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DJ Moore 2022 Outlook


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14 minutes ago, buzzkilloton said:

BS I owned multiple shares of Mixon last season and was positive on him where he was falling. I mean I wasnt thrilled I was getting him in the early 3rd but I drafted him more then once and posted about it!

Also its weak to try to call someone out about being wrong on one player in another players thread. Everyone is wrong from time to time. That said this case is even weaker because your trying to be pro fantasypros while making a false accusation. 

Maybe it wasn't Mixon. I recall someone we disagreed on last year and you were very wrong. You're one of those posters who uses the condescending know-it-all tone so it's easy to remember. 

I have no clue who here has the best hit rates but we're all wrong sometimes. The key is having that self awareness because it helps being able to share data and discuss, even guys you feel strongly about.

For all your rants about fantasypros(you never explained why it's wack for Mike Williams to drop in PPR?) I think the rankings you posted have some issues. Just because you say 'the sharps' took Najee at 11 behind Davante Adams I'm supposed to concede it's a wise choice? I'm not so much pro fantasypros as just thinking your rant doesn't make sense and your supposed great rankings have plenty of flaws as well.

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16 minutes ago, MingusDew said:

Honest question but if one mostly plays in home/private leagues than what ADP site should one use?

Underdog is best ball so that's not going to be accurate. And I believe that FFPC is TE premium. Moreover, relying on ADP from "sharp" platforms where drafts have been happening for months isn't ideal because I'm not playing in those leagues. I play with a mix of very smart, dedicated players and folks who are casual and looking to have a good time.

Always look at ADP from competitive leagues as a baseline.  If you're playing in soft leagues its not going to matter much you will just get massive value falling to you anyways. As far as format you can just look at NFC for adp data or sort by positions its all close enough te 1.5 in ffpc.

Doing what another poster mentioned and checking the presets on the site your drafting on to go against the adp is always interesting in soft leagues. Overall adp is just a guide make your own rankings based on guys you like and consume alot of podcast/youtube there is so much good stuff out there is good for casual leagues. 

 

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28 minutes ago, MingusDew said:

Honest question but if one mostly plays in home/private leagues than what ADP site should one use?

Underdog is best ball so that's not going to be accurate. And I believe that FFPC is TE premium. Moreover, relying on ADP from "sharp" platforms where drafts have been happening for months isn't ideal because I'm not playing in those leagues. I play with a mix of very smart, dedicated players and folks who are casual and looking to have a good time.

I think it depends where the draft is. If it's an online draft I'd use their rankings, but then go through and flag guys as either prime targets or guys to avoid at ADP based on your research(which should encompass many different places to gather info). The people in your league will likely be using those rankings from the platform during the draft so it's a good way to gauge whether you need to reach for your targets a round early or not, based on where you're picking.

If it's an in-person draft(like mine is) then there's really no telling where people are bringing their list from. In that case I think you can use any site you feel is reasonable but then modify accordingly. I've been using fantasypros because I think the site is easy to navigate and has a robust amount of information(ex past years fantasy stats) and it's easy to dump into excel. From there I modify the rankings based on my own research from all over the place and what guys I believe in or don't. My league is also superflex though so overall rankings from any site don't translate.

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1 hour ago, buzzkilloton said:

Always look at ADP from competitive leagues as a baseline.  If you're playing in soft leagues its not going to matter much you will just get massive value falling to you anyways. As far as format you can just look at NFC for adp data or sort by positions its all close enough te 1.5 in ffpc.

Doing what another poster mentioned and checking the presets on the site your drafting on to go against the adp is always interesting in soft leagues. Overall adp is just a guide make your own rankings based on guys you like and consume alot of podcast/youtube there is so much good stuff out there is good for casual leagues. 

 

Thanks man. 

I make tiers and ranking and consume lots of content. But personal rankings are only useful if you have solid ADP data so you can identify value when it falls to you.

I will look at a few of the sites you suggested. I mostly play on Yahoo but I have one MFL league that is my most competitive/complicated.

