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Christian Watson 2022 Outlook


nn4mz
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Another WR in the roomie class that I have my eye on.  6’4 with 4.3 speed.  Not much depth in GB right now, and if there is a QB you’d want to throw you the ball, Rodgers is one of em.

He also appears to go out and run those jet sweeps and gadget plays.

I’m looking to grab him at the right price.

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6 hours ago, nn4mz said:

Another WR in the roomie class that I have my eye on.  6’4 with 4.3 speed.  Not much depth in GB right now, and if there is a QB you’d want to throw you the ball, Rodgers is one of em.

He also appears to go out and run those jet sweeps and gadget plays.

I’m looking to grab him at the right price.

I'm going to assume you're talking Dynasty. Rodgers is fairly notorious for being strict on his rookies - even Cobb and Adams took a couple years to rise to prominence, so in redraft I'm very careful.

Then again, he has basically nobody to throw to, so there's that.

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

I'm going to assume you're talking Dynasty. Rodgers is fairly notorious for being strict on his rookies - even Cobb and Adams took a couple years to rise to prominence, so in redraft I'm very careful.

Then again, he has basically nobody to throw to, so there's that.

Maybe Aaron's ready to evolve?

 

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3 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I'm going to assume you're talking Dynasty. Rodgers is fairly notorious for being strict on his rookies - even Cobb and Adams took a couple years to rise to prominence, so in redraft I'm very careful.

Then again, he has basically nobody to throw to, so there's that.

Same.

I am going to be watching the reports of the Cobb/Lazard/Watkins/Amari Rogers pecking order pretty closely though. 

We used to think guys like Jordy Nelson were amongst the "nobody to throw to" category at one point too.  Somehow A-Aron figured out a way to make them somebody.

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5 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I'm going to assume you're talking Dynasty. Rodgers is fairly notorious for being strict on his rookies - even Cobb and Adams took a couple years to rise to prominence, so in redraft I'm very careful.

Then again, he has basically nobody to throw to, so there's that.

 

3 hours ago, smeeze said:

Maybe Aaron's ready to evolve?

 

That's the thing though. AR may have no other choice but to look to the rookie more so than in year's past. I mean, I'm not reaching for him, but he could be a sneaky late draft dart throw.

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On 5/3/2022 at 3:57 PM, Boudewijn said:

I'm going to assume you're talking Dynasty. Rodgers is fairly notorious for being strict on his rookies - even Cobb and Adams took a couple years to rise to prominence, so in redraft I'm very careful.

Then again, he has basically nobody to throw to, so there's that.

Cobb and Adams were lower down the pecking order. This kid is walking straight into the starting job.

He's a good prospect, but going from small school minor league ball to the NFL, that's a huge jump. There's a big learning curve, he's gonna struggle. 

Remember Adams in his 2nd year was an immediate starter after Jordy Nelson tore his ACL in preseason. He really struggled. It took a while for him to build trust with Aaron Rodgers, who's a bit of a perfectionist when it comes to placement and positioning. 

Might be looking too far ahead but this is kind of how I see Watson's best case scenario, early struggles and a delayed 2nd or 3rd season breakout.  

They might draft a WR next season if he struggles. So it's not like he's locked into a permanent number 1 receiver role. 

Edited by predator_05
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On 5/3/2022 at 5:50 AM, smeeze said:

Maybe Aaron's ready to evolve?

 

Probably called him and threatened him. Said he better learn the playbook by next week or no targets. Only sort of joking.

If Watson is slow to learn the playbook and isn't in the right spot every time he's not getting targets. I like the potential here but I'm not sure Watson was the right pick for GB. He's pretty raw and had low volume in college.

No doubt the opportunity is there but I'm with Boudewijn in that rookies don't often hit with GB and Rodgers. I guess if there is no one else to throw to.... 

