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Jesse Winker 2022 Outlook


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Winker is a daily league beast. One of the best hitters in the league v RHP. Not that good v lefties. I doubt he is platooned, but be aware of that split if you have bench bats.

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42 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Winker is a daily league beast. One of the best hitters in the league v RHP. Not that good v lefties. I doubt he is platooned, but be aware of that split if you have bench bats.

You’re actually being way too kind when you say he’s “not that good vs. lefties.” He’s absolutely atrocious against left handed pitching.

Against RHP he was .346/.428/.642

Against LHP he was .177/.288/.284

His OPS was nearly 500 points better vs. RHP.

His OPS+ was 192 vs. RHP and 58 vs. LHP.

He’s one of the very best hitters in the game against righties and one of the absolute worst hitters in the game against lefties.

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1 minute ago, Dislimb said:

You’re actually being way too kind when you say he’s “not that good vs. lefties.” He’s absolutely atrocious against left handed pitching.

Against RHP he was .346/.428/.642

Against LHP he was .177/.288/.284

His OPS was nearly 500 points better vs. RHP.

His OPS+ was 192 vs. RHP and 58 vs. LHP.

He’s one of the very best hitters in the game against righties and one of the absolute worst hitters in the game against lefties.

Thanks for the stats. I guess he should be platooned, those are awful lefty splits. But what a beast against RHP

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4 hours ago, Dislimb said:

You’re actually being way too kind when you say he’s “not that good vs. lefties.” He’s absolutely atrocious against left handed pitching.

Against RHP he was .346/.428/.642

Against LHP he was .177/.288/.284

His OPS was nearly 500 points better vs. RHP.

His OPS+ was 192 vs. RHP and 58 vs. LHP.

He’s one of the very best hitters in the game against righties and one of the absolute worst hitters in the game against lefties.

Im not trying to be an apologist here but that slash line is from 102 ABs from last year. Im not saying it isnt ugly or a fluke but i wouldnt write him off against LHP just yet. In an even smaller sample size from 2020, he hit .265 in 34 ABs, the years prior .163 in 43 and .211 in 57. Digging into his AAA splits he hit .264 in 110 ABs in 2017 and .240 in 100 ABs in 2016. 

My point here is that the sample sizes are still relatively small. I think we can conclude Jesse struggles against LHP but is he really a .177 hitter? Hopefully a new hitting coach, environment and a seat next to Kelenic (.168 vs LHP) on the struggle bus will turn things around.

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2 hours ago, arthurpete said:

Im not trying to be an apologist here but that slash line is from 102 ABs from last year. Im not saying it isnt ugly or a fluke but i wouldnt write him off against LHP just yet. In an even smaller sample size from 2020, he hit .265 in 34 ABs, the years prior .163 in 43 and .211 in 57. Digging into his AAA splits he hit .264 in 110 ABs in 2017 and .240 in 100 ABs in 2016. 

My point here is that the sample sizes are still relatively small. I think we can conclude Jesse struggles against LHP but is he really a .177 hitter? Hopefully a new hitting coach, environment and a seat next to Kelenic (.168 vs LHP) on the struggle bus will turn things around.

Okay, let’s just use his full career then. He’s had 650 PA against LHP in the major leagues and this is his triple slash:

.188/.305/.295 and a tOPS+ of 38.

Godawful. He’s not going to magically start hitting lefties all of a sudden, especially in a much tougher park to hit in. Winker is the poster child for a platoon bat. Granted, he’s on the better side of things since he’s a lefty hitter but he shouldn’t ever be played against a lefty starter. A guy like Jordan Luplow would be perfect to platoon a guy like Winker with. In fact, that would be one hell of a combo in LF.

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1 hour ago, Dislimb said:

Okay, let’s just use his full career then. He’s had 650 PA against LHP in the major leagues and this is his triple slash:

.188/.305/.295 and a tOPS+ of 38.

Godawful. He’s not going to magically start hitting lefties all of a sudden, especially in a much tougher park to hit in. Winker is the poster child for a platoon bat. Granted, he’s on the better side of things since he’s a lefty hitter but he shouldn’t ever be played against a lefty starter. A guy like Jordan Luplow would be perfect to platoon a guy like Winker with. In fact, that would be one hell of a combo in LF.

