Jalen Hurts 2022 Outlook

[nn4mz]

My man now has Reagor, Smith and now, AJ Brown.

I don’t have him on as thin of ice as I have Tua, but I do expect to see some significant improvement to the passing game with him there.  

If he can’t—Problems.

What say y’all?  Where do you take/rank him?

Edited April 29, 2022 by nn4mz

[MingusDew]

Just now, nn4mz said:

My man now has Reagor, Smith and now, AJ Brown.

I don’t have him on as thin as a line as I have Tua, but I do expect to see some significant improvement to the passing game with him there.  

If he can’t—Problems.

What say y’all?  Where do you take/rank him?

He was a trash passer last year and was still a QB1. He'll do it again.

[FinsUp24]

Top 5 fantasy QB who is unlikely to be drafted that high. He’s pure upside with very minimal risk. The real risk is that he’s a bum and loses his job mid game or midseason. As long as he plays all four quarters, I feel very good about him putting up high end numbers consistently. I was of the opinion that he was going to improve as a passer this year before the AJB trade. Now that feels certain.  AJB is the picture perfect weapon for a guy like Hurts. Overall QB1 finish is certainly within his range of outcomes. Losing his job to Minshew by midseason is also a very possible lol. 

[PlayTheWaivers]

1 hour ago, MingusDew said:

He was a trash passer last year and was still a QB1. He'll do it again.

The challenge for him is the 2h of the year where they really ramped down the passing attempts. rushing is fine, but yes I do see low-end QB1 with upside for more. I hope they just get these guys the ball in space. 

[kdko]

Reagor?  You need to replace that name with Quez.  Reagor is gonna be gone.  

[owenmills]

Reagor massively sucks

Hurts sucks too as a passer but he is a very good fantasy QB because of the running. You have to wonder how long he'll be the starter there though because he's really just a glorified game manager in real life. The team only found success in the 2nd half of the season when they took the ball out of his hands and leaned on the run game and their defense. 

I guess he may get another year since they haven't brought anyone in to challenge him

[lolcopter]

Say what you will about his passing ability, but that receiving group quite frankly sucked. Adding AJ Brown to the mix should be beneficial, even if they still lean on the run as much.

[BlueMeanies]

19 hours ago, lolcopter said:

Say what you will about his passing ability, but that receiving group quite frankly sucked. Adding AJ Brown to the mix should be beneficial, even if they still lean on the run as much.

Devonta Smith and Goedert are premiere talents.  I love running QBs in Fantasy more than anyone, but despite the overall Fantasy production, Hurts was average at best passing.the ball. If the Eagles get off to a bad start, I think they'll turn to Minshew, and that will help AJ, Devonta, and Goedert.  IMO Hurts needs to "figure it out" this year, which he can.  But if he doesn't, it's Minshew time.

[lolcopter]

Weird, it deleted our last two posts because of that PHP error

Anyway, Goedert has never finished as a top 5 fantasy TE. Smith is an undersized WR, who while a good player, is not capable of breaking a game himself like Brown. Hurts has his issues, no doubt, but outside of those two guys last season he had a laundry list of sub-6' nobodies who will soon be out of the league.

[IlliniGuy76]

On 4/30/2022 at 7:42 AM, lolcopter said:

Say what you will about his passing ability, but that receiving group quite frankly sucked. Adding AJ Brown to the mix should be beneficial, even if they still lean on the run as much.

Top flight receivers, average receivers, middle of the road that wouldn't change Hurt's inability to read defenses & be able to deliver the football... consistently.  

[USWAY]

It'll be interesting because Brown is a different type of receiver. The kind of guy you can throw it up to and give him a chance. I think Hurts really lacked that option last year. Watching as an Eagles fan, the one annoying thing about him is his reluctance to throw intermediate passes, 10-20 yards over the middle. I think part of that is he's still a developing passer and I don't think timing and rhythm "Brady" type throws are in his wheelhouse yet. But also I'm not sure how much he trusted his finesse type guys he had to win there. (Smith & Watkins) Almost like he's scared of all the congestion. When Goedert got healthy you saw he was getting more comfortable there.

A.J. owns that area of the field, contested catches, yac, you name it. He's a big target with a wide catch radius and I think it'll help out Hurts big time. 

