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Courtland Sutton 2022 Outlook


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51 minutes ago, MingusDew said:

I like Sutton but this feels extremely ambitious. I think the TD number is right the but the receptions and yardage might be lower. 

Oof I just looked at DKs stats and I think your right. I thought DK went for 1400-10-90 in 16 games and Wilson was cooking for only 8 weeks. I thought 1300 and 85 in 17 games with Wilson cooking all year was pretty reasonable. But maybe I was a touch over zealous 

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27 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Oof I just looked at DKs stats and I think your right. I thought DK went for 1400-10-90 in 16 games and Wilson was cooking for only 8 weeks. I thought 1300 and 85 in 17 games with Wilson cooking all year was pretty reasonable. But maybe I was a touch over zealous 

I like where your head is at and I’m a Sutton fan this year.

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2 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

He’s gonna be like DK.. 1300-10-85.. maybe more not because he’s better than DK but because Denver will let Russ cook all year thus more attempts. 

I got him around 75-1100-8. I hope you’re right though 

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Sutton has size, but I don’t recall him being a burner like DK. Is Sutton going to be able to separate part defenders for a wide open deep ball like DK did for Wilson? Or is every deep shot to Sutton going to be contested? Sutton can certainly win contested catches but obviously they won’t go for TDs as often.

We know Jeudy has elite separation skills and 4.4 speed. Any reason  Jeudy won’t be on the receiving end if Wilson’s deep shots?

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1 minute ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Sutton has size, but I don’t recall him being a burner like DK. Is Sutton going to be able to separate part defenders for a wide open deep ball like DK did for Wilson? Or is every deep shot to Sutton going to be contested? Sutton can certainly win contested catches but obviously they won’t go for TDs as often.

We know Jeudy has elite separation skills and 4.4 speed. Any reason  Jeudy won’t be on the receiving end if Wilson’s deep shots?

I reckon I assumed jeudy would be the Tyler locket of the two who went for 90-1050-10 which included several deep shots. I was figuring jeudy to be around 90-1100-8 but I apparently have much more confidence in Wilson than most 

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5 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Sutton has size, but I don’t recall him being a burner like DK. Is Sutton going to be able to separate part defenders for a wide open deep ball like DK did for Wilson? Or is every deep shot to Sutton going to be contested? Sutton can certainly win contested catches but obviously they won’t go for TDs as often.

We know Jeudy has elite separation skills and 4.4 speed. Any reason  Jeudy won’t be on the receiving end if Wilson’s deep shots?

You can look at their respective highlights to see what they do well.  Jeudy's better at intermediate route running, YAC, etc Sutton has a higher vertical, wins jump balls downfield.

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16 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

You can look at their respective highlights to see what they do well.  Jeudy's better at intermediate route running, YAC, etc Sutton has a higher vertical, wins jump balls downfield.

I get that, but part of usage is determined by  scheme and personnel. Jeudy may have been used primarily on intermediate routes in the old offensive system with those QBs, but I think he’ll be used all over the field in the new system with Wilson.
 

Essentially, I think this whole Sutton= DK and Jeudy = Lockett is kinda silly. Both WRs will be used in many ways all over the field. Both will be on the receiving end of Wilson’s deep ball. Wilson is going to love Jeudy’s speed and ability to separate, and Sutton’s ability to win jump balls. 

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16 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

You can look at their respective highlights to see what they do well.  Jeudy's better at intermediate route running, YAC, etc Sutton has a higher vertical, wins jump balls downfield.

I get that, but part of usage is determined by  scheme and personnel. Jeudy may have been used primarily on intermediate routes in the old offensive system with those QBs, but I think he’ll be used all over the field in the new system with Wilson.
 

Essentially, I think this whole Sutton= DK and Jeudy = Lockett is kinda silly. Both WRs will be used in many ways all over the field. Both will be on the receiving end of Wilson’s deep ball. Wilson is going to love Jeudy’s speed and ability to separate, and Sutton’s ability to win jump balls. 

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15 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

I get that, but part of usage is determined by  scheme and personnel. Jeudy may have been used primarily on intermediate routes in the old offensive system with those QBs, but I think he’ll be used all over the field in the new system with Wilson.
 

Essentially, I think this whole Sutton= DK and Jeudy = Lockett is kinda silly. Both WRs will be used in many ways all over the field. Both will be on the receiving end of Wilson’s deep ball. Wilson is going to love Jeudy’s speed and ability to separate, and Sutton’s ability to win jump balls. 