Im showing 306 MLB PAs @ .188/.305/.295. 650 would be a significantly larger sample size and i would be more inclined to agree with you but 306 in my opinion isnt enough to write him off entirely.

Further, he has 250 AAA PAs @ .252/.360/.347........this isnt terrible, its actually good, of course, small sample size though.

My point is, he showed in a limited fashion that he isnt a total turd in AAA vs lefties. He has struggled in a limited sample size at the majors. Progression isnt that same for everyone and i think he still has the potential to be competent enough to not warrant a complete platoon.

 

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Winker never really had full playing time as it had generally been interrupted by injuries.  Hard to know if he can adjust to Left handed pitching.  he doesn't need to do much against it to be one of the best players.  

His Expected batting avg against RHP is like 50 points high but his Expected BA is like 50 points too low against LHP.

I'm all in at his price which is next to nothing.  

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

image.png.e0cb23fadf2c609cd69a8cd3ebb02012.png

This doesnt include today's 3 hit effort. He seems to be just the same as last year getting a bit unlucky. 

  • 6th unluckiest hitter in terms of WOBA vs xWOBA
  • 6th unluckiest hitter in terms of SLG vs xSLG
  • 2nd unluckiest hitter in terms of BA vs xBA

Maybe the buy low window is closing, but this looks a lot like 2021 "under the hood"

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Are we buying?   He struggled last year to open the season IIRC, and then lit it up.  Is the change a parks a big deal for him tho?   To go from Cincy to Seattle as a hitter is a yuuuuuge difference.  I do wonder about that long term.

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I’m buying. He’s on the brink of busting loose and is getting every opportunity lefty or righty on the mound. I’ve been watching his at bats and he is getting deep into counts and seeing lots of pitches which tells me he is seeing the ball very well. Hitting it hard too when he makes contact.  Buy buy buy.

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2 hours ago, dicka24 said:

Are we buying?   He struggled last year to open the season IIRC, and then lit it up.  Is the change a parks a big deal for him tho?   To go from Cincy to Seattle as a hitter is a yuuuuuge difference.  I do wonder about that long term.

While I'd expect the power numbers to come down a bit (he's already been snake bitten a few times this years on balls that would probably be out at Great American Smallpark)

He's a great buy low. He's a great source of BA and counting categories batting 3rd in a solid lineup. He's also been playing vs lefties a decent amount, but if you're in a daily league, I like sitting him vs lefties

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 5/1/2022 at 6:00 PM, to_be_quite_frank said:

image.png.e0cb23fadf2c609cd69a8cd3ebb02012.png

This doesnt include today's 3 hit effort. He seems to be just the same as last year getting a bit unlucky. 

  • 6th unluckiest hitter in terms of WOBA vs xWOBA
  • 6th unluckiest hitter in terms of SLG vs xSLG
  • 2nd unluckiest hitter in terms of BA vs xBA

Maybe the buy low window is closing, but this looks a lot like 2021 "under the hood"

His HardHit% is still very low. Something about him is not the same as last year, I'm starting to think it's not just a bad luck thing.

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5 hours ago, StartYourStuds said:

His body language was terrible tonight… he’s clearly frustrated… he will figure it out eventually but it’s been disappointment thus far: 

He’s been so so bad. Giving Wink till the end of the month & then I’m out. Can’t keep chasing last years numbers. Clearly not the same player, barrel rate way down & hard hit rate as discussed. The dude doesn’t even walk anymore as teams stopped being careful. 

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

This is what happens when you move from the best LHF ballpark to the worst LHF ballpark in the league 

Winker hit half his hrs last year away from Cinci. Nothing to do with parks at this point, he’s not barreling balls this year at all. He’s become the king of the pop up. We are all just chasing last years stats atp. 

Edited by chud12
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Posted (edited)

Savant numbers are getting worse. Is it really worth holding him any longer at this point? With the Mariners being just plain bad this year, I think I'm out. I expected more out of them. I thought it would be a good offense to have someone from. 

Edited by marble_donut
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