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2022-23 1st / 2nd Round


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probably a waste of time with trades/draft/fa signings but im bored.
more h2h centered

 

1. Joker- not much to say
2. Kd- same as joker. best basketball player, inj concerns not scaring me away.
3. Harden- lets see if he lost a step in the playoffs or if his hammy has been dinged up. 5 overall 8 cat on 41% fg (44% fg is his lowest fg% the last 5 years. and on only 22 pts)
4. Giannis- 9 overall with stupid 32/12/5.5  1.3 steal, 1.2 blks, 1 three, 58/72 last 2 months. if you like punt ft or the punt ft options for rds 2/3 you can make a case for 1.2  
5. Embiid - still dont trust him but doesnt seem logical and dont have any stats to back up having embiid lower.
6. KAT- lesser embiid. small dip in most cats but rock solid and if he gets his efficiency back up to 54/86 could jump up over a couple guys.
7. Curry- decline? maybe but im not passing on him mid 1st. 6 overall 8/9 cat on sub par fg%.
8 Luka- pop corn numbers. with long stretches of 30/10/10 4 threes and a steal 47% fg. too high for roto with that ft drag but that could get fixed. not that big of a deal in h2h %'s are a crap shoot week to week.
9. Murray- want to put him over luka and curry but just cant do it. 2 steals vs 1.5 steals would make some difference in his value this year. he could be the new prime westbrook. and easily jump into top 3 overall next year.
10. Tatum- bias i think tatums better than trae. increased play making and efficiency is good to see. 50/87 last 2 months on 30/7/5, 3.5 threes 1 steal 2.5 t/o. roto stud
11. dame- healthy dame/team could bump him down. not willing to do that yet to a 1st rder for 4/5 last seasons.
12. Trae- not a fan and dont think 47% fg is sustainable or projectable. no stats to back it up like fg% at the rim/mid range not going to get that deep into it with so much time left until next draft. dont like the 1 combined stocks or potential 0.9 steals. not how i build my teams. the jump back up to 3+ threes is good sign. 30/10 is always valuable just looking like pg is super deep.
13/14 AD/Irving- swing for the fences as you got a pretty steep hill to climb. pair one with lamelo/trae would be my start at the turn. top 5 production with inj risk is worth it as it will be hard to beat top top 3 pick teams that have reasonale healthy drafts.
15. Lamelo - usage could go up. only 28 this  year. probably not that likely with rozier still there. could take another jump in year 3.
16 pg- kawhi and health will make a difference on rank
17 kawhi- health/team/b2b will make a difference. 4 overall last 2 seasons too good to pass up
18. booker- 1st rd without cp3 probably should have him over kawhi but i dont like booker and 22 overall 8 cat sandwiched between hali and garland is telling fantasy wise
19. lbj- ft% came back down to earth. age/team are concerns but  4 overall on the year and top 20 last 3 months is solid.
20. shai- 12/15 overall 8/9 cat last 3 months. 3 ball was awful early but showed 1st rd sustained production for long stretch. inj/tank is possible just make sure ur playoffs are early. bias shai is one of my favorite players
21. don - 1st rd production for majority of the season then fell off. utah/ gobert situation looks like its going south pending playoffs.
22 hali- fantasy friendly game not much to say doesnt need crazy volume to return value. 22 overall 9 cat on 18 usage ha.
23.garland- stud, sexton gone will seal this rank. allen/mobley keeps that floor nice and high.
24. jrue- solid 9 cat lines. stocks fg everything you want from early rd pick.

next (no order) beal, bam, siakum, cp3, fvv, butler, gobert, kristaps, JJJ, vuc, cade, mobly, ant

dont think i missed anyone. rob will, lavine, lonzo, myles, sabonis, didnt make it for me

you can see its guard/wing heavy. outside 1st rd bigs with top 5 upside it doesn't make sense to chase big man stats imo. especially in 1 center leagues

Edited by colepenhagen
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Everything good except SGA who you admitted you're biased for and FVV. There's absolutely no way FVV should be lower than top 18 in any format at this point. Hes been top 15 in back-to-back years, and he was a 1st round guy for the majority of the season. He's improved his rank every single season of his career.

