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Travis Etienne 2022 Outlook


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7 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Remember folks, draft capital is more important than actual NFL production. 

This is why you should have drafted Josh Kelley over Ekeler. And then drafted Larry Rountree over Ekeler. And you should now draft Spiller over Ekeler. It goes without saying, but you should obviously also draft Blaine Gabbert over Tom Brady, of course!

Draft Etienne this year in fantasy, don't draft Robinson.

Thanks for coming to my Fantasy Talk.

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5 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Not exactly sure who you are arguing against? The discussion is on injuries mostly. I think him being a UDFA only comes into play if he returns from what is generally the worst type of injury for an RB.

Once he comes back, I agree the team won't care so much about him being UDFA (I don't think teams care about that) or even his cheap contract (that's the other side of being an UDFA). They'll play each one of them once they come back, and then Etienne might have the edge, but first they need to come back, and that's where I think Robinson will have quite some hurdle.

 

His UDFA status has been brought up in this thread more than once. Draft capital is a common ETN over JRob argument, and it's obviously irrelevant. The injury concerns are, of course, valid.

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44 minutes ago, kp96 said:

There are exceptions to every rule and no, you should not go simply by where the guy was drafted in the NFL draft to determine how good they are.  NFL talent evaluators make mistakes.

Having said that, it's undeniable that draft position is a good indicator.  

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/rb

Just eyeballing it, being drafted in the top 2 rounds is a good indicator that the guy will be productive.  For every Bishop Sankey or David Wilson, you have at least 3-4 solid starters (if not stars) in this tier.  As you go down, that ratio flips to where you can expect 1 good player out of ever 3-4 draft picks that never do anything in rounds 3-6.  Obviously toward the late rounds your hit rate is very small.

NFL talent evaluators make mistakes but I wouldn't dismiss it completely, especially if we are trying to make a judgment call on someone like Etienne or Breece Hall or whoever.

James Robinson is a proven pro-bowl level NFL player. He had the greatest rookie season of any UDFA ever. At this point, his draft capital means *loud extended fart noise*. 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

James Robinson is a proven pro-bowl level NFL player. He had the greatest rookie season of any UDFA ever. At this point, his draft capital means *loud extended fart noise*. 

 

 

Like I said in my post, there are exceptions to the rule.  I was replying to your implication that draft capital doesn't matter at all.

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14 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

His UDFA status has been brought up in this thread more than once. Draft capital is a common ETN over JRob argument, and it's obviously irrelevant. The injury concerns are, of course, valid.

I would hardly say it's "irrelevant."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.catscratchreader.com/platform/amp/2018/5/16/17359772/what-draft-position-tells-us-finding-pro-bowlers-regular-contributors

There are plenty of data points that show us that although drafting is an inperfect science, yes first round picks generally perform better than UDFAs, anecdotal examples aside.

Robinson has played well, and he Etienne's injury last year bought him another to show his stuff, but things are different so far this offseason.  Robinson is now the one recovering from injury.  And Etienne was a first rounder because he is very good at football at the collegiate level with some skills that might dovetail nicely into a pro career.

You can ignore him and assume things stay status quo with Robinson enthusiasm potentially at your peril, IMO.

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9 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Not sure if you mean bad offense or bad overall (win/loss), but in either case I think you're wrong.

CMC, Barkley, Chubb all had great seasons on teams that were objectively bad. Even - no, especially the Jags, clearly one of the worst organisations out there, which ever way you slice it, had Fournette and Robinson recently. Why would you not want a 1600 yd season?

If I was looking at two guys that I valued about equally, then I'm always going to choose the guy on the better offense and team.  Sure, there's exceptions to the rule all the time.  CMC, Barkley, Chubb...those guys are superstars in the NFL and all of them have been fantasy first round draft picks.  

I'm not sure I'm sold on Etienne yet.  The gap between him and Akers is closing for me however.  I think around Etienne's ADP, you're looking at guys like Antonio Gibson, Breece Hall, and JK Dobbins.  I might take a chance on Breece Hall given the hype over Etienne.  And yes, they're both on likely bad teams.  But I feel that Breece Hall could be a more complete back at the pro level.  If JRob fails to return though, that would allow Etienne to eat.  I guess we will wait to hear the training camp reports.

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15 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

Lindsay had a better year like two years prior. Too lazy to go back further.

Splitting hairs, Lindsay didn't have a better year.  He had more rushing TDs and a higher ypc.  JRob tied or bested him in every other meaningful statistic - namely the yards from scrimmage.  I don't discount your premise, that if we look back in history that we will see a few others that are comparable.

Not specifically talking at anyone's take on this Jax duo:  we don't know that ETN really is at this point.  He's done zero in this league.  We can all have the opinion that he will be a strong presence that the team will deploy in both the run game and as a pass catcher, but we don't know to what extent and how it will affect the game-by-game touch count between the two.  We will likely see the first few preseason games what he truly can be, but for now JRob has all of the boxes checked.

