DJ Moore 2022 Outlook

[Whitecloud0101]

hate even creating this thread. anything to see here other than his typical boring wr16 finish or so? i hate drafting these kinds of guys..love DJ’s game though…the broken record spins, qb, qb,qb..i guess a healthy cmc may be the lone bright spot..for now

Edited June 13, 2022 by Whitecloud0101

[BrianM]

Ugh he's so good but how can one have faith?  He broke my spirt a couple years back when I went all in and watched Teddy B leave DJ points on the table every single week.   Now his QB's are even worse.   At least he god paid.   

[K197040]

2 hours ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

hate even creating this thread. anything to see here other than his typical boring wr16 finish or so? i hate drafting these kinds of guys..love DJ’s game though…the broken record spins, qb, qb,qb..i guess a healthy cmc may be the lone bright spot..for now

"typical wr16 finish"?   In four years, he's only finished as a top 24 WR twice.

[USWAY]

In 2021, I had this guy as the #37 ranked player on my board going into the draft. When I was up in the 5th round at pick 52 (Non-PPR) he was there. Cooper Kupp, my 47th ranked player, was also there. 

Although he was steal at that point based on my rankings, in the heat of the moment I realized this guy just wasn't going to live up to his talent with Darnold at QB. My best bet at a high-end player was Kupp with Stafford so I took him. The rest is history.

Literally nothing has changed at QB. Draft accordingly.

Edited June 13, 2022 by USWAY

[Whitecloud0101]

24 minutes ago, K197040 said:

"typical wr16 finish"?   In four years, he's only finished as a top 24 WR twice.

just a guess..more so my point then

[FFCollusion]

15 minutes ago, K197040 said:

"typical wr16 finish"?   In four years, he's only finished as a top 24 WR twice.

That's the problem with judging a players finishing position rather than their production.

In the past 3 seasons Dj has produced

87\1175\4

66\1193\4

93|1157\4

Regardless of how the field bounces around him altering his overall finish, the production is nearly identical each year.

Do you care if his 82\1200\5 season results in 10th or 20th?  Are you drafting finish spot or expected production?

I don't want to go into draft strategy or analysis, but long story short, WR12 and WR24 and everything in-between are usually decided by 2 TDs either direction, or a few catches here and there.  They are indistinguishable more often than not during the season.  It's not until the season is over and you look at the sum of 17-18 weeks that you can even differentiate them.

Trying to organize how each will finish in this range is a fools errand.  This is why tiers are so valuable.

DJ could easily become a top 12 WR, he's 100% being held back by his TD upside, or lack thereof.  If I can safely bank on 80\1100 no matter what loser throws him the ball, and know that a few TDs going his way turns him into a top 12 WR, for a guy you can get in the 5th round, at WR21... That's a solid flex pick, or your 2nd\3rd WR on draft day.  Any higher than 5th is probably a deal breaker though.

If Baker shows up, God forbid, I won't touch him in the 5th either.

[Whitecloud0101]

3 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

That's the problem with judging a players finishing position rather than their production.

In the past 3 seasons Dj has produced

87\1175\4

66\1193\4

93|1157\4

Regardless of how the field bounces around him altering his overall finish, the production is nearly identical each year.

Do you care if his 82\1200\5 season results in 10th or 20th?  Are you drafting finish spot or expected production?

I don't want to go into draft strategy or analysis, but long story short, WR12 and WR24 and everything in-between are usually decided by 2 TDs either direction, or a few catches here and there.  They are indistinguishable more often than not during the season.  It's not until the season is over and you look at the sum of 17-18 weeks that you can even differentiate them.

Trying to organize how each will finish in this range is a fools errand.  This is why tiers are so valuable.

DJ could easily become a top 12 WR, he's 100% being held back by his TD upside, or lack thereof.  If I can safely bank on 80\1100 no matter what loser throws him the ball, and know that a few TDs going his way turns him into a top 12 WR, for a guy you can get in the 5th round, at WR21... That's a solid flex pick, or your 2nd\3rd WR on draft day.  Any higher than 5th is probably a deal breaker though.

If Baker shows up, God forbid, I won't touch him in the 5th either.

solid. just took him at 5.4 so we shall see….

[K197040]

5 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

That's the problem with judging a players finishing position rather than their production.

In the past 3 seasons Dj has produced

87\1175\4

66\1193\4

93|1157\4

Regardless of how the field bounces around him altering his overall finish, the production is nearly identical each year.

Do you care if his 82\1200\5 season results in 10th or 20th?  Are you drafting finish spot or expected production?

I don't want to go into draft strategy or analysis, but long story short, WR12 and WR24 and everything in-between are usually decided by 2 TDs either direction, or a few catches here and there.  They are indistinguishable more often than not during the season.  It's not until the season is over and you look at the sum of 17-18 weeks that you can even differentiate them.