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9 hours ago, jay_00 said:

Everything good except SGA who you admitted you're biased for and FVV. There's absolutely no way FVV should be lower than top 18 in any format at this point. Hes been top 15 in back-to-back years, and he was a 1st round guy for the majority of the season. He's improved his rank every single season of his career.

there are a couple really strong reasons fvv has no business higher for me. and fvv was barely a 3rd rd (36 overall )the last 3 months (31 games)

1. hes just not that good. 35% fg last 2 months. 40% on the year, 39% last year.

2. undersized, inj prone, or atleast has shown he has played, 62. 55, 54, gp last 3 seasons, and  his super high mins the last couple seasons dont encourage me that the pattern will change.

3. his stat profile isnt ideal for a top 20-25 pick. he will be lucky to avg 20 pts especially with how deep and good tor is, assuming they still keep, og, siakam, trent, along with increased usage for scottie b. fvv fantasy value is tied to those 4 threes, and 1.7steals and 0.6 blks. he doesnt have that 9 dime upside and/or 25+ pt upside that those other pg have above him. or jrue whos just a better fantasy version of fvv. plus they are just better basketball players.

as for sga the only argument that you can make is shutdown risk. talent and fantasy wise hes a clear top 25 pick. going from 27% 3pt% to 39% after inj shows some of his early season struggles. hes not a 40% 3pt shooter even though he was last year (42%) and had stretches this year but a solid 35-36% seems likely. hopefully okc gets a top3 pick, giddy learns how to shoot some more and poku doesnt turn into trash when hes playing with the starters and they might be able to compete some.

 

 

 

 

 

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54 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

there are a couple really strong reasons fvv has no business higher for me. and fvv was barely a 3rd rd (36 overall )the last 3 months (31 games)

1. hes just not that good. 35% fg last 2 months. 40% on the year, 39% last year.

2. undersized, inj prone, or atleast has shown he has played, 62. 55, 54, gp last 3 seasons, and  his super high mins the last couple seasons dont encourage me that the pattern will change.

3. his stat profile isnt ideal for a top 20-25 pick. he will be lucky to avg 20 pts especially with how deep and good tor is, assuming they still keep, og, siakam, trent, along with increased usage for scottie b. fvv fantasy value is tied to those 4 threes, and 1.7steals and 0.6 blks. he doesnt have that 9 dime upside and/or 25+ pt upside that those other pg have above him. or jrue whos just a better fantasy version of fvv. plus they are just better basketball players.

as for sga the only argument that you can make is shutdown risk. talent and fantasy wise hes a clear top 25 pick. going from 27% 3pt% to 39% after inj shows some of his early season struggles. hes not a 40% 3pt shooter even though he was last year (42%) and had stretches this year but a solid 35-36% seems likely. hopefully okc gets a top3 pick, giddy learns how to shoot some more and poku doesnt turn into trash when hes playing with the starters and they might be able to compete some.

 

 

 

 

 

Raptors homer here...

First, I disagree with "he's just not that good" statement.  FVV is really good (real life and fantasy)...   when he  plays

Second, I agree that FVV   should not be drafted in the top-20 next year.  Ha played more than 70 games once in his career, it is reasonable to assume that he will miss at least 10-15 games each year

Raptors to own for  next season are Pascal and Scottie. 

 

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Love the guy and he won me a roto chip but starting to feel like Towns is prob closer to a top 8-10 kind of guy with Edwards around rather than the consensus top-5 pick that he's typically been.  Yes he dropped a 60 piece but just has a few too many passenger games these days for me.  Was more of a top-15 guy in the last few months of the season.

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10 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

there are a couple really strong reasons fvv has no business higher for me. and fvv was barely a 3rd rd (36 overall )the last 3 months (31 games)

1. hes just not that good. 35% fg last 2 months. 40% on the year, 39% last year.

2. undersized, inj prone, or atleast has shown he has played, 62. 55, 54, gp last 3 seasons, and  his super high mins the last couple seasons dont encourage me that the pattern will change.