The risk is big with this guy and I'm not sure I'm willing to take that risk on where he is going to be drafted. I bet I don't own any of this guy this year. Could he blow up? Yes but I think the hype train (especially in redraft) is going to be too much. Even in my dynasty leagues I doubt I own this guy - too costly.

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On 5/3/2022 at 8:08 AM, JE7HorseGod said:

Same.

I am going to be watching the reports of the Cobb/Lazard/Watkins/Amari Rogers pecking order pretty closely though. 

We used to think guys like Jordy Nelson were amongst the "nobody to throw to" category at one point too.  Somehow A-Aron figured out a way to make them somebody.

If Watson's stock continues to climb I will likely own a fair number of Watkins or Lazard shares. Both of these guys will be good values and someone who could be a flex starter. Even if Watson is GBs #1 WR they still need other receivers. Someone is going to get a healthy share of targets. Maybe they roll back the clock and 32yr old Cobb ends up scoring 12 TDs again but I doubt it. 

The last name is someone to track in preseason. Maybe Amari takes the second year leap.

So much risk with Watson.

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19 hours ago, Big Nate said:

 

The risk is big with this guy and I'm not sure I'm willing to take that risk on where he is going to be drafted. I bet I don't own any of this guy this year. Could he blow up? Yes but I think the hype train (especially in redraft) is going to be too much. Even in my dynasty leagues I doubt I own this guy - too costly.

Predicting what will happen based on the past will burn you when you don't understand the past. The Packers currently do not have a star receiver. For example, when Adams entered Jordy Nelson was a complete stud and posted 1,500 yards that season. Cobb had a breakout year with 1,200 yards. The Packers have no vet remotely as good as either of them were in 2014 and none of them offer the big play potential that Watson offers. The exciting guys at reciever now are three rookies. One of them will have an impact. Watson is the best bet but Doubs looks good also.

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5 hours ago, Spyplane said:

Predicting what will happen based on the past will burn you when you don't understand the past. The Packers currently do not have a star receiver. For example, when Adams entered Jordy Nelson was a complete stud and posted 1,500 yards that season. Cobb had a breakout year with 1,200 yards. The Packers have no vet remotely as good as either of them were in 2014 and none of them offer the big play potential that Watson offers. The exciting guys at reciever now are three rookies. One of them will have an impact. Watson is the best bet but Doubs looks good also.

I think I do understand the past. None of Adams, Cobb or Nelson had good rookie years. I still stand by what I wrote and to summarize: He could blow up - I did write that. But also I doubt I will own him as he's too costly for the risk. I don't think anything I wrote is out of line. I think you may have got a bit too excited about my post especially the bolded and underlined. 

Watson could have a "good" rookie year (football wise) but that might not translate into good fantasy production. If I miss on Watson that is OK as his draft capital is likely to get a bit out of control IMO.

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2 hours ago, Big Nate said:

I think I do understand the past. None of Adams, Cobb or Nelson had good rookie years. I still stand by what I wrote and to summarize: He could blow up - I did write that. But also I doubt I will own him as he's too costly for the risk. I don't think anything I wrote is out of line. I think you may have got a bit too excited about my post especially the bolded and underlined. 

Watson could have a "good" rookie year (football wise) but that might not translate into good fantasy production. If I miss on Watson that is OK as his draft capital is likely to get a bit out of control IMO.

Wrong. Jordy and Cobb had to battle Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. The Packers have no one like that in front of Watson. Try again.

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1 hour ago, Spyplane said:

Wrong. Jordy and Cobb had to battle Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. The Packers have no one like that in front of Watson. Try again.

I'm not discussing depth chart here. We all agree that there is an opportunity for Watson.

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4 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

I'm not discussing depth chart here. We all agree that there is an opportunity for Watson.

You kind of were because you're comparing him to rookies who were third at best in the pecking order during their first couple seasons. He might be the number one target for all we know.

