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Tua Tagovailoa 2022 Outlook


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I think there's a good bit of people who are either Hill or Waddle but not both.   If you've got 10 people, 2/3 Hill fans and 2/3 (different) Waddle fans, that's enough to keep their ADP's high.   If you're a fan of one player at cost but not the other.....you don't necessarily have the ammo to say Tua is gonna break out just because you like one his wideouts.   

It's also relative to other QB's.  Even if you like Tua a lot this year, there's a solid 10 (at least) of more proven fellas with much higher floors.  Tua could leap forward as a stat guy and still barely be a QB1 if enough other QB's stay healthy.  

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I still don't understand exactly why Tua's pro career has taken the shape it has is my problem.

At one point in his career at Alabama he looked like potentially one of the better quarterback prospects in recent draft history.  Like not a stretch at all IMO if he continued that level of play to suggest he was a better prospect than Burrow or Lawrence.

Then he tore the knee.  Ok, so you need to bake in recovery time.

Also the defense played pretty well.  And his coach may not have been the most creative passing scheme wise.

Where does that leave us?  Is that guy at Alabama still in there?  Does he want to come out and play?

You got me man.  But if he doesn't take a significant step forward I don't know how Hill and Waddle aren't BOTH disappointments.

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1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Also the defense played pretty well.  And his coach may not have been the most creative passing scheme wise.

Where does that leave us?  Is that guy at Alabama still in there?  Does he want to come out and play?

You got me man.  But if he doesn't take a significant step forward I don't know how Hill and Waddle aren't BOTH disappointments.

*Note: Injury was his hip* but you are correct that he had a prolonged rehab - it was a serious injury one they were worried about long term.

The more I hear about the previous coach the worse it gets. I didn't think it was that bad but obviously it was. I do have hope that this is a much more creative offense and I expect them to focus on getting Hill and Waddle the ball and let them make plays. I think Tua could be a good QB using his accuracy to make plays by getting the ball to his weapons. Adding a threat like Hill will help this offense and give Waddle and Gesicki more room to work.

This offense was not good last year, the O-line was bad and Tua didn't have any time to work back there. My main concern is how are they going to address the bad O-line play?

I expect the play calling to be much more creative. Tua could end up having a very good year (best of his NFL career) which will be good for the Fins, BUT, will it be good for fantasy? That I'm not sure yet. I don't expect Tua to get a ton of rushing yards/TDs so it will be hard for him to compete with the elite rushing QBs. I also don't expect him to throw for 4500 yards and 35TDs like other elite passers. That doesn't mean Tua can't have a good football season, just doesn't get me super excited from a fantasy perspective.

TLDR: Tua can be a good NFL QB, be in an improved Miami offense, but that doesn't mean it will push him up into the top 12 (QB1) fantasy territory. Somewhere around QB15 is probably where he ends up if he plays a whole season. Right now probably a streaming option in good match-ups. 

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1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I still don't understand exactly why Tua's pro career has taken the shape it has is my problem.

At one point in his career at Alabama he looked like potentially one of the better quarterback prospects in recent draft history.  Like not a stretch at all IMO if he continued that level of play to suggest he was a better prospect than Burrow or Lawrence.

Then he tore the knee.  Ok, so you need to bake in recovery time.

Also the defense played pretty well.  And his coach may not have been the most creative passing scheme wise.

Where does that leave us?  Is that guy at Alabama still in there?  Does he want to come out and play?

You got me man.  But if he doesn't take a significant step forward I don't know how Hill and Waddle aren't BOTH disappointments.

I’m shocked at how little you know about Tua and his situation. 
 

his knee never was hurt….

 

 

“Tua not only dislocated his hip — the same injury that wrecked Bo Jackson’s career — but he also suffered a posterior wall fracture and a bloody nose.

But Tagovailoa was fortunate to have immediate medical attention, including surgery. Jackson, meanwhile, was unaware of the severity of the injury at the time, and the medical staff’s failure to act promptly caused irreparable damage.

Upon completion of the procedure, Alabama orthopedic surgeon Dr. Lyle Cain stated, “Tua’s prognosis is excellent, and we expect him to make a full recovery.”

 

Because of the pandemic, Tua had no on-field work with the Dolphins until training camp in August. Still, the Dolphins believed he had healed sufficiently to serve as the backup to Ryan Fitzpatrick to start the season instead of beginning the year on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list.

 

 

Tagovailoa would go on to start nine games, completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,814 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. While he insisted that he was healthy, Tagovailoa later acknowledged that he did not have his full range of motion and strength back until the 2021 offseason. It impacted his performance.

