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Alvin Kamara 2022 Outlook


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12 hours ago, harck said:

Not with Winston man, particularly with Sean Peyton gone. Watching their games last year it's clear Winston absolutely does not want to dump off like Brees. Kamara had one blow up game with Winston against Seattle where it was clearly the gameplan to feed him and Seattle left him uncovered in the first half. 

I think his days of being fed like in the Brees era are very much over, Jameis is going to look to air it out and Sean Peyton isn't there to keep him in check. Not to mention they probably shouldn't keep him in check anyway with a WR trio of MT, Landry, and Olave. 

I would be on board with this take if we didn't have Jameis on record saying that he went back and watched that Seattle game to appreciate those easy dump off yards to AK. He specifically said that is one of his main focus points this off-season. Jameis wants more than anything to revitalize his career, and he saw first hand the power of the check down from Brees. The Kamara receptions will be there. 

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25 minutes ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

thoughts on an 8/1 not guilty plea? if so, likely pushes any discipline to 2023.

1,000,000,000% certain not guilty plea, delaying that phase of this fustercluck quite a bit ... one caveat, tho - if that vid is leaked, ol' AK is gonna be on the Shield's carpet toot sweet. 

beating-up-beat-up.gif

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7 minutes ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

been leaked for quite some time my guy

go back to my earlier post where i dropped the Drew Davenport tweet on this affair - the vid has been seen, briefly, but was not hugely consumed on teh social mediaz - it disappeared.

now, if it is widely dropped, this is gonna get very urgent for the Shield - and this will change rapidly for AK.  

 

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Is this going to be like the Ray Rice deal, where everyone knew what happened, but then the video was released wide and then everyone pretended like because it was a video it meant something different than when they read what happened in print?

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He just fell to me at pick 41 in my 100 PPR season long email draft. Alot of fear on him right now even if you dont want any he may find himself on your team. Ofc every league is diff but if you're thinking of taking him he may fall further then you expect.

As far as the player himself I think he has one more year left in him. Just gotta dodge the suspension. 

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On 7/25/2022 at 5:51 PM, JE7HorseGod said:

Is this going to be like the Ray Rice deal, where everyone knew what happened, but then the video was released wide and then everyone pretended like because it was a video it meant something different than when they read what happened in print?

Seeing a woman get beat on video is much harder than an instigating man get his a** beat. 

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12 minutes ago, SyNdicateZ said:

Seeing a woman get beat on video is much harder than an instigating man get his a** beat. 

No argument here.  I just know as a society we've become "visually mediumed" and am speculating about the relative impact.

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Doesn't look like there will be a suspension handed down until sometime in December at the earliest(unless he pleads guilty on 10/1), and very easily could get pushed into the offseason. His ADP has risen a little bit since the continuation but I still think he's a value where he's at. I've seen people post that CMC and Henry are worthy of their high ADPs even if they get hurt and only play half the season because they're such elite difference makers. I don't think Kamara is that far off from them assuming Winston stays healthy. It would suck to have a suspension come down right before the fantasy playoffs but I think he's worth the risk, especially at a discount. 

I'm not even sure if the video leaks it would be a big enough deal to make the league move on it faster. It was a dude they attacked in the altercation(BIG difference) and it wasn't just Kamara involved. 

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On 8/1/2022 at 1:40 PM, kball09 said:

Let's assume he plays the entire year. Does he move to the Mixon/Swift tier in PPR or do you group him more with the Jones/Fournette/Williams group? 

 

On 8/1/2022 at 2:16 PM, SyNdicateZ said:

Hea a top 5 rb in ppr. If not top 3...

I'd put him right in that Mixon/Swift category personally. He's not top 3 IMO. He seemed to wear down last year, his YPC was terrible, and he doesn't catch near as many balls with Jameis. 

And I realize you asked a specific hypothetical, but the looming potential suspension is a worry I'd rather not deal with when I could just grab a Mixon/Swift type player. He's worth it over the next tier you mention. 

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He’s way too far down in ADP right now imo. Still a mid 1st easily for me in PPR. He has better weapons around him to draw attention, better QB play and no longer injured. He’s the same player as ekeler to me

Edited by scheibler
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25 minutes ago, Pastor3 said:

the "multiple sources" include AB's smoovie purveyor and Teflon Tomlin's diction coach, but, they are "sources" nonetheless ...

🦉

You don't even need a source to deduce the suspension is more likely to occur in 2023, if you just map out the timeline using reasonable expectations for how slow the legal process works

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6 minutes ago, owenmills said:

You don't even need a source to deduce the suspension is more likely to occur in 2023, if you just map out the timeline using reasonable expectations for how slow the legal process works

 

yeah, i already deducted as such 4 weeks ago - predicted it righ' chere in this thread (to pushback, of course).

also drafted him in the 2nd rd of the Roto master chef leeg in early July

i was always hep, baby. 

🐪

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I'm willing to take this gamble.

I'm not going to grandstand it or give any stats about it.  Just the very simple fact, that assuming no suspension I have him ranked as RB6.  My first money draft is this weekend, I draft from the 9 spot.  I won't take him at 9, but if he's there in the 2nd I'm in board.  The only 2 players that would make me hesitate, which I'll need to pin down, are Swift, and Diggs.

I'll take Kamara over Lamb, Kelce, Adams, Tyreek, Chubb, and Jones without hesitation.

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4 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

I'm willing to take this gamble.

I'm not going to grandstand it or give any stats about it.  Just the very simple fact, that assuming no suspension I have him ranked as RB6.  My first money draft is this weekend, I draft from the 9 spot.  I won't take him at 9, but if he's there in the 2nd I'm in board.  The only 2 players that would make me hesitate, which I'll need to pin down, are Swift, and Diggs.

I'll take Kamara over Lamb, Kelce, Adams, Tyreek, Chubb, and Jones without hesitation.

I think this is where I'm at as well. I think I'd take him over Swift but not Diggs...

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4 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

I'm willing to take this gamble.

I'm not going to grandstand it or give any stats about it.  Just the very simple fact, that assuming no suspension I have him ranked as RB6.  My first money draft is this weekend, I draft from the 9 spot.  I won't take him at 9, but if he's there in the 2nd I'm in board.  The only 2 players that would make me hesitate, which I'll need to pin down, are Swift, and Diggs.

I'll take Kamara over Lamb, Kelce, Adams, Tyreek, Chubb, and Jones without hesitation.

12 or 14 teems?

i'll assume you're drafting with savvy chaps ... if it is 14, i doubt he makes it back to rd 2. 

12 teems may be a tad more pliable, but, again ... if this news picks up legs, i can't see him making it too far into round 2.  

where are you aiming at 1.09?

 

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