Kadarius Toney 2022 Outlook

[JE7HorseGod]

8 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Can we stop pretending 'all or nothing' is the only way to win a championship?

If you can land a 1k yard receiver in the 10th round, that's absolutely a way to put your team in a winning position.

Also there are 15 rounds, not every single round needs to be all or nothing.  Sometimes you need reliable production you can count on, while your lotto tickets filter through, or to make it through an injury, or suspension, or bye week.

Whether or not Gallup is that guy, is a different story for a different thread.

Typically in my experience the best way to win a championship is to fall @$$ backwards into a free agent pickup that has an amazing December because some dude you drafted either sucked or got hurt and he single handedly carries you across the line.

[Whitecloud0101]

42 minutes ago, buzzkilloton said:

If you "do your research" you would know that Gallup is injured and nobody knows if hes going to be ready for week 1. There is a HUGE ADP diff between these two players they shouldnt be compared. This is why some posters are going as far as to "spit out coffee" when they see someone saying Gallup should go over Toney. If you seen this in a draft room right now you would be laughing as Gallup is falling to the late rounds it would be a TERRIBLE pick. 

Current ADP on underdog:

Toney ADP 77

Gallup ADP 133

 

very good point relative to adp 

77 a bit rich for me, but i believe in the talent

 

[kp96]

13 minutes ago, buzzkilloton said:

Again Gallup is injured,in alot of drafts Jaden Tolbert is going ahead of him as the Cowboys WR2! 

Gallup has been an 1,100 yard receiver for the Cowboys and people are taking the rookie who will be warming his seat until he's healthy over him?  What kind of site is this?

I do recognize the value in taking rankings from a gambling site, so that is a valid point.  What I quoted does make me very skeptical though.  Unless they know that Gallup won't be ready until midseason and that info hasn't been in the news, it makes zero sense to take Tolbert over Gallup.

[owenmills]

8 minutes ago, kp96 said:

Gallup has been an 1,100 yard receiver for the Cowboys and people are taking the rookie who will be warming his seat until he's healthy over him?  What kind of site is this?

I do recognize the value in taking rankings from a gambling site, so that is a valid point.  What I quoted does make me very skeptical though.  Unless they know that Gallup won't be ready until midseason and that info hasn't been in the news, it makes zero sense to take Tolbert over Gallup.

They paid Gallup a lot of money and he put up pretty good numbers as the 3rd option. Now as the 2nd option he should be very solid. People sleeping on him and chasing a rookie instead might regret it. I haven’t read anything that suggest his injury will force him to miss too many games.

Back to Toney. I didn’t think any of the Giants WRs looked good tonight. Golladay per the usual looked slow and dropped a slant on the 3 yard line. If Toney can get healthy and keep his head on straight he could demand a lot of targets in that offense 

[buzzkilloton]

2 minutes ago, kp96 said:

Gallup has been an 1,100 yard receiver for the Cowboys and people are taking the rookie who will be warming his seat until he's healthy over him?  What kind of site is this?

I do recognize the value in taking rankings from a gambling site, so that is a valid point.  What I quoted does make me very skeptical though.  Unless they know that Gallup won't be ready until midseason and that info hasn't been in the news, it makes zero sense to take Tolbert over Gallup.

In 2019 Gallup had 1100 yards. Last season Gallup had 35 445 and 2tds in 9 games then he tore his ACL. He was projected to miss 1-2games but we dont know how many yet. I mean he might return week 3-4 and be 90% of himself and be good as the season goes on but its never a sure thing. 

I could see him getting healthy and getting back to 2019 Gallup by midseason. There is also a world he doesnt play until week 4-5 and isnt 100% all season and falls behind a rookie Tolbert. Then you end up holding Gallup all season because you "drafted to stash" and in that time you could used the spot on other guys on the WW. 

 

[FFCollusion]

6 minutes ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

you mr collusion are the field general of these threads. i salute u.

 

2 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Typically in my experience the best way to win a championship is to fall @$$ backwards into a free agent pickup that has an amazing December because some dude you drafted either sucked or got hurt and he single handedly carries you across the line.

This is why I prefer to just draft a stud TE and QB early.  90% of the guys we're drooling over today, because of 'potential' and 'hype' and 'upside' or 'ceiling' or 'coach speak' will be off our teams long before we ever get to the playoffs.  Everyone loves Kupp and JT, and I'm sure they carried a lot of people TO the playoffs, but in reality it was the Amon Ra, Higgins, Penny, and Singletary pickups that won people their playoffs last year.  All of which were complete afterthoughts on draft day.

We spend 90% of our time preparing for the draft, but 90% of a championship, is in-season management in my opinion.  If I can leave the draft without having absolutely blown my season up before it starts, then I can focus on the future.  If you leave the draft, and don't have a strong core, you're no longer looking for the future, trying to build a championship team, you're stuck desperately chasing production that you need RIGHT NOW, and losing games until (if) you finally hit on a WW pick up.

In reality, this is why 'any strategy' can win you a championship, and it's one no one ever talks about.