“I wanted to get stronger with my upper body, my shoulders, triceps, biceps, my core,” Tagovailoa said in May. “Then I guess you could say the focus, if we had leg day, would really be the glutes to kind of help support the hip. I think my hip feels 10 times better than it did last year and the confidence level for myself, I feel really confident coming into this second year after that injury two years ago.”

 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/tua-tagovailoas-hip-injury-how-severe-was-it-and-can-he-improve-in-year-2/#Tua-Tagovailoa-gets-first-game-action-following-rocky-rookie-seas

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
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1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I still don't understand exactly why Tua's pro career has taken the shape it has is my problem.

At one point in his career at Alabama he looked like potentially one of the better quarterback prospects in recent draft history.  Like not a stretch at all IMO if he continued that level of play to suggest he was a better prospect than Burrow or Lawrence.

Then he tore the knee.  Ok, so you need to bake in recovery time.

Also the defense played pretty well.  And his coach may not have been the most creative passing scheme wise.

Where does that leave us?  Is that guy at Alabama still in there?  Does he want to come out and play?

You got me man.  But if he doesn't take a significant step forward I don't know how Hill and Waddle aren't BOTH disappointments.


the injury was only 1 part of the equation. The situation he was thrust into was less than ideal as well. Trade rumors of the dolphins chasing Deshaun Watson obviously had a negative effect last year.

 

ineptitude in the offensive coaching staff is another reason. Co offensive coordinators was a terrible idea, firing OL coaches in training camp to hire 1st time coaches. It was an all around toxic locker room that the head coach divided. Not an environment that fosters success and Tua had no running game, OL, and some of the worst WR separation in the league.

 

obviously with a lot of that fixed you can see the renewed optimism for Tua and this upcoming season. 

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39 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

I’m shocked at how little you know about Tua and his situation. 
 

his knee never was hurt….

 

 

“Tua not only dislocated his hip — the same injury that wrecked Bo Jackson’s career — but he also suffered a posterior wall fracture and a bloody nose.

But Tagovailoa was fortunate to have immediate medical attention, including surgery. Jackson, meanwhile, was unaware of the severity of the injury at the time, and the medical staff’s failure to act promptly caused irreparable damage.

Upon completion of the procedure, Alabama orthopedic surgeon Dr. Lyle Cain stated, “Tua’s prognosis is excellent, and we expect him to make a full recovery.”

 

Because of the pandemic, Tua had no on-field work with the Dolphins until training camp in August. Still, the Dolphins believed he had healed sufficiently to serve as the backup to Ryan Fitzpatrick to start the season instead of beginning the year on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list.

 

 

Tagovailoa would go on to start nine games, completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,814 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. While he insisted that he was healthy, Tagovailoa later acknowledged that he did not have his full range of motion and strength back until the 2021 offseason. It impacted his performance.

“I wanted to get stronger with my upper body, my shoulders, triceps, biceps, my core,” Tagovailoa said in May. “Then I guess you could say the focus, if we had leg day, would really be the glutes to kind of help support the hip. I think my hip feels 10 times better than it did last year and the confidence level for myself, I feel really confident coming into this second year after that injury two years ago.”

 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/tua-tagovailoas-hip-injury-how-severe-was-it-and-can-he-improve-in-year-2/#Tua-Tagovailoa-gets-first-game-action-following-rocky-rookie-seas

 

1 hour ago, Big Nate said:

*Note: Injury was his hip* but you are correct that he had a prolonged rehab - it was a serious injury one they were worried about long term.

The more I hear about the previous coach the worse it gets. I didn't think it was that bad but obviously it was. I do have hope that this is a much more creative offense and I expect them to focus on getting Hill and Waddle the ball and let them make plays. I think Tua could be a good QB using his accuracy to make plays by getting the ball to his weapons. Adding a threat like Hill will help this offense and give Waddle and Gesicki more room to work.

This offense was not good last year, the O-line was bad and Tua didn't have any time to work back there. My main concern is how are they going to address the bad O-line play?

I expect the play calling to be much more creative. Tua could end up having a very good year (best of his NFL career) which will be good for the Fins, BUT, will it be good for fantasy? That I'm not sure yet. I don't expect Tua to get a ton of rushing yards/TDs so it will be hard for him to compete with the elite rushing QBs. I also don't expect him to throw for 4500 yards and 35TDs like other elite passers. That doesn't mean Tua can't have a good football season, just doesn't get me super excited from a fantasy perspective.

TLDR: Tua can be a good NFL QB, be in an improved Miami offense, but that doesn't mean it will push him up into the top 12 (QB1) fantasy territory. Somewhere around QB15 is probably where he ends up if he plays a whole season. Right now probably a streaming option in good match-ups. 

