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Courtland Sutton 2022 Outlook


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1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

If he is, it's not by much considering he's been in the league 7 years longer.

In fact Hurts was younger last season than Tannehill was when he was drafted.

I don't know what Hurts's career arc looks like but it's not difficult to imagine a better season for him this year than most of Tannehill's seasons, at least.

Idk tannehil is pretty underrated imo. Every year he’s played a full season he had more passing yards than hurts last year. In 5 of his 6 seasons of 16 starts he passed for more than 3500 yards and over 20 TDS the only year he didn’t was his rookie year. Maybe hurts improves past this but idk.. he just doesn’t seem like a starting NFL caliber QB imo. 

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Just now, Stonej14 said:

Idk tannehil is pretty underrated imo. Every year he’s played a full season he had more passing yards than hurts last year. In 5 of his 6 seasons of 16 starts he passed for more than 3500 yards and over 20 TDS the only year he didn’t was his rookie year. Maybe hurts improves past this but idk.. he just doesn’t seem like a starting NFL caliber QB imo. 

The difference between them last year was marginal and Tannehill is 9 years older than Hurts.

I think it's silly to look at a 23 year old quarterback and compare him to a 33 year old one and say "These players are exactly where they will be, I can compare them evenly."

Like not only are we not talking the Tennessee days when Tannehill was Hurts's age, we're not even talking the 6 years he spent in Miami, where he barely hung on to an NFL gig.  He was at Texas A&M at this point in his career.

It just seems like you're kind of biased against Hurts.  I don't know what he'll be as a pro passer, maybe this is who he is, but it's too early to tell.

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1 hour ago, JacobThunder15 said:

But AJ is a 10x better receiver than Sutton, and Sutton is coming back from an ACL... Hurts and Aj Brown go hand in hand. Luckily Russ is an elite option, but Sutton isnt this superstar WR or anything. His press v man separation percentage is pretty low for an X receiver. AJ Brown ranks top 10 in both beating man and zone, and is a YAC machine. The only reason youre drafting Sutton over AJ here is because of the offense he's on and thats about it

Idk about 10x better than Sutton but sure he’s probably better by a wide margin. But idc about that I want who is gonna score more points and ya the situation matters more sometimes. DJ Moore is probably a top 10 talent playing WR but he was outscored by Hunter renfrow last year. Which one would you have wanted? 
 

Is kupp the greatest WR to ever play football? No but you get the right situation and he sure looked like it.

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15 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Idk about 10x better than Sutton but sure he’s probably better by a wide margin. But idc about that I want who is gonna score more points and ya the situation matters more sometimes. DJ Moore is probably a top 10 talent playing WR but he was outscored by Hunter renfrow last year. Which one would you have wanted? 
 

Is kupp the greatest WR to ever play football? No but you get the right situation and he sure looked like it.

Why you gotta throw shade at Hunter like that? 

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15 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

The difference between them last year was marginal and Tannehill is 9 years older than Hurts.

I think it's silly to look at a 23 year old quarterback and compare him to a 33 year old one and say "These players are exactly where they will be, I can compare them evenly."

Like not only are we not talking the Tennessee days when Tannehill was Hurts's age, we're not even talking the 6 years he spent in Miami, where he barely hung on to an NFL gig.  He was at Texas A&M at this point in his career.

It just seems like you're kind of biased against Hurts.  I don't know what he'll be as a pro passer, maybe this is who he is, but it's too early to tell.

Well i don’t think age has much to do with it. I think it matters how much football you played. Tannehil played WR for 2-3 years in college too he didn’t even get 4 years at QB like hurts
 

I don’t think age really matters for what we’re looking at. I mean we’re looking at the 2022 season I can’t help that hurts at 23 isn’t as good as tannehil at 33 but that’s what we got. Maybe hurts will continue to get better and be a hall of famer but as of right now I don’t think he’s very good and that will hurt AJB’s production thus making Sutton a better pick. 
 

I don’t think I’m biased at all but maybe I am. I live in the Philly area and unfortunately watched most of their games and boy he sucked out loud a whole lot of the time last year. Once they went to the run heavy scheme he definitely improved tho. Played more within his abilities. 

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18 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Well i don’t think age has much to do with it. I think it matters how much football you played. Tannehil played WR for 2-3 years in college too he didn’t even get 4 years at QB like hurts
 

I don’t think age really matters for what we’re looking at. I mean we’re looking at the 2022 season I can’t help that hurts at 23 isn’t as good as tannehil at 33 but that’s what we got. Maybe hurts will continue to get better and be a hall of famer but as of right now I don’t think he’s very good and that will hurt AJB’s production thus making Sutton a better pick. 
 