Championship teams are built, by landing the in-season picks ups, that transform your team weakness.  But we never known who, or what position, that transformative player will be.  Waiting on QB can win you a championship... if Malik Willis turns into Lamar Jackson 2.0 and you snag him.  Waiting on TE can work, if Albert O turns into the next Gronk.  ZeroRB was an easy championship, if you landed Penny, Singletary, or CP84, Elijah.  ZeroWR was a championship strategy if you landed, Amon Ra, Higgins, maybe Renfrow.  But, if you draft 3 stud WRs... and the transformative player you pick up is a WR... the gain is minimal.

For me, this is usually what leads me back to ZeroRB so often.  Because, while I don't know where the season altering player of 2022 will come from, I know that RB has the highest turn over, of any position, which gives me the highest chance, that the player is a RB.  Give me an elite QB, TE, top WRs, and I'll spend 14 weeks searching for the RB that makes it all worthwhile.

[kp96]

5 minutes ago, buzzkilloton said:

In 2019 Gallup had 1100 yards. Last season Gallup had 35 445 and 2tds in 9 games then he tore his ACL. He was projected to miss 1-2games but we dont know how many yet. I mean he might return week 3-4 and be 90% of himself and be good as the season goes on but its never a sure thing. 

I could see him getting healthy and getting back to 2019 Gallup by midseason. There is also a world he doesnt play until week 4-5 and isnt 100% all season and falls behind a rookie Tolbert. Then you end up holding Gallup all season because you "drafted to stash" and in that time you could used the spot on other guys on the WW. 

 

Look -  I get it.  I'll just make this general point....when you get to the Gallup's and the Toney's in the draft, there are massive question marks.  With Gallup it's his health bc everything else is lining up great for him.  With Toney it's his QB, the offense, and yes...his health.  The dude had like 15 injuries last year.  In either case, there are good reasons why they aren't going as even a low end WR3.

I personally don't think it's ever crazy to take one lotto ticket over the other at that stage of the draft, regardless of their ADP.  But hey, if you go by your method and it contradicts my logic, more power to you.  I'm not gonna crap on your analysis and research.  It makes sense. 

Also...most importantly....I think I've spent way too much time debating Gallup vs. Toney.  WTF am I doing?  I could be watching a movie.

[buzzkilloton]

37 minutes ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

very good point relative to adp 

77 a bit rich for me, but i believe in the talent

 

He for sure has the talent hes a 20th overall pick he had some massive games as a rookie. The question is can he improve in his 2nd year and give us one of those massive 2nd year WR breakouts that were always searching for.  He has the talent will Jones be able to get him the ball and is he going to be the man or is it Kenny G. 

I think hes a boom/bust pick. I havent scooped him in my drafts yet. I seem to be a half round under on where he goes currently. I'll likely have to reach to get him because hes not a guy I want to miss out on completely this season.

[kp96]

25 minutes ago, owenmills said:

They paid Gallup a lot of money and he put up pretty good numbers as the 3rd option. Now as the 2nd option he should be very solid. People sleeping on him and chasing a rookie instead might regret it. I haven’t read anything that suggest his injury will force him to miss too many games.

I think the Tolbert rise has a lot more to do with James Washington being out than Gallup actually.  When Gallup gets back, Tolbert will still have a spot as the 3rd WR and who knows, maybe he can shine.

As for Toney, I find it amusing that Toney is one of my favorite sleepers yet I'm arguing against him.  Agree - if talent rises to the top then he could be a weekly starter.  Kid needs to make sure he keeps his head on straight though...the offseason stuff was no bueno.

[Pastor3]

in udder newz, Daboll needs to walk away from the effin' buffet tables - portly bast is gonna make KoolAid look like Dungy in comparision ...

 

[DerrickHenrysCleats]

Oooozing with talent but has the mental capacity of Antonio brown with the hamstrings of Mike evans.

[Pastor3]

14 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Oooozing with talent but has the mental capacity of Antonio brown with the hamstrings of Mike evans.

... and the groin of Rashaad Penny 😆

[DerrickHenrysCleats]

Just now, Pastor3 said:

... and the groin of Rashaad Penny 😆

And the rap skills of Leveon bell…

 

 

[Whitecloud0101]

2 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Oooozing with talent but has the mental capacity of Antonio brown with the hamstrings of Mike evans.

accurate 

 

[Pastor3]

Daboll, in between trips to WaWa & Taco Bell, announced that the kid will not be practicing at all this coming week. 

yeahyeah "LOLZ, IT'S ONLY AUGUST 15TH, I'LL WORRY IN 3 WEEKS, LOLZZZ!!!1!!!1!"

sure, i feel that ^ 

but COTdam ... i guess the upshot is that it will likely push his adp down.

so much to love about the talent and dawg demeanor on the field - but this story just has that foreboding "ain't gonna end well" air swirling about. 

really wanted a piece this year. 