[BlueMeanies]

On 5/1/2022 at 10:16 AM, lolcopter said:

Weird, it deleted our last two posts because of that PHP error

Yeah I didn't feel like recapping my points after this buggy forum deleted our posts.  Programmers use "database transactions".  Anyways...

I'll just say I don't think anyone can argue Hurts' passing has been mediocre, nor can anyone argue his dual threat ability gives him tremendous Fantasy upside.  AJ Brown obviously helps, but I don't think anyone who has watched the Eagles can definitely say the WRs were the biggest problem.  Regardless of AJ Brown, Jalen needs to make a "third year jump" mentally and physically.  He was learning Sirianni's offense last year, and Sirianni was pathetically slowly learning how to be a head coach and who his other play makers are.  IMO, progress in those areas are more important than the acquisition of AJ Brown.  It can happen, so I will draft Jalen's dual threat upside at the right ADP, but I won't reach for him.
 

[devaster]

On 5/1/2022 at 7:16 AM, lolcopter said:

Weird, it deleted our last two posts because of that PHP error

Anyway, Goedert has never finished as a top 5 fantasy TE. Smith is an undersized WR, who while a good player, is not capable of breaking a game himself like Brown. Hurts has his issues, no doubt, but outside of those two guys last season he had a laundry list of sub-6' nobodies who will soon be out of the league.

Goedert hasn't had much of an opportunity, but sure, I'll give you that. Smith, however, was frequently open last season and beating coverage and running crisp routes. Hurts just couldn't get the ball to him though. I don't know if adding AJ Brown changes much honestly. But it can't hurt. They will lean on the run and Hurts will likely cut his progressions short and take off like he always does. And when Hurts does throw, he is often throwing where the receiver is, rather than where the receiver will be with anticipation. He doesn't throw anyone open.

[Boudewijn]

On 4/29/2022 at 7:06 PM, MingusDew said:

He was a trash passer last year and was still a QB1.

Not just that, through week 1-11 he was the QB1.

In week 12 he injured his ankle against the Giants (and had a terrible 3 INT game), but until that point he was (in fantasy terms) even better than Josh Allen.

Through week 11 he had 2300 yds passing with 13/5 TD/INT, and 600+ yds running with 8 TD. Add AJ Brown and a recovered ankle, and who knows what could happen, trash passing and all.

[Stonej14]

17 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Not just that, through week 1-11 he was the QB1.

In week 12 he injured his ankle against the Giants (and had a terrible 3 INT game), but until that point he was (in fantasy terms) even better than Josh Allen.

Through week 11 he had 2300 yds passing with 13/5 TD/INT, and 600+ yds running with 8 TD. Add AJ Brown and a recovered ankle, and who knows what could happen, trash passing and all.

That was the most stressful QB1 I ever had. For 3Q of the game you had 6 fantasy points abs by the end of the game he ended with 25 points. 
 

Depends on how the coaches want to run the offense this year. Philly coaches made a clear switch to being a run first team midway thru the year and hurts took a hit but was still a top 8 QB. Maybe he takes a josh Allen like year 3 leap with a stud WR and he breaks fantasy football scoring 

[lolcopter]

On 5/6/2022 at 12:31 PM, Stonej14 said:

That was the most stressful QB1 I ever had. For 3Q of the game you had 6 fantasy points abs by the end of the game he ended with 25 points. 

He is the black Tim Tebow, that much has been established

[owenmills]

On 5/6/2022 at 2:11 PM, Boudewijn said:

Not just that, through week 1-11 he was the QB1.

In week 12 he injured his ankle against the Giants (and had a terrible 3 INT game), but until that point he was (in fantasy terms) even better than Josh Allen.

Through week 11 he had 2300 yds passing with 13/5 TD/INT, and 600+ yds running with 8 TD. Add AJ Brown and a recovered ankle, and who knows what could happen, trash passing and all.

The first half of the season he was amazing when they were letting him play hero ball and rack up obscene garbage time stats. He was trash in real life and I stressed every week he wouldn't make it to garbage time though. The stress was mostly because I had him in a 2QB league with no viable backup option.

