DJ Moore 2022 Outlook

[FFCollusion]

2 hours ago, buzzkilloton said:

I look at a player like J.Landry(since i was just checking Bakers past WRs) as one comparison of many you can find. He was a consistent producer who played with bad QBs that was getting 90 1100 but not many TDs his first few seasons . Then his age 25 year with a corpse of Jay Cutler he put up 112 rec 1k+ and 9 TDs. 

And then he played with Baker Mayfield, and what happened?  Career low targets, career low receptions, career low receiving yards(non rookie) career low TDs, and 3 of his worst fantasy seasons of his career. *I'm eye balling at a glance, I'm on the road, forgive my inability to spreadsheet the data for 100% accuracy.

Weird.

I can't imagine why anyone is concerned about DJ Moore with Baker.

Landry had 1 decent year with Baker, career high in yardage, but it was still a worse fantasy season than Landry had with either Tannehill or Cutler.  So your narrative that producing with bad QBs means more points with good ones... Doesn't pan out.  I've said it before, Baker is the worst kind of "good" in that he's just good enough, to not take the risks that help push fantasy WRs over the edge in fantasy.  The dumb jump balls, the risky "eff it he's down there somewhere" or the "I can fit it in that window".  Baker just takes the safe route everytime and doesn't force the issue.  Or he throws it to the other team, with seemingly no middle ground. Good for real football, bad and boring for fantasy football.  Maybe that was Cleveland brainwashing him, maybe CAR can revamp his career, I'm a full believer in that a change of scenery can revive a player.

I don't think I need to show everyone OBJs stats before, with, and then after Baker.

I think you're misunderstanding the point people are making.  No one (as far as I can tell) is arguing DJ Moore's upside, as far as HIS personal skill, talent, and age are concerned.  From that regard, I agree with you 100%, I don't think we've seen his ceiling, I don't think he's peaked, and when it happens, I'd love to have a share.  Hell before the Mayfield trade I was planning on getting shares this year.  I said that before the Baker trade, that 1 year this guy is gunna randomly hit 8-10TDs and instantly be a WR1, based on all of his other stats, and how fluky TDs can be.

What people are telling you, is that we don't think Baker is the QB who will help Moore reach his ceiling, or potential, or peak.

So you can keep repeating his age, or 3rd year break outs, or this and that about stats and metrics that apply to DJ Moore, no one's is arguing those.

We are arguing that we have zero faith in Baker Mayfield being the catalyst for Moore's true breakout fantasy season.

You can disagree, and that's fine.  Baker has had flashes where I can tell you, I wouldn't be shocked if he completely turned the page, and turns into what he always could have been, if it wasn't for Cleveland.  I doubt it, but I won't pretend that possibility doesn't exist.

So, if you believe in Baker, no problem man, that's fine.  But if you keep repeating DJ Moore stats, then you're just not getting it.

No one here doubts DJ Moore.

We doubt Baker.

[buzzkilloton]

29 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

And then he played with Baker Mayfield, and what happened?  Career low targets, career low receptions, career low receiving yards(non rookie) career low TDs, and 3 of his worst fantasy seasons of his career. *I'm eye balling at a glance, I'm on the road, forgive my inability to spreadsheet the data for 100% accuracy.

Weird.

I can't imagine why anyone is concerned about DJ Moore with Baker.

Landry had 1 decent year with Baker, career high in yardage, but it was still a worse fantasy season than Landry had with either Tannehill or Cutler.  So your narrative that producing with bad QBs means more points with good ones... Doesn't pan out.  I've said it before, Baker is the worst kind of "good" in that he's just good enough, to not take the risks that help push fantasy WRs over the edge in fantasy.  The dumb jump balls, the risky "eff it he's down there somewhere" or the "I can fit it in that window".  Baker just takes the safe route everytime and doesn't force the issue.  Or he throws it to the other team, with seemingly no middle ground. Good for real football, bad and boring for fantasy football.  Maybe that was Cleveland brainwashing him, maybe CAR can revamp his career, I'm a full believer in that a change of scenery can revive a player.

I don't think I need to show everyone OBJs stats before, with, and then after Baker.

I think you're misunderstanding the point people are making.  No one (as far as I can tell) is arguing DJ Moore's upside, as far as HIS personal skill, talent, and age are concerned.  From that regard, I agree with you 100%, I don't think we've seen his ceiling, I don't think he's peaked, and when it happens, I'd love to have a share.  Hell before the Mayfield trade I was planning on getting shares this year.  I said that before the Baker trade, that 1 year this guy is gunna randomly hit 8-10TDs and instantly be a WR1, based on all of his other stats, and how fluky TDs can be.

