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Tua Tagovailoa 2022 Outlook


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24 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Chase Edmonds is absolutely a top 20 receiving back 

So yeah, he has probably a top 15 player at every skill position?  I'm in if his ADP remains low.  Don't think he needs to be that great (which I don't think he is), for him to ball out in fantasy.  He's loaded and has no excuses.

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10 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

Chase Edmonds is absolutely a top 20 receiving back 


fantasy pro’s had him at #17 as far as targets last year.  Checkin in with 53 targets.
 

sandwiched in between Ty Johnson of the NYJ (55 targets) and Ameer Abdullah of the Carolina Panthers (53 targets)


not sure he is that much better of a pass catching back than Myles Gaskin but what Edmonds does really really well is pass block. He isn’t the biggest guy but he is an excellent pass blocker, which will pay huge dividends while he is on the field. His ability to catch will certainly help the team in some critical situations as well.

 

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:


fantasy pro’s had him at #17 as far as targets last year.  Checkin in with 53 targets.
 

sandwiched in between Ty Johnson of the NYJ (55 targets) and Ameer Abdullah of the Carolina Panthers (53 targets)


not sure he is that much better of a pass catching back than Myles Gaskin but what Edmonds does really really well is pass block. He isn’t the biggest guy but he is an excellent pass blocker, which will pay huge dividends while he is on the field. His ability to catch will certainly help the team in some critical situations as well.

 

Yes and he did that in only 12 games. He was 14th total in RB receptions and 10 of the RB ahead of him played at least 15 games and all but JD mckissick played more games than him. This is also while he was in a time share role sharing 37 more receptions with James Conner as opposed to someone like najee Harris who only lost 4 receptions to other RBs on the Steelers roster. 

He is imo absolutely a top receiving backs. 

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3 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Yes and he did that in only 12 games. He was 14th total in RB receptions and 10 of the RB ahead of him played at least 15 games and all but JD mckissick played more games than him. This is also while he was in a time share role sharing 37 more receptions with James Conner as opposed to someone like najee Harris who only lost 4 receptions to other RBs on the Steelers roster. 

He is imo absolutely a top receiving backs. 


when healthy he is a pretty good receiving back.
 

Still not sure he is much better than Myles Gaskin but a welcomed addition to a Dolphins offense that was starving for playmakers. 
 

between Mostert, Edmonds, and Gaskin hopefully 1 of them can be available every week since they all struggle with injuries. 

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Hill and Mostert may be the only nfl players ever clocked going over 23 mph during a game, which they did in 2016 and 2020, respectively.  Waddle tied (with Derrick Henry) for fourth fastest last year at 21.8.  Gisecki is 6'6" 249 and was estimated at 21.4 mph at the end of his combine run.  looks like the Fins have the fastest skill position room ever assembled.  Maybe not a coincidence that MVS was second fastest last season and was signed by the Chefs to help replace Hill.

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On 3/24/2022 at 10:44 PM, Stonej14 said:

You keep referring to josh Allen as a comparison. Is that simply because he was a year 3 breakout?. Idk if that’s a fair one. Josh Allen never had arm strength questions or the inability to make all the throws. Josh Allen’s main problem was accuracy which was quickly corrected when he finally got good players who can get open. 
 

Tua appears to have one of the weaker arms of the NFL starters. That’s not to say he has a limp noodle arm it’s just the arm strength of a lot of QBs are out of this world right now (he’s closer to a teddy bridgewater arm than Justin Herbert arm).  He doesn’t make many “wow” throws josh Allen even as a rookie had some throws that dropped a lot of jaws. I think a better hopeful comparison could be Jared Goffs 2nd season (hopefully even better than that). But that’s just my 2 cents.

Meh. Allen's accuracy issues were tethered to bad footwork and a bad sense of timing than his receivers not getting open. His completion % might be higher because of Diggs but that's about it. Allen would miss dudes wide open 10 feet in front of him by a mile. Honestly I think Diggs statistical jump has more to do with how good Josh Allen is than the reverse but that's not a popular take. 

