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Jalen Hurts 2022 Outlook


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Well as much as I have gone on record as saying I think he sucks as an NFL QB I ended up drafting him at QB6 yesterday in my main league(4 pt passing TD). It had more to do with the fact I just thought there was a massive dropoff in upside after him, than me turning the corner and believing in him. I don't really see Burrow cracking top 5 in a 4 pt passing TD league, and I think Brady is going to regress back to a fringe top 10ish fantasy QB.

I think Hurts is riskier because I could see a scenario he play awful and the Eagles lose and he gets benched which won't happen with Burrow, Brady, Wilson, Prescott, Stafford, etc but in fantasy you rarely win by giving up upside to play it safe.

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52 minutes ago, owenmills said:

Well as much as I have gone on record as saying I think he sucks as an NFL QB I ended up drafting him at QB6 yesterday in my main league(4 pt passing TD). It had more to do with the fact I just thought there was a massive dropoff in upside after him, than me turning the corner and believing in him. I don't really see Burrow cracking top 5 in a 4 pt passing TD league, and I think Brady is going to regress back to a fringe top 10ish fantasy QB.

I think Hurts is riskier because I could see a scenario he play awful and the Eagles lose and he gets benched which won't happen with Burrow, Brady, Wilson, Prescott, Stafford, etc but in fantasy you rarely win by giving up upside to play it safe.

I agree that Hurts could be on a leash, but I think they will give him the full season regardless of how he does. Minshew has not had a good camp. They don't have much behind Hurts. But this is a make or break it year for Hurts. Because if he flounders I see the team moving on next season.

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7 minutes ago, devaster said:

I agree that Hurts could be on a leash, but I think they will give him the full season regardless of how he does. Minshew has not had a good camp. They don't have much behind Hurts. But this is a make or break it year for Hurts. Because if he flounders I see the team moving on next season.

Yeah, absolutely no way they could stick with him another year if he doesn't play well after investing so much in the talent around the QB position. The fact that they didn't bring anyone else in at QB helps his odds of lasting the whole season but it looked ugly for him at times last year...

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His ADP is certainly up there so you can't say he's even a great bargain but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him finish a top 5 QB. An extra year for him and Devonta, along with the Brown signing, no reason to think he won't be better than last year. 

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I've been following camp reports closely on Hurts. Outside of a few early practices the reports have been glowing. Everything I'm hearing is hes looking more decisive and is making better decisions. 

I'm always looking to land the QB1 without paying the QB1 price in fantasy. Obv Allen is the best bet for it but I'm aiming Murray/Hurts/Lance for my discounted bet on a QB1 later in the draft. I'm of course happy with Mahomes/Jackson/Herbert/Allen but those guys rarely fall.  Seems like currently in the drafts I'm doing round 6-8 is the sweet spot with Lance going last of the trio normally a round later. Lance and Hurts seem to be moving up by the week in drafts unfortunately.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Dr.Funktopus said:

What are we all hoping for here?

4000 / 25 / 18 // 700 / 7?that’s a lot of hope 

that seems like a lot of hope in the passing department but very feasible rushing numbers.

last year the last 6 games of the season the eagles made a change and started to be the most run heavy team in the league and won 5 of 6 games and made the playoffs during this span hurts stats fell off and were saved by his rushing TDs (5 in 2 games) 
 

first 9 games hurts was on a 17 game pace for 3700- 20tds- 900 rush yards and 10TDs

last 6 games had a pace of 3200 yards - 14TDs - 820 rush yards and 14 tds.

depending on how the eagles play I doubt his passing stats can get near 4000 yards and 25 TDs. But he should be able to hit the rushing totals. 

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3 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

that seems like a lot of hope in the passing department but very feasible rushing numbers.

last year the last 6 games of the season the eagles made a change and started to be the most run heavy team in the league and won 5 of 6 games and made the playoffs during this span hurts stats fell off and were saved by his rushing TDs (5 in 2 games) 
 

first 9 games hurts was on a 17 game pace for 3700- 20tds- 900 rush yards and 10TDs

last 6 games had a pace of 3200 yards - 14TDs - 820 rush yards and 14 tds.

depending on how the eagles play I doubt his passing stats can get near 4000 yards and 25 TDs. But he should be able to hit the rushing totals. 