What people are telling you, is that we don't think Baker is the QB who will help Moore reach his ceiling, or potential, or peak.

So you can keep repeating his age, or 3rd year break outs, or this and that about stats and metrics that apply to DJ Moore, no one's is arguing those.

We are arguing that we have zero faith in Baker Mayfield being the catalyst for Moore's true breakout fantasy season.

You can disagree, and that's fine.  Baker has had flashes where I can tell you, I wouldn't be shocked if he completely turned the page, and turns into what he always could have been, if it wasn't for Cleveland.  I doubt it, but I won't pretend that possibility doesn't exist.

So, if you believe in Baker, no problem man, that's fine.  But if you keep repeating DJ Moore stats, then you're just not getting it.

No one here doubts DJ Moore.

We doubt Baker.

Landry went and played with a rookie QB in a new system in 2018. Of course his numbers dipped from what was his peak season. Then the next season OBJ came over and Hunt was added. All the while Chubb was one of the best runners in the game. 

DJ Moore is entering his prime seasons and is getting a step up in QB play. Hes already proven for 3 years in a row he can perform with bad QBs. Their isnt a OBJ alpha being traded for here hes the man. Hes on the same team with a guy Cmac who hes shown he can put up big numbers along side of.

— Cam Newton, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, Will Grier, Teddy Bridgewater, PJ Walker and Sam Darnold

Baker isnt a name like the other guys upgraded qbs but this is the list of QBs that have thrown to Moore. Hes getting a upgrade its been awful.

 

Edited August 14, 2022 by buzzkilloton

[owenmills]

9 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

I can't imagine why anyone is concerned about DJ Moore with Baker.

.........

So, if you believe in Baker, no problem man, that's fine.  But if you keep repeating DJ Moore stats, then you're just not getting it.

No one here doubts DJ Moore.

We doubt Baker.

I'm not trying to die on the DJ Moore hill. I don't feel THAT strongly about him. I just view him as a guy who is really good and has put up numbers despite shaky QB play, and really has just been kept out of WR1 range by lack of TDs(one of the most fickle stats). I like him at his ADP because I think there's potential for a big year, but even if it doesn't happen he'll do what he usually does and put up good numbers and not kill you.

Here's the Panthers passing ypg and total TDs in DJ's 4 years

2018 : 254, 28

2019 : 258, 17

2020 : 258, 16

2021 : 210, 14

Here's Baker's 4 seasons :

2018 : 266, 27

2019 : 239, 22

2020 : 222, 26

2021 : 215, 17

The last 2 years Cleveland has been #8 and #5 in the league in rushing attempts, which probably won't be the case in Carolina.

Anyways, looking at that data my takeaway is Baker isn't going to turn the team into a passing powerhouse(which DJ obv doesn't need to post his catches/yards) but definitely looks like an upgrade and there is perhaps a decent chance for a TD bump for DJ.

I see him sitting around WR14 now, which seems like it's risen a bit lately from where he was when I was really on him as a value but I still like him there. He's in the tier with AJ Brown, Higgins, Pittman, DJ Moore, Diontae Johnson, Waddle, McLaurin, BMW, and Sutton. I really like Higgins this year too and I'm kind of coming around on Brown but I'd probably bump Moore up one more spot over Pittman to WR13. 

[owenmills]

Actually, as I think more about it I probably move DJ over AJ Brown to WR12. I think Brown is going to have similar issues(low volume passing attack, Hurts might not hit 20 passing TDs) and I like the chances of Baker taking DJ to next level more than Hurts elevating Brown.

Hopefully on draft day though DJ can be had for cheaper than that due to people sleeping on him or worrying about Baker and there's more room for profit.

[FFCollusion]

On 8/11/2022 at 9:28 PM, FFCollusion said:

I'm a big fan of DJM and what he's done so far in his career, it's truly impressive given his QB play.  But I absolutely despise Baker, and so... I'm out.

I said it earlier in the thread though, one of these years Moore is going to do his typical 90/1150, but actually get 8-10TDs, and he'll be a low end WR1.

Is this that year?  Ehh... again, I hate Baker, so I'll take the under.  I think his targets, catches, and yards go down, but he has a career high in TDs.  Still a low end WR2 on the season, WR3 on a per game basis, which means at his ADP, he's a complete DND for me.  I can name probably a dozen WRs I think have the same range of outcomes as DJ Moore, who are 5 rounds cheaper.  Opportunity cost is the name of the game.

