Christian McCaffrey 2022 Outlook

[Flyman75]

Where is everyone drafting or hoping/looking/expecting to draft CMC this year? It’s too early to matter, but FP’s ADP is RB3 right now, 4th overall. 

[jharv2k1]

Man I was waiting for somebody to start a thread about him… curious to what others thinking. He Burned me the last 2 years back to back I don’t know if I’ll take him again but his upside is sure hard to pass up…. I’m sure for the right price I’d take him just not as high as he normally went.

[Stonej14]

8 minutes ago, jharv2k1 said:

Man I was waiting for somebody to start a thread about him… curious to what others thinking. He Burned me the last 2 years back to back I don’t know if I’ll take him again but his upside is sure hard to pass up…. I’m sure for the right price I’d take him just not as high as he normally went.

First overall pick 2 years in a row? Struggling huh? 
 

sorry had to throw low blow in. I honestly don’t kno how to follow him. When he plays he’s clearly the best fantasy player there is but it just seems like he’s maxed his body out and can’t stay healthy 

[Flyman75]

15 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

First overall pick 2 years in a row? Struggling huh? 
 

sorry had to throw low blow in. I honestly don’t kno how to follow him. When he plays he’s clearly the best fantasy player there is but it just seems like he’s maxed his body out and can’t stay healthy 

Could be keeper or dynasty. 

[jharv2k1]

36 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

First overall pick 2 years in a row? Struggling huh? 
 

sorry had to throw low blow in. I honestly don’t kno how to follow him. When he plays he’s clearly the best fantasy player there is but it just seems like he’s maxed his body out and can’t stay healthy 

Nah i play in Auction leagues, maybe I shoulda said that part too. But yea definitly been a big chunk of my budget wasted on him 

[Stonej14]

6 minutes ago, jharv2k1 said:

Nah i play in Auction leagues, maybe I shoulda said that part too. But yea definitly been a big chunk of my budget wasted on him 

That’s the best draft platform imo. If you draft good or bad it’s all on you. 
 

honestly this is the first year I’ve wanted to draft him since his sophomore breakout. Might actually get value for him.

[jharv2k1]

9 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

That’s the best draft platform imo. If you draft good or bad it’s all on you. 
 

honestly this is the first year I’ve wanted to draft him since his sophomore breakout. Might actually get value for him.

Yes by far my favorite style draft. 

[BGDDYKWL]

Gonna be VERY interesting to see where he's getting drafted come late August/early September. My guess is the upside will keep him from slipping very far. 

[straightfire118]

I’m a sucker for this guy, but here I am again. Maybe this is the year he stays healthy because when he does he gets massive amount of touches and is a league winner. I’m drafting this guy 2nd overall behind JT.

[BrianM]

Feels like a classic case of "if i draft him, he gets hurt again, if I don't, he does great"   

Definitely a player I can't take more than once.   I'm pretty firm on my top 5 overall and he's not in it, and that's about all I know for sure atm.   

[FFCollusion]

Risk vs reward.  There's not a single player at any position, QB INcluded, (Yahoo default) that has the upside of CMC.  30PPG average is what he has shown us multiple times over a large enough sample size, to consider a reasonable ceiling for him.

But... If he doesn't play football, ceiling doesn't mean a whole lot.

What I find the most interesting is how far apart he and Saquon are given similar injuries, past elite seasons, and talent\skill\ability.  CMC deserves at least 1 round advantage, but currently has 3 or 4 on FFC.  One of them is being valued incorrectly, you can decide which.

CMC is a guy I don't intend to target, but he's a guy on draft day where if I get a middle or late pick, and he's available and the WRs went early... I'm not sure I can pass him up.

It's one of those scenarios where I HOPE someone else ahead me drafts him, so I don't have to make that choice.

I have JT and Najee firmly ahead of him.  After that it gets real fuzzy looking on the board.  Same situation as always, if I told you CMC would get you, even just 25ppg, but for only 8 games... Would you pay a first?  I think I would.

I always draft pretty RB heavy in the mid-late rounds, hoping for depth or surprise RB2s.  If I draft Henry or CMC in the first this year, I would double down on RB depth for sure.  I might only draft 2 or 3WRs total and just load a bench full of RBs and hope for the best.

In auction formats it's actually easier.  Budget for 3 or 4 RBs you know you can depend on weekly, with intent to flex then the loss of 1 hurts less.  Get 3 top 12 backs, if you lose 1, you still have your 2 starters, and you start flexing your WR depth.

Lots of ways to build around top end risk in auctions that aren't as easy to accomplish in snakes.

For that reason, I'm likely to avoid him in snakes, and may target him in auction, but it really depends on how the overall board looks this year.  How much faith you have in names down the board you like, etc.

