Christian Watson 2022 Outlook

[Spyplane]

1 hour ago, Big Nate said:

There we go. Now we are talking about risk/reward (what I wrote in my first post). I worry his ADP is going to climb to an unreasonable spot for a rookie WR who is very raw and has lots to learn. He only had 43 receptions last year - that is 3.5 a game. Another rookie from a smaller college, Skyy Moore, averaged nearly 8 receptions a game. They are going close to each other right now (ADP) - but that could change for both. I would rather spend that draft capital on a guy like Skyy Moore who has shown he can be the lead guy, soaking up 10+ targets a game. Could Watson out perform Moore - for sure, but there is more risk there. 

 

The current hype train worries me. Now if there are reports out of camp that he is struggling and slow to learn the playbook and get the trust of Rodgers then I am willing to take a flyer on him in hopes he gets things rolling in the 2nd half of the season. Then things are much more reasonable with his ADP.

Some valid points here and we'll have to see how camp goes but he never has played with anyone remotely as good as Rodgers, never been coached by anyone remotely as good as LaFleur and the Packers have never needed a rookie to step up like this in the past twenty years, for sure. Skyy has real competition but the bottom line for me is:

ADP > my draft board position = do not draft, no matter the team. 

[Spyplane]

54 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I understand your theory, really I do.

I think you're just underestimating how raw Watkins is, and you're translating his athletic abilities and Cobb's deterorating skill and Lazard's lack of consistency to mean that he steps in and does more statistically than any other rookie in Rodgers tenure (and in order to be rosterable in a standard league that's exactly what he'd need to do).

IMO, even if Cobb is deterorating and Lazard is inconsistent, their familiarity with the offense and Rodgers, and their experience in the NFL will dicate that they need to be used too often while Watkins is learning how to play against NFL caliber corners and defensive schemes for at least this year.

I predict his rookie season statistically won't vary much from Jordy Nelson's or Greg Jenning's or Davante Adams's even if the other WRs aren't that talented, because well dude, he's still a rookie, and he played at North Dakota State.  You understand?

I think you're underestimating LaFleur and his coaching team but we will see. I also think you're underating the impact of losing a constant double team draw and you're underestimating the impact of the loss of their homerun threat. Cobb and Lazard can't beat defenses and familiarity won't overcome that.  They need Watson and they will scheme him for what he can do and I expect it will expand as the season progresses. I put this guy in with a guy like Antonio Gibson. All I heard in here was no, no, no.  No chance because x, y and z from the past and from a different set of circumstances. No chance because of insufficient experiences. All the focus on why not and totally overlooking, ignoring or downplaying the reasons why it might happen. Those overlooked reasons held the truth of what was about to happen. Either way, good luck.

[JE7HorseGod]

Just now, Spyplane said:

I put this guy in with a guy like Antonio Gibson.

Ok, but just to put things in their proper context, Antonio Gibson played against programs like Cincinnati and Ole Miss his last year in school.

Watson's competition was against teams like Youngstown St. and Valpo.

Either way, good luck to you too.

[Spyplane]

An article I noticed on Fantasy Pros today:

Quote

 

Senior Bowl standout and combine phenom Christian Watson is officially a cheesehead filling a glaring need for Packer nation at receiver. Watson’s small school and non-early declare status is problematic, but the talent and opportunity are there for him to explode. Watson is competing with Allen Lazard, the Lizard King, Randall Cobb, fourth-round pick Romeo Doubs, and a laundry list of depth chart filler for targets. He’s a moonshot home run swing worth taking in the mid to late first round of drafts tied to a future Hall of Fame quarterback in Aaron Rodgers.

 

Quote

 

2022 Dynasty Rankings
(Updated 5/6/22) 
1. Drake London WR - ATL (), +1 vs. ECR 

2. Jameson Williams WR - DET (), +4 vs. ECR 

3. Kenneth Walker III RB - SEA (), +2 vs. ECR 

4. Breece Hall RB - NYJ (), -3 vs. ECR 

5. Garrett Wilson WR - NYJ (), -2 vs. ECR 

6. Christian Watson WR - GB (), +3 vs. ECR 

7. Treylon Burks WR - TEN (), -3 vs. ECR 

8. Skyy Moore WR - KC (), +0 vs. ECR 

9. Chris Olave WR - NO (), -2 vs. ECR 

10. Jahan Dotson WR - WAS (), +0 vs. ECR 

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/2022/05/derek-browns-favorite-dynasty-rookie-draft-targets-2022-fantasy-football/

Seems fair, for now.

