DJ Moore 2022 Outlook

[Pastor3]

54 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

You DO NOT come to Las Vegas and talk to a man like Damon Arnette like THAT!  (That's why he only had 4 catches for 54 yards)

https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401220370

absolutely next level ish right there - well played, Eqqi ✌️

 

[Nap Time]

• DJ Moore was 4th in unrealized yards last year.
• Sam Darnold ranked 31st in deep accuracy.
• Baker Mayfield has been Top-10 in deep accuracy across all 3 healthy seasons.

https://twitter.com/SalVetriDFS/status/1555175789787840512

 

[MingusDew]

Dude just produces. Reminds me of Brandin Cooks in that way.

He will be an alpha stud again this year because that’s what he does. Third round is a fair price. 

[buzzkilloton]

I'm in on Moore again for sure. I've been pulling alot of back end first round picks this season. When it comes back to me in the 3rd-4th I'm finding Williams/Moore/Sutton falling to me and I'm hoping to get two of the three on those picks. 

I'm hoping in year five with the best QB hes played with in Baker he takes that next step and gets 100+ 1250 and like 7TDs. 

 

'

[JE7HorseGod]

You know what's wild?  The difference between DJ Moore and Tyreek Hill is about 4.5 yards a game in terms of career averages.

Dude's just gotta find a way to get in the end zone more than 4 times. 

[buzzkilloton]

7 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

You know what's wild?  The difference between DJ Moore and Tyreek Hill is about 4.5 yards a game in terms of career averages.

Dude's just gotta find a way to get in the end zone more than 4 times. 

Put Moore on KC were drafting him early 2nd round. Guys a massive talent whos been wasted with bad QBs.

His TD o/u is only 4.5 =(. Likely not getting to that 7 I'm hoping for. That said if anyone is due some positive TD regression its Moore.

[Evincar]

3 hours ago, MingusDew said:

Dude just produces. Reminds me of Brandin Cooks in that way.

He will be an alpha stud again this year because that’s what he does. Third round is a fair price. 

Given he's produced very replaceable numbers the last few seasons, 3rd round is pretty steep. I think Baker should be a slight upgrade but keep in mind that was also said about Teddy B and Darnold.

[MingusDew]

23 minutes ago, Evincar said:

Given he's produced very replaceable numbers the last few seasons, 3rd round is pretty steep. I think Baker should be a slight upgrade but keep in mind that was also said about Teddy B and Darnold.

He really just needs the touchdowns. Those will come at some point. 

[buzzkilloton]

34 minutes ago, Evincar said:

Given he's produced very replaceable numbers the last few seasons, 3rd round is pretty steep. I think Baker should be a slight upgrade but keep in mind that was also said about Teddy B and Darnold.

93 and 1150 is replaceable?  I guess if you play in 10man non ppr leagues thats WW fodder. In a 12 team PPR league where you can start 3-4WRs with flexes in consideration these kinda of players are gold. 

Edited August 12, 2022 by buzzkilloton

[buzzkilloton]

To put DJ Moores season into perspective it was good for WR 18 or RB 12. Thats with only 4 TDs and Sam Darnold at QB.

I think with Baker being a improvement and Moore only being 25 we see him break into the WR1 category this season. Were getting a really fair price at his ADP currently.

[FFCollusion]

8 minutes ago, buzzkilloton said:

93 and 1150 is replaceable?  I guess if you play in 10man non ppr leagues thats WW fodder. In a 12 team PPR league where you can start 3-4WRs with flexes in consideration these kinda of players are gold. 

I don't think the math supports your feelings.

93/1150 isn't great if it only comes with 4 TDs.

In 2021 he was WR28 on a per game basis.
In 2020 he was WR27 on a per game basis.

So, maybe a flex player in 2WR + WR/RB/TE flex leagues.

But he's currently being drafted as WR17.