If we were drafting today, I can definitely see enough RB names in the middle of the board, I could easily justify the risk of CMC.  Come August that's not always the case though.

As far as fantasy discussion, I'd be eager to hear people quantify the minimum return from CMC to feel like he was worth a first for them.

8 games at 30ppg?  Yes or no?

8 games at 25ppg?

8 games at 20ppg?

12 games at 20ppg?

Where do you draw the line?  What does CMC need to do, at minimum, to justify a 1st round pick, if you assume an injury is coming, and want to value it as a whole.

When you owned or played against Derrick Henry last year, in hindsight would you have enjoyed owning Henry for the 8 games he played?  Did he do enough to feel like you would have traded your first round pick for him, or been happier with his performance than a guy who played 16 games, but at 5ppg less than Henry?

Henry averaged 23ppg for 8 games.  Mixon and Najee averaged ~18ppg for 16 games.  What was more impactful on your fantasy season?  Which would you have rather owned?  Who actually won you more games through the year?

Curious of the public perception of this thought experiment, because when I do my analysis I always try to incorporate this idea into my breakdown.

[Savatage79]

I think after 2 seasons of let down I gotta move on for now at least. Just read he's not gonna be in pre season and I get that but I also feel it's leaning to far in the other direction as well, to precautionary... But we will see. 

If I didn't have him the last 2 years I may not be as reserved but yea, we will see. 

[straightfire118]

12 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Risk vs reward.  There's not a single player at any position, QB INcluded, (Yahoo default) that has the upside of CMC.  30PPG average is what he has shown us multiple times over a large enough sample size, to consider a reasonable ceiling for him.

But... If he doesn't play football, ceiling doesn't mean a whole lot.

What I find the most interesting is how far apart he and Saquon are given similar injuries, past elite seasons, and talent\skill\ability.  CMC deserves at least 1 round advantage, but currently has 3 or 4 on FFC.  One of them is being valued incorrectly, you can decide which.

CMC is a guy I don't intend to target, but he's a guy on draft day where if I get a middle or late pick, and he's available and the WRs went early... I'm not sure I can pass him up.

It's one of those scenarios where I HOPE someone else ahead me drafts him, so I don't have to make that choice.

I have JT and Najee firmly ahead of him.  After that it gets real fuzzy looking on the board.  Same situation as always, if I told you CMC would get you, even just 25ppg, but for only 8 games... Would you pay a first?  I think I would.

I always draft pretty RB heavy in the mid-late rounds, hoping for depth or surprise RB2s.  If I draft Henry or CMC in the first this year, I would double down on RB depth for sure.  I might only draft 2 or 3WRs total and just load a bench full of RBs and hope for the best.

In auction formats it's actually easier.  Budget for 3 or 4 RBs you know you can depend on weekly, with intent to flex then the loss of 1 hurts less.  Get 3 top 12 backs, if you lose 1, you still have your 2 starters, and you start flexing your WR depth.

Lots of ways to build around top end risk in auctions that aren't as easy to accomplish in snakes.

For that reason, I'm likely to avoid him in snakes, and may target him in auction, but it really depends on how the overall board looks this year.  How much faith you have in names down the board you like, etc.

If we were drafting today, I can definitely see enough RB names in the middle of the board, I could easily justify the risk of CMC.  Come August that's not always the case though.

As far as fantasy discussion, I'd be eager to hear people quantify the minimum return from CMC to feel like he was worth a first for them.

8 games at 30ppg?  Yes or no?

8 games at 25ppg?

8 games at 20ppg?

12 games at 20ppg?

Where do you draw the line?  What does CMC need to do, at minimum, to justify a 1st round pick, if you assume an injury is coming, and want to value it as a whole.

When you owned or played against Derrick Henry last year, in hindsight would you have enjoyed owning Henry for the 8 games he played?  Did he do enough to feel like you would have traded your first round pick for him, or been happier with his performance than a guy who played 16 games, but at 5ppg less than Henry?

Henry averaged 23ppg for 8 games.  Mixon and Najee averaged ~18ppg for 16 games.  What was more impactful on your fantasy season?  Which would you have rather owned?  Who actually won you more games through the year?

Curious of the public perception of this thought experiment, because when I do my analysis I always try to incorporate this idea into my breakdown.

12 games averaging his normal 25+ points is enough for me. What happens if he plays 14 or 15 games? Probably league winner, and game flow doesn’t matter with him because he racks up so many catches.

Edited May 26, 2022 by straightfire118

[Stonej14]

10 hours ago, straightfire118 said:

12 games averaging his normal 25+ points is enough for me. What happens if he plays 14 or 15 games? Probably league winner, and game flow doesn’t matter with him because he racks up so many catches.

