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Christian McCaffrey 2022 Outlook


Flyman75
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9 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

It wasn't just week 1.  I feel like people so quickly forget, that Sam Darnold was absolutely killing it for the first quarter of the season.

Through the first 4 weeks of the year, Darnold was 99 of 146, for 68% completion rate.  (Burrow lead the league with 70%, Rodgers 69%) He threw for 1,189 yards, and had 10 TDs.  He was averaging 297 yards passing and 2.5TD a game.  He was the 5th best QB in fantasy and won 3 if their first 4 games.

That's a 17 game season pace of 5,053 passing yards (2nd to only Brady) and 42 total touchdowns. (Also 2nd to only Brady)

And then... Christian McCaffrey got hurt, and the Panthers season went down the drain with him.  I don't know if that's a valid excuse for Darnold to suck as bad as he did from week 5 forward, but there's a direct correlation between McCaffrey's health and Darnold's production, so decide for yourself.

CMC came back week 9, the same week Darnold fractured his scapula, and was out for weeks, CMC season was over, the Panthers season was over, etc etc.

I'm not defending Darnold, I'm not going to say he's better than Baker... I'm just going to say, there was a window of opportunity, and for those 4 game Darnold looked better than Baker ever has in his life.  If that's what he can do with a healthy team, then Baker will never win this job.  If it was just a fluke, the CMC injury is just an odd coincidence, and what really happened was the league got caught off guard by Darnold for a few weeks before they adjusted... I would also believe that to be a very logical outcome as well.

I don't think this is as black and white as people are making it out to be with Baker being assumed as the starter.  Darnold has never played a full season, and the Panthers need a quality backup, not desperation off the street signings Matt Barkley and Cam Newton.

I think it's too soon to write off Darnold.  At least from the Panthers perspective.  They know how good things were before McCaffrey went down, and they understand how important CMC is to their entire organization.

I don't know, but my impression is that you don't bring in Baker if you think that Sam Darnold could be your QB of the future.

I have never been a fan.  From my prospective, Sam Darnold has been a turnover plagued mess who can't handle pressure and makes a lot of critical errors in almost every game I've watched him play going back to USC.

Four games is not much of a sample size.  I feel like you're conceding that point already and won't belabor it, except to say I don't think Joe Flacco is elite because he played four great games in the playoffs a number of years ago, and I don't think 4 games early last year do much to change my opinion that Sam Darnold should not be a starting quarterback in this league.  I think that's why the Panthers brought in Baker.

I could be wrong, I am a lot.

My point was more "it doesn't seem to matter who the quarterback is, McCaffrey when healthy is McCaffrey."  

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On 7/6/2022 at 4:06 AM, nmartinez12443 said:

Your first sentence shows you havent adapted to fantasy football. Handcuffs are  a must. Mattison, pollard, Barkleys backup, chubba was good for spot starts, penny was a league winner, McKinnon had a lot of value, Justin Jackson, Foreman was good for Henry, list goes on and on. Rbs are so hard to find and get hurt a ton that even if you get rb2 value that's enough to keep you afloat while they heal. 

 

Yes chubba and Foreman could easily siphon off carries from cmc. Foreman especially looked great at times last year. Don't get me wrong I still have cmc in the top 10, but I would rather have Ekler or Kupp and would heavily consider JJ.

Handcuffs are not a must. In fact, it's one of the worst strategies in fantasy in a vacuum. Look at last year:

1. CMC went down and Hubbard was basically an RB3 as a replacement.

2. Kamara got hurt. Ingram did solid in his first game as a replacement. Then in his 2nd game didn't do much, missed the 3rd, and was down right horrendous in the 4th. 

3. Ravens overall situation. Who did you draft to replace Dobbins? Because they all sucked.

4. Kenyan Drake was a borderline RB4 when Jacobs missed some games

5. Derrick Henry's handcuff didn't even end up being the handcuff. If you drafted his handcuff some other dude probably picked up Foreman off the wire and you got left out to dry. 