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I'm not a Packers fan so I know less about the team than a fan would, but from an outsiders prospective it would sure seem to me like Cobb and Lazard would be more likely targets given their familiarity with the quarterback and the offense than a rookie who played at North Dakota State.

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8 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I'm not a Packers fan so I know less about the team than a fan would, but from an outsiders prospective it would sure seem to me like Cobb and Lazard would be more likely targets given their familiarity with the quarterback and the offense than a rookie who played at North Dakota State.

Cobb is a shell of his former self and he's injury prone. Lazard is a good dude, and plays hard but he's limited in what he can do. There is an opportunity at this moment for a guy like Watson, one that those other guys that were mentioned never had. Will he take advantage? Who knows but it's there.

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2 hours ago, Spyplane said:

Cobb is a shell of his former self and he's injury prone. Lazard is a good dude, and plays hard but he's limited in what he can do. There is an opportunity at this moment for a guy like Watson, one that those other guys that were mentioned never had. Will he take advantage? Who knows but it's there.

Ya I’m surprised Cobb is still in the league. But I’d guarantee Watson has a better rookie year than Nelson, Cobb, or adams had just out of necessity. The only one who has a chance to out target Watson imo is Lazard. Hopefully Watson is fully devoted to getting better and spends the off season with rodgers like kupp did with stafford 

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7 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Ya I’m surprised Cobb is still in the league. But I’d guarantee Watson has a better rookie year than Nelson, Cobb, or adams had just out of necessity. The only one who has a chance to out target Watson imo is Lazard. Hopefully Watson is fully devoted to getting better and spends the off season with rodgers like kupp did with stafford 

His opportunity this season appears to be comparable to Michael Pittman Jr's opportunity last season in Indy. Only, he's far more athletic (possibly the most athletic receiver in the class) and he has arguably the best pure passer in the league throwing to him, But a lot of the other things are the same: he's a large dude, he has a pro pedigree, did well in college and has a lot of available targets to absorb. And he's competing against a once good but washed up vet and some role players who are average at best.

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4 hours ago, Spyplane said:

Cobb is a shell of his former self and he's injury prone. Lazard is a good dude, and plays hard but he's limited in what he can do. There is an opportunity at this moment for a guy like Watson, one that those other guys that were mentioned never had. Will he take advantage? Who knows but it's there.

Maybe so, but Watson is very raw.  He's only had small school competition.  The film looks great because he's essentially Billy Madison playing dodgeball out there with elementary school kids.  I understand the enthusiasm but I doubt he comes out of the chute harder than say Jameson Williams or Drake London and personally I'm going to be looking more towards the vets A-Aron has a raport with already for Packers receivers.

Maybe that'll look foolish in the end, but I just can't see a huge season his rookie year as the most likely outcome.

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4 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Maybe so, but Watson is very raw.  He's only had small school competition.  The film looks great because he's essentially Billy Madison playing dodgeball out there with elementary school kids.  I understand the enthusiasm but I doubt he comes out of the chute harder than say Jameson Williams or Drake London and personally I'm going to be looking more towards the vets A-Aron has a raport with already for Packers receivers.

Maybe that'll look foolish in the end, but I just can't see a huge season his rookie year as the most likely outcome.

If you're in a standard setup then you don't have to see anything right now and you can't. Smart money is on waiting and seeing how camps go. This isn't paint by numbers but you can treat it that way and maybe get away with it.

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Just now, Spyplane said:

If you're in a standard setup then you don't have to see anything right now and you can't. Smart money is on waiting and seeing how camps go. This isn't paint by numbers but you can treat it that way and maybe get away with it.

Sure, I'm just sharing my impressions with you now, they're never written in stone.

There are just receivers in this class with more polish IMO.  And yeah I get that Cobb and Lazard and Amari Rodgers etc. aren't Davante Adams.  But it would probably take some tremendous camp reports for me to say, "wow this guy could be Rodgers #1 target right away" at this point I'd probably be looking to him for a WR 4/5 lotto ticket.