3. his stat profile isnt ideal for a top 20-25 pick. he will be lucky to avg 20 pts especially with how deep and good tor is, assuming they still keep, og, siakam, trent, along with increased usage for scottie b. fvv fantasy value is tied to those 4 threes, and 1.7steals and 0.6 blks. he doesnt have that 9 dime upside and/or 25+ pt upside that those other pg have above him. or jrue whos just a better fantasy version of fvv. plus they are just better basketball players.

as for sga the only argument that you can make is shutdown risk. talent and fantasy wise hes a clear top 25 pick. going from 27% 3pt% to 39% after inj shows some of his early season struggles. hes not a 40% 3pt shooter even though he was last year (42%) and had stretches this year but a solid 35-36% seems likely. hopefully okc gets a top3 pick, giddy learns how to shoot some more and poku doesnt turn into trash when hes playing with the starters and they might be able to compete some.

 

 

 

 

 

1. You're basing his last 2 month stat line off only 17 games. That's a small sample size, means nothing other than he had a bad month and missed multiple games during that stretch.

2. I understand he's an injury risk, that's the only good argument people can say about keeping him out of the top 20. BUT, how can you complain about him when SGA has missed 73 games in 2 seasons? Jeez, thats almost double FVV's missed games.

3. His value isn't just 3 cats like you claim. You are undermining what he does well. He also has just about a top 10 ast:to ratio, is a really good ft shooter (top 20 ft value), and is a solid rebounder for a PG. You can't just exclude those things.

He might not be great for h2h, but he's amazing for roto. However if you go punt fg% in h2h, FVV is 6th overall. Yup, SIXTH overall. He was 5 overall last year punting fg% as well. For roto his fg% is extremely easy to offset, so it's not that big of a concern. It really makes no sense to draft SGA over FVV.

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7 minutes ago, jay_00 said:

1. You're basing his last 2 month stat line off only 17 games. That's a small sample size, means nothing other than he had a bad month and missed multiple games during that stretch.

i clearly answered that in my  post showing you he was a fringe 3rd rd for the last 31 games and he should be nothing more than a 3rd option on his own team maybe 4th. scottie b and og are right there hell you could make a case for trent to get more shots than fvv.

2. I understand he's an injury risk, that's the only good argument people can say about keeping him out of the top 20. BUT, how can you complain about him when SGA has missed 73 games in 2 seasons? Jeez, thats almost double FVV's missed games.

id still trust sga to stay healthy over fvv who has been dinged up almost every year. sga had a sprained ankle and came back and was great. plantar fasciitis/tear last year. he has 82 and 70 g game seasons under his belt. fvv has never played 25 min a night and played over 65 games. hes 0/4.  shai also sat the last 10 games for a tank not inj so 66 gp with year if you really want to think about it purely as inj and not tank.

3. His value isn't just 3 cats like you claim. You are undermining what he does well. He also has just about a top 10 ast:to ratio, is a really good ft shooter (top 20 ft value), and is a solid rebounder for a PG. You can't just exclude those things.

never said that. go re read what you just quoted. its kinda implied that a player that returned 2nd rd value would contribute in more that 3 cats. (excluding turner/robwill)

his top cat are steals and threes which isnt ideal for a top 25 pick. and i expanded on that talking about his non 25 pt upside/ 9 dime upside.

He might not be great for h2h, but he's amazing for roto. However if you go punt fg% in h2h, FVV is 6th overall. Yup, SIXTH overall. He was 5 overall last year punting fg% as well. For roto his fg% is extremely easy to offset, so it's not that big of a concern. It really makes no sense to draft SGA over FVV. - (except i just gave you multiple reasons. from healthy to talent, to team, to stat profile, to

shai is better at basketball. he got a more fantasy friendly game, doesnt force any punt and has legit top 10-7 upside. you will be surprised how high those assist jump if he gets some shooters around him.  he avg 28+ pts for 3 months was has legit 1.7 steal 1 blk upside. i hope more people think like you so i can grab shai in the 3rd. its kind a easy to point to one players health, situation/usage declining and one player becoming and elite pg at the age of 23.

again so much of his value is tied to 4 threes and 1.7ish steals. honestly see gary trent if you want that. (ik, ik fvv offers ft% and dimes.)

it comes down to preference. you want to spend a 2nd rd pick on someone whos best cats are 3's and  steals over stats like pts, dimes, fg/ft anchor then all good.