It's funny because your post is full of hilarious hindsight. As I mention above, Foreman was not Henry's handcuff going into the season, Justin Jackson had ONE fantasy game of value last year in week 16 so if you held a guy for 16 weeks to play him once good for you I guess, not sure why you even mention McKinnon or if you have him confused with someone else because he was useless, Chubba was an RB3 so I guess that's "value". and Penny is another guy that's easy to bring up in hindsight when in reality he got hurt AGAIN..multiple times. Most people that drafted him to candcuff Carson probably dropped him for Collins and much like in the Henry situation you got left out to dry as someone else picked up Penny while your "handcuff" was useless.

Other guys you mention like Mattison and Pollard aren't being drafted as handcuffs. These high end handcuffs you're competing with everyone else for. You want to secure Pollard you're spending a 5th round pick. Want to secure Mattison you're spending a 7th round pick. So the truly elite handcuffs aren't just guys you can grab late and be safe. Everyone wants them.

I'm not saying not to draft handcuffs or that it's always a bad idea. However, acting like someone doesn't know how to play fantasy football because they don't handcuff is absurd. I'll draft a handcuff if I think they're a good player with that #2 spot locked up and have great opportunity if the #1 goes down. When drafting backup RBs i'm looking at talent and opportunity not "I got RB1 from this team bust get RB2." That, to me, seems like the strategy of someone that doesn't know football not the other way around.

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Still the number 1 overall pick in any PPR format in my eyes. He will always have an insane reception floor/ceiling that JT cannot match. But yes, injuries are a concern. For most of fantasy I've just ignored injuries as bad luck, but it is admittedly a factor in the process. Some players are more durable and/or luckier than others (or less reckless).

Edited by harck
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I'm as big a handcuff guy as you'll find, but if I really take a step back and evaluate, they rarely really pan out. As mentioned, guys like Dillon, Hunt, Pollard, etc. will, but their ADP reflects as much. The "direct backup" to an RB1 that can be had beyond about round 10 is a total crapshoot. 

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11 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I'm as big a handcuff guy as you'll find, but if I really take a step back and evaluate, they rarely really pan out. As mentioned, guys like Dillon, Hunt, Pollard, etc. will, but their ADP reflects as much. The "direct backup" to an RB1 that can be had beyond about round 10 is a total crapshoot. 

My point is this:

CMCs value lies in the immense volume he gets because of his insane usage and snap counts. Now you have 2 very capable back ups who could easily get goal line work or valuable third down catches. We have no idea. However they spent massively on him and he's in the middle of his contract. They may want to protect their investment. 

The biggest downside to CMC is he has been getting hurt. Now we have no way to protect us from that. Unlike Taylor, Najee,Cook Henry, Mixon, definitely eckler, etc that have clear or eventually will backups.

I like the top 8 in this order full ppr.

1. Taylor

2. Henry

3. Naseem

4. Kupp

5. Jefferson 

6. Ekeler 

7. CMC

8. Chase 

 

Edited by nmartinez12443
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33 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

My point is this:

CMCs value lies in the immense volume he gets because of his insane usage and snap counts. Now you have 2 very capable back ups who could easily get goal line work or valuable third down catches. We have no idea. However they spent massively on him and he's in the middle of his contract. They may want to protect their investment. 

The biggest downside to CMC is he has been getting hurt. Now we have no way to protect us from that. Unlike Taylor, Najee,Cook Henry, Mixon, definitely eckler, etc that have clear or eventually will backups.

I like the top 8 in this order full ppr.

1. Taylor

2. Henry

3. Naseem

4. Kupp

5. Jefferson 

6. Ekeler 

7. CMC

8. Chase 

 

Well, if you're replacing Najee Harris with Bennie Snell I'd argue you are equally if not more boned than replacing McCaffrey with someone off the waiver wire.  Maybe Nyheim Hines or Isiah Spiller could give you some inconsistent RB2 starts.  In general though all these "handcuffs" are a big step down in production from what you are receving from your first round pick RB, to the point where a waiver wire pickup may end up being a better option, thus negating any value you get out of a clear "handcuff."