93/1150 is only 5 catches for 67 yards per game.  If that only comes with a TD 1 out of every 4 games, then... I don't think it's far fetched to say that on any given week, you can find a guy who has just as much likelihood to score 11-12 points.

The difference is Moore does it every week reliably.  Does that mean it's not replaceable though?  I dunno, I guess that's open for interpretation.

I'm a big fan of DJM and what he's done so far in his career, it's truly impressive given his QB play.  But I absolutely despise Baker, and so... I'm out.

I said it earlier in the thread though, one of these years Moore is going to do his typical 90/1150, but actually get 8-10TDs, and he'll be a low end WR1.

Is this that year?  Ehh... again, I hate Baker, so I'll take the under.  I think his targets, catches, and yards go down, but he has a career high in TDs.  Still a low end WR2 on the season, WR3 on a per game basis, which means at his ADP, he's a complete DND for me.  I can name probably a dozen WRs I think have the same range of outcomes as DJ Moore, who are 5 rounds cheaper.  Opportunity cost is the name of the game.

You pay a 4th for Moore, I pay a 5th for Cooks/Thomas/Williams.  When we go head to head, do you feel you have a distinct advantage at WR?  Because I don't.
You pay a 4th for Moore, i pay a 6th for A.Rob/C.Sutton.  When we go head to head, do you feel you have a distinct advantage at WR?  Because I don't.
You pay a 4th for Moore, i pay a 7th for Amari/Mooney.  When we go head to head, do you feel you have a distinct advantage at WR?  Because I don't.
You pay a 4th for Moore, i pay a 8th for JuJu/Amon Ra.  When we go head to head, do you feel you have a distinct advantage at WR?  Because I don't.
You pay a 4th for Moore, i pay a 9th for Aiyuk/Lockett  When we go head to head, do you feel you have a distinct advantage at WR?  Because I don't.
You pay a 4th for Moore, i pay a 10th for Toney/Kirk/London.  When we go head to head, do you feel you have a distinct advantage at WR?  Because I ... might.

Now, that doesn't mean I think these players will have a better seasons than Moore, or that they should be ranked higher than him, or that Moore should have a 10th round ADP... it just showcases what this game looks like, on a WEEKLY basis.  And why I lean towards difference makers in those early rounds.  Is Moore a difference maker?  Not to me.  He's a damn good player though.

If you do this same exercise with almost every other position, the answer of having a distinct advantage, is usually a clear "yes".

This isn't a knock on DJ Moore himself, this is a broader discussion about what the WR2 landscape really is in fantasy.

On a per game basis, Waddle was the 15th best WR last year, he averaged 15.5 points per game.
On a per game basis, Amari was the 32nd best WR last year, he averaged 13.5 points per game.

2 fantasy points, separated 17 different WRs.

2 fantasy points, over 17 games, is 34 points.  That's 10 catches, 120 yards, and 2 TDs.
Pause for a moment... the separation of 17WRs from 15-32, is .58 catches for 7 yards a game, and 1 TD every 8 games.  That massive swing from being 'almost a WR1' to 'not even flex worthy' is 1 catch for 14 yards, every 2 weeks.  You will never ever notice the difference on a weekly basis.  It will only show up when the season is over, and you're looking at the cumulative stats.  The chances of that having any impact on your win/loss column, in any individual matchup you have this year, is nearly non existent.

When people constantly tell you that "WR is deep" what you need to understand is that WR is flooded, but only in the middle section.  It's a very important distinction to make.

Obviously, we still draft these players, because we're all just making educated guesses, about which of these 20 WR2s, fall into the endzone a few extra times, and wind up being WR8-14.

If Moore is your pick, that's all good.  I wish you the best of luck.

[buzzkilloton]

35 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

I don't think the math supports your feelings.

93/1150 isn't great if it only comes with 4 TDs.

In 2021 he was WR28 on a per game basis.
In 2020 he was WR27 on a per game basis.

So, maybe a flex player in 2WR + WR/RB/TE flex leagues.