12 games at 25 points is probably a league winner to be honest. That’s 300 points for the year That is routinely a top 5 or 6 RB for the year In both PPR and half PPR. Add in that his back up is likely to get you 10-15 points every week as well. If I could get CMC for 25 points a week I’d debate on taking him with the first pick. 

[The G Man]

Ruhle saying he won't play in the P/S and had already made comments about his usage being dialed back in-season. If true, you'd like to think if he hasn't already be over-used he can hold up to the rigors of a full season. Only player I'd take ahead of him is JT even with the injury concerns. He's just such a beast when healthy, I can't pass up the upside.

[predator_05]

11 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

If we were drafting today, I can definitely see enough RB names in the middle of the board, I could easily justify the risk of CMC.  Come August that's not always the case though.

 

8 games at 30ppg?  Yes or no?

8 games at 25ppg?

8 games at 20ppg?

12 games at 20ppg?

Where do you draw the line?  What does CMC need to do, at minimum, to justify a 1st round pick, if you assume an injury is coming, and want to value it as a whole.

When you owned or played against Derrick Henry last year, in hindsight would you have enjoyed owning Henry for the 8 games he played?  Did he do enough to feel like you would have traded your first round pick for him, or been happier with his performance than a guy who played 16 games, but at 5ppg less than Henry?

Henry averaged 23ppg for 8 games.  Mixon and Najee averaged ~18ppg for 16 games.  What was more impactful on your fantasy season?  Which would you have rather owned?  Who actually won you more games through the year?

Curious of the public perception of this thought experiment, because when I do my analysis I always try to incorporate this idea into my breakdown.

With the passage of time, I have valued big game potential over points per game. I'm more interested in how big a game somebody can have on a given week, as opposed to what they're 'averaging'.

FF is primarily head to head, and week to week, and nothing gives you an advantage like a player getting a 30 point day. It almost guarantees you the win, along with a huge total score. 

Henry for 8 games would have been better than a number of running backs that finished ahead of him. he'd probably have won you more games. Assuming you put decent players around him, of course. 

McCaffrey is very much in the same category as Henry; an every-down workhorse. He is still the main man on the Carolina Panthers offense. Very little around him has changed. It's not a great offensive group, but not terrible either. As long as McCaffrey continues to out-touch every back (except Henry), he's worth the 1.02 in redraft. With their uncertainty at QB, I don't see any reason why the panthers wouldn't be running their offense through him for another year. This is why they paid him the big bucks. 

Barkley's injuries were more severe (he tore knee ligaments in two places), so I can understand why people are fading him.  

Both those guys need a good preseason. If the reports are encouraging, their ADPs are gonna look different come August. 

[Gohawks]

16 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

Risk vs reward.  There's not a single player at any position, QB INcluded, (Yahoo default) that has the upside of CMC.  30PPG average is what he has shown us multiple times over a large enough sample size, to consider a reasonable ceiling for him.

But... If he doesn't play football, ceiling doesn't mean a whole lot.

What I find the most interesting is how far apart he and Saquon are given similar injuries, past elite seasons, and talent\skill\ability.  CMC deserves at least 1 round advantage, but currently has 3 or 4 on FFC.  One of them is being valued incorrectly, you can decide which.

CMC is a guy I don't intend to target, but he's a guy on draft day where if I get a middle or late pick, and he's available and the WRs went early... I'm not sure I can pass him up.

It's one of those scenarios where I HOPE someone else ahead me drafts him, so I don't have to make that choice.

I have JT and Najee firmly ahead of him.  After that it gets real fuzzy looking on the board.  Same situation as always, if I told you CMC would get you, even just 25ppg, but for only 8 games... Would you pay a first?  I think I would.

I always draft pretty RB heavy in the mid-late rounds, hoping for depth or surprise RB2s.  If I draft Henry or CMC in the first this year, I would double down on RB depth for sure.  I might only draft 2 or 3WRs total and just load a bench full of RBs and hope for the best.

In auction formats it's actually easier.  Budget for 3 or 4 RBs you know you can depend on weekly, with intent to flex then the loss of 1 hurts less.  Get 3 top 12 backs, if you lose 1, you still have your 2 starters, and you start flexing your WR depth.

Lots of ways to build around top end risk in auctions that aren't as easy to accomplish in snakes.

For that reason, I'm likely to avoid him in snakes, and may target him in auction, but it really depends on how the overall board looks this year.  How much faith you have in names down the board you like, etc.

If we were drafting today, I can definitely see enough RB names in the middle of the board, I could easily justify the risk of CMC.  Come August that's not always the case though.