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23 minutes ago, JAG said:

Not specifically talking at anyone's take on this Jax duo:  we don't know that ETN really is at this point.  He's done zero in this league.  We can all have the opinion that he will be a strong presence that the team will deploy in both the run game and as a pass catcher, but we don't know to what extent and how it will affect the game-by-game touch count between the two.  We will likely see the first few preseason games what he truly can be, but for now JRob has all of the boxes checked.

I personally don't think it's wise to entirely abandon any analysis you have a player's performance or attritibutes at the collegiate level when thinking about "who they are" as a pro.  It's may not be a direct corelation, but IMO it's a factor.

But if you want to discount that viewpoint entirely, I would say there is one "box" that Etienne has checked that Robinson does not, and that is having an in tact Achillies, and lacks the subsequent rehabilitation that accompanies that.

I'm not one of these people that would say that an Achilies tear is a death knell for a RB.  But I would say you have to consider it a factor five months after the injury at least.

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2 hours ago, JAG said:

Splitting hairs, Lindsay didn't have a better year.  He had more rushing TDs and a higher ypc.  JRob tied or bested him in every other meaningful statistic - namely the yards from scrimmage.  I don't discount your premise, that if we look back in history that we will see a few others that are comparable.

Not specifically talking at anyone's take on this Jax duo:  we don't know that ETN really is at this point.  He's done zero in this league.  We can all have the opinion that he will be a strong presence that the team will deploy in both the run game and as a pass catcher, but we don't know to what extent and how it will affect the game-by-game touch count between the two.  We will likely see the first few preseason games what he truly can be, but for now JRob has all of the boxes checked.

 

Except for the whole has 2 healthy Achilles box.

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7 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Except for the whole has 2 healthy Achilles box.

Akers made it back onto the NFL field in 5.5 months.  Each person heals differently, but the fact JRob is running again suggests he's not far off, having an extra month more than Akers.  How's his injury compare to ETN's as far as debilitating, we may not fully ever know.  But for the sake that ETN's comeback timeline is now over and JRob's is still ongoing, it's easy for his detractors to have confidence in June that ETN is first in line "now" (June).

I think it'll be a good thing they have each other during the season to split the wear and tear.  I think both are fairly underrated fantasy commodities (not much buzz) this year.  Whatever the ADP is for each of them could lend to an ability to grabbing both without breaking the bank.

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12 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

There are plenty of data points that show us that although drafting is an inperfect science, yes first round picks generally perform better than UDFAs, anecdotal examples aside.

Robinson has played well, and he Etienne's injury last year bought him another to show his stuff, but things are different so far this offseason.  Robinson is now the one recovering from injury.  And Etienne was a first rounder because he is very good at football at the collegiate level with some skills that might dovetail nicely into a pro career.

You can ignore him and assume things stay status quo with Robinson enthusiasm potentially at your peril, IMO.

You are confusing "forecasting" with "predictive analysis".

If we had never seen J.Rob or Etienne play at the NFL level, the data would "forecast" that Etienne is far more likely to "perform better".  That is what the data points you linked support, and I would agree with that conclusion. (From the perspective of that time frame.)

However, once we see one of, or both, players perform at the NFL level we are no longer correlating draft price with production, we are now predicting success based on real world trends that are happening in real time, past or present.

When an UDFA performs like a 1st round pick, it's time to re-evaluate and re-asses the data.  When doing so there are only 2 logical conclusions.

1: His draft price was wrong\not indicative of his true talent\production.

2: His on field performance was a fluke, or outlier, he will return to the level that his draft price forecasted.

Now, you are free to make your own decision here, but I know exactly which category I belong in.

So... Technically you're both right.

Draft capital, in regards to James Robinson's success, is completely irrelevant.

Draft capital, in regards to Etienne's success, is absolutely relevant.

This is of course ignoring the new variable introduced to the data set... J.Rob's achilles.

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4 hours ago, JAG said:

Akers made it back onto the NFL field in 5.5 months. 

...and looked nothing like the old Akers, unfortunately. In his case I have some hope that an entire off-season (and his youth) may help, but even if Robinson has a month more I don't think Akers is an argument to say maybe Robinson will be back in full force.

Note that I'm not a "detractor", I couldn't care less about either of them (I won't own either); I just would prefer to keep the discussion clear.

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12 hours ago, JAG said:

Akers made it back onto the NFL field in 5.5 months. 

It is true, it was pretty much a miracle. Having said that he didn't look good to me. Hopefully a full offseason helps Akers get back to 100%. I don't think he looked the same after his injury.

Akers is also the outlier. They only player to come back that fast. I've said it before, achillies injuries are usually a year and even then the player doesn't look 100%. IF they do make it back it usually takes a couple season and even then it is dicey. We will get a good look at Marlon Mack this year to see what he has left as well as Foreman should get some burn in CAR. Foreman finally had some good production last year - FOUR years after tearing his...

I'm not drafting JRob in hopes of an outlier season where he comes back in less than a year.

The current depth chart is:

Etienne, Armstead and Conner

With that in mind I really like Etienne at his current ADP and maybe Conner as a really late flyer in deeper leagues.