 

1 hour ago, owenmills said:

I'm not trying to die on the DJ Moore hill. I don't feel THAT strongly about him. I just view him as a guy who is really good and has put up numbers despite shaky QB play, and really has just been kept out of WR1 range by lack of TDs(one of the most fickle stats). I like him at his ADP because I think there's potential for a big year, but even if it doesn't happen he'll do what he usually does and put up good numbers and not kill you.

Here's the Panthers passing ypg and total TDs in DJ's 4 years

2018 : 254, 28

2019 : 258, 17

2020 : 258, 16

2021 : 210, 14

Here's Baker's 4 seasons :

2018 : 266, 27

2019 : 239, 22

2020 : 222, 26

2021 : 215, 17

The last 2 years Cleveland has been #8 and #5 in the league in rushing attempts, which probably won't be the case in Carolina.

Anyways, looking at that data my takeaway is Baker isn't going to turn the team into a passing powerhouse(which DJ obv doesn't need to post his catches/yards) but definitely looks like an upgrade and there is perhaps a decent chance for a TD bump for DJ.

I see him sitting around WR14 now, which seems like it's risen a bit lately from where he was when I was really on him as a value but I still like him there. He's in the tier with AJ Brown, Higgins, Pittman, DJ Moore, Diontae Johnson, Waddle, McLaurin, BMW, and Sutton. I really like Higgins this year too and I'm kind of coming around on Brown but I'd probably bump Moore up one more spot over Pittman to WR13. 

I'm never really sure what to do when people quote me, repeat the same thing I've already said, and say they disagree with me.

All you did was provide more stats that show Baker, doesn't throw as much as Carolina has the past 4 years.  You showed that he throws more TDs, which is why I already predicted a career high in TDs, but I'm also predicting a drop in targets, receptions, and yards.

I used that statline to show, that Moore will be a WR2 on the season, which will be a WR3 in a PPG basis, neither of which is worth paying WR12 for on draft day.

But the biggest take away here, is that this isn't about DJ Moore.  It's about draft strategy and opportunity cost.  I've barely disagreed with a single thing anyone has said about DJ Moore himself.  What I'm telling you, is that even with the stats YOU'RE projecting, he's not worth his ADP because I believe I can get equal production from WRs drafted multiple rounds after him, therefore from a draft analysis perspective, he is a bad investment.

Let me try it from a different angle.

Let's say DJ Moore repeats the season he just had, and doubles his career high in TDs.  162 targets, 93 catches, 1157 yards, 8 TDs.  That's WR10 overall.  Like I said above, it jumps him to low end WR1.  That stat line, on a per game basis, is WR18.  A middle of the road WR2.  And you're telling me you're willing to rank, and draft, him at WR12, for what might be a WR10 overall finish, WR18 PPG?

Now, let me remind you, I'll take the under on 162 targets.  I'll take the under on 93 catches.  I'll take the under on 1157 yards, but I'm on board with 8TDs.

So for me, not only do I believe you're drafting him at his ceiling, my projections lead me to believe he's being over drafted by a large margin.

But let's take the focus off of DJ Moore for a second, because as I've told you, I don't really disagree about him (the player) nearly as much as you think.

I want you to key in on the fact that doubling his career high in TDs, while using his career high in targets, and receptions, and career average in receiving... That the 24 points we're debating are roughly a 10 spot jump on the season, and per game basis.

Because that's the real point I'm discussing here.  Is that the massive group of WRs from 10 to 28 based on total or PPG, are so closely grouped, that a few TDs either way is all that separates them.  It's not that Moore isn't possibly going to be #10, it's that the next 3-4 rounds of WR, are ALSO just as likely to finish anywhere in that range, so I just don't want to pay for the highest players of that tier I feel exists.

DJ Moore is good.  I believe he can be everything you project.  I'm just not convinced that it's worth the price he costs, if I feel I can get similar production for significantly cheaper.

It's not a knock on DJ Moore, it's about drafting philosophy.

[owenmills]

9 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

All you did was provide more stats that show Baker, doesn't throw as much as Carolina has the past 4 years.  You showed that he throws more TDs, which is why I already predicted a career high in TDs, but I'm also predicting a drop in targets, receptions, and yards.

The last two years Cleveland has been very run heavy, which is when Baker's ypg dipped. I don't think Carolina will be top 8 in rushing attempts this season. I interpret the stats as showing he actually throws about the same volume as Carolina has been doing, but more TDs. Will this translate into the positive TD regression for DJ? Maybe not but I think we all expect it to happen at some point and this seems about as good a year as any. And when it does happen I expect him to be a WR1.

