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Jalen Hurts 2022 Outlook


nn4mz
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Concerns about losing to benching are valid, but here's a key- they drew the awesome schedule this year.  They're getting the NFC North AND the AFC South.   The three worst divisions in the league IMO will produce 14 of their opponents, and the other games are Arizona, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans- all decent teams perhaps but they play maybe 3 games against what I'd call a top 10 NFL team.   This is another 9-10 win season in which they probably easily get a WC without having to beat anyone good.  

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48 minutes ago, BrianM said:

They're getting the NFC North AND the AFC South.   The three worst divisions in the league IMO

(The 3rd one being their own NFC East of course).

How confident are you in your ability to predict which teams will be strong/weak? Outside the occasional division doormat/powerhouse, I personally am surprised every year, and so is Las Vegas (meaning I'm not the only one). SRS is not a thing in June. October, maybe - but not in June.

Besides, are you sure the Packers/Titans/Vikings/Cowboys are that weak? Sure, they're getting the Lions/Jags/Giants but I wouldn't be too surprised if at the bye week they're 2-4.

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5 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

How confident are you in your ability to predict which teams will be strong/weak? Outside the occasional division doormat/powerhouse, I personally am surprised every year, and so is Las Vegas (meaning I'm not the only one). SRS is not a thing in June. October, maybe - but not in June.

I'm sure there's some surprises in that group- Jags could make some moves now that they're reverse gentrified.  Lions look on the way up.   The Giants almost certainly are improved by subtraction of the old front office alone.   But I don't think anyone can deny that Philly is way better off getting the AFC South over the North or West, for sure, and while the NFC South isn't super hot, the North is still meh, and the West is clearly the cream there.  

In terms of GB/MIN/TEN/DAL, GB is still good, but they're not as good as last year.  Given the fact that Philly had to play one of them, TB, or Rams, I'd take GB.   Minnesota's fine, but Philly could beat them.     Titans.....again take them over Buffalo/KC/Cincy, and they had to get one.   Also, Dallas is good sure, but Philly splitting with them ain't hard to imagine.  

 

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  • 1 month later...

I'm going to tell you a story about a quarterback who many considered to be about QB7-10 in fantasy drafts, a guy who had flashed some talent but was mainly considered more of a running threat than a thrower, a guy who was generally well regarded in college but had some warts during the draft process that allowed some other quarterbacks to be taken ahead of him.

This guy played with a talented offensive line, and the skills players were a little questionable, but they brought in a WR who many regarded as an elite talent who may not have gotten as many targets as he warranted in his previous locale.

At offensive coordinator they brought in a bit of a younger wunderkind who had helped the maturation of quarterbacks in previous destinations, and they had a year of continuity before the fantasy draft that I am alluding to.

That quarterbacks name?  Albert Einstein.

Oh no, wait, I'm wrong.  Josh Allen in 2020.

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Hurts' 2021 fantasy campaign was a tale of 2 seasons. For the first half of the season they inexplicably seemed to think Hurts was Russell Wilson and let him throw...a lot. And when they got behind in games, which was always, they let him throw a lot more. His garbage time stats were epic. The guy would suck a** for the 1st half of game and then light it up in the 2nd half, particularly when the other team started playing soft D in the 4th quarter. Week 7 vs the Raiders is a prime example of this. Trailing 7-30 entering the 4th quarter and with extremely poor stats, Hurts proceeded to go 11-18 for 126 yards and a TD in the quarter, adding 25 more rushing yards. They lost 22-33, but he put up 24 fantasy points. In fact, he scored over 20 fantasy points every week up to that point. Truly a garbage time hero.

The usage of their running backs during this stretch was nothing short of comical. The carries by running backs in those 7 weeks were 24, 19, 3, 11, 13, 9, 18. Yes one week Eagles running backs got 3 total carries. 

The week 7 game against the Raiders turned out to be the week they decided it was an awful strategy for their team's prospects of winning games, and in week 8 they committed very heavily to establishing the run and not forcing(or allowing) Hurts to do too much. They handed the ball off 37 times that game and won. Hurts had 11 fantasy points. They ran the ball a lot more going forward, and won a lot more games. They had at least 25 carries by running backs every game, with several games over 30. Hurts' fantasy numbers dropped, and he averaged about 18 fantasy points per game from week 8 on. I believe he was QB1 or close to it through week 7. 18 fantasy points/game isn't terrible, but it would've put him at QB12 last year on PPG basis. 

