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Ranger Suarez 2022 Outlook


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Whenever the "Lone Ranger" comes riding into Phillies camp once he secures his visa, he'll slot in behind Wheeler and Nola in a decent Phillies rotation alongside Kyle Gibson, and he's kind of a forgotten man from what I've seen in the early going of drafts,. The slight delay to the start of his season shouldn't really be a big deal, as he was likely going to be innings capped around 150-160 to begin with, so he's a guy I'm willing to scoop up to fill out my staff in late rounds. His stock may fall a bit with this news, and that SP/RP designation is a nice bonus in some leagues.

I thought about adding a GIF from "Lone Ranger", but the images of Armie Hammer and Johnny Depp are so cringe-inducing now, and the fact the original Tonto is slightly less offensive than either guy is astonishing to me. That's the problem with Suarez, too, I suppose-he showed a lot of heart last year and its tempting to think he can string together another Cinderella year, but the Phillies bullpen and Joe Girardi threaten to cannibalize several of his W chances over the course of the season. Last year he came to their rescue many times, like Tonto always did, but now he's the middle man in a rotation in need of a steady presence, especially if Nola shows the same inconsistency in 2022. It might be asking a bit much for a guy with just 173 career innings (106 in 2021) and he certainly won't repeat his absurd 1.36 ERA, but he's got a lot of room for regression to still be a useful fantasy pitcher.

Edited by Richard Kimble
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I find it comical that his ADP is dropping because he might be a week or two behind to start the season. He only threw 106 innings last year. Were people expecting 225 innings out of him this year? Dumb. Thank you for the discount.

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3 hours ago, meh2 said:

I find it comical that his ADP is dropping because he might be a week or two behind to start the season. He only threw 106 innings last year. Were people expecting 225 innings out of him this year? Dumb. Thank you for the discount.

I agree, it seems like people were looking for any excuse to avoid him. Why? He passed every test with flying colors last year, and even though the ERA was a major outlier and is unsustainable, as I said, he can regress 2 full earned runs and be a very good pitcher. Everyone is off to a slow start anyway, and he's a guy you can take as your 5th starter in most leagues, great value.

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NL league prices: LABR $12 & Tout $11.  I think that's low but I was able to get him for $10 in my 12-team NL so the market is not feeling much hype.

On the MLB Network top 10 starting pitchers right now show for 2022, guest Bill James put him 10th, predicting a great season.

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, EWV1 said:

NL league prices: LABR $12 & Tout $11.  I think that's low but I was able to get him for $10 in my 12-team NL so the market is not feeling much hype.

On the MLB Network top 10 starting pitchers right now show for 2022, guest Bill James put him 10th, predicting a great season.

I've seen a few rankings suggest he's a $15-19 pitcher in 12 team mixed, so some experts have dug deeper into him and apparently think he's primed for a good follow-up. I just hate that defense behind him with a passion, but I'm still going to go the extra buck to get him wherever I can. I would be thrilled to roster him for that price in an NL only, you got a steal there. FWIW he has reported to camp. The article notes that last season, Suarez "became the first pitcher since Bob Gibson in 1968 with a sub-1.50 ERA in 100 or more innings, including at least 10 starts." Anytime a player in any sport is mentioned next to an all-time great like that, I take notice. 

Edited by Richard Kimble
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On 3/18/2022 at 11:21 PM, Richard Kimble said:

I agree, it seems like people were looking for any excuse to avoid him. Why? He passed every test with flying colors last year, and even though the ERA was a major outlier and is unsustainable, as I said, he can regress 2 full earned runs and be a very good pitcher. Everyone is off to a slow start anyway, and he's a guy you can take as your 5th starter in most leagues, great value.

I avoiding all Phillies pitchers simply because of the horriable defense they will field. Yes they might get run support help from a stacked hitting line up but the Defense will cause their pitchers to have to get more then 3 outs in some innings a lot making their outtings shorter due to racking up the pitch count. Phillies pitchers will be lucky to ever complete 6 full innings of work on game to game bases

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39 minutes ago, mks said:

I avoiding all Phillies pitchers simply because of the horriable defense they will field. Yes they might get run support help from a stacked hitting line up but the Defense will cause their pitchers to have to get more then 3 outs in some innings a lot making their outtings shorter due to racking up the pitch count. Phillies pitchers will be lucky to ever complete 6 full innings of work on game to game bases

I get it, but Suarez is a super cheap discount, you'd be wise to exclude him from this rule. I agree on Wheeler and Nola-this scares me away from them at their price. In the case of Nola, I remember that last year he was trying to strike everyone out, fearing having a ball put into play for his defense. I think the same was true for Luis Castillo last year, too, when the Reds tried Eugenio Suarez at short; of course his season turned around when they ended that experiment. So yes, a bad defense can impact a pitcher; but I'd still rather have a pitcher with a bad defense, on a good offense and good team, than a pitcher on a crappy team, with a terrible offense and a good defense. It matters a lot for W projections. 6 innings isn't really a thing anymore anyway.

