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Kadarius Toney 2022 Outlook


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2 hours ago, allrise24 said:

I’m betting on the first round pick going into year 2 which recently has been the biggest statistical jump for wide receivers who already has rapport with the qb. W

Feel free to back that up with some data.

Here are the results from the 2020 draft though:

image.png.d118887b7e37c910c0e53779d3ca2690.png

the-big.gif

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4 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Feel free to back that up with some data.

Here are the results from the 2020 draft though:

image.png.d118887b7e37c910c0e53779d3ca2690.png

the-big.gif

Ruggs doesn’t count for obvious reasons

jeudy missed 6+ games 

reagor was a flat out bust

aiyuk was in the dog house and didn’t play a full season

but for the two WRs who were talented and  played  full seasons you see the increase in production. 
 

also i got the info from JJ Zacharasian’s podcast and no one collects more data than him

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12 hours ago, affliction said:

For me a lot hinges on how much time Sterling misses 

https://www.draftsharks.com/fantasy/injury-history/sterling-shepard/7488

Injury History

Date League Injury Details
Nov 1, 2014 Non-NFL Inguinal Groin Strain Grade 2
Shepard
 suffered a groin injury against Iowa State and missed the next game. He played through it the rest of the way, with snaps limited each of the next 3 weeks.
Nov 7, 2013 Non-NFL Head Cranial Concussion Grade 1
Shepard
 missed 1 game after suffering a concussion. ( 
Shepard
 also reportedly sustained 2 concussions in high school.)
Oct 8, 2017 NFL Pedal Ankle Sprain Grade 2
Shepard
 sprained his right ankle in the Week 5 loss to the Chargers. He missed 2 more games before returning after the Week 8 bye.
Nov 18, 2017 NFL Head Cranial Migraine
Shepard
 missed 2 games while dealing with migraines that arose during the week.
Dec 3, 2017 NFL Thigh Hamstring Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1
Shepard
 missed some practice time with a hamstring issue after the Week 13 loss at Oakland, but he played through it in Week 14.
Dec 24, 2017 NFL Cervical Neck Strain
Shepard
 hurt his neck in the Week 16 loss at Arizona and missed the season finale.
Aug 2, 2017 NFL Pedal Ankle Sprain Grade 2
Shepard
 sprained his right ankle in a training-camp practice. He missed the 1st preseason game.
Sep 8, 2019 NFL Head Cranial Concussion Grade 1 Suffered a concussion against the Giants with 9:20 remaining in the third quarter.
Oct 6, 2019 NFL Head Cranial Concussion Grade 3 He was sidelined for a couple of weeks with a concussion as the head injury comes just a few weeks after 
Shepard
 suffered a concussion in the season opener
Sep 20, 2020 NFL Pedal Toe Turf Toe
Shepard
 suffered a turf toe injury during Week 2's loss to the Bears.
Sep 26, 2021 NFL Thigh Hamstring Strain Grade 2
Shepard
 suffered a hamstring injury in Week 3's game against the Falcons. He missed two games
Oct 21, 2021 NFL Thigh Hamstring Strain Grade 2
Shepard
 missed Week 7's game against Carolina due to a hamstring injury.
Nov 1, 2021 NFL Leg Quad Strain
Shepard
 suffered a quad injury in Week 8's game at Kansas. He missed four games
Dec 19, 2021 NFL Pedal Achilles Tear Grade 3
Shepard
 suffered a torn Achilles' during Week 15's loss to the Cowboys. He's done for the 2021 season.
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On 7/9/2022 at 5:45 PM, JE7HorseGod said:

suffered a torn Achilles' during Week 15's loss to the Cowboys. He's done for the 2021 season.

This is the most relevant I think. The concussions and migraines he survived (let's hope we never find out about him having CTE), the ankle/hamstring/quads are behind him. This Achilles though... WRs can overcome that, but He isn't ready yet today, and it's also not as if his 2021 campaign was amazing before that.

TL/DR: I'm not really counting Shepard. I think Toney is a bigger threat to Toney than Shep.

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  • 5 weeks later...

I think he's solid value at his ADP(WR45), although I'm not liking he already has a gimpy knee. Probably minor but I hate drafting guys who are already banged up in the preseason. Then again I did draft Swift last year...

Runs mostly shorter routes but he's a YAC machine. He doesn't get a lot of end zone targets(maybe he gets more when they realize Golladay sucks?) but could get a ton of overall targets this season as the Giants potential WR1. Former first round pick entering his year 2 season so he's at a prime launch point for a fantasy breakout.