 

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17 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

 

Again, you are literally hoping that SGA breaks out to the rank that FVV is ALREADY at. That's just poor drafting. You're also basing a strong majority of your argument on a 31 game 3 month stretch in which FVV had a bad month and missed around 15 games? That's also not smart.

Your other argument claiming building around a top 25 pick whose best stats are steals/threes (way more than that obviously) over ppg, fg/ft anchor, and asts isn't ideal and is also pretty weak. First off, FVV has way better ft% value. Secondly, SGA gets less asts and isn't even the best passer on his team anymore. Stop exaggerating/making stuff up. All SGA has over him is PPG and FG%. 

So based on that, an easy way to settle which cats are more important is only 5 people outside the top 24 that can get at least 2.4 threes and 1.5 steals. FIVE. Guess how many 22 + ppg scorers are outside the top 24? There are 9. Yup, almost double the number of high scorers, but hardly any good high 3s/steals guys in the top 100 after 2nd round. Plain and simple, points and fg% are easy to come by, but a combo of high 3s/steals are not. A good ast/to ratio is not. Heck steals alone is tough to come by outside the top 50 unless you get guys who suck in other cats.

Look, I don't give a damn who is better at basketball. I care about results, not hopes and dreams that you're aiming for. People been hoping for a prayer taking SGA 2nd round these last 2 years (I'm guessing you were one of those lol). This year it might not have hurt you much, but you would have had wayyyyy more value taking FVV both years, and you could have got him a few picks later as well in most leagues.

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21 minutes ago, jay_00 said:

Again, you are literally hoping that SGA breaks out to the rank that FVV is ALREADY at. That's just poor drafting. You're also basing a strong majority of your argument on a 31 game 3 month stretch in which FVV had a bad month and missed around 15 games? That's also not smart.

Your other argument claiming building around a top 25 pick whose best stats are steals/threes (way more than that obviously) over ppg, fg/ft anchor, and asts isn't ideal and is also pretty weak. First off, FVV has way better ft% value. Secondly, SGA gets less asts and isn't even the best passer on his team anymore. Stop exaggerating/making stuff up. All SGA has over him is PPG and FG%. 

So based on that, an easy way to settle which cats are more important is only 5 people outside the top 24 that can get at least 2.4 threes and 1.5 steals. FIVE. Guess how many 22 + ppg scorers are outside the top 24? There are 9. Yup, almost double the number of high scorers, but hardly any good high 3s/steals guys in the top 100 after 2nd round. Plain and simple, points and fg% are easy to come by, but a combo of high 3s/steals are not. A good ast/to ratio is not. Heck steals alone is tough to come by outside the top 50 unless you get guys who suck in other cats.

Look, I don't give a damn who is better at basketball. I care about results, not hopes and dreams that you're aiming for. People been hoping for a prayer taking SGA 2nd round these last 2 years (I'm guessing you were one of those lol). This year it might not have hurt you much, but you would have had wayyyyy more value taking FVV both years, and you could have got him a few picks later as well in most leagues.

past is past. projections and predicting what is going to happen is all that matters.

you sure love bring up rank and season long rank ha.

ur still ignoring who was peaking returning top 9 value the last 3 months vs who was a fringe 3rd rd so ur argument of value is not true in (h2h)

sga basically cared my team through h2h po.

sga will have more dimes and id say stocks will be a draw. 1.7 steals, 0.9 blks for shai after inj.

you keep chasing steals one of the most fluky stats out there in h2h. ill just leave this here for you and ur season long rank bias, ignoring fvv inj history, how fvv is going to get less touches/dimes with scottie b and the trend he is on. ill take the 23 year old franchise corner stone that has multiple ways to contribute and sustain fantasy value even if he isnt contributing to his full potential/ having a down year like shooting the 3 ball this  year.