IMO, this should not be a deciding factor in debating your 1st rounder. 

Likelihood of injury?  Sure. 

But the "how solid is the handcuff" thing is way too unpredictable with a lot of these guys to rely on that as part of your decision making IMO.

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CMC first overall is crazy to me. I've talked about it multiple times just not in this thread:

Injury risk is flukey until it's not. One torn ACL is not going to have me write you off. However, you can't just use broad strokes for everything. Just because MOST injuries are flukey does not mean ALL are flukey. It's important to deferentiate the two. Some people are just build a lot better to handle injuries and are less prone to them. The comparison I like to use is Giannis vs Embiid. Both had very similar knee injuries last season. Embiid missed a month and took time to get into game shape after. Giannis missed a week and then proceeded to have one of the greatest finals series ever. Yes it's different sports but the point is not everyone is built the same.

As for CMC:

2020 Week 2 he gets an ankle sprain and proceeds to miss 6 games. Then pretty much right after he gets a shoulder injury and misses 4 games. Only for him to come back and get a thigh strain right after.

He comes into 2021 fully healed and can't even make it through 3 games. He gets a hamstring injury and misses 5 games. He plays 3 games and again gets an ankle injury that ends his season.

Count it. That's FIVE seperate injuries in 2 years. All which caused him to miss significant time. He's not just getting unlucky with bad hits, someone rolling up on him, etc. The dude is coming back and breaking down after a few games every time. He's basically Dalvin Cook if Dalvin Cook was was 2x as brittle as he already is. Which isn't a good spot to be in. 

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3 hours ago, Gohawks said:

CMC first overall is crazy to me. I've talked about it multiple times just not in this thread:

Injury risk is flukey until it's not. One torn ACL is not going to have me write you off. However, you can't just use broad strokes for everything. Just because MOST injuries are flukey does not mean ALL are flukey. It's important to deferentiate the two. Some people are just build a lot better to handle injuries and are less prone to them. The comparison I like to use is Giannis vs Embiid. Both had very similar knee injuries last season. Embiid missed a month and took time to get into game shape after. Giannis missed a week and then proceeded to have one of the greatest finals series ever. Yes it's different sports but the point is not everyone is built the same.

As for CMC:

2020 Week 2 he gets an ankle sprain and proceeds to miss 6 games. Then pretty much right after he gets a shoulder injury and misses 4 games. Only for him to come back and get a thigh strain right after.

He comes into 2021 fully healed and can't even make it through 3 games. He gets a hamstring injury and misses 5 games. He plays 3 games and again gets an ankle injury that ends his season.

Count it. That's FIVE seperate injuries in 2 years. All which caused him to miss significant time. He's not just getting unlucky with bad hits, someone rolling up on him, etc. The dude is coming back and breaking down after a few games every time. He's basically Dalvin Cook if Dalvin Cook was was 2x as brittle as he already is. Which isn't a good spot to be in. 

I admit i was starting to warm up to targeting him again…. Reading this was kinda ruff , 5 multi week injuries I didn’t think about it like that 😬 Definitely something to take note of.

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On 7/7/2022 at 8:14 AM, afl5013 said:

Never understood why people are so against handcuffing, but are all for stashing lottery tickets from other teams. When your star player goes down, isn't that the best possible time to cash in a backup RB lottery ticket? 

I'm not "against" handfuffing per se. But one reason I would lean in another direction instead of picking one is that a handcuff can easily create a roster logjam that is especially aggravating in early weeks, when roster flexibility is key as early season questions are answered. We've all seen cuffs held and held and then hamstring a team when bye weeks hit.

I think its better to utilize that roster spot for upside guys and worry about handcuffs closer to the trade deadline. 