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If you're considering Watson at a London ADP there's no hope for you. The appeal of a guy like Watson is that he's likely to be down the board in a place where the risk/reward is much more interesting. He doesn't even need to be Rodgers' "number one" to get the volume to be relevant. I don't think you fully get it. Adams being dealt and MVS signing elsewhere was the trigger to an offensive overhaul. First, no one is stepping into Adams' volume, that's not happening. There's going to be a 1A, 1B and maybe 1C in the receiver group. He's the only guy with the wheels, size and health to beat guys down field and he has the ability to do some of the gadget work. If they thought he was a project who couldn't help right now that trade doesn't happen and they use one of their much lower 2nds on an Amari Rodgers type dude who might not be able to bring if for two or three seasons, if ever. They paid a large price to go get him and its his spot in the starting lineup to lose.

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16 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

If you're considering Watson at a London ADP there's no hope for you. The appeal of a guy like Watson is that he's likely to be down the board in a place where the risk/reward is much more interesting. He doesn't even need to be Rodgers' "number one" to get the volume to be relevant. I don't think you fully get it. Adams being dealt and MVS signing elsewhere was the trigger to an offensive overhaul. First, no one is stepping into Adams' volume, that's not happening. There's going to be a 1A, 1B and maybe 1C in the receiver group. He's the only guy with the wheels, size and health to beat guys down field and he has the ability to do some of the gadget work. If they thought he was a project who couldn't help right now that trade doesn't happen and they use one of their much lower 2nds on an Amari Rodgers type dude who might not be able to bring if for two or three seasons, if ever. They paid a large price to go get him and its his spot in the starting lineup to lose.

Forgive me, I think we can pursue a better discourse than resorting to saying things like "If...then...there's no hope for you."  Let's assume we both have done a little bit of research on fantasy football and are entitled to disperate opinions that may or may not hold sway while we're talking about the subject in the NBCSportsEdge forums on the 6th of May, shall we?  I think it will yield a better conversation personally.

Yeah, I didn't say I would be drafting Watson at a London price, I'm just beginning to do research on how a redraft ADP for these rookies might work, as I assume we all are considering the draft happened last week.

I'm thinking maybe I'm seeing this differently than you are I guess.  Let me put it to you another way.  The Packers have introduced a number of receivers who eventually became fantasy relevant during Aaron Rodgers tenure, we all know their names.

Were any of them fantasy relevant in their rookie year?  If not, do we really think that a rookie, who in spite of having raw talent, played against small school competition, is in position to buck that trend?

I'm debating the merits of rostering Watson at all.  I saw him being compared to other rookies in other places and so I'm making the comparison as well.  To me at this particular moment, I see more potential with London as a WR3/low end WR2 than Watson as an end of bench flier, for instance.

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17 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

The appeal of a guy like Watson is that he's likely to be down the board in a place where the risk/reward is much more interesting. 

There we go. Now we are talking about risk/reward (what I wrote in my first post). I worry his ADP is going to climb to an unreasonable spot for a rookie WR who is very raw and has lots to learn. He only had 43 receptions last year - that is 3.5 a game. Another rookie from a smaller college, Skyy Moore, averaged nearly 8 receptions a game. They are going close to each other right now (ADP) - but that could change for both. I would rather spend that draft capital on a guy like Skyy Moore who has shown he can be the lead guy, soaking up 10+ targets a game. Could Watson out perform Moore - for sure, but there is more risk there. 

 

On 5/4/2022 at 8:52 AM, Big Nate said:

The risk is big with this guy and I'm not sure I'm willing to take that risk on where he is going to be drafted. I bet I don't own any of this guy this year. Could he blow up? Yes but I think the hype train (especially in redraft) is going to be too much. Even in my dynasty leagues I doubt I own this guy - too costly.