Its easy to be pessimistic about his passing yards if you expect them to be as run heavy as they ended last season. I expect that might not be the case.

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15 minutes ago, Evincar said:

Its easy to be pessimistic about his passing yards if you expect them to be as run heavy as they ended last season. I expect that might not be the case.

 They traded a 1st and 3rd and then backed up the truck of cash for a #1 WR. This follows a offseason where they used assets to move up to trade for D.Smith. With the investment they made in these guys its pretty clear they want to throw the ball.

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19 minutes ago, buzzkilloton said:

 They traded a 1st and 3rd and then backed up the truck of cash for a #1 WR. This follows a offseason where they used assets to move up to trade for D.Smith. With the investment they made in these guys its pretty clear they want to throw the ball.

Well wanting to do something and being able too are different. Hurts needs to take a big step forward but it’s possible 

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4 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

first 9 games hurts was on a 17 game pace for 3700- 20tds- 900 rush yards and 10TDs

last 6 games had a pace of 3200 yards - 14TDs - 820 rush yards and 14 tds.

depending on how the eagles play I doubt his passing stats can get near 4000 yards and 25 TDs. But he should be able to hit the rushing totals. 

So, if we say that they stay with the passing attack from the first half, add in AJ Brown...

What am I missing?

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Just now, Dr.Funktopus said:

So, if we say that they stay with the passing attack from the first half, add in AJ Brown...

What am I missing?

Well teams usually don’t like losing ball games and the eagles were 3-6 with that approach. Meanwhile they were 5-1 with the other. 
 

like I said it’s not impossible. But he won’t get as much free garbage time stats this year either.

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10 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Well teams usually don’t like losing ball games and the eagles were 3-6 with that approach. Meanwhile they were 5-1 with the other. 
 

like I said it’s not impossible. But he won’t get as much free garbage time stats this year either.

I guess I just believe that Sirianni clearly prefers to pass in his offense if that is how it started, and AJ Brown vs. JAG receiver might have been the bigger problem than just Hurts... 

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2 hours ago, buzzkilloton said:

 They traded a 1st and 3rd and then backed up the truck of cash for a #1 WR. This follows a offseason where they used assets to move up to trade for D.Smith. With the investment they made in these guys its pretty clear they want to throw the ball.

 

If they want to throw the ball the guy they should want under Center is named Minshew not Hurts. 

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1 hour ago, InVINCEable said:

Saw he is Matthew Berry’s Ride or Die. Not sure if that is good news or not...

 

That's terrible. 

 

Matthew berry died to me 12 years ago when he made me take Michael Vick as his ride or die. 

 

After that year I have always done the opposite of what Matthew berry has said and I've been happier, wealthier and more successful ever since. 

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1 hour ago, Stonej14 said:

Well teams usually don’t like losing ball games and the eagles were 3-6 with that approach. Meanwhile they were 5-1 with the other. 
 

like I said it’s not impossible. But he won’t get as much free garbage time stats this year either.

 

You're saying this like their schedule had nothing to do with that. 

 

They beat even worse non playoff teams down the stretch and got B slapped in the playoffs. 

 

2 wins against WFT and 2 New York garbage teams doesn't make this run heavy approach the secret sauce. 

 

They probably could've run wild cat or some other asinine offense and had same record down stretch. 

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41 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

You're saying this like their schedule had nothing to do with that. 

 

They beat even worse non playoff teams down the stretch and got B slapped in the playoffs. 

 

2 wins against WFT and 2 New York garbage teams doesn't make this run heavy approach the secret sauce. 

 

They probably could've run wild cat or some other asinine offense and had same record down stretch. 

They actually lost one of those games vs The giants and hurts passed it 31 times for 129 yards and 3 interceptions. They also soundly beat Denver and New Orleans who had top 10 scoring defenses. I think Washington also had a top 10 defense. 
 

The only teams they beat passing it a lot were Atlanta, Carolina, and Detroit. Probably coulda beat them if they didn’t have a QB.. Shoulda lost to Carolina too. Panthers gave it away. 