Right right right right, hip not knee.  I'm getting old guys, I forget things that happened two days ago yet alone 3 years ago.

I think regardless of the nature of the injury though my point is understood.

He was an incredible prospect, he suffered serious injury, he got drafted to a team with a pedestrian passing offense with possibly a mediocre to bad play caller, and all those things are relevant, but I am not sure if another year's recovery and a different coaching staff changes anything for him.

I think if you are a potebtial Hill or Waddle (or Tua) drafter, you have to at least consider this might be who he is as a professional.

I'm a little hesitant to draft any of these guys at cost.  It may come down to my alternatives.

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Cautiously optimistic about Tua as a Dolphins fan, but I still have concerns about his ability when under pressure.  While I think the Dolphins upgraded their OL significantly, that means they probably went from a bottom three line to an average (at best) line.  I'm happy that there will be no excuses either way after this season.  We should see who Tua really is.  I don't see him breaking the top 12 as a fantasy QB, but he could end up as a solid real life QB if he performs better under pressure and he is pressured less.  Both of these things should be helped by improved line play and more creative offensive play calling.  Or he might never feel comfortable in a collapsing pocket and make too many bad decisions.  Time will tell.

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36 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

 

Right right right right, hip not knee.  I'm getting old guys, I forget things that happened two days ago yet alone 3 years ago.

I think regardless of the nature of the injury though my point is understood.

He was an incredible prospect, he suffered serious injury, he got drafted to a team with a pedestrian passing offense with possibly a mediocre to bad play caller, and all those things are relevant, but I am not sure if another year's recovery and a different coaching staff changes anything for him.

I think if you are a potebtial Hill or Waddle (or Tua) drafter, you have to at least consider this might be who he is as a professional.

I'm a little hesitant to draft any of these guys at cost.  It may come down to my alternatives.

Everyone is entitled to their opinions.

 

I respect your doubt even though I do not share the pessimism.

 

Tua was pretty good with the worst Oline in the NFL, a coach who didn’t want him and tried to trade him, no running game, and almost no relevant WR’s.

 

I am of the belief that now that he has recovered from his career threatening hip injury, has a head coach who believes in him, a competent offensive coaching staff, upgraded OL, WRs, and RBs, that we will see a big upgrade in Tua’s performance this year. 

My major concern is him staying healthy for 17 games. He needs to prove he can do that.

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6 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

1150 yards is top 10 for a WR.

1050 yards is top 20 for a WR.

2200 yards is not top 17 for a QB.

Math checks out to me.

On a serious note, it's fairly simple.  Part of the offense is ranked disproportionately.  The world just can't agree on which part.

You think Tua is undervalued relative to the WRs rank.  Many people think Hill\Waddle are overvalued relative to the QB rank.  That's what makes the game interesting.

Tua stats last year, extrapolated out to 17 games:

3,469 yards, 21 TDs, 13 INT, 55 rushes, 167 yards, 4TD.  247 fantasy points.

Add Tyreek Hill's stats directly on top. (This is absolutely not realistic but to get the point across...)

Tyreek had 1239 yards and 9TDs last year.

That would bring Tua to 4,708\30.

That new statline total would result in 333 fantasy points. (Yahoo default scoring)

That would barely edge out the 12th best QB last year, Kirk Cousins, and Russell Wilson (who also both support 2 top 20 WRs without being starters, but I digress). This is of course, extrapolating all QBs to the full 17 games as we did with Tua.  (I'm not adjusting for games left early for any of the 25 QBs listed)
*Fumbles not included.

Tua.png

a lot of stats and conjecture here, and the chart is informative. 

I'm going to focus on  Cousins and Wilson, tail end of starters in a 14 team league.  First of all, Cousins only had one top 20 wr (Theilen was 28th).  

Wilson did have two top twenty receivers (13th and 15th), but the cupboard was bare after that.  Next best was Freddy Swain (82nd) and he outperformed the te while Travis Homer lead the backfield for receiving yards.

Tua has 2 top twenty wr's, a top ten te, and a top 5-10 rb stable for catching the ball.  He's the trigger man for the fastest group of skill players the league has ever seen.  To me that puts him in the top 14 as a baseline with the upside to be as good as any of the other non mobile qb's and their 20 - 21 points per game (Brady the exception but without Gronk I see him in that range too).  Tua's thrown completions at a 65% rate so far.  And since he's no longer getting Nagy'd by Brian Flores, he has the potential to improve his stats in three major ways:  better weapons, better coaching, and better health.  I usually pick mobile qb's early, but this season I'm thinking about waiting and drafting Tua and as insurance 1 or 2 more of Carr, Daniel pick six Jones, Fields, and Trubiscuits, who are also under-rated in my opinion.