 

Plus I think Tua is a bit over-hated because that was not NFL quality offensive line play in Miami the past couple years. To me that's a big reason their offense has to throw short a lot and spam RPOs. You can't ask Tua to hold the ball forever behind that unit. Also limited Waddle's production as a result. 

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Tua turned Jaylen Waddle into a possession receiver last year.  There was that win against NO where he threw some duck for an INT.  I just don't see it with him. He's weak armed and increasingly injury prone.  

 

They also improved the OL, so you can't blame that area either.

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On 3/25/2022 at 12:28 AM, Stonej14 said:

Woah big fella I wasn’t putting tua down just pointing out that the differences in the shortcomings of each Allen and tua in their first couple seasons so more low IQ people like me won’t get confused. Honestly I think tua will do pretty good this year. 
 

I disagree with the arm strength and “wow” throws however. Just because a ball went 50 yards in air doesn’t make it impressive. And just because tua doesn’t have a huge cannon for an arm doesn’t mean he can’t be highly successful. Joe burrow doesn’t have a cannon arm but he’s got 2 good WRs and he makes all sorts of deep pass plays so can tua. 

Burrow's arm is more than adequate and he has really good touch on deep throws though. Tua's arm is borderline acceptable for the NFL. Also there is no comparison between Burrow's willingness/ability to make tough throws and Tua's. 

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28 minutes ago, cashvillesent said:

Burrow's arm is more than adequate and he has really good touch on deep throws though. Tua's arm is borderline acceptable for the NFL. Also there is no comparison between Burrow's willingness/ability to make tough throws and Tua's. 

Your right about that. Burrow is not afraid to sit in the pocket and attempt to make any throw he wants.

Maybe coaching has something to do with that too? Maybe the offensive minded Zach Taylor tells burrow “hey if you don’t make some big throws we don’t stand a chance so let it rip” meanwhile brian Flores a defensive coach told tua “hey protect the ball, no turnovers and we can win this ball game” ?

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18 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Your right about that. Burrow is not afraid to sit in the pocket and attempt to make any throw he wants.

Maybe coaching has something to do with that too? Maybe the offensive minded Zach Taylor tells burrow “hey if you don’t make some big throws we don’t stand a chance so let it rip” meanwhile brian Flores a defensive coach told tua “hey protect the ball, no turnovers and we can win this ball game” ?


you are starting to dig into part of the reason why one has flourished thus far and 1 has struggled. 
 

The Bengals offense and coaches have created an offense around Burrow and have allowed him to thrive.

 

the opposite was true for Tua, wrong head coach, terrible assistants, no support, and he was not allowed to audible, he has said that he was told if he didn’t run the play sent into the helmet he would be benched.

 

I don’t think you can judge much from Tua’s first 2 years recovering from the hip injury and the dumpster fire of coaches, assistants, and skill players he was forced to play with.

 

obviously this year will be big for Tua with little to no room for error but you have to give credit for these coaches doing their best to give Tua what Joe Burrow has in Cincinniati. Better skill position players, supportive coaches with actual offensive game plans and the confidence to tell Tua to let it rip. 

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13 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

Your right about that. Burrow is not afraid to sit in the pocket and attempt to make any throw he wants.

Maybe coaching has something to do with that too? Maybe the offensive minded Zach Taylor tells burrow “hey if you don’t make some big throws we don’t stand a chance so let it rip” meanwhile brian Flores a defensive coach told tua “hey protect the ball, no turnovers and we can win this ball game” ?

I don't think so. IMO these are natural traits. Burrow has never been afraid to sling it, even in his rookie year when he was getting absolutely drilled every game. We'll see about Tua. Sometimes guys develop late but generally you know what you have after year two. 

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, cashvillesent said:

I don't think so. IMO these are natural traits. Burrow has never been afraid to sling it, even in his rookie year when he was getting absolutely drilled every game. We'll see about Tua. Sometimes guys develop late but generally you know what you have after year two. 


incorrect.