Trying to organize how each will finish in this range is a fools errand.  This is why tiers are so valuable.

DJ could easily become a top 12 WR, he's 100% being held back by his TD upside, or lack thereof.  If I can safely bank on 80\1100 no matter what loser throws him the ball, and know that a few TDs going his way turns him into a top 12 WR, for a guy you can get in the 5th round, at WR21... That's a solid flex pick, or your 2nd\3rd WR on draft day.  Any higher than 5th is probably a deal breaker though.

If Baker shows up, God forbid, I won't touch him in the 5th either.

I mean his yards and TDs are almost identical.  But there's a difference in PPR between 66 catches and 93.    I don't really disagree with anything else you said.  I think he's a good player with still some potential.   But saying, "typical 16 WR finish" just isn't accurate. 

[Whitecloud0101]

15 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

That's the problem with judging a players finishing position rather than their production.

In the past 3 seasons Dj has produced

87\1175\4

66\1193\4

93|1157\4

Regardless of how the field bounces around him altering his overall finish, the production is nearly identical each year.

Do you care if his 82\1200\5 season results in 10th or 20th?  Are you drafting finish spot or expected production?

I don't want to go into draft strategy or analysis, but long story short, WR12 and WR24 and everything in-between are usually decided by 2 TDs either direction, or a few catches here and there.  They are indistinguishable more often than not during the season.  It's not until the season is over and you look at the sum of 17-18 weeks that you can even differentiate them.

Trying to organize how each will finish in this range is a fools errand.  This is why tiers are so valuable.

DJ could easily become a top 12 WR, he's 100% being held back by his TD upside, or lack thereof.  If I can safely bank on 80\1100 no matter what loser throws him the ball, and know that a few TDs going his way turns him into a top 12 WR, for a guy you can get in the 5th round, at WR21... That's a solid flex pick, or your 2nd\3rd WR on draft day.  Any higher than 5th is probably a deal breaker though.

If Baker shows up, God forbid, I won't touch him in the 5th either.

legit question—is sam darnold better than baker? if so, can’t be by much right

Edited June 14, 2022 by Whitecloud0101

[FFCollusion]

2 hours ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

legit question—is sam darnold better than baker? if so, can’t be by much right

It's... Complicated.  I don't have stats to back this up, and I'm not going to dig for any, so please understand this is purely my opinion.

As an NFL quarterback, purely in isolation... I believe Baker Mayfield is better than Sam Darnold.  Being a better QB though, doesn't always mean better results for the WR on the team, especially not in fantasy.

There's a sweet spot in fantasy where you want a QB to be just good enough to reliably, consistently, and effectively get the WR the ball, arguably to a fault, in a way that they will force the issue, take risks, blindly trust their WR, lock on to their safety blanket, or guys who fail to make reads and progressions, and either check down (if a slot WR) or throw to their first read every time.

Think Andy Dalton, or Ryan Fitzpatrick.  They are the types of guys who are at the same skill level of Baker, but they achieve their stats by being 70% risk 30% intelligence.  Baker may be just as skilled as them in any single aspect of playing QB, but he achieved his stats by 70% intelligence and... 0% risk.

Unfortunately, for that type of play style to work, you have to be as skill as Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning etc.  Those guys were so skilled, and had such good football IQ, they didn't have to force issues, they just produced on talent.

Baker is trying to be as smart as those guys, but genuinely lacks the skill to make it result in on field production.

Baker Mayfield, in my opinion, is the worst type of QB for fantasy production.  He takes zero risks and is a very conservative game manager.  I think he's skilled and intelligent, but he lacks the ability to do it in a way that gets his WRs smart production.  He also lacks the risks to get them dumb\lucky\garbage time production.

Long story short, I'd rather have a less skilled QB who makes dumb decisions and is willing to do whatever it takes to get my WR the ball, even if it's a flaw in their real world game.  Sam Darnold will get the ball to DJ Moore no matter what.  Baker Mayfield will look at him and say "oh he's not open, I'll take a sack."

Fantasy is a weird game in which WR production corresponds to the COS curve of QB play  Some of the best QB\WR seasons come from pure skill.  Some of them come because Jameis Winston or Eli Manning turn the ball over 30 and 27 times respectively because. But those were the best seasons Mike Evans or OBJ had in their entire careers.  Some come from Blake Bortles garbage time hero, but again, Allen Robinson's best season of his career.

Baker Mayfield is just the worst combination of the QB traits that don't translate to WR fantasy production.  You know the funniest part?  Baker used to be that QB.  He threw 35INTs in his first 2 seasons, and Landry + OBJ were both able to product fantasy relevant seasons.  But then, either he or the Browns reinvented the way he plays football and now we're stuck with a guy who's not skilled enough to make WRs good with talent, but also doesn't take the risks required to overcome his talent with volume or luck, and is too smart to lock onto a single target, fail to make reads, or forcefeed the WR we want him to.

