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Baker Mayfield 2022 Outlook


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  • 2 weeks later...

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/seahawks/seahawks-mailbag-answering-your-questions-on-baker-mayfield-pete-carroll-and-more/

There have been conflicting reports on whether the Seahawks might be interested in trading for Mayfield if Cleveland were to pay a lot of the salary. A report from The Athletic on Friday stated, “The Panthers and Seahawks still haven’t ruled out acquiring Mayfield, but they’ll need the Browns to take on a much greater portion of his contract than they’ve offered so far.”

The guess here is the Seahawks are mostly interested in Mayfield if he is released. But it remains unclear when the Browns will release Mayfield.

(...)

The consensus is that Carolina remains Mayfield’s most likely destination if he is released. The Panthers have twice as much cap space as the Seahawks and have been aggressively pursuing quarterbacks all offseason. The guess here is that the Seahawks wouldn’t get involved in a bidding war for Mayfield.

But if Mayfield is there for the taking, then sure, I can see the Seahawks being interested.

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Seems pretty clear the only teams that would consider starting him are Seattle and Carolina.  There might be a team happy to take him as a backup if he's cut, but that team certainly isn't caring to negotiate with Cleveland for something that trivial.   

 If you're Seattle or Carolina, you know he's not a long term answer.  Why give up a draft pick to raise your expected win total (at most) by a game or two.  Ooh, maybe tie for 11th in the conference now!  

I also wonder what's better for Baker's future prospects here.  He absolutely is done if he lands somewhere, starts, and bombs.   Seattle added some weaponry and young linemen so he can't blame anyone there IMO for a total flop.   Maybe he's better off just collecting a check, staying in shape, playing the "I,'m fully h, ealthy in 2023" card and hopefully getting a seat warmer gig a la Mariota

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I think he ends up in Seattle because they need someone and the 49ers probably do not want to send Jimmy G to Seattle. Eventually the Browns will drop the **** and bite the bullet. I think they're just hoping for someone to get hurt so they can find a little leverage to save a little money now that they gave $250M to their starting sex offender err I mean QB.

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On 5/23/2022 at 12:27 AM, Boudewijn said:

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/seahawks/seahawks-mailbag-answering-your-questions-on-baker-mayfield-pete-carroll-and-more/

There have been conflicting reports on whether the Seahawks might be interested in trading for Mayfield if Cleveland were to pay a lot of the salary. A report from The Athletic on Friday stated, “The Panthers and Seahawks still haven’t ruled out acquiring Mayfield, but they’ll need the Browns to take on a much greater portion of his contract than they’ve offered so far.”

The guess here is the Seahawks are mostly interested in Mayfield if he is released. But it remains unclear when the Browns will release Mayfield.

(...)

The consensus is that Carolina remains Mayfield’s most likely destination if he is released. The Panthers have twice as much cap space as the Seahawks and have been aggressively pursuing quarterbacks all offseason. The guess here is that the Seahawks wouldn’t get involved in a bidding war for Mayfield.

But if Mayfield is there for the taking, then sure, I can see the Seahawks being interested.

no room on the roster for mayfield: pete carroll has his veteran QB in geno smith, and geno's ball fondling is legendary

giphy.gif?cid=6c09b95279237dffc45d16409f

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3 hours ago, Sack Exchange said:

no room on the roster for mayfield: pete carroll has his veteran QB in geno smith, and geno's ball fondling is legendary

giphy.gif?cid=6c09b95279237dffc45d16409f

Maybe he finally has all the Jets taint out of his system. 

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3 hours ago, Spyplane said:

Maybe he finally has all the Jets taint out of his system. 

Nah. You can take the player out of the Jets, but you can't take the Jets out of the player. He's doomed.

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On 5/22/2022 at 9:49 PM, jharv2k1 said:

I’m NOT a Baker Mayfield fan at all and never have been but I can say he’s a upgrade for a few of these teams out here.. 