As far as fantasy discussion, I'd be eager to hear people quantify the minimum return from CMC to feel like he was worth a first for them.

8 games at 30ppg?  Yes or no?

8 games at 25ppg?

8 games at 20ppg?

12 games at 20ppg?

Where do you draw the line?  What does CMC need to do, at minimum, to justify a 1st round pick, if you assume an injury is coming, and want to value it as a whole.

When you owned or played against Derrick Henry last year, in hindsight would you have enjoyed owning Henry for the 8 games he played?  Did he do enough to feel like you would have traded your first round pick for him, or been happier with his performance than a guy who played 16 games, but at 5ppg less than Henry?

Henry averaged 23ppg for 8 games.  Mixon and Najee averaged ~18ppg for 16 games.  What was more impactful on your fantasy season?  Which would you have rather owned?  Who actually won you more games through the year?

Curious of the public perception of this thought experiment, because when I do my analysis I always try to incorporate this idea into my breakdown.

Barkley is way too low. I think CMC is a bit high but not by much. I have him in the 13-15 range.

There’s a clear difference between Barkley and CMC though. When CMC plays he’s going to be an absolute beast. No ifs and buts. With Barkley we can’t say the same. Barkley played last season and was garbage. Not only does he have injury issues he wasn’t able to produce last year.

Still, Barkley should be going in the mid 20s. Talent upside is too much. 

[Evincar]

Normally I would be off a player with consecutive injury plagued seasons but none of the injuries were major ones. I think he benefits from a reduced workload and he still has the highest ceiling among RBs. 

[Savatage79]

I'm on and off with him, today now I actually feel that if somehow he fell a bit I would take him at end of first and just see what happens. 

[BrianM]

19 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

As far as fantasy discussion, I'd be eager to hear people quantify the minimum return from CMC to feel like he was worth a first for them.

8 games at 30ppg?  Yes or no?

8 games at 25ppg?

8 games at 20ppg?

12 games at 20ppg?

 

(assuming you're insinuating the "other" games are him being either inactive or gimpy, and not just sub-peak performances)

He was at 29 PPG in his last full stud season.   I'll say 10 games at 26 PPG and I'm happy.   If he plays 8 games he better get me like 32 or 33 (nearly impossible, I know)  Naturally more games and a lower average are acceptable- 19 PPG makes him a clear first rounder of course   If he played all year and If those are all regular season games, that's enough to get me to playoffs and I'm probably a top seed with an above average rest-of-draft.    If he's missing reg season games, but healthy for playoffs and balling, I'm confident i can grind to a wild card and have him buoy me once I'm there.  

[SyNdicateZ]

No way he has Another injury plagued season. If so he needs to retire! 

That said, Hes a league winner when healthy and I'm still taking him early 1st round. I like to draft players that I KNOW will produce when on the field and is consistently good! Any player can get hurt..

[affliction]

On 5/27/2022 at 7:18 AM, SyNdicateZ said:

No way he has Another injury plagued season. If so he needs to retire! 

That said, Hes a league winner when healthy and I'm still taking him early 1st round. I like to draft players that I KNOW will produce when on the field and is consistently good! Any player can get hurt..

Agreed. it’s the perfect setup when everyone is down on a player they turn into mr durability. I also didnt own him the last 2 years so I don’t feel the sense of deceit 

[BrianM]

On 5/27/2022 at 7:18 AM, SyNdicateZ said:

No way he has Another injury plagued season. If so he needs to retire! 

That said, Hes a league winner when healthy and I'm still taking him early 1st round. I like to draft players that I KNOW will produce when on the field and is consistently good! Any player can get hurt..

My gut keeps telling me no on CMC but there's no arguing this point.    Take a worse player and maybe they just get hurt instead, or go with the guy who absolutely wins weeks when he plays.       I'm warming up, especially in snake draft.   

[owenmills]

23 hours ago, affliction said:

Agreed. it’s the perfect setup when everyone is down on a player they turn into mr durability. I also didnt own him the last 2 years so I don’t feel the sense of deceit 

At some point you have to just ignore injury risk if the upside is high enough. Even 'durable' RBs are at a great risk of having some huge person hit or land on them wrong and put them on the shelf. I will say that if CMC goes out there and has a 3rd injury riddled season in a row I may be out permanently and he probably should be too like someone said above 

[kp96]

If you're not going to take CMC at 2, who you going to take?  (Outside of PPR where I suppose Kupp is an option). 

The other two RBs who you could plausibly take at 2 are Dalvin and King Henry.  Both of these guys actually have a higher chance of injury this year than CMC, according to Draft Sharks injury predictor, so you can't argue health.  And despite how awesome they are, CMC inarguably has the highest ceiling of the 3.