 

QBs can get significantly better after their 2nd years. Almost all of them do.  
 

josh Allen being the most recent example of this. 
 

some may learn faster, some may learn slower, some may never learn at all but QBs are not finished products after 2 years in the league.

 

some guys get drafted to good coaches and good organizations some guys get drafted to bad teams and bad organizations. 
 

I feel it is best to look at each individuals situation and circumstances on their own merits and judge accordingly. 
 

 

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
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17 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:


incorrect.

 

QBs can get significantly better after their 2nd years. Almost all of them do.  
 

josh Allen being the most recent example of this. 
 

some may learn faster, some may learn slower, some may never learn at all but QBs are not finished products after 2 years in the league.

 

some guys get drafted to good coaches and good organizations some guys get drafted to bad teams and bad organizations. 
 

I feel it is best to look at each individuals situation and circumstances on their own merits and judge accordingly. 
 

 

There are exceptions, like Josh Allen, who IMO is the biggest outlier I've ever seen at QB. But generally, you have a good idea of what you have by the end of year two. And Allen could at least make plays in other ways while his passing skills improved. Tua doesn't have that level of talent.

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1 hour ago, cashvillesent said:

There are exceptions, like Josh Allen, who IMO is the biggest outlier I've ever seen at QB. But generally, you have a good idea of what you have by the end of year two. And Allen could at least make plays in other ways while his passing skills improved. Tua doesn't have that level of talent.


the exceptions are the ones who look like Hall of Famers in their first couple seasons.

 

recency bias is strong in your post.

 

the QB of your own favorite team, due to being in a bad organization with bad coaching, did not have his best years until he was 30 years old. 
 

Malik Willis career won’t be defined by who he is after 2 seasons with Tennessee.

 

Peyton manning

eli manning

tom brady

drew brees

kurt warner

matt ryan

aaron rodgers

josh Allen 

kirk cousins

Dak Prescott

 

these are just some of the QBs who were not the best versions of themselves in year 2 of the NFL and none of them were recovering from major hip surgery with no rookie training camp due to Covid. 

 

I think most people would agree that QBs certainly can and do get better with age, some don’t. 
 

I do not believe you can determine a QBs future based off 2 seasons, they are not finished products by that time. Athletic talent doesn’t measure the heart, determination, and situation of an individual player, which are 3 critical factors in the success of any nfl QB.

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25 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:


 

 

 

the QB of your own favorite team, due to being in a bad organization with bad coaching, did not have his best years until he was 30 years old. 
 

 

Tannehill is a game manager nothing more nothing less. You wont be able to win with him as a leader in offense, especially if you cater the offense towards his arm. Same with Dak & Cousins. So those three are automatically poor examples.

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1 hour ago, cashvillesent said:

Tannehill is a game manager nothing more nothing less. You wont be able to win with him as a leader in offense, especially if you cater the offense towards his arm. Same with Dak & Cousins. So those three are automatically poor examples.


ok. Not sure what your argument is then. 
 

QBs get better after their 2nd years in the league. Just cause you don’t like Tannehill, cousins, or Dak doesn’t mean they didn’t get better after year 2. 

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20 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:


ok. Not sure what your argument is then. 
 

QBs get better after their 2nd years in the league. Just cause you don’t like Tannehill, cousins, or Dak doesn’t mean they didn’t get better after year 2. 

I'm not saying guys are at their career peak in year 2. I'm saying if they haven't shown you the ability by then they're likely a bust. Every guy in your list except for maybe Eli showed more in their first two seasons than Tua has. Malik Willis is complete project. He's supposed to look bad his first two years. Tua was supposed to be the face of the franchise year one; now it's looking like a stretch he'll ever be mid-tier. This isn't 2003 anymore, these guys come out of college with tons more passing reps. Same goes with receivers

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Just now, cashvillesent said:

I'm not saying guys are at their career peak in year 2. I'm saying if they haven't shown you the ability by then they're likely a bust. Every guy in your list except for maybe Eli showed more in their first two seasons than Tua has. Malik Willis is complete project. He's supposed to look bad his first two years. Tua was supposed to be the face of the franchise year one; now it's looking like a stretch he'll ever be mid-tier. This isn't 2003 anymore, these guys come out of college with tons more passing reps. Same goes with receivers

His redzone completion percentage is #1 in the league. 
 