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1 hour ago, owenmills said:

I think it depends where the draft is. If it's an online draft I'd use their rankings, but then go through and flag guys as either prime targets or guys to avoid at ADP based on your research(which should encompass many different places to gather info). The people in your league will likely be using those rankings from the platform during the draft so it's a good way to gauge whether you need to reach for your targets a round early or not, based on where you're picking.

If it's an in-person draft(like mine is) then there's really no telling where people are bringing their list from. In that case I think you can use any site you feel is reasonable but then modify accordingly. I've been using fantasypros because I think the site is easy to navigate and has a robust amount of information(ex past years fantasy stats) and it's easy to dump into excel. From there I modify the rankings based on my own research from all over the place and what guys I believe in or don't. My league is also superflex though so overall rankings from any site don't translate.

Thanks for the insight as well. This is really helpful. 

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3 hours ago, MingusDew said:

Honest question but if one mostly plays in home/private leagues than what ADP site should one use?

Underdog is best ball so that's not going to be accurate. And I believe that FFPC is TE premium. Moreover, relying on ADP from "sharp" platforms where drafts have been happening for months isn't ideal because I'm not playing in those leagues. I play with a mix of very smart, dedicated players and folks who are casual and looking to have a good time.

My main league is yahoo. I basically only look at yahoo for that league bc like Horse says above, people tend to follow the rankings where they’re drafting and mock a lot with those leading up to the draft. The other league is espn and I’ll go off espn ADP for that one

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23 hours ago, buzzkilloton said:

93 and 1150 is replaceable?  I guess if you play in 10man non ppr leagues thats WW fodder. In a 12 team PPR league where you can start 3-4WRs with flexes in consideration these kinda of players are gold. 

FFC already did the leg work on this one. Any WR that gets hot for certain stretches like a Renfrow/Elijah Moore/Amon-Ra did last season can easily replace and then some what DJM provides. I'll also add the he's benefitted from the loss of CMC the last two seasons. A healthy CMC probably really kills his weekly and season long upside.

Even if there's some positive TD regression its unlikely they are going to both go off in the same week. Im not really holding out hope that this offense takes a huge step forward, especially under a head coach that is among the favourites to be the first one fired.

 

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19 minutes ago, Evincar said:

FFC already did the leg work on this one. Any WR that gets hot for certain stretches like a Renfrow/Elijah Moore/Amon-Ra did last season can easily replace and then some what DJM provides. I'll also add the he's benefitted from the loss of CMC the last two seasons. A healthy CMC probably really kills his weekly and season long upside.

Even if there's some positive TD regression its unlikely they are going to both go off in the same week. Im not really holding out hope that this offense takes a huge step forward, especially under a head coach that is among the favourites to be the first one fired.

 

So all I need to do is scoop the next Hunter Renfrow who was coming off a 50 rec 2 td season when he exploded last season. Then I will draft Moore/St Brown and hold them until they break out and start them at the exact time they get going. Wait even better I wont hold St Brown/Moore I will just pick them up the right before the breakouts. 

Yeah you're right I'm not drafting WRs anymore. I'm just going to get all the breakout guys and win that way. 

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7 hours ago, Evincar said:

I'll also add the he's benefitted from the loss of CMC the last two seasons. A healthy CMC probably really kills his weekly and season long upside.

I went to look at the stats to confirm, and this doesn’t look correct. His best season catch and yardage-wise was 2019, which was also CMC’s best season. And was with Kyle Allen throwing for 3,300 yards.

His TD totals have been 2, 4, 4, and 4. So clearly pretty unaffected by whether CMC is there or not. 
The key will be whether Baker takes him to the next level, and it looks like CMC staying healthy would actually help him

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9 hours ago, buzzkilloton said:

So all I need to do is scoop the next Hunter Renfrow who was coming off a 50 rec 2 td season when he exploded last season. Then I will draft Moore/St Brown and hold them until they break out and start them at the exact time they get going. Wait even better I wont hold St Brown/Moore I will just pick them up the right before the breakouts. 