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22 minutes ago, rocklandrew said:

a lot of stats and conjecture here, and the chart is informative. 

I'm going to focus on  Cousins and Wilson, tail end of starters in a 14 team league.  First of all, Cousins only had one top 20 wr (Theilen was 28th).  

Theilen was 16th in PPG, he missed 3 games.  If I'm giving Tua the extrapolation, why shouldn't everyone get the same benefit?  It's the only accurate way to ignore attrition, that's not what wins fantasy games.

And please, let's not pretend this doesn't happen all the time.  Don't make me go through the years, for such a meaningless player analysis.

Matt Ryan had 2 top 20 WRs and was QB14 in PPG.

Brady was only QB11, also had 2 top 20 WRs.

Watson is better than Tua will ever be, QB7 with 2 top 20 WRs.

Kirk Cousins, QB13, 2 top 20 WRs.

That's JUST 2020.

More importantly, finishing top 12-14 at QB means essentially nothing.  Every year QBs from 10-20 all have the exact same likelihood to finish in any order, and will swap around every week, and none of them should be blindly started in fantasy, and no one cares in what order they're drafted or finish.

I mean Kirk Cousins does it every year, right?  He's the QB drafted immediately next to Tua, so why are you pretending this is some travesty being committed against Tua?

That's where fringe QBs that no one wants to HAVE to rely on, get drafted.

Who are you drafting Tua ahead of anyways?  Carr just threw 4800 yards last year, and added Adams.

Tom Brady was QB2 last year.

Russell Wilson in an absolute terrible year, was QB13 with a way sexier track record.

Watson if he played, no one in their right mind is taking Tua ahead of him.

Those are the 4 QBs in front of Tua right now.

I think you guys are just too blind to the landscape.  You see QB17 and get offended, but when you start stacking the names you realize he's right where he belongs.

Allen, Mahomes, Herbert, Lamar, Burrow, Murray, Hurtz, Rodgers, Brady, Stafford, Dak, Watson(16games).

We're already 12 deep.

Carr, Wilson, Cousins.  That's 15.  Maybe Tua goes here?  So... All this to justify moving him up 1 spot?

If we're talking pure upside, Fields, Lance, Lawrence.  If you want Tua or think he can be top 12... Cool.  Nothing wrong with that.  But unless you can give me a reason every QB I just listed isn't also just as likely to be top 12 at the end of the year, then what are we talking about?

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1 hour ago, rocklandrew said:
Tua's odds improve by 6X but his fantasy adp stays almost the same? being drafted at 135 according to fantasypros.    MVP being a stat based award as Aaron Rodgers knows.

also love Hurts at his 70 adp.

Note that "MVP odds" and ADP are different things, follow different trends and timelines, are influenced by different people, etc. Having said that, on this betting site they reference, Tua is still only the #17. 

https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/nfl-player-futures/mvp

So... no news, just clickbait.

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1 hour ago, rocklandrew said:

MVP being a stat based award as Aaron Rodgers knows.

The same Aaron Rodgers who wasn't a top 5 fantasy QB last year?  The same Aaron Rodgers who barely broke 4k passing yards?  The same Aaron Rodgers who did NOT have 2 top 20 WRs?

Rodgers won MVP because of stats that don't effect fantasy.  TD:Int ratio and NFL record.

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2 hours ago, rocklandrew said:

Tua's odds improve by 6X but his fantasy adp stays almost the same? being drafted at 135 according to fantasypros.    MVP being a stat based award as Aaron Rodgers knows.

also love Hurts at his 70 adp.

 

 

@FFCollusion said it well the post above yours and is in line with what I was saying in that I think Tua finishes around QB15 assuming he plays all 17 games. Right around Cousins area but behind Carr who also got the addition of Adams and a healthy Waller.

Here is the reality, Tua can be a good QB for Miami, take that next step but still not make the top 12 (QB1) in fantasy points scored (total or per game). As a Fins fan I'm pulling for Tua and I think he can have success but he needs a lot of things to go right to be a QB1 including adding some rushing to his game. Not sure about that last one though with his hip issue.

I think Miami has a balanced attack and uses their newly acquired RBs similar to how SF did (Edmonds, Michel and Moster if he can stay healthy, and they still have Gaskin and Ahmed.) As much as I want to see Tua sling it, I think he has the accuracy to do it (like he did in college), I don't think Miami goes that route as they run a more balanced attack.