Just as a reference, though, if you're curious if a team like the Phillies can win, its been done, as this article points to the recent 2013-14 Tigers team (coincidentally also constructed by GM Dave Dombrowski). They had a similar template of an offense of mashers, some ace pitchers and a fire-power bullpen to overcome their defensive deficiencies. It could work in Philly, too, and while they don't have as strong of a staff as that Tigers team that had peak Verlander and Scherzer, its not a bad position to be in for this year. I absolutely love Suarez at his price compared to their other pitchers. 

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6 hours ago, Richard Kimble said:

I get it, but Suarez is a super cheap discount, you'd be wise to exclude him from this rule. I agree on Wheeler and Nola-this scares me away from them at their price. In the case of Nola, I remember that last year he was trying to strike everyone out, fearing having a ball put into play for his defense. I think the same was true for Luis Castillo last year, too, when the Reds tried Eugenio Suarez at short; of course his season turned around when they ended that experiment. So yes, a bad defense can impact a pitcher; but I'd still rather have a pitcher with a bad defense, on a good offense and good team, than a pitcher on a crappy team, with a terrible offense and a good defense. It matters a lot for W projections. 6 innings isn't really a thing anymore anyway.

Just as a reference, though, if you're curious if a team like the Phillies can win, its been done, as this article points to the recent 2013-14 Tigers team (coincidentally also constructed by GM Dave Dombrowski). They had a similar template of an offense of mashers, some ace pitchers and a fire-power bullpen to overcome their defensive deficiencies. It could work in Philly, too, and while they don't have as strong of a staff as that Tigers team that had peak Verlander and Scherzer, its not a bad position to be in for this year. I absolutely love Suarez at his price compared to their other pitchers. 

Well your pitcher still needs to get in 5 full innings for a win and most times the young guys are on a 85-90 pitch count and they seem to always run that up quick due to not being able to throw strikes and having deep counts every batter. Then they are pulled out with the dreaded 4.2 inns

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4 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Sounds reasonable. How often do starters have more W's than QS though?

He could bang out some 5 inning wins since the Phillies will mash (and outpace their bullpen ERA).  But he is pretty efficient so I am betting on many QS and the over on 145 IP.

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 4 weeks later...

So...this guy has not looked very good.  Very hittable again last night, 26% CSW with only 5 whiffs, gave up a couple of homers.  Lots of walks so far and hasn't topped 4 Ks in a start yet.  His sink/change/4-seam compared to 2021 are all under-performing and with a lower whiff rate, and the velocity is down a few MPH on his slider.  What's the appeal in holding here?  Was the 8-start run to close 2021 a fluke?

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Just now, Yceman1234 said:

So...this guy has not looked very good.  Very hittable again last night, 26% CSW with only 5 whiffs, gave up a couple of homers.  Lots of walks so far and hasn't topped 4 Ks in a start yet.  His sink/change/4-seam compared to 2021 are all under-performing and with a lower whiff rate, and the velocity is down a few MPH on his slider.  What's the appeal in holding here?  Was the 8-start run to close 2021 a fluke?

Wondering the same.

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7 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

I guess the bright side is as bad as he’s looked, his ERA is still in the mid 4s. But yea, not encouraged so far.

True, but the Mets and @Dodgers look to be up next so that ERA could be climbing out of the 4+ range real soon if he doesn't figure it out.  Not looking good for the lone Ranger..

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I can't blame anyone for moving onto greener pastures. I mean, I don't believe Chad Kuhl is a better value, for example, it really depends on who you're eyeing as a replacement. As mentioned, the upcoming starts against the Mets and Dodgers are hard to trot him out for. The other takeaway that I have from last night is that the Phillies defense is terrible, as predicted, and is going to cost Ranger and their other starters some wins, and make them work harder for extra outs. Its not a great combination when you don't consider Ranger a high-K pitcher to begin with.

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Posted (edited)

Damn, I still have a glimmer of hope but it's fading quickly. I couldn't help myself in drafting him seeing at 1ish ERA last year with over 100 innings pitched.

Those types of guys usually work out the next year.

Edited by hangin n wangin
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