Yeah you're right I'm not drafting WRs anymore. I'm just going to get all the breakout guys and win that way. 

This is a really odd way to brag about your inability to evaluate WRs beyond the 4th round, identify breakouts, or work the waiver wire, but... I appreciate your honesty.

Was Hunter Renfrow hard for you to see coming?  When Henry Ruggs got kicked out of the NFL and the top WR role was open season... You did what?  Renfrow was already gone by then but the cause and effect is what I'll be going over.

When TJ Hockenson got hurt, and D.Swift got hurt, and the last man standing was the top rookie WR the Lions drafted vs the 5 year veteran they signed with a combined 19 catches since entering the league in 2016... You were like, "Man, I don't know which one to choose."?

You don't have to get every breakout right to replace DJ Moore.  DJ Moore is an incredible player who has been screwed with garbage QB play his entire career, but he's overcome and overproduced.  As a real world player, hrs a stud.  As a fantasy player... He's replaceable.

If you need help identifying this years benefactors, I can give you a head start.

Tyreek Hill is no longer on the Chiefs.  Every KC WR is being drafted after the 7th round.

D.Adams is no longer on the Packers.  Every GB WR is being drafted after the 8th round.

Hollywood Brown is no longer on the Ravens.  Every BAL WR is being drafted after the 7th round.

Russell Wilson is no longer on the Seahawks.  Every DEN WR is being drafted after the 5th round.

Speaking of Russ, Tyler Lockett, one of only 3 WRs to finish top 20 the past 3 years (K.Allen, M.Evans) paces the same stats as DJ Moore, but with double the TDs... Can be had in the 9th round.

Christian Kirk is no longer on the Cardinals, is in line to be the #1 for the Jags, currently going in the 10th round.

Now that you've already seen AmonRa breakout and out perform DJ Moore... Do you think he's an interesting investment in the 8th round?

With the exception of Lockett, none of the above are "talent" evaluations, they are just blatant holes that have opened up (like Renfrow and AmonRa last year) in which you can predictably see the path to fantasy relevant seasons.

AJ Brown isn't in TEN, Ridley isn't in ATL, Amari is now in CLE...

Jarvis Landry has matched DJ Moore for more than half his career (ironic that Baker is the reason he declined but I digress). Maybe Olave is the real deal, maybe Thomas is healthy, maybe Kamara doesn't get suspended... Landry is a 12th round pick.

Even people who can't evaluate talent, can follow the path to scenarios that are extremely likely to produce a 1k yard receiver.  They won't all work out, obviously, but why do we have to over complicate the process?

Someone on KC, GB, JAX, NYJ, NYG, SEA, DEN, DET, TEN, ATL, CLE, CHI, NE is going to be the top WR of their team, and every single one of these opportunities (sans Metcalf) can be drafted at half the price of DJ Moore.

DJ Moore is worth more, not because of his production, but because of how predictable his production is.  That's an important distinction to make, and it's definitely not something I'm arguing or disagreeing with.  Just because he's worth his price, doesn't mean it's automatically a good investment.

Full transparency, DJ Moore might be the benefactor of the void Baker will fill on CAR.  Perennial 1150 yard WR gets QB sidegrade, might be the catalyst for his best year yet.  That's perfectly reasonable to me.

Anyone can follow the path to potential winners from the voids created or filled by team moves this off season.  Just like you could have followed the path to get AmonRa, and Renfrow last year.

We go over this in the waiver wire thread every few weeks.  The first step is opportunity.  We can evaluate talent and production later, but identify the opportunity, make a pickup, and if you do this enough times, you will hit.

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9 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

This is a really odd way to brag about your inability to evaluate WRs beyond the 4th round, identify breakouts, or work the waiver wire, but... I appreciate your honesty.

Was Hunter Renfrow hard for you to see coming?  When Henry Ruggs got kicked out of the NFL and the top WR role was open season... You did what?  Renfrow was already gone by then but the cause and effect is what I'll be going over.