 

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by Spyplane

[Stonej14]

1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Ok, but just to put things in their proper context, Antonio Gibson played against programs like Cincinnati and Ole Miss his last year in school.

Watson's competition was against teams like Youngstown St. and Valpo.

Either way, good luck to you too.

Ya but Gibson played those schools as a WR. People were saying he can’t succeed as an RB because he had 45 rushes in his college career, he’s raw, he’s just an athlete, stuff like that
 

People are similar things about Watson but idk. Something tells me the 6’4 210 dude who runs a 4.3 can learn to run routes and be schemed open by a good coach. Add in they have the reigning MVP to throw him dimes. I’m not saying he’s gonna do Justin Jefferson numbers but I could easily see Kyle pitts, chase claypool rookie numbers. 

[JE7HorseGod]

12 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Ya but Gibson played those schools as a WR. People were saying he can’t succeed as an RB because he had 45 rushes in his college career, he’s raw, he’s just an athlete, stuff like that
 

People are similar things about Watson but idk. Something tells me the 6’4 210 dude who runs a 4.3 can learn to run routes and be schemed open by a good coach. Add in they have the reigning MVP to throw him dimes. I’m not saying he’s gonna do Justin Jefferson numbers but I could easily see Kyle pitts, chase claypool rookie numbers. 

Ok.  All I'll say is there a wide gap of talent between FCS and FBS schools and I believe that will likely effect the learning curve of an NFL rookie, and that a position change, while potentially challenging schematically, isn't at stark as an upgrade against competion, potentially.  And it might be overcome but IMO the odds are against it happening that quickly.  Kyle Pitts went to Florida.  Chase Claypool went to Notre Dame.  They played against Florida State and Michigan on Saturdays to get them ready to play the Steelers on Sundays.

Anyways, good luck to all of you.  I could be wrong, I am frequently.

[Big Nate]

1 hour ago, Stonej14 said:

People are similar things about Watson but idk. Something tells me the 6’4 210 dude who runs a 4.3 can learn to run routes and be schemed open by a good coach. Add in they have the reigning MVP to throw him dimes. I’m not saying he’s gonna do Justin Jefferson numbers but I could easily see Kyle pitts, chase claypool rookie numbers. 

I think that is what we (and the Packers) are all hoping. The concern is, him being so raw, how long does that process take and will it happen this year for redraft?

[bomont]

The other thing is teams will key on him big time as they know he's GB's only home run threat and the most talented receiver there. 

IMO GB really effed up this draft by not moving up to get one of the top tier guys, to say nothing of making no FA moves there either. 

[BrianM]

Rodgers has had a number of receivers that amounted to starting material in the NFL.   None of them were ever productive in their rookie season, however.   It's worth noting that some of them came in with a strong starter (or more) already in place, which Watson won't have holding him back, but at the same time, if he's low on experience, that's a thing that'll weigh on me in drafts.   

[Spyplane]

On 5/7/2022 at 12:13 AM, bomont said:

The other thing is teams will key on him big time as they know he's GB's only home run threat and the most talented receiver there. 

IMO GB really effed up this draft by not moving up to get one of the top tier guys, to say nothing of making no FA moves there either. 

That's going to be tough when they have Jones and Dillon smashing them regularly. Both are capable of large gains.

[Pastor3]

 

[JE7HorseGod]

18 minutes ago, Pastor3 said:

 

So we got Watkins on the NFI and Watson on the PUP with no timeline. 

Both new to the team and could presumably use some reps getting into rythmn with A-Aron, especially the rook from North Dakota State.

[Pastor3]

17 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

So we got Watkins on the NFI and Watson on the PUP with no timeline. 