So the question you have to ask yourself is, what's his trajectory in 2022? To project this you have to know where he's starting from. If you just look at his total points or PPG from 2021(21.4 - QB9) and think that's what he's building off of, I think you're making a mistake because the Eagles will never go back to that offensive philosophy that made him a fantasy god. His baseline for 2022 is probably QB10-12, barring him actually playing better. Acquiring AJ Brown can't hurt but I'm not sure I'm very confident in him stepping up and taking advantage of it. 

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1 minute ago, owenmills said:

Hurts' 2021 fantasy campaign was a tale of 2 seasons. For the first half of the season they inexplicably seemed to think Hurts was Russell Wilson and let him throw...a lot. And when they got behind in games, which was always, they let him throw a lot more. His garbage time stats were epic. The guy would suck a** for the 1st half of game and then light it up in the 2nd half, particularly when the other team started playing soft D in the 4th quarter. Week 7 vs the Raiders is a prime example of this. Trailing 7-30 entering the 4th quarter and with extremely poor stats, Hurts proceeded to go 11-18 for 126 yards and a TD in the quarter, adding 25 more rushing yards. They lost 22-33, but he put up 24 fantasy points. In fact, he scored over 20 fantasy points every week up to that point. Truly a garbage time hero.

The usage of their running backs during this stretch was nothing short of comical. The carries by running backs in those 7 weeks were 24, 19, 3, 11, 13, 9, 18. Yes one week Eagles running backs got 3 total carries. 

The week 7 game against the Raiders turned out to be the week they decided it was an awful strategy for their team's prospects of winning games, and in week 8 they committed very heavily to establishing the run and not forcing(or allowing) Hurts to do too much. They handed the ball off 37 times that game and won. Hurts had 11 fantasy points. They ran the ball a lot more going forward, and won a lot more games. They had at least 25 carries by running backs every game, with several games over 30. Hurts' fantasy numbers dropped, and he averaged about 18 fantasy points per game from week 8 on. I believe he was QB1 or close to it through week 7. 18 fantasy points/game isn't terrible, but it would've put him at QB12 last year on PPG basis. 

So the question you have to ask yourself is, what's his trajectory in 2022? To project this you have to know where he's starting from. If you just look at his total points or PPG from 2021(21.4 - QB9) and think that's what he's building off of, I think you're making a mistake because the Eagles will never go back to that offensive philosophy that made him a fantasy god. His baseline for 2022 is probably QB10-12, barring him actually playing better. Acquiring AJ Brown can't hurt but I'm not sure I'm very confident in him stepping up and taking advantage of it. 

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4 hours ago, owenmills said:

Hurts' 2021 fantasy campaign was a tale of 2 seasons. For the first half of the season they inexplicably seemed to think Hurts was Russell Wilson and let him throw...a lot. And when they got behind in games, which was always, they let him throw a lot more. His garbage time stats were epic. The guy would suck a** for the 1st half of game and then light it up in the 2nd half, particularly when the other team started playing soft D in the 4th quarter. Week 7 vs the Raiders is a prime example of this. Trailing 7-30 entering the 4th quarter and with extremely poor stats, Hurts proceeded to go 11-18 for 126 yards and a TD in the quarter, adding 25 more rushing yards. They lost 22-33, but he put up 24 fantasy points. In fact, he scored over 20 fantasy points every week up to that point. Truly a garbage time hero.

The usage of their running backs during this stretch was nothing short of comical. The carries by running backs in those 7 weeks were 24, 19, 3, 11, 13, 9, 18. Yes one week Eagles running backs got 3 total carries. 

The week 7 game against the Raiders turned out to be the week they decided it was an awful strategy for their team's prospects of winning games, and in week 8 they committed very heavily to establishing the run and not forcing(or allowing) Hurts to do too much. They handed the ball off 37 times that game and won. Hurts had 11 fantasy points. They ran the ball a lot more going forward, and won a lot more games. They had at least 25 carries by running backs every game, with several games over 30. Hurts' fantasy numbers dropped, and he averaged about 18 fantasy points per game from week 8 on. I believe he was QB1 or close to it through week 7. 18 fantasy points/game isn't terrible, but it would've put him at QB12 last year on PPG basis. 

So the question you have to ask yourself is, what's his trajectory in 2022? To project this you have to know where he's starting from. If you just look at his total points or PPG from 2021(21.4 - QB9) and think that's what he's building off of, I think you're making a mistake because the Eagles will never go back to that offensive philosophy that made him a fantasy god. His baseline for 2022 is probably QB10-12, barring him actually playing better. Acquiring AJ Brown can't hurt but I'm not sure I'm very confident in him stepping up and taking advantage of it. 

Great post.  Just wanted to back this up with some stats.