He's genuinely just the worst combination of traits you could want from a QB, when it comes to getting WR fantasy production.

I think Baker is better than Darnold.  But I think Darnold results in more fantasy points for DJ Moore.

[Whitecloud0101]

32 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

It's... Complicated.  I don't have stats to back this up, and I'm not going to dig for any, so please understand this is purely my opinion.

As an NFL quarterback, purely in isolation... I believe Baker Mayfield is better than Sam Darnold.  Being a better QB though, doesn't always mean better results for the WR on the team, especially not in fantasy.

There's a sweet spot in fantasy where you want a QB to be just good enough to reliably, consistently, and effectively get the WR the ball, arguably to a fault, in a way that they will force the issue, take risks, blindly trust their WR, lock on to their safety blanket, or guys who fail to make reads and progressions, and either check down (if a slot WR) or throw to their first read every time.

Think Andy Dalton, or Ryan Fitzpatrick.  They are the types of guys who are at the same skill level of Baker, but they achieve their stats by being 70% risk 30% intelligence.  Baker may be just as skilled as them in any single aspect of playing QB, but he achieved his stats by 70% intelligence and... 0% risk.

Unfortunately, for that type of play style to work, you have to be as skill as Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning etc.  Those guys were so skilled, and had such good football IQ, they didn't have to force issues, they just produced on talent.

Baker is trying to be as smart as those guys, but genuinely lacks the skill to make it result in on field production.

Baker Mayfield, in my opinion, is the worst type of QB for fantasy production.  He takes zero risks and is a very conservative game manager.  I think he's skilled and intelligent, but he lacks the ability to do it in a way that gets his WRs smart production.  He also lacks the risks to get them dumb\lucky\garbage time production.

Long story short, I'd rather have a less skilled QB who makes dumb decisions and is willing to do whatever it takes to get my WR the ball, even if it's a flaw in their real world game.  Sam Darnold will get the ball to DJ Moore no matter what.  Baker Mayfield will look at him and say "oh he's not open, I'll take a sack."

Fantasy is a weird game in which WR production corresponds to the COS curve of QB play  Some of the best QB\WR seasons come from pure skill.  Some of them come because Jameis Winston or Eli Manning turn the ball over 30 and 27 times respectively because. But those were the best seasons Mike Evans or OBJ had in their entire careers.  Some come from Blake Bortles garbage time hero, but again, Allen Robinson's best season of his career.

Baker Mayfield is just the worst combination of the QB traits that don't translate to WR fantasy production.  You know the funniest part?  Baker used to be that QB.  He threw 35INTs in his first 2 seasons, and Landry + OBJ were both able to product fantasy relevant seasons.  But then, either he or the Browns reinvented the way he plays football and now we're stuck with a guy who's not skilled enough to make WRs good with talent, but also doesn't take the risks required to overcome his talent with volume or luck, and is too smart to lock onto a single target, fail to make reads, or forcefeed the WR we want him to.

He's genuinely just the worst combination of traits you could want from a QB, when it comes to getting WR fantasy production.

I think Baker is better than Darnold.  But I think Darnold results in more fantasy points for DJ Moore.

you rock sir- i agree with you. 

[BrianM]

Not exactly Sophie's Choice here, but I guess I'll take Baker over Darnold if given the option.   Darnold doesn't have a season like Baker's rookie season or Baker's 2020, which were at least a full year of a capable starting QB level of performance.    While I'm not a fan of "Baker was playing hurt!" as an excuse, I suppose it's at least possible, whereas Darnold was just trash last season.   Lastly, Baker's motivation certainly has to be there.   It has to be for good money though.  They're sinking 18 mil into Darnold already.  What's it worth to add Baker?  6-7 mil at most IMO.

 

[affliction]

Mayfield to the Panthers. Wasn’t drafting him before and probably not now. 

[Fort4242]

I imagine DJ gets a slight bump now with Baker in town.  Baker has shown he can at least be around a 3,500 and 25 type of player.  Panthers' offense might be sneaky good this year.  

[allrise24]

Love dj Moore if his ADP stays relatively similar to what it is now. Darnold threw for 2500 yards 9 tds and 13 int and Moore still cleared 1000 yards. I usually hate this logic but he has to be due for positive td regression. If he can just reach 6-7 with an uptick in yardage he’s well worth the pick

[BrianM]

Worth an add, even a steadying of the offense does wonders for Moore, vs the sunken ship that was the second half of 2021

[Nap Time]

Roto blurb:  "Mayfield’s addition doesn’t exactly move the needle much for Carolina’s pass-catchers in terms of fantasy."

Wrong.  Darnold started off OK, but reverted into the same basket case he was with the Jets.  The Carolina offense has a good chance to be functional now.  That's great news for Moore.