[DerrickHenrysCleats]

1 hour ago, Pastor3 said:

Daboll, in between trips to WaWa & Taco Bell, announced that the kid will not be practicing at all this coming week. 

yeahyeah "LOLZ, IT'S ONLY AUGUST 15TH, I'LL WORRY IN 3 WEEKS, LOLZZZ!!!1!!!1!"

sure, i feel that ^ 

but COTdam ... i guess the upshot is that it will likely push his adp down.

so much to love about the talent and dawg demeanor on the field - but this story just has that foreboding "ain't gonna end well" air swirling about. 

really wanted a piece this year. 

I need this chump to be healthy this year.

 

extreme talent and I can’t get a bag of donuts for him because he is a head case and softer than charmin.

 

🤡show

[Spyplane]

5 hours ago, Pastor3 said:

but COTdam ... i guess the upshot is that it will likely push his adp down.

Injuries, injuries, injuries, then a new coach, then trade threats, good competition gets added and now more injuries. His ADP should be down. He's looking like a Will Fuller type player when it comes to the mix of impact and durability. Just a big tease.

[dudewithabadcat]

Does not look good for Toney so far this year, and we haven not even started.  This is looking like an extension of all the issues he had in 2021.  I'd love to have him rostered when I get proven wrong but there is no way I want to pay this much for him. 

[Footballguy99]

Opportunity is king and Toney is going to get a lot of it. Obviously he has to remain healthy but with such a huge role for the taking and such electrifying talent, he’s a great value around pick 100 in the few leagues I’ve taken him. 

[owenmills]

I don't see how this guy doesn't have a good year if he stays healthy. How big is the question but I think he's got big upside. The staying healthy part is really the issue, but supposedly he's back doing individual drills and hopefully will return to full practice again soon.

[CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast]

1. The offseason trade drama was a non story a local clickbait “journalist” drummed up because Toney wasn’t at voluntary OTAs to start … it was excused as he was recovering from a minor knee op this offseason. He was also in town, in the facility, for several days before it became public and he’s drawn nothing but praise from the HC and OC.

2. The HC (and OC) are not only featuring him as the top option in this passing game, but have approached him about adding additional positional responsibility (RB, wildcat QB, WR). 

3. Toney was never being shopped, was never being traded, and is going to be option 1B in this offense behind Barkley.

He’s also back practicing full speed they are being beyond cautious with him.

[yossarian]

1 hour ago, Footballguy99 said:

Opportunity is king and Toney is going to get a lot of it. Obviously he has to remain healthy .....

1 hour ago, owenmills said:

I don't see how this guy doesn't have a good year if he stays healthy. ...

He won't. He had a grocery list of injuries last season and he's already been injured this preseason and now they're treating him like he's a 10 year veteran and wrapping him in bubble wrap. He's talented as all heck but he can't stay on the field and now he's not getting any practice reps in a totally new offense under a totally new coaching regime. 

Edited August 22 by yossarian

[Footballguy99]

16 minutes ago, yossarian said:

He won't. He had a grocery list of injuries last season and he's already been injured this preseason and now they're treating him like he's a 10 year veteran and wrapping him in bubble wrap. He's talented as all heck but he can't stay on the field and now he's not getting any practice reps in a totally new offense under a totally new coaching regime. 

Any guy can get injured at any time. And his recent ailment is being treated with special precaution to ensure he’s ready to begin the season. Toney is absolutely electric. He’s one of the most sensational talents I’ve ever seen. He’s a bet I’m taking all day around 100.

[Fried Pork Grind]

On 8/15/2022 at 2:53 AM, Pastor3 said:

Daboll, in between trips to WaWa & Taco Bell, announced that the kid will not be practicing at all this coming week. 

yeahyeah "LOLZ, IT'S ONLY AUGUST 15TH, I'LL WORRY IN 3 WEEKS, LOLZZZ!!!1!!!1!"

sure, i feel that ^ 

but COTdam ... i guess the upshot is that it will likely push his adp down.

so much to love about the talent and dawg demeanor on the field - but this story just has that foreboding "ain't gonna end well" air swirling about. 

really wanted a piece this year. 

Cooked Diggs. 

Toney is the type of guy that if you just watch him on every play you will wonder how he's not putting up 90 catches for 1200 yards. 

[CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast]

2 minutes ago, Fried Pork Grind said:

Cooked Diggs. 

Toney is the type of guy that if you just watch him on every play you will wonder how he's not putting up 90 catches for 1200 yards. 

That’s exactly what he’s capable of posting this year … with some rushing yards/TDs

(people forget/don’t realize in his breakout game vs DAL he was close to both a receiving and rushing TD as well)

This new regime is making him the focal point of the passing game. Golladay will be off the team as soon as the cap allows, as will Shepard. The Robinson selection was because of Shepard’s short term / long term outlook as well the fact Golladay/Shepard/Slayton will be off the team this time next year (Slayton a cut candidate this year)

Get Toney on your fantasy teams. You can also mitigate the “risk” with a late round handcuff of Wandale Robinson. Golladay is an afterthought in this offense and losing reps/targets to Collin Johnson. 
 

Barkley/Toney, Robinson … Golladay. That is the hierarchy in this new offense.