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20 hours ago, owenmills said:

I think there’s no chance this buttsniffer gets anywhere close to 4k passing yards but his rushing could be even better than 700/7 if he plays 17 healthy games 

Well surely you must be projecting Hurts for regression as a passer? That buttsniffer was on a 17 game pace to clear 3,500 yards last season. Is it really that inconceivable that he could throw for 29 yards per game more this upcoming season to clear 4k? They just added one of the most talented WRs in the league (essentially replacing Reagor with Brown), they have a very talented Smith heading into year 2, a very talented tight end in Goedert, Hurts returns to the same system as the prior year for the first time since high school (continuity matters), and training camp reports have been glowing. 4k passing yards is very doable. 

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17 minutes ago, FinsUp24 said:

Well surely you must be projecting Hurts for regression as a passer? That buttsniffer was on a 17 game pace to clear 3,500 yards last season. Is it really that inconceivable that he could throw for 29 yards per game more this upcoming season to clear 4k? They just added one of the most talented WRs in the league (essentially replacing Reagor with Brown), they have a very talented Smith heading into year 2, a very talented tight end in Goedert, Hurts returns to the same system as the prior year for the first time since high school (continuity matters), and training camp reports have been glowing. 4k passing yards is very doable. 

I don't think that is what they are projecting. There was a distinct difference in offense philosophy for the team when they were losing games (1st half of last season) and winning games (2nd half of last season). And the throwing stats are very different extrapolated from those two samples.

The team has set themselves up to throw more with the OLine additions/improvements and WR addition of AJ Brown. Whether that actually ends up happening is a question mark.

The Eagles' coaching staff took the ball out of Hurts' hands last season in the 2nd half and played ball control ground and pound and were winning games with the formula. Obviously that formula failed in the playoffs against better competition. They need Hurts to throw the ball more often and be a better thrower to have an opportunity of sniffing the playoffs this season. I think they are going to lean more on Hurts passing and it could yield better stats. But who knows if they stick with it if Hurts continue to be as terrible a passer as he was last season. Perhaps some of the blame for Hurts as a passer last season is on the receiving options (I don't really buy that), but that excuse won't be there this season. They need Hurts to succeed as a passer for overall team success.

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1 hour ago, FinsUp24 said:

Well surely you must be projecting Hurts for regression as a passer? That buttsniffer was on a 17 game pace to clear 3,500 yards last season. Is it really that inconceivable that he could throw for 29 yards per game more this upcoming season to clear 4k? They just added one of the most talented WRs in the league (essentially replacing Reagor with Brown), they have a very talented Smith heading into year 2, a very talented tight end in Goedert, Hurts returns to the same system as the prior year for the first time since high school (continuity matters), and training camp reports have been glowing. 4k passing yards is very doable. 

I’ve posted about this already in this thread. The 2nd half of the season(when they ran more and let him throw less) his pace was far lower. That’s the offense they’ll probably run. The days of them having single digit rushes and letting Hurts heave it all over the field, look like a** for 3 quarters then rack up garage time stats galore, are probably over.

I think 3,500 yards is possible. I honestly think that would be him taking a small step forward, because he’ll probably have to be more efficient than last year to hit those numbers if they remain committed to the run. I don’t think the guy has 4k yards in him.

I do think he could be a rushing machine and very good fantasy QB if he stays healthy and doesn’t get benched though.

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1 hour ago, owenmills said:

I’ve posted about this already in this thread. The 2nd half of the season(when they ran more and let him throw less) his pace was far lower. That’s the offense they’ll probably run. The days of them having single digit rushes and letting Hurts heave it all over the field, look like a** for 3 quarters then rack up garage time stats galore, are probably over.

I think 3,500 yards is possible. I honestly think that would be him taking a small step forward…

Let’s just agree on 3500 as a projection. I still think 4K is possible, but 3500 is reasonable.

my one follow up though is this idea that “that’s the offense they’ll probably run.” They certainly haven’t said that is the case. They went out and signed a big receiver, right? Other than they went ground and pound at the end of last year, has anything else been said about staying that way?

Cant someone just as easily say “the ground and pound offense really failed in the playoffs. Looks like they’ll try and go back to what the original plan was in the first half of the season, and hope hurts plays better…”?

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