Both new to the team and could presumably use some reps getting into rythmn with A-Aron, especially the rook from North Dakota State.

the kid Doubs is rurning heads these first couple days of camp - tryna reignite that 12 to 87 connection 🤺

[JE7HorseGod]

2 minutes ago, Pastor3 said:

the kid Doubs is rurning heads these first couple days of camp - tryna reignite that 12 to 87 connection 🤺

I'll keep an eye out, but we know how they do rooks around them parts.

[PRoSPx]

Not a ton of chatter about Christian Watson.  Is Romeo Doubs really the better pick?  I know Romeo has been healthy and making his mark in camp but Watson has rare size and athleticism.  I think Romeo may have the leg up currently on the depth chart but come mid season Watson could become Rodgers favorite target.

[yossarian]

39 minutes ago, PRoSPx said:

Not a ton of chatter about Christian Watson.  Is Romeo Doubs really the better pick?  I know Romeo has been healthy and making his mark in camp but Watson has rare size and athleticism.  I think Romeo may have the leg up currently on the depth chart but come mid season Watson could become Rodgers favorite target.

I just don't think there's any reason to draft watson. If you think he's going to turn it around midseason, keep an eye on him and pick him up if things start looking up. As it is now he just missed his first preseason with an injury and has not had any reps to establish trust with a notoriously ornery QB who will not throw him the ball if he doesn't trust him. Maybe he's worth a stash IR spot if you have the room to do that. 

[FFCollusion]

4 hours ago, PRoSPx said:

Not a ton of chatter about Christian Watson.  Is Romeo Doubs really the better pick?  I know Romeo has been healthy and making his mark in camp but Watson has rare size and athleticism.  I think Romeo may have the leg up currently on the depth chart but come mid season Watson could become Rodgers favorite target.

Long term, I like Watson, but it's tough enough for rookies anywhere, ever tougher in GB (allegedly), and now we're talking about a guy who missed most of camp and preseason because he's not 100%.

Give me Doubs, and if Watson flashes down the road, I won't hesitate to make a switch or carry both to see how it plays out.

[Pastor3]

A(yahuasca)Rod doling out the gush ... he likey - 

"I might have to change Dave Bakhtiari's nickname, because this kid might be the new baby giraffe, or more like a deer because he's just prancing and flying around on the field," Rodgers said during a recent appearance on "The Pat McAfee Show." "This dude's got incredible stride length. And really, for a man who is 6-foot-5, his speed is legit. It was nice having him. He's a different type of receiver than we've had. A guy that big with that type of stride length with that speed." 

[abrunn11]

On 5/8/2022 at 3:21 PM, BrianM said:

Rodgers has had a number of receivers that amounted to starting material in the NFL.   None of them were ever productive in their rookie season, however.   It's worth noting that some of them came in with a strong starter (or more) already in place, which Watson won't have holding him back, but at the same time, if he's low on experience, that's a thing that'll weigh on me in drafts.   

If Watson becomes a possession receiver, then he will find success with Rodgers.  Rodgers is morphing into a "check down Charlie" with his average yards-in-air pass attempts steadily declining over the last few years (17th in the NFL last year).   Watson would have been a perfect Valdez-Scantling type, but will most likely never be a true #1 WR in the NFL.   He is a 9-route receiver playing with a west coast offense QB.  

[PRoSPx]

I still think Watson will have a bigger season than Romeo Doubs, who I also like.

[JJ1223]

He's my pick for OROY.

[Dirty Little Birdie]

Lazard is officially doubtful. I'm really excited to see what this kid brings to the table on Sunday. Anyone have the balls to start him?

[Spyplane]

Things are quiet here going into week one but here's a Aaron Rodger quote from this week about Christian Watson to kick off the season:

Quote

"This dude's got incredible stride length. And really, for a man who is 6-foot-5, his speed is legit. It was nice having him. He's a different type of receiver than we've had. A guy that big with that type of stride length with that speed."

Allen Lazard is probably out for week one.

[Fierylady]

4 minutes ago, Dirty Little Birdie said:

Lazard is officially doubtful. I'm really excited to see what this kid brings to the table on Sunday. Anyone have the balls to start him?

I'm in the lower division of a relegation/promotion league and I'm rolling with him. Of course that's over guys like Danny Gray and Byron Pringle so...

[BIGFATPANDA]

120 2tds