When TJ Hockenson got hurt, and D.Swift got hurt, and the last man standing was the top rookie WR the Lions drafted vs the 5 year veteran they signed with a combined 19 catches since entering the league in 2016... You were like, "Man, I don't know which one to choose."?

You don't have to get every breakout right to replace DJ Moore.  DJ Moore is an incredible player who has been screwed with garbage QB play his entire career, but he's overcome and overproduced.  As a real world player, hrs a stud.  As a fantasy player... He's replaceable.

If you need help identifying this years benefactors, I can give you a head start.

Tyreek Hill is no longer on the Chiefs.  Every KC WR is being drafted after the 7th round.

D.Adams is no longer on the Packers.  Every GB WR is being drafted after the 8th round.

Hollywood Brown is no longer on the Ravens.  Every BAL WR is being drafted after the 7th round.

Russell Wilson is no longer on the Seahawks.  Every DEN WR is being drafted after the 5th round.

Speaking of Russ, Tyler Lockett, one of only 3 WRs to finish top 20 the past 3 years (K.Allen, M.Evans) paces the same stats as DJ Moore, but with double the TDs... Can be had in the 9th round.

Christian Kirk is no longer on the Cardinals, is in line to be the #1 for the Jags, currently going in the 10th round.

Now that you've already seen AmonRa breakout and out perform DJ Moore... Do you think he's an interesting investment in the 8th round?

With the exception of Lockett, none of the above are "talent" evaluations, they are just blatant holes that have opened up (like Renfrow and AmonRa last year) in which you can predictably see the path to fantasy relevant seasons.

AJ Brown isn't in TEN, Ridley isn't in ATL, Amari is now in CLE...

Jarvis Landry has matched DJ Moore for more than half his career (ironic that Baker is the reason he declined but I digress). Maybe Olave is the real deal, maybe Thomas is healthy, maybe Kamara doesn't get suspended... Landry is a 12th round pick.

Even people who can't evaluate talent, can follow the path to scenarios that are extremely likely to produce a 1k yard receiver.  They won't all work out, obviously, but why do we have to over complicate the process?

Someone on KC, GB, JAX, NYJ, NYG, SEA, DEN, DET, TEN, ATL, CLE, CHI, NE is going to be the top WR of their team, and every single one of these opportunities (sans Metcalf) can be drafted at half the price of DJ Moore.

DJ Moore is worth more, not because of his production, but because of how predictable his production is.  That's an important distinction to make, and it's definitely not something I'm arguing or disagreeing with.  Just because he's worth his price, doesn't mean it's automatically a good investment.

Full transparency, DJ Moore might be the benefactor of the void Baker will fill on CAR.  Perennial 1150 yard WR gets QB sidegrade, might be the catalyst for his best year yet.  That's perfectly reasonable to me.

Anyone can follow the path to potential winners from the voids created or filled by team moves this off season.  Just like you could have followed the path to get AmonRa, and Renfrow last year.

We go over this in the waiver wire thread every few weeks.  The first step is opportunity.  We can evaluate talent and production later, but identify the opportunity, make a pickup, and if you do this enough times, you will hit.

Um no its just me saying it shouldnt be expecting to just easily hit on all the nut free agency WRs to replace the production of a talent like Moore. There is 11 other teams going after the same guys. 

Really doesnt matter how much you type its not going to talk me out of Moore being a big time talent that is high floor with a ceiling we havent seen. Hes well worth his ADP and I will keep drafting him.

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3 minutes ago, buzzkilloton said:

Um no its just me saying it shouldnt be expecting to just easily hit on all the nut free agency WRs to replace the production of a talent like Moore. There is 11 other teams going after the same guys. 

Really doesnt matter how much you type its not going to talk me out of Moore being a big time talent that is high floor with a ceiling we havent seen. Hes well worth his ADP and I will keep drafting him.

Believe it or not, I don't actually write my posts for the people I quote.  The people I quote are just the tools I use to set examples for lurkers and readers who are actually interested in learning.  🙃

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19 hours ago, buzzkilloton said:

So all I need to do is scoop the next Hunter Renfrow who was coming off a 50 rec 2 td season when he exploded last season. Then I will draft Moore/St Brown and hold them until they break out and start them at the exact time they get going. Wait even better I wont hold St Brown/Moore I will just pick them up the right before the breakouts. 