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16 hours ago, candygram4mongo said:

I'm not "against" handfuffing per se. But one reason I would lean in another direction instead of picking one is that a handcuff can easily create a roster logjam that is especially aggravating in early weeks, when roster flexibility is key as early season questions are answered. We've all seen cuffs held and held and then hamstring a team when bye weeks hit.

I think its better to utilize that roster spot for upside guys and worry about handcuffs closer to the trade deadline. 

That's fair. I was mainly talking about the people who are against stashing the handcuff for their own RB but all for stashing the handcuff for someone else's. Obviously it only applies to the top handcuffs and not any regular backup though. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

I find it interesting how people assume just because CMC is healthy he is going to suddenly remain at 25 PPG or whatever.

He CLEARLY showed he's not capable of that workload. The Panthers would be stupid to give him the workload that a lot of people seemingly want him to have. They didn't pay him all that money to have him go out every few weeks because he's getting 30 touches. In fact, this was evident after he came back from his injury. In the 4 games back he was RB12 in half PPR. He averaged 11.8 carries over that stretch. 

It's easy to look at the expected receptions and point at someone like Ekeler and go "he doesn't get carries and look at him!" Except Ekeler is playing in what is likely to be a top 3 offense running behind a solid NFL line. AT BEST CMC is going to be running behind an average line in an average offense. At worst, the line is going to be bad and so is the offense. 

Even before you factor in his injury risk there's a very good chance we get Austin Ekeler like volume in a worse offense. Is CMC better than Ekeler? 100%. Is the gap between him and Ekeler wide enough to close the gap between the offenses? Doubt it. 

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People who have rostered him or Barkley the past two years are going to poke holes because when you touch the stove you learn it's hot.

People who haven't had such bad luck with injuries are going to be more inclined to see the upside of a guy who scored the second most fantasy points in a season ever and is still only 26 and the centerpiece of the offense.

I don't honestly know who will be right.  @Gohawksis right, the volume provided the scoring and the volume provided the injuries and they are saying they are going to be scaling it back.  They may throw that plan out though when it is 3rd and 5 and they need a conversion, to hell with the idea that he's already got his 25 touches or whatever.

If you're a "ceiling" better, I still say McCaffrey has the highest this year.  If you're a "safety" better, you won't take him.  That's really all there is to say until week 1 I think.

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9 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

People who have rostered him or Barkley the past two years are going to poke holes because when you touch the stove you learn it's hot.

People who haven't had such bad luck with injuries are going to be more inclined to see the upside of a guy who scored the second most fantasy points in a season ever and is still only 26 and the centerpiece of the offense.

I don't honestly know who will be right.  @Gohawksis right, the volume provided the scoring and the volume provided the injuries and they are saying they are going to be scaling it back.  They may throw that plan out though when it is 3rd and 5 and they need a conversion, to hell with the idea that he's already got his 25 touches or whatever.

If you're a "ceiling" better, I still say McCaffrey has the highest this year.  If you're a "safety" better, you won't take him.  That's really all there is to say until week 1 I think.

If I’m a ceiling bettor I’m personally taking Harris. 

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40 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

If I’m a ceiling bettor I’m personally taking Harris. 

Najee can't touch McCaffrey's ceiling because he isn't as explosive.  He had 381 touches last year and got 1667 yards, or 4.4 yards per touch.

McCaffrey got 403 touches in 2019 for 2392 yards, or 5.9 yards per touch.

Najee is a floor play.  His volume is built in.  He probably will be an RB1, but he probably won't be THE RB1.

McCaffrey is a ceiling play.  He could get hurt in week 1.  Or he could have a top ten season all time.

That's the difference.

Edited by JE7HorseGod
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20 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Najee can't touch McCaffrey's ceiling because he isn't as explosive.  He had 381 touches last year and got 1667 yards, or 4.4 yards per touch.

McCaffrey got 403 touches in 2019 for 2392 yards, or 5.9 yards per touch.

Najee is a floor play.  His volume is built in.  He probably will be an RB1, but he probably won't be THE RB1.