I get it, you like Jeudy, you think he's going to do well, that's cool.  I don't know how it's going to turn out.  I know what positions they are probably going to play and how they've been used in the past.  A lot of the box score production is going to depend on the matchup, as it did in Seattle, as it does in Tampa.

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Between Sutton and Jeudy I like the one that costs less. I'll have both players in my queue because I think both of them (for the moment) are rock solid at their ADP. 

Just one mans approach, though. I appreciate those who try to predict who will be better. 

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3 hours ago, roscobangs said:

Between Sutton and Jeudy I like the one that costs less. I'll have both players in my queue because I think both of them (for the moment) are rock solid at their ADP. 

Just one mans approach, though. I appreciate those who try to predict who will be better. 

This is probably the smarter way to go about it. But imma Sutton man 

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On 8/14/2022 at 1:08 PM, affliction said:

I got him around 75-1100-8. I hope you’re right though 

I'm admittedly (perhaps too) high on him, but if he stays healthy this is his floor IMO. I know it sounds crazy but he is a phenomenal talent and Wilson is still very capable. 

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Out of the 2, and according to a local I know, it sounds like Sutton is the favorite.

That being said, who knows what RW is thinking.  He's gonna find his guy and maybe, or maybe not, pepper his guy.

It will be fun to watch and it will likely break some hearts.  That's Fantasy Football.

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I like Sutton, but I really feel like Russ is being severely undervalued this year, he's not my snake target, but he is my auction target, just due to the way the math works out.

I think all the debate over Sutton vs Juedy is going to be futile.  I prefer Sutton, but both should be fine.  Russ made 2 WRs top 20 for years without hesitation, I don't particularly expect anything different this year.  And I still like Albert O as a late round flier, I've been grabbing him late as a backup in case Waller's injury is more of an issue than they're letting on.

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5 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

I like Sutton, but I really feel like Russ is being severely undervalued this year, he's not my snake target, but he is my auction target, just due to the way the math works out.

 

Can you please explain how the math works out? I’m obviously incredibly high in Russ as well.. probably to high.. 

and you’re right about the WR debate. I like Sutton more just because that’s my preference but they’re will be games Sutton has 150 yards and 2 TDS and others where he has 25 yards and jeudy has 165 yards. 

 

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7 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

I think all the debate over Sutton vs Juedy is going to be futile.  I prefer Sutton, but both should be fine.  Russ made 2 WRs top 20 for years without hesitation, I don't particularly expect anything different this year.

Yeah that's where I am at as well.  Their ADPs are starting to creep into a range where they are comparable too, FFC has Jeudy higher, underdog is showing Sutton by about 10 spots, etc.  It may depend on your draft room who goes first.

Who knows?  Maybe going RB/TE heavy early and stacking both with Wilson could be a great move.

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50 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Yeah that's where I am at as well.  Their ADPs are starting to creep into a range where they are comparable too, FFC has Jeudy higher, underdog is showing Sutton by about 10 spots, etc.  It may depend on your draft room who goes first.

Who knows?  Maybe going RB/TE heavy early and stacking both with Wilson could be a great move.

I swear you’re reading my mind

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1 hour ago, Stonej14 said:

Can you please explain how the math works out? I’m obviously incredibly high in Russ as well.. probably to high.. 

and you’re right about the WR debate. I like Sutton more just because that’s my preference but they’re will be games Sutton has 150 yards and 2 TDS and others where he has 25 yards and jeudy has 165 yards. 

 

Um, without math and complicating it... In snakes all players of a single round have an equal price.

In auctions, this is not the case.

Therefore Wilson's auction price is actually cheaper than his snake price.  Because of that, I'm not overly interested in him in snakes, but I think he's a crazy value in auctions.

On top of that you can compound human nature and the way prices fall during a draft, and that in auctions people value dollars equally throughout the entire draft, whereas in a snake, people devalue to later rounds.  So $4 for a backup QB is insanity when that's the same price as a sleeper WR\RB someone loves.  Additionally the later a QBs ADP in an auction the more likely you are to have less competition bidding.  AND, due to the nomination factor, you can actually force QBs off the board quicker, if they are part of your budget strategy.  Say hypothetically I want Russ, and he was the key focus of mine, or whatever.  I'll nominate as many QBs with ADPs LOWER than his, to decrease the competition for Russ.  Usually focusing on the hype players, to fill as many teams up with a QB before mine comes up for nomination.

My nomination strategy is usually 100% QB and TE nominations until the risk of getting stuck with your nomination comes into play.