Through the first 7 weeks of the season, Hurts was QB2, to only Tom Brady.  Hurtz averaged 24.96ppg over these weeks.
Through weeks 8-17 he was QB10, averaging only 18.30ppg.

Even more noteworthy, that 18ppg average was actually 2 games of 28+ where he blew up, and 7 games of really bad production.
10, 11, 13, 16, 16, 16, 19. and his blow up weeks of 28 and 30.  That's potentially crippling to your team for 7 weeks.

With the addition of AJ Brown, I had actually moved Hurtz up my board, but based on these splits, and a more accurate assessment of the offense as a whole, I'm thinking I'll drop him back down 2 spots, where I had him originally.

Based on prices, I'm not sure I see a clear upside of Hurtz vs Prescott, but Dak is 2 full rounds cheaper.  If I'm waiting that long to get a QB in the first place, I'm probably going to full send, and wait for Russ who everyone seems to be writing off for dead, and maybe take a swing on a pure upside QB like Lance or Fields, just as a short term evaluation.  And if I'm really waiting or gambling at QB, Watson can be drafted for pennies right now, if you think he plays half the season for 12th round pick, that's definitely worth it, and I'll fill in for the first half of the year with whoever.

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12 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

Great post.  Just wanted to back this up with some stats.

Through the first 7 weeks of the season, Hurts was QB2, to only Tom Brady.  Hurtz averaged 24.96ppg over these weeks.
Through weeks 8-17 he was QB10, averaging only 18.30ppg.

Even more noteworthy, that 18ppg average was actually 2 games of 28+ where he blew up, and 7 games of really bad production.
10, 11, 13, 16, 16, 16, 19. and his blow up weeks of 28 and 30.  That's potentially crippling to your team for 7 weeks.

With the addition of AJ Brown, I had actually moved Hurtz up my board, but based on these splits, and a more accurate assessment of the offense as a whole, I'm thinking I'll drop him back down 2 spots, where I had him originally.

Based on prices, I'm not sure I see a clear upside of Hurtz vs Prescott, but Dak is 2 full rounds cheaper.  If I'm waiting that long to get a QB in the first place, I'm probably going to full send, and wait for Russ who everyone seems to be writing off for dead, and maybe take a swing on a pure upside QB like Lance or Fields, just as a short term evaluation.  And if I'm really waiting or gambling at QB, Watson can be drafted for pennies right now, if you think he plays half the season for 12th round pick, that's definitely worth it, and I'll fill in for the first half of the year with whoever.

Yea but to dig a little deeper, the Eagles went 7-2 through weeks 9-17. A lot of those games were blowouts, which resulted in less heroics needed from Hurts (especially as he was nursing an ankle injury). I don’t think it makes sense to project the Eagles to go 14-3 or 13-4, so it also doesn’t make sense to base our 2022 projections on the back half of last season. 
 

This of course doesn’t factor in: Addition of elite WR talent, second year in system (first time since high school), and natural progression. He’s going to be awesome this year. 

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I get that they had more offensive success running the ball more in the second half of the season, but wasn't that aided by them playing some truly wretched run defenses?

I see a lot of Chargers, Lions, Jets, NYG here.  All bottom 10 outfits in run defense.

I get you WANT to run, but if you're not playing cupcakes all year, CAN you?

Assuming you're not hiding a Hurts injury and you want to showcase Brown, doesn't that lend itself to a different theory of the case than what last year's offense turned into?

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Also keep in mind Hurts suffered a high ankle sprain towards the middle of the season. Those bad boys tend to linger and sap explosiveness; I would not be surprised if he wasn't fully healed the entire second half of the year.

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1 hour ago, harck said:

Also keep in mind Hurts suffered a high ankle sprain towards the middle of the season. Those bad boys tend to linger and sap explosiveness; I would not be surprised if he wasn't fully healed the entire second half of the year.

Of course he wasn’t fully healthy. He needed offseason surgery on his ankle to fix it lol. 

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Yeah when I look at these individual game logs after the Raiders game it seems like a couple games in particular really skew down the average, the Detroit game they won 44-6 and the Giant game that ended 13-7 that I would attribute to NFC East shennanigans.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HurtJa00/fantasy/2021/

The rest of this doesn't look that bad.  Of course he was hotter in the beginning of the year before the ankle injury when they were playing closer games against better teams (and teams better at run defense) but I am not sure that the "he fell off a cliff statistically and they took off as a team" idea is something that sustains itself into next year.

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1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

but I am not sure that the "he fell off a cliff statistically and they took off as a team" idea is something that sustains itself into next year.