His fantasy output dropped in the second half when they neutered him and the team coincidentally started playing better and winning which I think is how it will go in 2022. I think that was coming whether he hurt his ankle or not. He'll still be a good fantasy QB but not on the cheat code QB1 level he was the first 2 months of 2021

[GottaGetTheWin]

great fantasy qb....terrible real one

[BGDDYKWL]

I think because there's still so much skepticism in terms of his real life ability he could still end up being a real steal. 

[FinsUp24]

On 5/13/2022 at 10:14 PM, GottaGetTheWin said:

great fantasy qb....terrible real one

Except he’s really not THAT terrible in real life. I feel like this narrative is a bit overdone. He just struggles to read defenses right now, which throws off his timing, which makes him look abysmal at times. This is not unusual for a young QB. He’s a pretty cerebral player, so I expect some improvement there (watch out if he takes a big leap in this department). Other than that, he’s actually a pretty good real life QB. Led the league in QBR for a span of like 5 weeks last year. For anyone that watched eagles games, you know how many dropped passes there were and a pretty crazy amount of big plays and TDs were called back due to penalties. Still, a 26/11 TD:Turnover ratio is pretty incredible for a first year starter. Now he has an elite WR1 and this will be his first time returning to the same coach/system since high school. I’m expecting fireworks this year. 

[devaster]

1 hour ago, FinsUp24 said:

Except he’s really not THAT terrible in real life. I feel like this narrative is a bit overdone. He just struggles to read defenses right now, which throws off his timing, which makes him look abysmal at times. This is not unusual for a young QB. He’s a pretty cerebral player, so I expect some improvement there (watch out if he takes a big leap in this department). Other than that, he’s actually a pretty good real life QB. Led the league in QBR for a span of like 5 weeks last year. For anyone that watched eagles games, you know how many dropped passes there were and a pretty crazy amount of big plays and TDs were called back due to penalties. Still, a 26/11 TD:Turnover ratio is pretty incredible for a first year starter. Now he has an elite WR1 and this will be his first time returning to the same coach/system since high school. I’m expecting fireworks this year. 

He has beaten two teams with winning records. And those teams were QB'd by nobodies. The hype train is going a bit crazy with the Eagles winning the off-season and Hurts right now.

[allrise24]

On 5/25/2022 at 12:31 PM, devaster said:

He has beaten two teams with winning records. And those teams were QB'd by nobodies. The hype train is going a bit crazy with the Eagles winning the off-season and Hurts right now.

Winning games isn’t relevant to fantasy, if he puts up 200 passing yards and 80 rushing yards with 2 tds in a win or loss it all counts the same doesn’t it? 

[Big Nate]

20 minutes ago, allrise24 said:

Winning games isn’t relevant to fantasy, if he puts up 200 passing yards and 80 rushing yards with 2 tds in a win or loss it all counts the same doesn’t it? 

This is the key. In Fantasy he has the potential/ceiling to finish top 5QB overall if he starts the whole season. In redraft I'd love to grab Hurts as my QB BUT I would ensure I have a back-up or be aware of needing to grab a QB off waivers if something happens and PHI starts losing. If Hurts can keep winning games he will keep his job. Adding AJB definitely helps Hurts and this offense has potential to score TDs. It all comes down to how Hurts plays. If Hurts can't win games and can't execute the passing offense he will be replaced.

Will Hurts elevate his game and be the long term starter or does PHI eventually move on?  If Hurts can't make it happen and PHI struggles when do/would they move on from Hurts? If I draft Hurts I will ensure I monitor things closely and if its going south be prepared to adjust and pick up a second QB. Having said that Hurts has lots of weapons now and this offense should improve.

[kp96]

36 minutes ago, allrise24 said:

Winning games isn’t relevant to fantasy, if he puts up 200 passing yards and 80 rushing yards with 2 tds in a win or loss it all counts the same doesn’t it? 

I agree mostly but you also have to worry about him being benched if they lose too many games.

[kp96]

IMO the draft strategy with him is to get him somewhere around 8 to 10th round if you can, and pair him with a solid, consistent QB (like Derek Carr) that won't kill you.  You get the upside and if he doesn't pan out, you can start the other guy and hope you made good picks earlier.  7th round or earlier is too early for him so let someone else get him.