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Travis Etienne 2022 Outlook


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53 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

Should we be best friends?

Lol. Dude was electric in college and I’m a sucker for the bromance college connections which is why I like Marquis Brown this year 

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Reports like this drive me crazy!

Sports Illustrated's John Shipley reports Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson sees James Robinson (Achilles) as a three-down back when fully healthy. 

Not expected to be ready for Jacksonville's training camp next month after suffering an Achilles tear in December, Robinson will likely miss the first part of the regular season. That would leave Travis Etienne as the favorite to take the every-down role in the team's backfield. Shipley said "the Jaguars know how important Robinson is, even with Etienne in the fold," and that the team will remain patient as Robinson comes back from a devastating injury. Shipley pointed out that the Jaguars' dysfunctional 2021 offense was less dysfunctional with Robinson on the field. The Jags' play-action decreased by 14 percent without Robinson, while Trevor Lawrence's completion percentage, positive play-rate, EPA per attempt, and completion percentage were much higher with Robinson on the field. If Robinson falls down draft boards far enough, he could make for a savvy late-round selection in redraft formats. 

 

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So if JR is a three down back, then why even draft Etienne?  Etienne is just going to sit on the sidelines and wait for injury?  Or he'll be used more as a receiver?

If the timeline becomes a little more definitive and you can get 6 or so weeks out of Etienne, he's going to be charging up my draft board.  

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29 minutes ago, CooL said:

So if JR is a three down back, then why even draft Etienne?  Etienne is just going to sit on the sidelines and wait for injury?  Or he'll be used more as a receiver?

If the timeline becomes a little more definitive and you can get 6 or so weeks out of Etienne, he's going to be charging up my draft board.  

 

Because it is just coach speak and means nothing. 

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34 minutes ago, CooL said:

So if JR is a three down back, then why even draft Etienne?

Because there are only about a dozen backs that get more than 250 touches year in and year out, last year there were 10.

If you average out 250 touches over 17 games it is 14.7 touches per game.  If you think there are only about 10 to a dozen RBs who will give you 15 touches per game it's madness to just have 1.

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4 hours ago, CooL said:

So if JR is a three down back, then why even draft Etienne?  Etienne is just going to sit on the sidelines and wait for injury?  Or he'll be used more as a receiver?

If the timeline becomes a little more definitive and you can get 6 or so weeks out of Etienne, he's going to be charging up my draft board.  

He never said JR is the three down back.

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On 6/21/2022 at 11:01 PM, BGDDYKWL said:

I just don't see how a guy this productive (and talented) in college can't carve out a role behind a guy rushing back from an Achilles. I find that hard to believe. 

close your eyes, go to your happy place, picture waterfalls, unicorns & rainbows

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6 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

That sounds so much like clickbait I don't even want to click it.

There is no breaking news here, unless I'm very much mistaken, but feel free to elucidate.

ha yea it’s garbage, i watched it. essentially saying jrob will come back by mid season to be unquestioned 1 cinderella udfa style. i watched some ETN tape, and i feel all fuzzy again 

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48 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

A former UDFA coming off one of the toughest injuries for any running back?  I am happy to bet against JPlod in the form of an Etienne share.

Would you bet on Etienne over Cam Akers?  Same injury.  Yet everyone doesn't seem worried about Akers.

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57 minutes ago, CooL said:

Would you bet on Etienne over Cam Akers?  Same injury.  Yet everyone doesn't seem worried about Akers.

0 akers shares here. he looked horrible when he came back. only difference between cam and jrob is preseason tear vs late season tear. i’d rather own ETN ….

 

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1 hour ago, CooL said:

Would you bet on Etienne over Cam Akers?  Same injury.  Yet everyone doesn't seem worried about Akers.

I am extremely worried about Akers, especially since he was hot garbage in the playoffs.

Akers and JPlod are both DND for me.  If everyone thinks Robinson is somehow going to come back in '22 with guns blazin, and I can get Etienne for cheap?  Even better.

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21 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I am extremely worried about Akers, especially since he was hot garbage in the playoffs.

Akers and JPlod are both DND for me.  If everyone thinks Robinson is somehow going to come back in '22 with guns blazin, and I can get Etienne for cheap?  Even better.

Yeah, I'm gonna bet against Achille's injuries as well, regardless of what the talking heads say.  Maaaaybe if they fall far enough that the injury risk (which I am valuing as substantial) is covered, but they'll be gone way before that.

We could be wrong on this but I believe this is the correct percentage play given the history of Achille's tears in RBs.

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On 6/25/2022 at 8:48 PM, CooL said:

Would you bet on Etienne over Cam Akers?  Same injury.  Yet everyone doesn't seem worried about Akers.

I'm out on Akers as are are others - I wouldn't use the word "everyone". I'm out on all RBs who blow their achillies. None have produced the first year back.