But he's currently being drafted as WR17.

93/1150 is only 5 catches for 67 yards per game.  If that only comes with a TD 1 out of every 4 games, then... I don't think it's far fetched to say that on any given week, you can find a guy who has just as much likelihood to score 11-12 points.

The difference is Moore does it every week reliably.  Does that mean it's not replaceable though?  I dunno, I guess that's open for interpretation.

I'm a big fan of DJM and what he's done so far in his career, it's truly impressive given his QB play.  But I absolutely despise Baker, and so... I'm out.

I said it earlier in the thread though, one of these years Moore is going to do his typical 90/1150, but actually get 8-10TDs, and he'll be a low end WR1.

Is this that year?  Ehh... again, I hate Baker, so I'll take the under.  I think his targets, catches, and yards go down, but he has a career high in TDs.  Still a low end WR2 on the season, WR3 on a per game basis, which means at his ADP, he's a complete DND for me.  I can name probably a dozen WRs I think have the same range of outcomes as DJ Moore, who are 5 rounds cheaper.  Opportunity cost is the name of the game.

You pay a 4th for Moore, I pay a 5th for Cooks/Thomas/Williams.  When we go head to head, do you feel you have a distinct advantage at WR?  Because I don't.
You pay a 4th for Moore, i pay a 6th for A.Rob/C.Sutton.  When we go head to head, do you feel you have a distinct advantage at WR?  Because I don't.
You pay a 4th for Moore, i pay a 7th for Amari/Mooney.  When we go head to head, do you feel you have a distinct advantage at WR?  Because I don't.
You pay a 4th for Moore, i pay a 8th for JuJu/Amon Ra.  When we go head to head, do you feel you have a distinct advantage at WR?  Because I don't.
You pay a 4th for Moore, i pay a 9th for Aiyuk/Lockett  When we go head to head, do you feel you have a distinct advantage at WR?  Because I don't.
You pay a 4th for Moore, i pay a 10th for Toney/Kirk/London.  When we go head to head, do you feel you have a distinct advantage at WR?  Because I ... might.

Now, that doesn't mean I think these players will have a better seasons than Moore, or that they should be ranked higher than him, or that Moore should have a 10th round ADP... it just showcases what this game looks like, on a WEEKLY basis.  And why I lean towards difference makers in those early rounds.  Is Moore a difference maker?  Not to me.  He's a damn good player though.

If you do this same exercise with almost every other position, the answer of having a distinct advantage, is usually a clear "yes".

This isn't a knock on DJ Moore himself, this is a broader discussion about what the WR2 landscape really is in fantasy.

On a per game basis, Waddle was the 15th best WR last year, he averaged 15.5 points per game.
On a per game basis, Amari was the 32nd best WR last year, he averaged 13.5 points per game.

2 fantasy points, separated 17 different WRs.

2 fantasy points, over 17 games, is 34 points.  That's 10 catches, 120 yards, and 2 TDs.
Pause for a moment... the separation of 17WRs from 15-32, is .58 catches for 7 yards a game, and 1 TD every 8 games.  That massive swing from being 'almost a WR1' to 'not even flex worthy' is 1 catch for 14 yards, every 2 weeks.  You will never ever notice the difference on a weekly basis.  It will only show up when the season is over, and you're looking at the cumulative stats.  The chances of that having any impact on your win/loss column, in any individual matchup you have this year, is nearly non existent.

When people constantly tell you that "WR is deep" what you need to understand is that WR is flooded, but only in the middle section.  It's a very important distinction to make.

Obviously, we still draft these players, because we're all just making educated guesses, about which of these 20 WR2s, fall into the endzone a few extra times, and wind up being WR8-14.

If Moore is your pick, that's all good.  I wish you the best of luck.