Yeah you're right I'm not drafting WRs anymore. I'm just going to get all the breakout guys and win that way. 

He has 13.8 and 14 PPG in PPR the last two seasons. The pretty replaceable especially who most likely your WR2. Heck in 2020 his own teammates  Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel had the similar PPG and were going much later in drafts and in Samuels case probably undrafted. So yeah very replaceable for a guy who is going the 3rd round. What exactly has materially changed to cause his ADP to actually increase after a very disappointing season?

I want upside in the 3rd round. Guys like Sutton, Mike Williams, Allen Robinson are going around the same range. Guy attached to elite QBs.

Im not going fight anyone who says DJ Moore is one of the most talented WRs in the league but for fantasy unless he gets a significant QB upgrade Im not buying in. I just dont have strong conviction in Baker Mayfield. 

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1 hour ago, Evincar said:

He has 13.8 and 14 PPG in PPR the last two seasons. The pretty replaceable especially who most likely your WR2. Heck in 2020 his own teammates  Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel had the similar PPG and were going much later in drafts and in Samuels case probably undrafted. So yeah very replaceable for a guy who is going the 3rd round. What exactly has materially changed to cause his ADP to actually increase after a very disappointing season?

I want upside in the 3rd round. Guys like Sutton, Mike Williams, Allen Robinson are going around the same range. Guy attached to elite QBs.

Im not going fight anyone who says DJ Moore is one of the most talented WRs in the league but for fantasy unless he gets a significant QB upgrade Im not buying in. I just dont have strong conviction in Baker Mayfield. 

DJ Moore is 25 years old. Hes never played with a QB as good as Baker. Hes put up 1150+ yards for three seasons in a row. He has upside and a high floor.

Not sure where you're getting projections that show those WRs have upside and a 25 yo DJ Moore doesnt.  Its actually a absurd take to me. Maybe fantays pros again. I dont like to argue your projection site since everyone has there own formula.  How about something that has proven historically to be pretty good vegas props,

Real money action on the betting lines on these said WRs:

DJ Moore 1100yards 4.5 tds

M. Williams 999 6.5

Arob 825 6.5 

Sutton 925 5.5

 

Amazing somehow Moore has less upside. No way he ends up with the most receptions AGAIN most yards AGAIN and somehow falls into the end zone a couple more times.  Moore has the least upside when hes the youngest WR of the group! 

 

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Just now, MingusDew said:

Word to that. Unfortunately we aren’t going to ever see their ceilings with the likes of Baker Mayfield and Carson Wentz. 

Wentz gave 130 targets to Pittman last season who had a decent year. Hes the best guy Terry M has played with. Not saying Wentz is good but I wont be surprised to see him have his best season.

Moore is a guy who has got it done with worse QBs then Baker. Hes not going to get worse due to him. Baker hasnt given out massive WR seasons yet but he also played for Cleveland a team who wont even let Nick Chubb loose.

I look at a player like J.Landry(since i was just checking Bakers past WRs) as one comparison of many you can find. He was a consistent producer who played with bad QBs that was getting 90 1100 but not many TDs his first few seasons . Then his age 25 year with a corpse of Jay Cutler he put up 112 rec 1k+ and 9 TDs. Moore could do a season like this and have more yards then Landry. When guys are good multiple years and havent hit their age curve where they peak you have to expect the best season is going to come. 

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2 hours ago, buzzkilloton said:

DJ Moore is 25 years old. Hes never played with a QB as good as Baker. Hes put up 1150+ yards for three seasons in a row. He has upside and a high floor.