As for your first two sentences, it makes it sound like Etienne has the same injury as Akers and they didn't. I assume you are talking Robinson? Confusing.

Anyways, I can see Etienne outscoring Akers this year and I would gladly take Etienne.

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Etienne could’ve returned from his Lisfranc injury but they (smartly) decided to give him extra time to come back at 100% this year. He’s electric, especially in space. Given running styles I’d rather have Akers over Robinson, who I think gets relegated to 6-8 between-the-tackles carries to reduce the pounding Etienne takes. With that I think Etienne could seize the JAX RB1 & out produce his 4th-5th round ADP fairly easily

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On 6/25/2022 at 6:59 PM, SharkSwimmer said:

A former UDFA coming off one of the toughest injuries for any running back?  I am happy to bet against JPlod in the form of an Etienne share.

 

On 6/25/2022 at 7:48 PM, CooL said:

Would you bet on Etienne over Cam Akers?  Same injury.  Yet everyone doesn't seem worried about Akers.

 

10 hours ago, Big Nate said:

I'm out on Akers as are are others - I wouldn't use the word "everyone". I'm out on all RBs who blow their achillies. None have produced the first year back.

As for your first two sentences, it makes it sound like Etienne has the same injury as Akers and they didn't. I assume you are talking Robinson? Confusing.

Anyways, I can see Etienne outscoring Akers this year and I would gladly take Etienne.

It's not like this thread is blowing up so I didn't think it was that hard to understand.  You scroll up just four posts above yours and you'll see that I replied in response to Shark saying he'd bet against James Robinson by drafting Etienne.  James Robinson - who had the same Achilles injury as Akers- is being written off as a has been.  While Cam Akers is a top 40 pick on almost everyone's ranking lists and he had the same injury as JRob.  Maybe not yours.  But Google any 2022 rankings list and you're likely to see Akers inside the top 40.  Many are saying that Akers came back too soon but still got 80%+ touches and will have a workhorse role.  Sure, my reply read in a vacuum is a little misleading because it does suggest both Etienne and Akers had the same injury.  But that's not what I was implying.

I am always wary of RBs on bad teams.  And Jackonsville will once again be a bad team from the looks of it.

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4 hours ago, CooL said:

I am always wary of RBs on bad teams.

Not sure if you mean bad offense or bad overall (win/loss), but in either case I think you're wrong.

CMC, Barkley, Chubb all had great seasons on teams that were objectively bad. Even - no, especially the Jags, clearly one of the worst organisations out there, which ever way you slice it, had Fournette and Robinson recently. Why would you not want a 1600 yd season?

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Remember folks, draft capital is more important than actual NFL production. 

This is why you should have drafted Josh Kelley over Ekeler. And then drafted Larry Rountree over Ekeler. And you should now draft Spiller over Ekeler. It goes without saying, but you should obviously also draft Blaine Gabbert over Tom Brady, of course!

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

Remember folks, draft capital is more important than actual NFL production. 

This is why you should have drafted Josh Kelley over Ekeler. And then drafted Larry Rountree over Ekeler. And you should now draft Spiller over Ekeler. It goes without saying, but you should obviously also draft Blaine Gabbert over Tom Brady, of course!

Not exactly sure who you are arguing against? The discussion is on injuries mostly. I think him being a UDFA only comes into play if he returns from what is generally the worst type of injury for an RB.

Once he comes back, I agree the team won't care so much about him being UDFA (I don't think teams care about that) or even his cheap contract (that's the other side of being an UDFA). They'll play each one of them once they come back, and then Etienne might have the edge, but first they need to come back, and that's where I think Robinson will have quite some hurdle.

 

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6 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Remember folks, draft capital is more important than actual NFL production. 

This is why you should have drafted Josh Kelley over Ekeler. And then drafted Larry Rountree over Ekeler. And you should now draft Spiller over Ekeler. It goes without saying, but you should obviously also draft Blaine Gabbert over Tom Brady, of course!

There are exceptions to every rule and no, you should not go simply by where the guy was drafted in the NFL draft to determine how good they are.  NFL talent evaluators make mistakes.

Having said that, it's undeniable that draft position is a good indicator.  

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/rb

Just eyeballing it, being drafted in the top 2 rounds is a good indicator that the guy will be productive.  For every Bishop Sankey or David Wilson, you have at least 3-4 solid starters (if not stars) in this tier.  As you go down, that ratio flips to where you can expect 1 good player out of ever 3-4 draft picks that never do anything in rounds 3-6.  Obviously toward the late rounds your hit rate is very small.

NFL talent evaluators make mistakes but I wouldn't dismiss it completely, especially if we are trying to make a judgment call on someone like Etienne or Breece Hall or whoever.

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