Every league I play in which is ALOT allows you to play 4WRS there all mixes of 2flex 2RB 2WR 1TE or 3WR 2rb 1TE 1flex ppr. Everyones leagues setting may be diff but the big pro tournaments these days all are in these formats as well. In this format players like Moore are at a premium because most players want to start WRs in the flex spot and there isnt enough high volume target hogs to go around. 

The thing that seperates Moore and alot of the guys after him is not only does he have a high floor like a Cooks he also has a ceiling we havent seen. Hes just 25 years old and Baker is going to be the best QB he has ever played with. His talent if off the charts you're drafting for a potential breakout that hasnt come with the floor. If you just look at last years stats ignore players ages and situations and shrug then sure he is going a round too early you could just take Cooks and get the same thing.

[buzzkilloton]

@FFCollusion

Your ADPs are off by a ton by the way  M.Williams ADP is 3 picks after Moore on NFC hes going a few picks ahead of him on underdog. Sutton is going right next to him on both sites.  Arob is a 4th rounder not a 6th Amon ra is a 5th  Tony is going way earlier. You might want to get this up to date before you start drafting it looks like you're projecting guys to go at least a  round later then they're. Could be why your so off Moore! 

 

I've been doing most my drafting on FFPC but I can assure you that even with the TE premium over there these ADPs are in line with my actual drafts.

 

https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/football

 

https://www.4for4.com/underdog-adp

Edited August 12, 2022 by buzzkilloton

[FFCollusion]

12 minutes ago, buzzkilloton said:

@FFCollusion

Your ADPs are off by a ton by the way  M.Williams ADP is 3 picks after Moore on NFC hes going a few picks ahead of him on underdog. Sutton is going right next to him on both sites.  Arob is a 4th rounder not a 6th Amon ra is a 5th  Tony is going way earlier. You might want to get this up to date before you start drafting it looks like you're projecting guys to go at least a  round later then they're. Could be why your so off Moore! 

 

I've been doing most my drafting on FFPC but I can assure you that even with the TE premium over there these ADPs are in line with my actual drafts.

 

https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/football

 

https://www.4for4.com/underdog-adp

You are free to use whatever site you prefer, but you do not dictate what site I use. ✌️

[buzzkilloton]

3 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

You are free to use whatever site you prefer, but you do not dictate what site I use. ✌️

Where do you get ADP?

If you're going to tell me you use a site that takes yahoo/ESPN/fantrax/MFL/etc and combines it I'm going to tell you that is useless data. The vast majority of those sites are free players who dont even draft their teams. Its autodrafted based on sites rankings that rarely get updated. 

The reason using sites like underdog/FPPC/NFC for ADP is by far the best is its all premium contest and real humans drafting. People showing up to these drafts are mostly serious players drafting the best teams possible. 

[Grungejrrgv]

4 minutes ago, buzzkilloton said:

Where do you get ADP?

If you're going to tell me you use a site that takes yahoo/ESPN/fantrax/MFL/etc and combines it I'm going to tell you that is useless data. The vast majority of those sites are free players who dont even draft their teams. Its autodrafted based on sites rankings that rarely get updated. 

The reason using sites like underdog/FPPC/NFC for ADP is by far the best is its all premium contest and real humans drafting. People showing up to these drafts are mostly serious players drafting the best teams possible. 

I think he's hinting that he doesn't play with serious players

[buzzkilloton]

6 minutes ago, Grungejrrgv said:

I think he's hinting that he doesn't play with serious players

Oh I see maybe thats the case. 

I think in softer leagues if every WR is falling a round+ from those ADPS then Moore is going to fall with those WRs. Maybe the more "name brand guys" get pushed up like M.Thomas,Hopkins, and Godwin. I would expect guys like Moore,Sutton,and Jeudy who arent as known to maybe fall more then expected. 