McCaffrey is a ceiling play.  He could get hurt in week 1.  Or he could have a top ten season all time.

That's the difference.

I agree in a sense, but is the CAR offense the same as it was previously and will the workload be the same?

Edited by Members_Only_76
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14 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Najee can't touch McCaffrey's ceiling because he isn't as explosive.  He had 381 touches last year and got 1667 yards, or 4.4 yards per touch.

McCaffrey got 403 touches in 2019 for 2392 yards, or 5.9 yards per touch.

Najee is a floor play.  His volume is built in.  He probably will be an RB1, but he probably won't be THE RB1.

McCaffrey is a ceiling play.  He could get hurt in week 1.  Or he could have a top ten season all time.

That's the difference.

Volume is indicative of ceiling to me. An RB with 200 carries isn’t finishing first. Ekeler somehow lucked into 20 TDs last year and was still behind JT. I already mention in the post above how I don’t think CMC is going to get as much volume. That’s the first thing.

The second thing is this post is predicated on the assumption that after all these injuries a few years later CMC is going to be just as good as he was in his prime. While Harris has a bad line, it’s still improved so his yards per touch should go up

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16 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Volume is indicative of ceiling to me. An RB with 200 carries isn’t finishing first. Ekeler somehow lucked into 20 TDs last year and was still behind JT. I already mention in the post above how I don’t think CMC is going to get as much volume. That’s the first thing.

The second thing is this post is predicated on the assumption that after all these injuries a few years later CMC is going to be just as good as he was in his prime. While Harris has a bad line, it’s still improved so his yards per touch should go up

Volume is indicative of a floor.  Efficiency is indicative of a ceiling.  After all with a floor we are looking for assurances, with a ceiling we are chasing best possible outcome.  When you select a player based on expecting a workload to drive points, that a floor argument.  When you expect a player to have elite efficiency IF they get that workload, that's the ceiling.

Harris is much more likely to get the volume you are expecting.  McCaffrey is less likely to get the volume, but more likely to have elite efficiency if he gets it.  That's the rationale.

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16 hours ago, Members_Only_76 said:

I agree in a sense, but is the CAR offense the same as it was previously and will the workload be the same?

Think about it this way, floor is "expected ROI."  Ceiling is "best possible return if all the market factors play in your favor."  Harris could have a higher expected ROI based on what they are saying about both players respective touches.  But if they both get them, McCaffrey is more likely to do more with them.

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I drew the #2 overall in a 12 team PPR redraft and I know the guy at 1 is taking JT.

My main issue with CMC is the fact he gets the Saints/Bucs 4x and these are teams that snuff out the run incredibly well and cover up the position very well with their LBs/safties too. Maybe it is slightly mitigated by also getting the Failcons 2x though?

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3 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

I drew the #2 overall in a 12 team PPR redraft and I know the guy at 1 is taking JT.

My main issue with CMC is the fact he gets the Saints/Bucs 4x and these are teams that snuff out the run incredibly well and cover up the position very well with their LBs/safties too. Maybe it is slightly mitigated by also getting the Failcons 2x though?

With the caveat that it is usually a sucker bet to look at strength of schedule prior to the season because so much changes during it:

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/strength-of-schedule.php?position=RB

Doesn't look prohibitively difficult overall.  14th most difficult for an RB.

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19 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Najee can't touch McCaffrey's ceiling because he isn't as explosive.  He had 381 touches last year and got 1667 yards, or 4.4 yards per touch.

McCaffrey got 403 touches in 2019 for 2392 yards, or 5.9 yards per touch.

Najee is a floor play.  His volume is built in.  He probably will be an RB1, but he probably won't be THE RB1.

McCaffrey is a ceiling play.  He could get hurt in week 1.  Or he could have a top ten season all time.

That's the difference.