Edited by owenmills
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13 hours ago, owenmills said:

I think he's solid value at his ADP(WR45), although I'm not liking he already has a gimpy knee. Probably minor but I hate drafting guys who are already banged up in the preseason. Then again I did draft Swift last year...

Runs mostly shorter routes but he's a YAC machine. He doesn't get a lot of end zone targets(maybe he gets more when they realize Golladay sucks?) but could get a ton of overall targets this season as the Giants potential WR1. Former first round pick entering his year 2 season so he's at a prime launch point for a fantasy breakout.

I think the guy was only healthy for 4 games last year. He’s a stud tho for sure but he seems like he likes to play football and not in love with it. They draft a player who almost identical to his skill set then he Didn’t show up for OTAs with a. New coaching regime and new offense and a QB you only played 3 or 4 games with.. meanwhile wondale has been a bright spot at camp… He’s not draftable imo 

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I have a pretty high exposure to Toney but I do feel he will be boom or bust. He can be a league winner and where he is going you can risk it. My main concern is him staying healthy. Golladay has looked washed so Toney can get a sizeable target share. 

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He’s an interesting pick within the WRs in his range. Personally, I rather have guys like Skyy Moore and Gallup. So he’d probably need to drop a bit.

He has a chance to be one of the most electric players in the game so that’s always an intrigue. That being said, horrendous offense + head case + one of the most injury prone players I’ve seen gives me pause.

League winning potential for sure though. If the dude came out and dropped 120/1300/8 or something I’d be like “yeah that makes sense” at the end of the year. 

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The upside is probably worry a flyer but this offense really concerns me, even more so than potential injury. I feel like Jones has been teetering and it's been steadily leaning in the wrong direction. 

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9 hours ago, Gohawks said:

He’s an interesting pick within the WRs in his range. Personally, I rather have guys like Skyy Moore and Gallup. So he’d probably need to drop a bit.

He has a chance to be one of the most electric players in the game so that’s always an intrigue. That being said, horrendous offense + head case + one of the most injury prone players I’ve seen gives me pause.

League winning potential for sure though. If the dude came out and dropped 120/1300/8 or something I’d be like “yeah that makes sense” at the end of the year. 

gallup? i almost spit up my coffee 

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10 minutes ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

gallup? i almost spit up my coffee 

Dak is a 4,800/35 type of QB.

Tell me where you see those yards going? Let's say Lamb has a great season and drops 1,400 yards. Let's say Pollard combine for another 800. You can throw in another 900 for TEs.

That leaves 1,700 yards. Where exactly do you see most of these going? A 3rd round rookie? James Washington? Gallup is going to be a 1,000 yard WR pace wise without a doubt. He also might only miss a game or so now.

That also assumes Lamb is THAT guy because we really don't know what to expect from him as a starter. 

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

Dak is a 4,800/35 type of QB.

Tell me where you see those yards going? Let's say Lamb has a great season and drops 1,400 yards. Let's say Pollard combine for another 800. You can throw in another 900 for TEs.

That leaves 1,700 yards. Where exactly do you see most of these going? A 3rd round rookie? James Washington? Gallup is going to be a 1,000 yard WR pace wise without a doubt. He also might only miss a game or so now.

That also assumes Lamb is THAT guy because we really don't know what to expect from him as a starter. 

Yeah, I dunno what's so funny about taking Gallup over Toney, if you do your research.  Toney has upside for sure but Gallup is in by FAR the better situation as the #2 with Amari gone.

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12 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

The upside is probably worry a flyer but this offense really concerns me, even more so than potential injury. I feel like Jones has been teetering and it's been steadily leaning in the wrong direction. 

Absolutely baffling to me they haven’t moved on from Daniel Jones.

It’s almost as if they are content to tank.

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1 hour ago, kp96 said:

Yeah, I dunno what's so funny about taking Gallup over Toney, if you do your research.  Toney has upside for sure but Gallup is in by FAR the better situation as the #2 with Amari gone.

virtually 0 upside with MG. even if he wasn’t coming off a shredded knee, i wouldn’t be optimistic. KT has his own injury history and might be a headcase, but he has upside. his metrics are pretty impressive. I think we all play the game to win right? would anyone be surprised if KT goes for 90, 1200, 8? —i surely wouldn’t be. if your targeting a mike gallup kinda guy i could think of several others i’d rather draft including mr J tolbert…

Edited by Whitecloud0101
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1 hour ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

would anyone be surprised if KT goes for 90, 1200, 8? —i surely wouldn’t be

The highest I've seen KT ranked on any site is WR42, which is a mid to low end WR4.  He had 420 yards last year.  You would be the only person not surprised by 90/1200/8.