You put that in quotes, but who actually said he fell off a cliff statistically? His fantasy numbers did drop pretty significantly, and the team did win a lot more games with the run heavy gameplan though. Those things can't really be refuted. If you want to call it falling off a cliff that's fine but is it normal to quote yourself?

They didn't play just creampuff run defenses in the 2nd half of the season as you theorized. They played a bunch of stout to solid run defenses and didn't shy away from the run at all against them. It was obvious the team found an identity with the run first, conservative passing gameplan. I would be shocked if they go another direction in 2022. What that means is the formula to Hurts fantasy breakout that seemed to be materializing those first 7 games isn't coming back, and Hurts will have to get a lot better as a passer to get there. Otherwise 2022 will play out like the 2nd half of 2021, with Hurts having some big games(particularly when he scores rushing TDs) and a lot of duds when the RBs get the tuddies, and ultimately his PPG will probably land around his ADP or slightly lower. 

I don't want it to sound like I think he's an awful fantasy pick at his ADP, I just don't believe in him and therefore do not have him highlighted in my rankings as a target with breakout potential. So he probably won't end up on my teams. I also want to provide some actual data because it seems like a lot of the narrative with him is that he's a fantasy goldmine regardless of how much he sucks as a passing QB, and that was not the case at all from week 8 on.

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3 minutes ago, owenmills said:

They didn't play just creampuff run defenses in the 2nd half of the season as you theorized. They played a bunch of stout to solid run defenses and didn't shy away from the run at all against them.

Raiders game is where we had the presumptive change yeah?

After that they had Detroit, LAC, Denver, NO, NYG x2, WSH ×2, and Dallas.

Saints were an excellent run defense, probably your best theory of the case.  Washington was top 10 as well, one game Sanders did well, the other Hurts moved the ball himself through the air before Scott scored a couple bunnies.

Denver and Dallas were both right about average in terms of rushing yards allowed.

Detroit, LAC, and the two NYG games they played against the bottom 10 rushing yardage defenses in the NFL.

So I'd say 4 of these games illustrated my point, 2 illustrated yours, and 3 are kind of ambiguous.

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9 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

So I'd say 4 of these games illustrated my point, 2 illustrated yours, and 3 are kind of ambiguous.

Not sure I follow. The point was they didn't veer from their run first, conservative passing strategy even against stout run defenses. They never opened the passing offense back up and let Hurts throw as much as earlier in the year. First 7 weeks he exceeded 30 passing attempts 5 times. His last 9 games he exceeded 30 attempts once.

He wasn't a good passing QB last year, but in that early run he made up for his inefficiency with volume. After the shift the only big games he had fantasy-wise were when he scored multiple rushing TDs, and that's how it's going to be this season unless he takes a big step forward as a passer.

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6 minutes ago, owenmills said:

Not sure I follow. The point was they didn't veer from their run first, conservative passing strategy even against stout run defenses. They never opened the passing offense back up and let Hurts throw as much as earlier in the year. First 7 weeks he exceeded 30 passing attempts 5 times. His last 9 games he exceeded 30 attempts once.

Sure, I'll specify, what I was responding to was this:

37 minutes ago, owenmills said:

They didn't play just creampuff run defenses in the 2nd half of the season as you theorized. They played a bunch of stout to solid run defenses and didn't shy away from the run at all against them.

No they didn't play "just" creampuff run defenses, but 4 games of the sample size we're talking about here (9 games) was (or, rather 66% of the run defenses they faced were in the "average to creampuff vein).

Three games I'd say we're against "stout" run defenses, one of those three they didn't have a whole lot of success running with the backs.

So if your theory is, "they keep running and they keep winning against good run defenses" I'd say that happened twice.

If my theory is, "it's easy to keep running against defenses which aren't imposing in that category, particularly if Hurts is playing with an ankle injury, and when he is healthy, they add AJ Brown to the mix, he has another year in the same system, and they go against teams that are better at stopping the run, they don't take the same approach" well then I'd say that they played 4 to 6 games in that 9 game stretch against teams where, well, of course you'd run against them, anyone would.

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8 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

So if your theory is, "they keep running and they keep winning against good run defenses" I'd say that happened twice.

What I'm saying isn't that complicated. They found a formula that worked(run more, have Hurts throw less) and after having made the playoffs with it I believe they'll stick to it. What that means is the days of Hurts easily throwing up 20 points due to sheer volume are over. I think a lot of people here who didn't have the perspective of owning him and riding the roller coaster all year don't realize there was a big shift during the 2021 season. Someone above said he's a 'guaranteed smash' when he plays. That was NOT the case from week 8 on, and that's simply what I'm trying to convey. 