In order to be a QB 1 you need 1) elite rushing upside (Tua could have that potential but his hip injury derailed that option), 2) Throw upwards of 35-40 TDs, and likely also 4500+ yards. I'd love to see Tua throw for 35 TDs and 4000+ yards but with a balanced offense I just don't see the passing volume for him.

Doesn't mean he can't have a good football season, just don't expect him as a QB1 for fantasy.

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In a two QB league, Tua is a very interesting and sneaky pick as your second QB.

In a one QB league, he's not very exciting, even with all the new positives.

You're not going to pick him as your QB1, right?  So he's your backup.  Let's say he outperforms his ADP significantly....what now? 

In a one QB league, QBs are very hard to trade.  Every other team is likely going to have a really good QB starting for them, barring injury, and we know QB is the healthiest position.  What do you really think you can get for him in a trade?  Most likely not very much.  Heck, a lot of teams don't even carry a backup QB because there are so many available on the wire.  They're not going to give you even a flex player for him.

At best what you are doing then is playing matchups with your two QBs.  Not a terrible strategy but that's also based on Tua becoming a great QB.

 

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30 minutes ago, kp96 said:

In a two QB league, Tua is a very interesting and sneaky pick as your second QB.

In a one QB league, he's not very exciting, even with all the new positives.

You're not going to pick him as your QB1, right?  So he's your backup.  Let's say he outperforms his ADP significantly....what now? 

In a one QB league, QBs are very hard to trade.  Every other team is likely going to have a really good QB starting for them, barring injury, and we know QB is the healthiest position.  What do you really think you can get for him in a trade?  Most likely not very much.  Heck, a lot of teams don't even carry a backup QB because there are so many available on the wire.  They're not going to give you even a flex player for him.

At best what you are doing then is playing matchups with your two QBs.  Not a terrible strategy but that's also based on Tua becoming a great QB.

 

This is important for 1QB leagues. I have one league (single QB) where people seem to want to draft multiple QBs and carry them for weeks. In hopes of what? You can't trade them for equal value of where you had to draft them and they take up a roster spot. It is why I said Tua is likely a streaming option throughout the year. I hate carrying extra QBs/TEs unless I'm streaming AND have byes coming up. I'd rather my bench spots be players like back-up RBs who have starting potential if the starter goes down. Not a QB14 who I wouldn't ever start. What a waste.

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On 6/28/2022 at 12:12 PM, Big Nate said:

This is important for 1QB leagues. I have one league (single QB) where people seem to want to draft multiple QBs and carry them for weeks. In hopes of what? You can't trade them for equal value of where you had to draft them and they take up a roster spot. It is why I said Tua is likely a streaming option throughout the year. I hate carrying extra QBs/TEs unless I'm streaming AND have byes coming up. I'd rather my bench spots be players like back-up RBs who have starting potential if the starter goes down. Not a QB14 who I wouldn't ever start. What a waste.


might want to rethink this.

 

sss applies but that offense looks fast this year 🤷‍♂️

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13 minutes ago, KennyWoo said:

Streamer.

Streaming into your starting lineup if you are lucky enough. 
 

anybody throwing to Tyreek, Waddle, Gesicki, Cedrick Wilson, with Mostert, Edmonds, gaskin, Michel at RB warrants consideration, especially given the price tag. 
 

all fantasy comes with a little risk, there is a lot to like about Tua’s game skills and now his skill weapons are scary dangerous. 
 

I’d much prefer Tua and his weapons with his price tag compared to kyler Murray and his price tag.

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21 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Damn. Looks like the Fins are stuck with Tua now. 

Why? They have the 49ers 1st next year and their 2024 1st if they want to trade up for who they like. 
 

that being said, Tua will be fine this year with competent coaches, a running game, an offensive line, multiple dangerous WRs, all things he lacked his first 2 years. 
 

As the naysayers like to say about the guy who has never made excuses; “He is all out of excuses now!!!”

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I - like the Dolphins - am at a crossroads with him this year. Still holding on in a dynasty because he comes at a slight discount. I can only keep him next year for any WW QB value, so he needs to finally prove he's better than that for me to hold on. Like the Dolphins I've owned him since his rookie year.

I'm sure MIA feels the same way at this point. If he does not produce this year he will be jettisoned to Clipboard-Jesus-status for the remainder of his career, and that will be on teams other than the Dolphins.

Considering the weapons he now has in addition to the more offensive-minded coach, failure at this point will be entirely upon him. He needs to be a top 7-10 QB this year (or better) - period - to justify any further effort to build around him.

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