But Mccaffery is now at this point a player without a ton of reliability. That's the issue, he's not reliable in his current state. And if I'm that team... I'm not going to continue to slam my rb into the dirt. Yea he was explosive and literally the whole team's offense and it burned him out pretty fast and he hasn't been able to sustain since, and I highly doubt he will ever go back to what he was, usage wise. 

I think cmc is an incredible player but in the world of fantasy I personally am blown away that fantasy has simply dictated he belongs at #2 after 2 straight years of being burned, it's pretty wild to me. 

Edited by Savatage79
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8 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

But Mccaffery is now at this point a player without a ton of reliability. That's the issue, he's not reliable in his current state.

I mean, his CURRENT state is that he's healthy.

His FUTURE state might be more likely to be injured than many other players based on his history, or that they might scale back his workload to avoid same. 

But that's not the debate. 

The debate is, are you more likely to avoid his lower floor as a result of these potential risk factors, or to swing for the fences that he has another 2018, 2019 season under his belt, because if he does his ceiling is higher than any other player?

People in this thread I feel are misunderstanding floors and ceilings.  A floor is what is most likely to happen if a player meets your baseline projections.  A ceiling is best case scenario.  You can not reasonably say that best case scenario for Najee Harris is better than best case scenario for Christian McCaffrey given what both players have demonstrated when healthy and receiving volume.  You can reasonably say that Harris is safer.

Edited by JE7HorseGod
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Just now, JE7HorseGod said:

I mean, his CURRENT state is that he's healthy.

His FUTURE state might be more likely to be injured than many other players based on his history, or that they might scale back his workload to avoid same. 

But that's not the debate. 

The debate is, are you more likely to avoid his lower floor as a result of these potential risk factors, or to swing for the fences that he has another 2018, 2019 season under his belt, because if he does his ceiling is higher than any other player?

People in this thread I feel are misunderstanding floors and ceilings.  A floor is what is most likely to happen if a player meets your baseline projections.  A ceiling is best case scenario.  You can not reasonable say that best case scenario for Najee Harris is better than best case scenario for Christian McCaffrey given what both players have demonstrated when healthy and receiving volume.  You can resonably say that Harris is safer.

But from my recollection he was going into last year healthy as well, it's why he went right back to #1 pick 

I don't think we've even remotely seen Najees ceiling, especially as they make improvements on the line. 

My point isn't that cmc couldnt crush it, it's that his adp never seems to account for the fact he's been pretty unreliable.

I don't get why the fantasy world doesn't dictate and say cmc is healthy but he belongs in that 6-9 range until he proves he can actually put a near to full season in again. 

I just think #2 is so steep given we've had 2 years now of disappointment. Same with barkley but now people are finally doing what I'm saying here, putting the player in a more accurate adp until he proves otherwise 

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6 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I mean, his CURRENT state is that he's healthy.

His FUTURE state might be more likely to be injured than many other players based on his history, or that they might scale back his workload to avoid same. 

But that's not the debate. 

The debate is, are you more likely to avoid his lower floor as a result of these potential risk factors, or to swing for the fences that he has another 2018, 2019 season under his belt, because if he does his ceiling is higher than any other player?

People in this thread I feel are misunderstanding floors and ceilings.  A floor is what is most likely to happen if a player meets your baseline projections.  A ceiling is best case scenario.  You can not reasonably say that best case scenario for Najee Harris is better than best case scenario for Christian McCaffrey given what both players have demonstrated when healthy and receiving volume.  You can reasonably say that Harris is safer.

You seem to consistently make the same conclusion, that Najee can never be as effecient as CMC and I think that's a mistake on your part, but your perogatve.

Same workload, to write off a rookie RBs first season as if he'll never improve, seems unreasonable.  It'll be a completely different offense without Big Ben I assume, but I don't know that for sure.

What I do know, is that 400 looks is the first requirement to meet the "ceiling" we're discussing right?

So there are 2 questions.  Is CMC getting that workload?  Najee is.

Which of the 2 players are more likely to be as effecient as 2019 CMC?  2022 7 injuries later CMC or Najee?

That's definitely up for debate.

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