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1 minute ago, owenmills said:

What I'm saying isn't that complicated. They found a formula that worked(run more, have Hurts throw less) and after having made the playoffs with it I believe they'll stick to it. What that means is the days of Hurts easily throwing up 20 points due to sheer volume are over. I think a lot of people here who didn't have the perspective of owning him and riding the roller coaster all year don't realize there was a big shift during the 2021 season. Someone above said he's a 'guaranteed smash' when he plays. That was NOT the case from week 8 on, and that's simply what I'm trying to convey. 

Yeah I understand that, really I do.

I guess what I am saying is that there is a greater conext there than simply "handing off leads to winning" and that given a few other factors, they may win in different ways this year than they did last year, and subsequently Hurts may score fantasy points in different ways than he did last year. 

Like having the ankle healthy the whole way and adding Brown creates a different Hurts and a different team than the Jekyl and Hyde scenario last year.  Possibly out of necessity, when they aren't playing the Chargers and the Lions, and possibly because it works better, because Hurts is still a dynamic runner when healthy and because Brown is the best WR he's had.

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8 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Yeah I understand that, really I do.

I guess what I am saying is that there is a greater conext there than simply "handing off leads to winning" and that given a few other factors, they may win in different ways this year than they did last year, and subsequently Hurts may score fantasy points in different ways than he did last year. 

Like having the ankle healthy the whole way and adding Brown creates a different Hurts and a different team than the Jekyl and Hyde scenario last year.  Possibly out of necessity, when they aren't playing the Chargers and the Lions, and possibly because it works better, because Hurts is still a dynamic runner when healthy and because Brown is the best WR he's had.

Hurts is he's playing in an age where QBs score so many fantasy points. Even the mobile QBs have to be able to rack up gaudy passing stats to be elite in today's fantasy landscape. It wasn't always like that. Tebow was borderline elite in fantasy a decade ago and he barely did anything passing the ball. 11 QBs last year averaged 20 points/game or more. In 2011 5 guys did it. Hurts was one of the 11 in 2021 but if you remove the first 7 weeks he was at 18/week. 

I was just throwing data out there to help people evaluate Hurts. Most of the time you have to dig into a player's total fantasy points or PPG to identify trends to help project what he's going to do, and I owned him last year and was acutely aware of how his season went down so thought I'd share. I don't care if people want to draft Hurts or think he has upside. Go for it. He might score more fantasy point than last year. 

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2 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Stuff

I just have a few things to add, but I don't feel strongly enough about them to fight any opposing opinions.

1: Why would Hurts high ankle sprain lead to less throwing, rather than more?  Side note, he averaged the same amount of rushing attempts weeks 1-7 as he did 8-17
2: Even if what you say is true, do you want a QB who is only good (fantasy wise) in games the Eagles are losing?  Especially when I think we can agree they're the best team in their division, and probably going to win more often than not.
3: Cake matchup or not, the Eagles have teh #1 Oline in the NFL, I don't think they care how good/bad the defense is at stopping the run.  They have 13 RBs, and they like to get them all 6 touches a game, and Hurts isn't going to stop running either.

The only thing I can say, is that they traded for AJ Brown, which indicates they have plans to continue throwing the ball, because Smith looked really good to me, so they have 2 great WRs.  Why do that, if you don't intend to throw the ball to them.  I think his Passing TDs likely go up.

All in all, he seems perfectly balanced.  He's QB7 overall, right next to Dak and Kyler. but firmly after Lamar.  I'm on board with that.
Personally, I moved him up with the AJ Brown signing, and then back down to where I previously had him, after realizing how hot/cold his stats were.  QB8 for me, but Dak and Wilson are significantly cheaper on draft day, and I'd gladly pay a 1 round premium for Lamar, so it's extremely unlikely I'll own Hurts.

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4 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Why would Hurts high ankle sprain lead to less throwing, rather than more?  Side note, he averaged the same amount of rushing attempts weeks 1-7 as he did 8-17

Just spitballing here, but if I'm a coach who is trying to get my quarterbacks HAS through the season I'm calling the least amount of plays where he draws contact that still allow us to win, particularly if the opposing team has a bad run defense.  RPOs in particular probably go out the window.  But if he's handing the ball off he's not getting hit, or having to plant and throw.

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  • 2 weeks later...
2 hours ago, owenmills said:

Matthew Berry was talking him up pregame of the TNF game. You've arrived Jalen! 

Yeah top 5 is where I'd expect him to finish as well. Year under his belt, better weapons, and still no elite RB. It's virtually the perfect situation for a QB like him to thrive. 

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