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22 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

It is true, it was pretty much a miracle. Having said that he didn't look good to me. Hopefully a full offseason helps Akers get back to 100%. I don't think he looked the same after his injury.

Akers is also the outlier. They only player to come back that fast. I've said it before, achillies injuries are usually a year and even then the player doesn't look 100%. IF they do make it back it usually takes a couple season and even then it is dicey. We will get a good look at Marlon Mack this year to see what he has left as well as Foreman should get some burn in CAR. Foreman finally had some good production last year - FOUR years after tearing his...

I'm not drafting JRob in hopes of an outlier season where he comes back in less than a year.

The current depth chart is:

Etienne, Armstead and Conner

With that in mind I really like Etienne at his current ADP and maybe Conner as a really late flyer in deeper leagues.

My take is there isn't enough data on RBs who were all that good before the achillies tear to make an informed judgement either way - of that list folks like to post there are maybe 3 guys who I would say might have an NFL career that would have continued without injury and 3 is not that many.

But you're right, we haven't seen a guy come back from an achillies and get 12-20 touches in the regular season and rush for 100 yards and score multiple TDs and all the things that the Robinson supporters in this thread seem to be confident he will do.

Could he be the first?  The nature of sports medicine being what it is, I am confident that eventually someone will be.  We used to say the same thing about ACLs and Tommy John in baseball.  Things change.

Robinson has overcome significant odds against him so far in his career.  Generally speaking, UDFAs do not become bellow RBs.  Typically, if your offense and your offensive line sucks, it is hard to be an RB1 in fantasy.

But these are different challenges now, healing from the achillies and fending off a 1st round pick at your position who is now healthy when you are not.

I'd prefer to bet on Etienne at his draft spot than Robinson at his at this point, but I'll try to keep an open mind during the preseason.

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4 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

Lindsay made the Pro Bowl. Just had more competition for touches.

I'm a fan of Lindsay. He had a 2 and a half good years in Denver, then got banged up. After 2020, he went to Houston, where he ran behind the worst run blocking in the league. I still think Lindsay is an extremely talented back who could end up being a fantasy goldmine this year if JT gets hurt.

Having said all that, James Robinson had more yards from scrimmage as a rookie than Lindsay (or any other UDFA rookie ever). He's also just pretty clearly a better back. He's an elite pass protector whereas Lindsay just can't really pass protect at all. Neither guy is an elite pass catcher, but Robinson is more natural catching the ball out of the backfield.   

 

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2 hours ago, affliction said:

Lawrence targeted rb’s 20% of the time last year (top 10 rate)what you think he is going to with his buddy Etienne?

 

well. according to some folks in this thread, throw it to Jrobs healthy achilles.

Edited by Whitecloud0101
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I only see two concerns here but both are kind of accounted for because of his ADP, you aren't risking the whole farm on this guy in rounds 1 and 2:

1) Pederson always runs RB committees.

2) Low scoring opportunities. Basically the 'Jets' of last year concern. You can have a talented running back, but if the team scores 0-14 points every week... you're going to have a lot of valleys. I like betting on RBs that will theoretically have a lot of redzone/scoring opportunities. Elijah Mitchell, Josh Jacobs come to mind.

Anyway, like I said those two concerns are somewhat erased because of his ADP. Should outperform barring injury.

Edited by harck
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  • 4 weeks later...

Sounds like he's made a full recovery from the lisfranc injury. That's good.

Jaguar Report's John Shipley believes Travis Etienne has bee "the star of Jaguars training camp" so far.

After losing his rookie campaign to a foot fracture, Etienne is in need of a big 2022. The former first-round draft pick has reportedly been turning heads during the first week of camp, which included a big play on Saturday. Shipley said of Etienne, "If he gets a sliver of space, he has been able to use it to explode into the teeth of the defense. He has been as advertised so far, at least on the ground." Shipley added that Etienne has lined up in a number of places offensively and "has gotten the ball in a variety of ways". This is encouraging news for Etienne truthers who saw his stock take a slight hit after it was announced James Robinson (Achilles) would be returning in mid-August. A legitimate threat both on the ground and through the air, Etienne's upside is certainly capped with Robinson's return. A potential top-12 PPR back sans Robinson, Etienne is more of a mid to low-end RB2 with Robinson active.

Source: Jaguar Report
Jul 30, 2022, 4:57 PM ET
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To me the 64 million dollar question is, hiw much can Lawrence improve from year one to year 2 with a coach who isn't terrible?

I like some of the moves they made, Scherff was a nice get, Kirk and Engram were probably overpriced but we don't care about that, it should raise the talent bar.  Robinson is still very closely removed from the achilles and while I am not sold it's a death knell it is still within a year for him.

Etienne was always a prospect I liked, that most people liked at the RB position and if he came out this year for instance I would say he was a better prospect than any other RB in this class.

But the offense has to be better as a whole I think, and a lot of that rests with T Law.  Pederson will have the committee going, between Robinson or others, so Etienne will not be able to rely on Robinson like volume and will have to be efficient with his opportunities and I think that's going to have to come with some redzone looks.

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