[JE7HorseGod]

Just now, Nap Time said:

Roto blurb:  "Mayfield’s addition doesn’t exactly move the needle much for Carolina’s pass-catchers in terms of fantasy."

Wrong.  Darnold started off OK, but reverted into the same basket case he was with the Jets.  The Carolina offense has a good chance to be functional now.  That's great news for Moore.

I think Mayfield gives the Panthers a better chance of winning football games than Darnold but I wonder about how much he supports fantasy receievers.  He's a good game manager and avoid turnovers, but it isn't as if he helped Odell Beckham much (who showed with Stafford that he can still be a more electric reciever before his injury).

Moore has been good for somewhere between 1150-1200 yards and exactly 4 TDs the last three seasons in a row and I'd have him pegged for about the same again this year.  Real similar to what Landry and Beckham did with Mayfield in 2019.

[Big Nate]

On 6/14/2022 at 10:20 AM, FFCollusion said:

Baker Mayfield, in my opinion, is the worst type of QB for fantasy production.  He takes zero risks and is a very conservative game manager.  I think he's skilled and intelligent, but he lacks the ability to do it in a way that gets his WRs smart production.  He also lacks the risks to get them dumb\lucky\garbage time production.

Long story short, I'd rather have a less skilled QB who makes dumb decisions and is willing to do whatever it takes to get my WR the ball, even if it's a flaw in their real world game.  Sam Darnold will get the ball to DJ Moore no matter what.  Baker Mayfield will look at him and say "oh he's not open, I'll take a sack."

 

 

...

 

But then, either he or the Browns reinvented the way he plays football and now we're stuck with a guy who's not skilled enough to make WRs good with talent, but also doesn't take the risks required to overcome his talent with volume or luck, and is too smart to lock onto a single target, fail to make reads, or forcefeed the WR we want him to.

 

This is a very good post and summarizes what I was trying to figure out. I highlighted a few parts that I think are key. By the end of his tenure in CLE he was not the same QB as when he came in. OBJ would be getting open but Baker rarely through him the ball. If we look at OBJs success in NYG some of that is the dumb luck/not bright enough at times/F-it I will chuck it up Manning throwing him the ball no matter what. Eli didn't mind a little risk at times. Baker had zero risk by the end and it showed.

Is Baker so broken now this is who he is or can he take advantage of this change of scenery and get back to slinging the ball a bit more? 

I think we are probably stuck with the old broken Baker and would rather not hitch my cart to him. I have always liked DJM and I do sure hope this ends up being good for him.

I don't think this moves the needle too much either way, DJM is who he is. Those that believe in DJM will see/say this is an upgrade and those who are out on DJM at his current price will say this isn't an upgrade, maybe more a lateral move.

I'd love to acquire DJM in dynasty as that flex type WR3 on your roster but I think any low point/buy opportunity has now passed with this signing.

[Evincar]

2 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

I imagine DJ gets a slight bump now with Baker in town.  Baker has shown he can at least be around a 3,500 and 25 type of player.  Panthers' offense might be sneaky good this year.  

Baker did that behind a really good Offensive line in Cleveland. Wont be the same for Clarolina. If acquiring Baker drives up Moore's ADP, its an easy fade. I'll just grab Robby Anderson later at a much cheaper price.

[buckeye1982]

I don't think Baker really moves the needle for DJ. Poor guy might be headed down to QB purgatory, formerly resided by Allen Robinson. 

[Fort4242]

18 hours ago, Evincar said:

Baker did that behind a really good Offensive line in Cleveland. Wont be the same for Clarolina. If acquiring Baker drives up Moore's ADP, its an easy fade. I'll just grab Robby Anderson later at a much cheaper price.

Of course the line is much worse than Cleveland, but I don't think it's 2021 Dolphins bad.  The Panthers made some nice additions there this off-season and Baker is decently mobile.  

Robby Anderson stinks

[Pastor3]

Deej ... 'sup?

you are the Fredo of wr1s ... embrace it. 

 

[JE7HorseGod]

49 minutes ago, Pastor3 said:

Deej ... 'sup?

you are the Fredo of wr1s ... embrace it. 

 

You DO NOT come to Las Vegas and talk to a man like Damon Arnette like THAT!  (That's why he only had 4 catches for 54 yards)

https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401220370

[lvsaint429]

(For context, I’m commenting as an owner in 2 14-team leagues. 1 is a draft, 1 is an auction)

While I wouldn’t want to count on Moore as a WR1, he could be a solid WR2 with Mayfield. Ideally I take him as a WR3 with upside but I doubt he slides that much.  Mayfield has to be better than Darnold & he’s got something to prove after how it ended in CLE, which had a bit of a conservative offense. Because of the offensive scheme & Mayfield might be the best QB  he’s played with (ouch) volume is there for Moore

Edited July 8, 2022 by lvsaint429