[buzzkilloton]

Oh man I just looked at the "fantasypros consensus" as they call it ADP data. This is some pretty lol stuff. Nobody is drafting like this right not now. This is pure garbage even soft home leagues will be sharper then this adp. 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/overall.php

Moore 46,Williams 49,Sutton 58,Arob 64,Jeudy 70 G.Davis 72

Yeah if you're playing with afk robots that are drafting on 2month old site rankings then dont draft Moore at his pick 35 ADP on premium sites. You can simply wait 3 rounds and scoop up Arob and Jeudy/G.Davis and then come back and get your "sleepers" in Bateman at 86 and Toney at 110. 

Edited August 12, 2022 by buzzkilloton

[buzzkilloton]

36 minutes ago, buzzkilloton said:

Oh man I just looked at the "fantasypros consensus" as they call it ADP data. This is some pretty lol stuff. Nobody is drafting like this right not now. This is pure garbage even soft home leagues will be sharper then this adp. 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/overall.php

Moore 46,Williams 49,Sutton 58,Arob 64,Jeudy 70 G.Davis 72

Yeah if you're playing with afk robots that are drafting on 2month old site rankings then dont draft Moore at his pick 35 ADP on premium sites. You can simply wait 3 rounds and scoop up Arob and Jeudy/G.Davis and then come back and get your "sleepers" in Bateman at 86 and Toney at 110. 

Sorry to post again on this but I just realized the data i hit wasnt even for PPR. The site is so glitchy that it wont switch to PPR data consistently when you click it. The data I posted was for standard!  Come to find out fantasy pros ADP is more worthless then i ever imagined. 

So I'm like damn I'm about to look dumb. Well low and behold this actually shows how completely awful and useless fantasy pros is.

SWITCHING FROM STANDARD TO PPR ADP DATA:

*Moore went up a whopping 2 spots to 44

*M.Will went down 8 to 52

*Sutton dropped to 62 so a drop of 4 because he gets more points

*Jeudy went up to 61 so 9 spots hes now better then Sutton! 

*Arob went down 8 spots to 71. How does Arob get worse in PPR from standard?

*Davis dropped 4 spots to 76

*Bateman 92nd he literally went from 86 to 92 because he gets a ppr? WTF is this

*Toney 115 5 spots down

Whats funny is their is alot of people who think fantasy pros rankings and ADP are the standard. This is complete trash and makes no logical sense whatsoever. WRs are NOT getting drafted later in PPR then standard.

Ok sorry for the ADP rant. I just think ADP is ultra important if you're trying to say dont draft XXX draft XXX their going in the same spot. Where you take data from matters and there is alot of bad information out there.

 

Edited August 12, 2022 by buzzkilloton

[owenmills]

Some of the things you ranted about above seem perfectly logical. Why wouldn't Mike Williams drop when you switch from standard to PPR? He makes his hay with yard and TDs more than receptions. 

The rankings you posted as the authority say they're for best ball and seem to have WRs much higher than most sites. They have Davante Adams at #10 overall and Najee Harris at 11. Don't know about that.....

Fantasypros is actually a really useful site with tons of info and pretty easy to navigate. I generally look at positional rankings instead of overall though, because my league is superflex w/ keepers so I have to manipulate overall rankings quite a bit. But I've never found their stuff egregiously bad. You may not agree with everything but their ADPs are an average from multiple sites(yahoo, fantrax, FFC, sleeper). They also have a pretty robust stats section to look at past year's fantasy stats. It shows fantasy PPG which you don't see in a lot of places and is a very valuable piece of data that many people ignore in lieu of total fantasy points. I've found it freezes sometimes using Microsoft's web browser but on Chrome or Firefox it's fine.

People would be wise to reference multiple sites though when researching and making their own rankings, because you never know where your leaguemates are looking and more data is always better.

Re: DJ Moore, fantasypros is sleeping on him a bit(WR18) which is probably the case in many places, and I love him this year. Although looking at his Vegas prop bet lines gives me a little pause. I'm high on him because I think he's really good and just needs that positive regression in TDs to blow up, but they have his over/under set at 4.5 so they obv aren't very confident in that happening and Vegas typically knows more than me.