 

image.thumb.png.f3502f8d1c0e6d6d37291fa7330c3628.png

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

past is past. projections and predicting what is going to happen is all that matters.

you sure love bring up rank and season long rank ha.

ur still ignoring who was peaking returning top 9 value the last 3 months vs who was a fringe 3rd rd so ur argument of value is not true in (h2h)

sga basically cared my team through h2h po.

sga will have more dimes and id say stocks will be a draw. 1.7 steals, 0.9 blks for shai after inj.

you keep chasing steals one of the most fluky stats out there in h2h. ill just leave this here for you and ur season long rank bias, ignoring fvv inj history, how fvv is going to get less touches/dimes with scottie b and the trend he is on. ill take the 23 year old franchise corner stone that has multiple ways to contribute and sustain fantasy value even if he isnt contributing to his full potential/ having a down year like shooting the 3 ball this  year.

 

image.thumb.png.f3502f8d1c0e6d6d37291fa7330c3628.png

 

 

 

The irony of you saying I love bringing up rank and the very next sentence you continue to brag about a 3 month rank in which FVV had a bad month and missed games to injury lol. 

The irony of you saying Barnes is going to effect FVV's asts somehow and completely ignore the fact that Giddey as a rookie got more assists than SGA. Somehow you believe he won't effect SGA like Barnes and his 3.5 asts will effect FVV, pure comedy lol. Need I remind you that even when Lowry was on the team that FVV still got the same asts total?

You say steals is one of the most fluky stats out there? FVV steals last 3 seasons : 1.7, 1.7, and 1.9. You're right, so fluky.

Then you post a pic of only 22 games that SGA played in a 3 month stretch out of a near possible 45 games, more comedy. Doncic clearly had 40 games played in that same stretch and even Mr. no show himself, Kyrie Irving played more games.

But ok, lets take his really small sample size of him being 9th overall over a 22 month stretch into account. Once again, you are chasing his absolute ceiling and hoping he does that for a full season when FVV is pretty much ALREADY there. He was top 12 for the ENTIRE year up until final month. I don't know how this is not sinking in for you, but ok then.

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I wouldn't draft FVV in 1-18 range, I think that 19-25 is the correct place.

But to suggest that Shai should be drafted before FVV is ridiculous

BBM per game rankings, 9 cat: FVV - 14th (65 games),  Shai 34th   (56 games)

total value rank: FVV - 21st,    Shai - 59th

Shai can provide value when he plays. With the current OKC roster it's big if Shai will play in the fantasy playoffs.  After all he missed fantasy playoffs for the last two years  (his last game this year was on March 21st, last year  it was on March 22).

Until OKC has roster that can challenge for 6-10th spot in the West  I am not looking at Shai in the first 2 rounds.

Best quality in fantasy basketball is availability

Edited by Gile Pile
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26 minutes ago, jay_00 said:

The irony of you saying I love bringing up rank and the very next sentence you continue to brag about a 3 month rank in which FVV had a bad month and missed games to injury lol. 

The irony of you saying Barnes is going to effect FVV's asts somehow and completely ignore the fact that Giddey as a rookie got more assists than SGA. Somehow you believe he won't effect SGA like Barnes and his 3.5 asts will effect FVV, pure comedy lol. Need I remind you that even when Lowry was on the team that FVV still got the same asts total?

You say steals is one of the most fluky stats out there? FVV steals last 3 seasons : 1.7, 1.7, and 1.9. You're right, so fluky.

Then you post a pic of only 22 games that SGA played in a 3 month stretch out of a near possible 45 games, more comedy. Doncic clearly had 40 games played in that same stretch and even Mr. no show himself, Kyrie Irving played more games.

But ok, lets take his really small sample size of him being 9th overall over a 22 month stretch into account. Once again, you are chasing his absolute ceiling and hoping he does that for a full season when FVV is pretty much ALREADY there. He was top 12 for the ENTIRE year up until final month. I don't know how this is not sinking in for you, but ok then.

smh you just dont get it. if you watched 1 okc game you would. sga dimes should be so much higher, and as is. it rivals fvv. he has the most/one of the most drives and passes on almost 50% of them.  giddy will do nothing but help. its all things not just a 22 sample size. kinda like how he avg 51/42/81 last year at 22 with no help, again showed that 50%fg upside this  year. he shows that he can get to the ft line 7 times a night another sign of an elite player.

how am i chasing his ceiling if his ceiling is top 10 overall when i have ranked 20?

shai played all three weeks h2h po for those that had early po for what its worth. you cant tell me shai will sit or be inj anymore than i can tell fvv will break and miss fantasy po

agree to disagree there are plenty of valid reason to have sga over fvv which you said, there were non. you might not agree but they are valid.