I don't think I repeated the same thing as you did at all, and we clearly have different viewpoints on what DJ's ADP should be. I previously posted that DJ Moore was WR14(which I thought was fairly accurate) but that was at fantasypros. I just looked at FFC ADPs and he's at WR21. Holy cow, I'm all over that in that's where he's valued in my draft. I imagine other sites/platforms are all somewhere in between. 

[PlayTheWaivers]

I like him as a player, want him on my teams, but not sure I see league winning ceiling. They will need to throw in the division though. I expect the Saints to also put some points, not sure about the Falcons. Bucs are bucs. Then again, division has some talented defenders in their own right. 

DJM is an ideal build target for someone that went heavy at RB/TE or something and need a rock solid contributor at the WR position. 

[FFCollusion]

48 minutes ago, owenmills said:

The last two years Cleveland has been very run heavy, which is when Baker's ypg dipped. I don't think Carolina will be top 8 in rushing attempts this season. I interpret the stats as showing he actually throws about the same volume as Carolina has been doing, but more TDs. Will this translate into the positive TD regression for DJ? Maybe not but I think we all expect it to happen at some point and this seems about as good a year as any. And when it does happen I expect him to be a WR1.

I don't think I repeated the same thing as you did at all, and we clearly have different viewpoints on what DJ's ADP should be. I previously posted that DJ Moore was WR14(which I thought was fairly accurate) but that was at fantasypros. I just looked at FFC ADPs and he's at WR21. Holy cow, I'm all over that in that's where he's valued in my draft. I imagine other sites/platforms are all somewhere in between. 

Cleveland is run heavy, because no one wants to let Baker throw the ball, and that's the strength of their team.

They also run more total plays than Carolina does.  So while they destroy them in running totals, in passing totals the difference is really only about 3 attempts per game.  And again that's in the 2 years WITHOUT CMC on the field for like 20 of their 35 games.

If CMC is healthy do you think their passing totals go up? Or down?

With Baker as the QB do you think they let him chuck the ball more than Darnold it less?

If Baker is a better "real life" QB, do you think Carolina trails as many games? Has as much garbage time? Or is forced to throw as often as they have been forced to the last couple years?

Like I keep saying, Baker is the worst kind of "good" QB for fantasy.  He's just good enough to not produce the volume we love as fantasy, because he manages games in way that's good for the NFL, bad for fantasy.

[owenmills]

9 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Cleveland is run heavy, because no one wants to let Baker throw the ball, and that's the strength of their team.

They also run more total plays than Carolina does.  So while they destroy them in running totals, in passing totals the difference is really only about 3 attempts per game.  And again that's in the 2 years WITHOUT CMC on the field for like 20 of their 35 games.

If CMC is healthy do you think their passing totals go up? Or down?

With Baker as the QB do you think they let him chuck the ball more than Darnold it less?

If Baker is a better "real life" QB, do you think Carolina trails as many games? Has as much garbage time? Or is forced to throw as often as they have been forced to the last couple years?

Like I keep saying, Baker is the worst kind of "good" QB for fantasy.  He's just good enough to not produce the volume we love as fantasy, because he manages games in way that's good for the NFL, bad for fantasy.

Carolina's passing yards per game were basically identical in 2019(CMC's biggest year) and 2020(he missed most of the year). DJ Moore's best year also came in 2019.

Baker doesn't need to chuck the ball up & down the field for Moore to be very good. He's done it consistently with crap throwing to him. All he really needs is that bump in TDs. 

[BGDDYKWL]

Guy is so consistent, and at year's end the stat line is always pretty darn impressive. But as others have mentioned, he's just not an "impact" guy. He'd need to nearly triple his TD production to get there. His year end stat line looks better than what he contributes to a fantasy team on a weekly basis. I like him, but not at his ADP. 

[ponchsox]

This guy is once again undervalued and has a better QB throwing the ball this year. He’s my WR2 target and I can wait a little for him.

[MagikarpeDiem]

Does adding Shenault hurt Moore?  I’ve been high on Moore but another receiver in the mix makes me nervous 

[herschel]

5 minutes ago, MagikarpeDiem said:

Does adding Shenault hurt Moore?  I’ve been high on Moore but another receiver in the mix makes me nervous 

if youre getting cut from the jags, dont think you pose much of a threat to the one alpha received on the team....