That was without Terron Armstead, Connor Williams, Raheem Mostert, Chase Edmonds, Sony Michel, Cedric Wilson, or Tyreek Hill.

 

he has traits of a successful NFL QB but he lacked proper coaching to maximize his potential. It happens with a lot of QBs. Oddly enough it happened with Drew Brees, a common comparison for Tua. Coach and QB meshed perfectly and they made sweet music together. Not all QBs are Burrow or Herbert. Tua has some elite Intangibles that can make him dangerous. This offseason has surrounded him with coaches and weapons that will give him a chance to prove it this year. 
 

he has struggled with injury so staying healthy will be critical but with the addition of a strong running game, an upgrade on the OLine then Tua can excel in what he has always been good at, to get the ball into his elite skill players hands and let them go to work. 
 

I’ve complained about Tua’s head coach, assistant coaches, lack of offensive weapons, because they have all been legitimate concerns to me that other QBs have had. He does not have any of those issues this year so I think this year would be the best to judge what he could potentially be in the NFL.

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

His redzone completion percentage is #1 in the league. 

We talked about this. It's a fairly meaningless stat as long as he doesn't actually throw in the red zone.

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

His redzone completion percentage is #1 in the league. 
 

That was without Terron Armstead, Connor Williams, Raheem Mostert, Chase Edmonds, Sony Michel, Cedric Wilson, or Tyreek Hill.

 

he has traits of a successful NFL QB but he lacked proper coaching to maximize his potential. It happens with a lot of QBs. Oddly enough it happened with Drew Brees, a common comparison for Tua. Coach and QB meshed perfectly and they made sweet music together. Not all QBs are Burrow or Herbert. Tua has some elite Intangibles that can make him dangerous. This offseason has surrounded him with coaches and weapons that will give him a chance to prove it this year. 
 

he has struggled with injury so staying healthy will be critical but with the addition of a strong running game, an upgrade on the OLine then Tua can excel in what he has always been good at, to get the ball into his elite skill players hands and let them go to work. 
 

I’ve complained about Tua’s head coach, assistant coaches, lack of offensive weapons, because they have all been legitimate concerns to me that other QBs have had. He does not have any of those issues this year so I think this year would be the best to judge what he could potentially be in the NFL.

Mariota was once statistically one of the best red zone QBs in the league and look how that turned out. His plusses aren't enough to make up for his deficiencies. Dolphins won't be serious team with Tua at QB. It's just not gonna happen. He doesn't have it.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

We talked about this. It's a fairly meaningless stat as long as he doesn't actually throw in the red zone.

You talked about it. Doesn’t mean I believe you.

 

I have actually watched him play.

 

that’s why I’m optimistic of his potential after finally getting an upgrade at some key spots, to include, but not limited to;

- head coach

- assistant coaches

-  running backs

- WRs

- LT

- LG

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
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1 hour ago, cashvillesent said:

Mariota was once statistically one of the best red zone QBs in the league and look how that turned out. His plusses aren't enough to make up for his deficiencies. Dolphins won't be serious team with Tua at QB. It's just not gonna happen. He doesn't have it.

Another QB that got better after his 2nd season in the NFL. 
 

your opinion of Tua is duly noted, you feel fine calling him a bust after 2 seasons. I’ll remain more open to the possibility that he has room to improve after 2 seasons of subpar offensive coaching.

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13 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Another QB that got better after his 2nd season in the NFL. 
 

your opinion of Tua is duly noted, you feel fine calling him a bust after 2 seasons. I’ll remain more open to the possibility that he has room to improve after 2 seasons of subpar offensive coaching.

I'm always down for an agree to disagree resolution. 

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