For like the 5th time:

An upgrade that takes you from 5-10 to 8-9 isn’t worth it. The only thing it gets you is a worse draft spot. Baker had arguably a top 3 roster in the league and still couldn’t win. 

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  • 4 weeks later...
8 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I think at this point the entire NFL is just trolling @Gohawks.

I’m done with this ******** team at this stage.

At least they didn’t f--- up the draft.

I can’t think of a QB thats more unappealing than Baker. I’m trying but I can’t.

If it’s like a 6th round pick AND the Browns take most of the salary I guess it’s alright SOMEWHAT. But I don’t like it. 

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18 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I can’t think of a QB thats more unappealing than Baker. I’m trying but I can’t.

I assume you mean starters, technically Nathan Peterman is still a QB in the NFL.

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1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I assume you mean starters, technically Nathan Peterman is still a QB in the NFL.

No I mean exactly what I said. I genuinely cannot think of a single QB I would like less than Mayfield.

At least with Peterman they go like 2-15 and lock up one of the 2 elite QB prospects. With Baker I have to watch them go 7-10 or 8-9 and land a pick outside the top 10 while having the ceiling of losing by 20 in the wild card.

Again, dude had a top 3 situation in the league. Top 3 line, elite defense, the best RB duo in the league, and great WR weapons. Still were never contenders. What makes people think he can make Seattle remotely relevant with an extremely young line, mediocre defense, and uncertainty in the run game? He will bring a few more useless wins that kill their draft spot. That’s it.

Don’t get me started on the film of him consistently missing Odell and what that does to DKs outlook. I genuinely think Lock is better for his fantasy value. 

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Just now, Gohawks said:

At least with Peterman they go like 2-15 and lock up one of the 2 elite QB prospects. With Baker I have to watch them go 7-10 or 8-9 and land a pick outside the top 10 while having the ceiling of losing by 20 in the wild card.

Ah, so in other words, what is personally most unappealing to you is having a guy who is average at QB as opposed to terrible, who leads the team to an average record.  That makes sense.  Baker is very average.

Personally, I think his ceiling is Alex Smith.  Like if you had a team full of all stars you could probably get to the conference championship.

The problem with Seattle is that they struggle in a lot of areas outside of WR.  Doing a nuke and a full rebuild probably does make more sense than trying to float along with average at the position, that makes sense.

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1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Personally, I think his ceiling is Alex Smith.  

That's an insult to Alex Smith.

Alex Smith has been to the playoffs 7 times and actually knows what it feels like to win one of them.  That's 2 things I assume Baker will never achieve.

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26 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

That's an insult to Alex Smith.

Alex Smith has been to the playoffs 7 times and actually knows what it feels like to win one of them.  That's 2 things I assume Baker will never achieve.

Baker's only 27.  He seems to me like an adequate caretaker who is capable of accomplishing the whole "don't lose a game" shtick Smith perfected if he played for a team as good as THOSE 49ers or Chiefs.

The Browns basically gave him one mostly competent team in 2020 and then last year were beset by injuries.

People hated on Smith too for being the number one pick and not being Aaron Rodgers.  It's only now that he seems to have more defenders.

I'm not saying Mayfield's career will necessarily bear similar results to Smith's, I am saying if you put him in the perfect situation his ceiling would produce similar results.

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26 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Baker's only 27.  He seems to me like an adequate caretaker who is capable of accomplishing the whole "don't lose a game" shtick Smith perfected if he played for a team as good as THOSE 49ers or Chiefs.

The Browns basically gave him one mostly competent team in 2020 and then last year were beset by injuries.

People hated on Smith too for being the number one pick and not being Aaron Rodgers.  It's only now that he seems to have more defenders.

I'm not saying Mayfield's career will necessarily bear similar results to Smith's, I am saying if you put him in the perfect situation his ceiling would produce similar results.