[FFCollusion]

38 minutes ago, MagikarpeDiem said:

Does adding Shenault hurt Moore?  I’ve been high on Moore but another receiver in the mix makes me nervous 

Not even a little.

There aren't a lot of WRs in the league who pose a threat to Moore, and the vast majority of the ones that would, aren't going anywhere.

You can safely draft him as the clear cut, unquestioned #1 WR of the Panthers.

Edited August 29, 2022 by FFCollusion

[ponchsox]

56 minutes ago, MagikarpeDiem said:

Does adding Shenault hurt Moore?  I’ve been high on Moore but another receiver in the mix makes me nervous 

lol

[Evincar]

3 hours ago, MagikarpeDiem said:

Does adding Shenault hurt Moore?  I’ve been high on Moore but another receiver in the mix makes me nervous 

Shenault might not be even the WR3 on this team.

[PlayTheWaivers]

Reading collusions comments make me real nervous as moore is approaching me near end of round 3. Feels like more of a feeling call vs logic here lol. Djm theoretically can hit ceilings but the situation looks still not great. Just like Mclaurin 

[ThunderDan]

3 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

Reading collusions comments make me real nervous as moore is approaching me near end of round 3. Feels like more of a feeling call vs logic here lol. Djm theoretically can hit ceilings but the situation looks still not great. Just like Mclaurin 

Exactly how I feel. The head understands all the reasons DJ should be great. The heart doesn’t buy it, primarily bc of mayfield. The heart keeps winning. 

[Evincar]

1 hour ago, ThunderDan said:

Exactly how I feel. The head understands all the reasons DJ should be great. The heart doesn’t buy it, primarily bc of mayfield. The heart keeps winning. 

 

1 hour ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

Reading collusions comments make me real nervous as moore is approaching me near end of round 3. Feels like more of a feeling call vs logic here lol. Djm theoretically can hit ceilings but the situation looks still not great. Just like Mclaurin 

Im not a big believer in Baker but he should at least be decent enough to prevent last year's nightmare scenario where Moore is still getting a ton of targets but doing nothing with them. Is Baker the QB to unlock Moore's ceiling? I have my doubts.

[SMP1993]

I’ll play devil’s advocate again to a certain extent. While I agree with consensus that A. DJ Moore is really good and B. Baker is far from a sure thing, I do think Baker turned a corner at the end of 2020 and was on his way to unlocking a more top-end part of his potential before his shoulder turned into slabs of roast beef and the Browns let him play anyway. I know people have gripes with PFF, but indulge me:

In 2020, Baker Mayfield was PFF’s 11th rated passer. From weeks 7-17, he had a PFF grade of 90.6, 3rd best in the league. His adjusted completion percentage in 2020 was 76.1%, up nearly 8 points from the 69.5% rate he put up in 2019. In the Wild Card game against Pittsburgh, he earned a 90.5 grade from PFF. I understand Mayfield has limitations and hasn’t shown us that he can support a top receiver in fantasy football. That said, I do think he made significant strides in the second half of 2020 (without OBJ mind you), and we can’t let his 2021 campaign cloud our judgment too much. I also think it bears saying that in 2021, OBJ was still making his way back from the ACL tear. Expecting him to be a factor in the first few months of last season wasn’t realistic given the nature of ACL injuries and how long it takes guys to adjust to playing football again. Like I said, I’m not necessarily endorsing the idea that Baker will ever play well enough in a more pass heavy system to support a WR1. However, his last 2+ months of 2020 mean I can’t dismiss the idea of Mayfield being better than we all think, either, and they definitely mean I think he’s a drastic improvement over the garbage Moore has been saddled with throughout his short career.

Edited August 31, 2022 by SMP1993

[THE_MAGIC_MAN]

anyone thinking about benching DJ this week against a tough secondary?

[NinerLifer]

18 minutes ago, THE_MAGIC_MAN said:

anyone thinking about benching DJ this week against a tough secondary?

Nope, got him staring in both my leagues and feeling pretty good about it. Such a target hog and expecting volume to trump the matchup 

[Dez Bryants Mama]

1 hour ago, THE_MAGIC_MAN said:

anyone thinking about benching DJ this week against a tough secondary?

You don't draft Moore to bench him

[hangin n wangin]

1 hour ago, THE_MAGIC_MAN said:

anyone thinking about benching DJ this week against a tough secondary?

God bless you brother if you have the depth to contemplate benching Moore.

[Jordan Coppington]

DJ Moore is about to feel Odell Beckham Jr’s pain all year