Not sure where you're getting projections that show those WRs have upside and a 25 yo DJ Moore doesnt.  Its actually a absurd take to me. Maybe fantays pros again. I dont like to argue your projection site since everyone has there own formula.  How about something that has proven historically to be pretty good vegas props,

Real money action on the betting lines on these said WRs:

DJ Moore 1100yards 4.5 tds

M. Williams 999 6.5

Arob 825 6.5 

Sutton 925 5.5

 

Amazing somehow Moore has less upside. No way he ends up with the most receptions AGAIN most yards AGAIN and somehow falls into the end zone a couple more times.  Moore has the least upside when hes the youngest WR of the group! 

 

1150 yards is not a floor. Its his average. He could finish above that or finish below that benchmark. I dont see that much upside with a pretty average at best QB. He is due for positive TD regression but I dont think thats enough to move the needle to take him over those WRs I listed with better QBs in better offenses.

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9 minutes ago, Evincar said:

1150 yards is not a floor. Its his average. He could finish above that or finish below that benchmark. I dont see that much upside with a pretty average at best QB. He is due for positive TD regression but I dont think thats enough to move the needle to take him over those WRs I listed with better QBs in better offenses.

If a player puts up 1150 yards with turds at QB his age 22,23,and 24 seasons you can assume barring injury thats what hes going to do again. WRs peak seasons on average come from the years 25-28 Moore is just now entering that level. 

https://apexfantasyleagues.com/peak-age-for-nfl-wide-receiver/#:~:text=For 225 PPR fantasy points,becoming less and less frequent.

  • For elite top-three WR production, the average age was 26, and 63% of qualifiers were between the ages of 25-29.
  • When drafting WRs in fantasy football, age is very important – give the edge to the younger receivers, especially those who will be playing the season at ages 25-28.

 

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15 minutes ago, buzzkilloton said:

If a player puts up 1150 yards with turds at QB his age 22,23,and 24 seasons you can assume barring injury thats what hes going to do again. WRs peak seasons on average come from the years 25-28 Moore is just now entering that level. 

https://apexfantasyleagues.com/peak-age-for-nfl-wide-receiver/#:~:text=For 225 PPR fantasy points,becoming less and less frequent.

  • For elite top-three WR production, the average age was 26, and 63% of qualifiers were between the ages of 25-29.
  • When drafting WRs in fantasy football, age is very important – give the edge to the younger receivers, especially those who will be playing the season at ages 25-28.

 

Hopkins put up consecutive seasons of 1210 and 1521 yards with turd QBs from 2014-2015. In 2016 he stayed healthy and put up an absolute dud with 954 yards. Clearly that "safe" floor evaporated. We has so much historical data to suggest otherwise that just because a player put up multiple seasons of at least X amount of yards, it doesn't mean he is considered safe to finish with that amount again.

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Just now, Evincar said:

Hopkins put consecutive seasons of 1210 and 1521 yards with turd QBs from 2014-2015. In 2016 he stayed healthy and put an absolute dud with 954 yards. Clearly that "safe" floor evaporated. We has so much historical data to suggest otherwise that just because a player put up multiple seasons of at least X amount of yards, it doesn't mean he is considered safe to finish with that amount again.

This is a dumb statement. Of course it doesnt mean hes 100% going to get the same numbers. It just means its very likely hes going to repeat in what looks to be a better situation while hes still improving as a player. He just did this three seasons in a row with Cmac without Cmac with all crap QBs. 

By your logic every players floor is zero points. Any player can get hurt so no floor is safe to be stated.

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For the record I like all of Sutton,M.Williams,Moore, and Arob. I've actually ranked them 1.Williams 2.Moore 3.Sutton 4.Arob. I just find it strange some posters take the youngest player here and say he has no upside but the others do. Sure the other guys have better QBs but Moore is going to get tons of targets and IMO is the most talented of these WRs. 

I feel like all of these guys could offer you WR1 upside. Looking at underdog ADP it seems like their priced fairly:

Mwill 30.5 ADP

Moore 32.8

Sutton 33.7

Arob 40

Alot to like about all four of these guys.  Arob is the most to be concerned about because he could just be washed but i like his upside in the new offense.  The WR guru Matt Harmon from Reception perception thinks Arob isnt washed so I'm still buying at the adp.

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