And what I'm saying, is he already had the perfect scenario, failed to even approach that ceiling, and he will never, ever get a situation close to as good, so his career path is essentially destined for mediocrity, if he's lucky enough to stay in the league.  He's 1 or 2 years away from being out of the NFL if he doesn't make a career altering detour with his play or personality, if not both.

He had the perfect scenario, he failed to be Alex Smith.  It's all downhill from here, so I simply disagree with you about this hypothetical ceiling, existing, because there's not a situation that would enable it.

He'll never be Alex Smith in Seattle, or Carolina, obviously not Cleveland and no one else wants him.  What is the path to this fairy tale situation you think could justify this hypothetical ceiling you speak of?

Unless we want to talk about Brady, Stafford, Allen, or Mahomes going down before week 1, and any of those teams being dumb enough to trade for Baker.  Even then, I genuinely don't believe Baker could take any of them to the playoffs.

I'm not defending Alex Smith, when I say that Baker isn't as good as Alex Smith.

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21 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

And what I'm saying, is he already had the perfect scenario, failed to even approach that ceiling, and he will never, ever get a situation close to as good, so his career path is essentially destined for mediocrity, if he's lucky enough to stay in the league.  He's 1 or 2 years away from being out of the NFL if he doesn't make a career altering detour with his play or personality, if not both.

He had the perfect scenario, he failed to be Alex Smith.  It's all downhill from here, so I simply disagree with you about this hypothetical ceiling, existing, because there's not a situation that would enable it.

He'll never be Alex Smith in Seattle, or Carolina, obviously not Cleveland and no one else wants him.  What is the path to this fairy tale situation you think could justify this hypothetical ceiling you speak of?

Unless we want to talk about Brady, Stafford, Allen, or Mahomes going down before week 1, and any of those teams being dumb enough to trade for Baker.  Even then, I genuinely don't believe Baker could take any of them to the playoffs.

I'm not defending Alex Smith, when I say that Baker isn't as good as Alex Smith.

I don't know if I'd call the 2020 Cleveland Browns sans the QB position "the perfect scenario."  They had a phenomenal running game.  The defense wasn't perfect, not as good as say, the 2011 49ers. 

They were good.  I think it wouldn't be hard to argue that Smith played with better teams.

I feel like you're ignoring the context of the sentence that you are taking issue with, in particular the sentence immediately following it.

I get it, you think that Alex Smith had a better career than you think Mayfield will have.  But the original context was ceilings, which is why I said immediately following the sentence you quoted, "Like if you had a team full of all stars you could probably get to the conference championship."

Do you really think that would be impossible for Baker?  Not that if you did either of us could empirically prove our point, but in your gut, there's no chance?

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49 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

And what I'm saying, is he already had the perfect scenario, failed to even approach that ceiling

He had the perfect scenario, he failed to be Alex Smith.

Mayfield never had the perfect scenario.  The perfect scenario is a QB age 27-32 surrounded by great talent and with great coaching.

  • Year 1 - He's a rookie, which is nearly impossible for a QB, but plays very well for a rookie.
  • Year 2 - He's a young QB learning the game and with no stature or standing in the locker room, and he has to deal with a massive diva at WR.  That's a nightmare scenario.
  • Year 3 - After Beckham gets injured, Mayfield plays at a near Pro Bowl level despite weak WRs but with a great OL and RBs.
  • Year 4 - He plays through crippling injuries.
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41 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Do you really think that would be impossible for Baker?  Not that if you did either of us could empirically prove our point, but in your gut, there's no chance?

I just want to make sure I understand your standpoint on Baker.

You believe, that if we gave him every Pro-Bowl player in the entire league, that his absolute ceiling, could maybe match... Alex Smith.

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6 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

I just want to make sure I understand your standpoint on Baker.

You believe, that if we gave him every Pro-Bowl player in the entire league, that his absolute ceiling, could maybe match... Alex Smith.