The current hype train worries me. Now if there are reports out of camp that he is struggling and slow to learn the playbook and get the trust of Rodgers then I am willing to take a flyer on him in hopes he gets things rolling in the 2nd half of the season. Then things are much more reasonable with his ADP.

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1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Forgive me, I think we can pursue a better discourse than resorting to saying things like "If...then...there's no hope for you."  Let's assume we both have done a little bit of research on fantasy football and are entitled to disperate opinions that may or may not hold sway while we're talking about the subject in the NBCSportsEdge forums on the 6th of May, shall we?  I think it will yield a better conversation personally.

Yeah, I didn't say I would be drafting Watson at a London price, I'm just beginning to do research on how a redraft ADP for these rookies might work, as I assume we all are considering the draft happened last week.

I'm thinking maybe I'm seeing this differently than you are I guess.  Let me put it to you another way.  The Packers have introduced a number of receivers who eventually became fantasy relevant during Aaron Rodgers tenure, we all know their names.

Were any of them fantasy relevant in their rookie year?  If not, do we really think that a rookie, who in spite of having raw talent, played against small school competition, is in position to buck that trend?

I'm debating the merits of rostering Watson at all.  I saw him being compared to other rookies in other places and so I'm making the comparison as well.  To me at this particular moment, I see more potential with London as a WR3/low end WR2 than Watson as an end of bench flier, for instance.

 

I was joking around but there's always some truth to a joke. Just beginning to do your research implies you've not done your research.

Cobb and Lazard are third or fourth options on a team with receiver depth at best. In the playoffs Rodgers had no faith in Cobb or Lazard to get it done when he looked them off most of the times they were open, which wasn't very often. Cobb is likely to regress more and Lazard is probably a lot older than you think, there's no untapped potential there. If Adams as a rookie had Lazard and Cobb in front of him the Packers would have given him a much longer leash because they would need him, they wouldn't have options to sit him. They would have no choice but to put up with a few extra drops or a blown route here or there. Ditto for Nelson and Cobb. Ditto for Jennings and Driver before him. I can't recall them being so depleted of good vet receivers ever since I've been watching the team and that stretches back to '96.

Edit: The first person to contact Watson when he was drafted was Aaron Rodgers. You know, the guy who has no time for rookies? He has lots of time now because he needs to build this rookie up fast if he wants to win a Super Bowl.

Edited by Spyplane
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1 minute ago, Spyplane said:

 

I was joking around but there's always some truth to a joke. Just beginning to do your research implies you've not done your research.

Cobb and Lazard are third or fourth options on a team with receiver depth at best. In the playoffs Rodgers had no faith in Cobb or Lazard to get it done when he looked them off most of the times they were open, which wasn't very often. Cobb is likely to regress more and Lazard is probably a lot older than you think, there's no untapped potential there. If Adams as a rookie had Lazard and Cobb in front of him the Packers would have given him a much longer leash because they would need him, they wouldn't have options to sit him. They would have no choice but to put up with a few extra drops or a blown route here or there. Ditto for Nelson and Cobb. Ditto for Jennings and Driver before him. I can't recall them being so depleted of good vet receivers ever since I've been watching the team and that stretches back to '96.

 

I understand your theory, really I do.

I think you're just underestimating how raw Watkins is, and you're translating his athletic abilities and Cobb's deterorating skill and Lazard's lack of consistency to mean that he steps in and does more statistically than any other rookie in Rodgers tenure (and in order to be rosterable in a standard league that's exactly what he'd need to do).

IMO, even if Cobb is deterorating and Lazard is inconsistent, their familiarity with the offense and Rodgers, and their experience in the NFL will dicate that they need to be used too often while Watkins is learning how to play against NFL caliber corners and defensive schemes for at least this year.

I predict his rookie season statistically won't vary much from Jordy Nelson's or Greg Jenning's or Davante Adams's even if the other WRs aren't that talented, because well dude, he's still a rookie, and he played at North Dakota State.  You understand?

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