[JE7HorseGod]

This is going to sound silly to y'all and I hesitate to mention it, but frequently I pay attention to where Yahoo stacks their predraft rankings to help me guide ADP choices - let's face it even with sharp people, people are suggestible and visual animals.

Anywho, in those rankings Moore has been bumped up I believe to 30, so I think in most Yahoo snake draft rooms you can probably expect him to go off the board in the 3rd round.  YMMV.

[buzzkilloton]

25 minutes ago, owenmills said:

Some of the things you ranted about above seem perfectly logical. Why wouldn't Mike Williams drop when you switch from standard to PPR? He makes his hay with yard and TDs more than receptions. 

The rankings you posted as the authority say they're for best ball and seem to have WRs much higher than most sites. They have Davante Adams at #10 overall and Najee Harris at 11. Don't know about that.....

Fantasypros is actually a really useful site with tons of info and pretty easy to navigate. I generally look at positional rankings instead of overall though, because my league is superflex w/ keepers so I have to manipulate overall rankings quite a bit. But I've never found their stuff egregiously bad. You may not agree with everything but their ADPs are an average from multiple sites(yahoo, fantrax, FFC, sleeper). They also have a pretty robust stats section to look at past year's fantasy stats. It shows fantasy PPG which you don't see in a lot of places and is a very valuable piece of data that many people ignore in lieu of total fantasy points. I've found it freezes sometimes using Microsoft's web browser but on Chrome or Firefox it's fine.

People would be wise to reference multiple sites though when researching and making their own rankings, because you never know where your leaguemates are looking and more data is always better.

Re: DJ Moore, fantasypros is sleeping on him a bit(WR18) which is probably the case in many places, and I love him this year. Although looking at his Vegas prop bet lines gives me a little pause. I'm high on him because I think he's really good and just needs that positive regression in TDs to blow up, but they have his over/under set at 4.5 so they obv aren't very confident in that happening and Vegas typically knows more than me.

Najees goes at 11 in highstakes drafts. I just did one a week ago a 350.00 FFPC he went 11 and I took Cook pick 12. 

Nah fantasypros is crap like 10 better places to get content from. That ADP as I said is only good if you want ADP from afks/bots in unfilled leagues. NFC,underdog, and FFPC is the only ADP that matters for this reason.

[owenmills]

3 minutes ago, buzzkilloton said:

Najees goes at 11 in highstakes drafts. I just did one a week ago a 350.00 FFPC he went 11 and I took Cook pick 12. 

Nah fantasypros is crap like 10 better places to get content from. That ADP as I said is only good if you want ADP from afks/bots in unfilled leagues. NFC,underdog, and FFPC is the only ADP that matters for this reason.

We’ll see on Najee. Barkley over Swift is also a big mistake IMO

You’re entitled to your opinion on sites. I also remember you as the guy who spammed the Mixon thread last year saying he was a horrible pick though…

[buzzkilloton]

1 minute ago, owenmills said:

We’ll see on Najee. Barkley over Swift is also a big mistake IMO

You’re entitled to your opinion on sites. I also remember you as the guy who spammed the Mixon thread last year saying he was a horrible pick though…

BS I owned multiple shares of Mixon last season and was positive on him where he was falling. I mean I wasnt thrilled I was getting him in the early 3rd but I drafted him more then once and posted about it!

Also its weak to try to call someone out about being wrong on one player in another players thread. Everyone is wrong from time to time. That said this case is even weaker because your trying to be pro fantasypros while making a false accusation. 

[MingusDew]

Honest question but if one mostly plays in home/private leagues than what ADP site should one use?

Underdog is best ball so that's not going to be accurate. And I believe that FFPC is TE premium. Moreover, relying on ADP from "sharp" platforms where drafts have been happening for months isn't ideal because I'm not playing in those leagues. I play with a mix of very smart, dedicated players and folks who are casual and looking to have a good time.