You Played Yourself GIFs - Get the best GIF on GIPHY

LOL you're so literal sometimes my friend.  "A team full of all stars" was a turn of phrase.

If you insist, I'd say if you put him on the 2011 49ers I think Baker could reach the Conference Championship game...like Alex Smith.  That's his ceiling.

Nothing much more to what I said than that.  Wasn't meant to be thought provoking analysis and if you think that is defaming Alex Smith or falsely propogating Mayfield to some degree you want to prove empirically then that is cool too I guess, I won't argue.

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So this is an anti-tank move.   Commendable on one hand, short sighted on the other.   

If they are dead set on a new 2023 QB,  planning to see what their younger players can do at the expense of vets, and willing to part with a couple guys midseason if there's trade interest, then this is fine. 

If they think they're chasing a playoff spot, or there's a scenario in which a surprise near .500 season leads them to extend Baker and try again.......no, no no no

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16 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I don't know if I'd call the 2020 Cleveland Browns sans the QB position "the perfect scenario."  They had a phenomenal running game.  The defense wasn't perfect, not as good as say, the 2011 49ers. 

They were good.  I think it wouldn't be hard to argue that Smith played with better teams.

I feel like you're ignoring the context of the sentence that you are taking issue with, in particular the sentence immediately following it.

I get it, you think that Alex Smith had a better career than you think Mayfield will have.  But the original context was ceilings, which is why I said immediately following the sentence you quoted, "Like if you had a team full of all stars you could probably get to the conference championship."

Do you really think that would be impossible for Baker?  Not that if you did either of us could empirically prove our point, but in your gut, there's no chance?

1. Top 3 run game in the NFL

2. Solid defense

3. The best offensive line in the entire NFL

4. Elite weapons. Yes I say elite. Landry, Odell, Hunt, and Chubb is elite.

The defense was serviceable but the offense was absolutely loaded. I can’t point at a single offense from 2020 and say it was definitely better than what Baker had to work with. 

 

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24 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

1. Top 3 run game in the NFL

2. Solid defense

3. The best offensive line in the entire NFL

4. Elite weapons. Yes I say elite. Landry, Odell, Hunt, and Chubb is elite.

The defense was serviceable but the offense was absolutely loaded. I can’t point at a single offense from 2020 and say it was definitely better than what Baker had to work with. 

 

1.) No argument, that's why I mentioned it.

2.) "Solid" is pretty subjective.  Statistically they allowed 26.2 points per game good for 21st in the league.  If you're not into that because sometimes offense has turnovers which allows points (they were 4th best in the league in giveaways at 1 per game, but just for the sake of argument) they were also 26th in defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders.  I don't think they were very good.  They certainly weren't in smelling distance of the 2011 49ers, which was the original object of my Smith comparison is saying "Baker's ceiling is he could make the Conference Championship Game" with a great team like Smith did.

3.) PFF had them 5th best.  https://factoryofsadness.co/2022/01/20/the-browns-offensive-line-drops-three-spots-from-2020/  Primarily because of their run blocking (see #1).  They weren't bad at pass blocking, but "best offensive line in the entire NFL" no.  I'm going to need to check your math there in order to agree with that.

4.) Beckham played 7 games.  We already covered Hunt and Chubb, and as we all know since we play fantasy, Chubb didn't catch passes that year.  Basically in terms of recieving weapons he got a year of Landry and Hunt and Austin Hooper and half of year of Beckham, and they very publicly did not click when he was healthy, blame who you like on that.  The 1999 Rams they were not.

If you think Baker is a middling quarterback whose ceiling is a game manager, I won't argue, that's in fact what I am saying.

But if you want to say that the 2020 Browns were as good as anything Alex Smith played with, as in the 2011 49ers, and hence my comparison is somehow faulty, I'm going to need to see a little more evidence than your adjectives like "solid" defenses and "elite" weapons in order to be convinced.

Edited by JE7HorseGod
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