trusts him. He's also been healthy which guys like Waller and Kittle haven't been.

Year 3 Schultz finished as the TE 12 in PPR - 89 targets. Nothing too fancy but it started his "breakout". Year 4 (last year) he finished as the TE 3 and took another step forward. Even when Jarwin was healthy Schultz had jumped him on the depth chart. DAL is so desperate for pass catchers they have talked about using Pollard in the slot. Cooper gone, Gallup hurt and they bring in Washington and draft Tolbert. Doesn't worry me one bit taking targets from Schultz.

This DAL offense could easily support 2 WRs but they don't have 2 clear WRs (yet), so that leaves Schultz. If I didn't have Andrews in Dynasty I'd be doing everything I can to snag Schultz before the season starts this year. 

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