But honestly?  That's fine.  You have a hard on for him, and that's totally cool.  All I was trying to say is that taking Gallup over him isn't ridiculous.

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13 minutes ago, kp96 said:

The highest I've seen KT ranked on any site is WR42, which is a mid to low end WR4.  He had 420 yards last year.  You would be the only person not surprised by 90/1200/8.

But honestly?  That's fine.  You have a hard on for him, and that's totally cool.  All I was trying to say is that taking Gallup over him isn't ridiculous.

fair enough…

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19 minutes ago, Pastor3 said:

not for nuttin', but ...

Golladay looking like absolute dog dirt on Daboll's first evah Jints exhibition drive - ungood. 

🤢

 

The man is toast. 
 

If our boy wasn’t a basket case and his medical record didn’t look like an encyclopedia then this wouldn’t even be a debate. Toney should be the alpha in this offense (whether that’s worth anything) if he can get out of his own way. 

Edited by MingusDew
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4 hours ago, kp96 said:

Yeah, I dunno what's so funny about taking Gallup over Toney, if you do your research.  Toney has upside for sure but Gallup is in by FAR the better situation as the #2 with Amari gone.

If you "do your research" you would know that Gallup is injured and nobody knows if hes going to be ready for week 1. There is a HUGE ADP diff between these two players they shouldnt be compared. This is why some posters are going as far as to "spit out coffee" when they see someone saying Gallup should go over Toney. If you seen this in a draft room right now you would be laughing as Gallup is falling to the late rounds it would be a TERRIBLE pick. 

Current ADP on underdog:

Toney ADP 77

Gallup ADP 133

 

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8 minutes ago, buzzkilloton said:

If you "do your research" you would know that Gallup is injured and nobody knows if hes going to be ready for week 1. There is a HUGE ADP diff between these two players they shouldnt be compared. This is why some posters are going as far as to "spit out coffee" when they see someone saying Gallup should go over Toney. If you seen this in a draft room right now you would be laughing as Gallup is falling to the late rounds it would be a TERRIBLE pick. 

Current ADP on underdog:

Toney ADP 77

Gallup ADP 133

 

No site....none....has Toney as better than a WR4.  Gallup is what, a WR5?  They're both flyers.  And you think it's "spit out coffee" worthy of picking one over the other?  OK.

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3 hours ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

virtually 0 upside with MG. even if he wasn’t coming off a shredded knee, i wouldn’t be optimistic. KT has his own injury history and might be a headcase, but he has upside. his metrics are pretty impressive. I think we all play the game to win right? would anyone be surprised if KT goes for 90, 1200, 8? —i surely wouldn’t be. if your targeting a mike gallup kinda guy i could think of several others i’d rather draft including mr J tolbert…

Can we stop pretending 'all or nothing' is the only way to win a championship?

If you can land a 1k yard receiver in the 10th round, that's absolutely a way to put your team in a winning position.

Also there are 15 rounds, not every single round needs to be all or nothing.  Sometimes you need reliable production you can count on, while your lotto tickets filter through, or to make it through an injury, or suspension, or bye week.

Whether or not Gallup is that guy, is a different story for a different thread.

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16 minutes ago, kp96 said:

No site....none....has Toney as better than a WR4.  Gallup is what, a WR5?  They're both flyers.  And you think it's "spit out coffee" worthy of picking one over the other?  OK.

I'm doing real money drafts everyday and seeing where players are going. There is a MASSIVE diff between where their being picked. If you're using "rankings sites" rather then ADP data from actual drafters paying money to draft in 2022 you're doing it wrong. 


 

https://www.4for4.com/underdog-adp

https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/football

Look at NFC over the past week of drafts Toney 75 and Gallup 129. These guys arent even in comparison and havent been for multiple weeks. Again Gallup is injured,in alot of drafts Jaden Tolbert is going ahead of him as the Cowboys WR2! 

Edit-

For me personally I make my own rankings and then look at ADP to know where I should target said players. That said if everyone paying money to draft has Gallup 50+ spots under Toney its pretty obv there not being considered in the same ball park by the fantasy community. 

Edited by buzzkilloton
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5 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Can we stop pretending 'all or nothing' is the only way to win a championship?

If you can land a 1k yard receiver in the 10th round, that's absolutely a way to put your team in a winning position.

Also there are 15 rounds, not every single round needs to be all or nothing.  Sometimes you need reliable production you can count on, while your lotto tickets filter through, or to make it through an injury, or suspension, or bye week.

Whether or not Gallup is that guy, is a different story for a different thread.

you mr collusion are the field general of these threads. i salute u.

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