 

Edited by colepenhagen
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On 4/12/2022 at 3:36 AM, jay_00 said:

if you go punt fg% in h2h, FVV is 6th overall. Yup, SIXTH overall. He was 5 overall last year punting fg% as well.

Who cares maaaaaan

He misses a ton of games . A TON

EDIT: I won't be drafting either of them in top 20 for sure (FVV or SGA)

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18 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

smh you just dont get it. if you watched 1 okc game you would. sga dimes should be so much higher, and as is. it rivals fvv. he has the most/one of the most drives and passes on almost 50% of them.  giddy will do nothing but help. its all things not just a 22 sample size. kinda like how he avg 51/42/81 last year at 22 with no help, again showed that 50%fg upside this  year. he shows that he can get to the ft line 7 times a night another sign of an elite player.

how am i chasing his ceiling if his ceiling is top 10 overall when i have ranked 20?

shai played all three weeks h2h po for those that had early po for what its worth. you cant tell me shai will sit or be inj anymore than i can tell fvv will break and miss fantasy po

agree to disagree there are plenty of valid reason to have sga over fvv which you said, there were non. you might not agree but they are valid.

 

Look, I'm not gonna continue to debate this since I've refuted just about every argument you've had with stats, but it seems like you just completely ignore all logic I've presented to you.

One last thing I will bring up to you though is about assists. You seem so certain that SGA will get more asts than FVV, even with Giddey on his team. Giddey basically averaged 7 asts this season as a rookie and that number will certainly go up. So you somehow believe both Giddey and SGA will average 7 asts next season is what you're saying? Well over last 10+ years, 2 teammates averaging 7 asts has only happened twice and both cases the teammates were 1st ballot hall of famers.

Heck I'm sure you can go back 20 years and you won't see it. Hell, Lebron and Russ failed to do it this year. Or hell, you can lower it and check teammates averaging 6.5 asts. It almost never happens and the ones that actually achieved this feat were 1st ballot hall of famers on championship contending teams (Lowry and FVV BARELY achieved 6.5 couple years ago). So it's really, EXTREMELY unlikely they both get 7 asts next season, so that means SGA will not get more assists than FVV. Best case scenario is he matches him, which I doubt he will.

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On 4/12/2022 at 8:50 PM, colepenhagen said:

smh you just dont get it. if you watched 1 okc game you would. sga dimes should be so much higher, and as is. it rivals fvv. he has the most/one of the most drives and passes on almost 50% of them.  giddy will do nothing but help. its all things not just a 22 sample size. kinda like how he avg 51/42/81 last year at 22 with no help, again showed that 50%fg upside this  year. he shows that he can get to the ft line 7 times a night another sign of an elite player.

how am i chasing his ceiling if his ceiling is top 10 overall when i have ranked 20?

shai played all three weeks h2h po for those that had early po for what its worth. you cant tell me shai will sit or be inj anymore than i can tell fvv will break and miss fantasy po

agree to disagree there are plenty of valid reason to have sga over fvv which you said, there were non. you might not agree but they are valid.

 

There's a much higher risk in SGA to miss the playoffs due to tank shutdown. Raptors will likely be once again competing till the end. I would rather roll with FVV but of course, that also depends on the price. If FVV costs $40+ and SGA can be had for $25ish, then it may be worth rolling the dice on him. 

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On 4/12/2022 at 6:50 PM, colepenhagen said:

shai played all three weeks h2h po for those that had early po for what its worth. you cant tell me shai will sit or be inj anymore than i can tell fvv will break and miss fantasy po

I wonder  how many people in this forum had fantasy playoffs done by March 21st...  35% or less  would  be my guess

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