I just did my home snake league draft Sunday.  My auction league draft is this Saturday.  I'll have the auction tool I do each year posted tonight or tomorrow for price and nomination exploitation.

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39 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Um, without math and complicating it... In snakes all players of a single round have an equal price.

In auctions, this is not the case.

Therefore Wilson's auction price is actually cheaper than his snake price.  Because of that, I'm not overly interested in him in snakes, but I think he's a crazy value in auctions.

On top of that you can compound human nature and the way prices fall during a draft, and that in auctions people value dollars equally throughout the entire draft, whereas in a snake, people devalue to later rounds.  So $4 for a backup QB is insanity when that's the same price as a sleeper WR\RB someone loves.  Additionally the later a QBs ADP in an auction the more likely you are to have less competition bidding.  AND, due to the nomination factor, you can actually force QBs off the board quicker, if they are part of your budget strategy.  Say hypothetically I want Russ, and he was the key focus of mine, or whatever.  I'll nominate as many QBs with ADPs LOWER than his, to decrease the competition for Russ.  Usually focusing on the hype players, to fill as many teams up with a QB before mine comes up for nomination.

My nomination strategy is usually 100% QB and TE nominations until the risk of getting stuck with your nomination comes into play.

I just did my home snake league draft Sunday.  My auction league draft is this Saturday.  I'll have the auction tool I do each year posted tonight or tomorrow for price and nomination exploitation.

This level of strategy is why I find Auction leagues infinitely more interesting than snake. Snake your just stuck in a spot and are sometimes forced to reach for folks that won’t come back to you. Auction you can build any team you like with more variables to play around with.

I think before the Patrick injury, I was really worried about Jeudy’s role. I think both are gonna have great seasons, but I’m not too sure there will be as much variance from game to game as Seattle has last year with DK/Lockett. I’m definitely encouraged Russ looks sutton’s way on broken plays / outside the pocket, since that is a big part of Wilson’s game.

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4 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

Um, without math and complicating it... In snakes all players of a single round have an equal price.

In auctions, this is not the case.

Therefore Wilson's auction price is actually cheaper than his snake price.  Because of that, I'm not overly interested in him in snakes, but I think he's a crazy value in auctions.

On top of that you can compound human nature and the way prices fall during a draft, and that in auctions people value dollars equally throughout the entire draft, whereas in a snake, people devalue to later rounds.  So $4 for a backup QB is insanity when that's the same price as a sleeper WR\RB someone loves.  Additionally the later a QBs ADP in an auction the more likely you are to have less competition bidding.  AND, due to the nomination factor, you can actually force QBs off the board quicker, if they are part of your budget strategy.  Say hypothetically I want Russ, and he was the key focus of mine, or whatever.  I'll nominate as many QBs with ADPs LOWER than his, to decrease the competition for Russ.  Usually focusing on the hype players, to fill as many teams up with a QB before mine comes up for nomination.

My nomination strategy is usually 100% QB and TE nominations until the risk of getting stuck with your nomination comes into play.

I just did my home snake league draft Sunday.  My auction league draft is this Saturday.  I'll have the auction tool I do each year posted tonight or tomorrow for price and nomination exploitation.

I do the EXACT same thing in auction it’s bout a 90% chance I’m nominating TE’s and QB’s and WR’s I know I don’t want myself lol All about lowering the competitions $$

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5 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

I'll have the auction tool I do each year posted tonight or tomorrow for price and nomination exploitation.

Where will this be posted?

Also, I’ve gone back and forth on of I want my guys nominated first or wait as long as possible, like you mention. I haven’t been able to come up with any objective way to be able to figure out what’s more beneficial (though I haven’t workshopped too much).

I have observed you definitely don’t want you guy thrown out a tier or 2 (or more) above where the current level of players available are. People have hat wallets at that point and if it’s someone they like, they are willing to throw out a few extra dollars than they would be when the dollars are squeezed a little more. 

So throwing out guys you don’t like ahead of current value of players I think is a solid strategy.

But to me it also seems to hurt when your target is the last of the tier also and people are afraid to miss out and bid up due to fomo. Also really hurts when they are clearly some of the best players available when you are approaching the 1-2$ bargain bin portion of the draft because there are always a player or 2 that wants the deals but waits too long and then just bids up to whatever it takes to get the last best players. 

I guess the caveat is always it depends on the leaguemates. 

But if you have any thoughts or input on the above, I would appreciate

As far as Sutton, Im a big fan and I’ve ended up with a lot of RW shares, so Sutton has been a great stack target for me.

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