I don’t think I’m biased at all but maybe I am. I live in the Philly area and unfortunately watched most of their games and boy he sucked out loud a whole lot of the time last year. Once they went to the run heavy scheme he definitely improved tho. Played more within his abilities. 

You don't think age has much to do with it?

So you don't believe that quarterbacks improve from their early years as they get more experience as professionals?

IDK man I don't think we're going to agree on this I guess.

Tannehill wasn't much of a quarterback for most of his career, except for a couple years when he was playfaking the ball to Derrick Henry and throwing to AJ Brown, I think just about any statistic you look at will back that up.

Up until the time he was 30, he was a super fringy starter with the Dolphins.  Most people agree they reached for him in the draft and that he struggled quite a bit in his time there.

If you don't like Hurts that's fine.  Time will tell if he is any good.  I just think it's silly to close the book on any potential development at 23 years old, but if you think you know, hey more power to you man.  Have a good one.

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42 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Idk about 10x better than Sutton but sure he’s probably better by a wide margin. But idc about that I want who is gonna score more points and ya the situation matters more sometimes. DJ Moore is probably a top 10 talent playing WR but he was outscored by Hunter renfrow last year. Which one would you have wanted? 
 

Is kupp the greatest WR to ever play football? No but you get the right situation and he sure looked like it.

Kupp and renfrow are amazing zone beaters, Sutton is not elite at either. Scheme matters, but player performance matters just as much. You dont think Allen Lazard is going to be Adams just because Rodgers is throwing him the ball at the same position. I think Sutton has upside because of how powerful this offense could be, but it wont be because he is amazing route runner or anything. Itll be air yds and TDs

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1 minute ago, JE7HorseGod said:

You don't think age has much to do with it?

So you don't believe that quarterbacks improve from their early years as they get more experience as professionals?

IDK man I don't think we're going to agree on this I guess.

Tannehill wasn't much of a quarterback for most of his career, except for a couple years when he was playfaking the ball to Derrick Henry and throwing to AJ Brown, I think just about any statistic you look at will back that up.

Up until the time he was 30, he was a super fringy starter with the Dolphins.  Most people agree they reached for him in the draft and that he struggled quite a bit in his time there.

If you don't like Hurts that's fine.  Time will tell if he is any good.  I just think it's silly to close the book on any potential development at 23 years old, but if you think you know, hey more power to you man.  Have a good one.

I think that guy has come in here with a biased, and thats okay. I wish I was drafting with him so I could scoop up these "bad" players

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18 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

You don't think age has much to do with it?

So you don't believe that quarterbacks improve from their early years as they get more experience as professionals?

IDK man I don't think we're going to agree on this I guess.

Tannehill wasn't much of a quarterback for most of his career, except for a couple years when he was playfaking the ball to Derrick Henry and throwing to AJ Brown, I think just about any statistic you look at will back that up.

Up until the time he was 30, he was a super fringy starter with the Dolphins.  Most people agree they reached for him in the draft and that he struggled quite a bit in his time there.

If you don't like Hurts that's fine.  Time will tell if he is any good.  I just think it's silly to close the book on any potential development at 23 years old, but if you think you know, hey more power to you man.  Have a good one.


I think we’re crossing wires or having miscommunications. Of course age does matter in the sense that a 33 year old 9 year vet should probably be better than a 23 year old sophomore. but you were comparing their ages when they were both rookies and I was commenting on that.. I don’t think the difference between a 22 year old rookie and a 26 year old rookie is different neither have played at the NFL level. As a matter a fact if the 22 year old started 3 years of college at a big time school I’d say he will adapt faster than a 26 year old rookie who had 2 years of starting at BYU. 
 

also of course I believe QB should get better with experience but I cannot help that in 2022 hurts has 2 years of experience and in 2021 tannehil had 8 years of experience. But that’s what we got and as of now I think tannehil as been and is better than hurts and because of that I think AJ brown is walking into a worse situation and will probably put up lesser numbers.

And ya tannehil wasn’t good in Miami. It was an awful ran organization. With one of the worst coaches in nfl history at the helm in Adam gase. And tannehil put up better passing numbers than hurts from day one. And he improved every year and at his peak he was throwing darts to AJB. Hurts isn’t close to that level right now imo and AJB will likely suffer for it.. unless he gets something wild like 180 targets.  

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32 minutes ago, JacobThunder15 said:

Kupp and renfrow are amazing zone beaters, Sutton is not elite at either. Scheme matters, but player performance matters just as much. You dont think Allen Lazard is going to be Adams just because Rodgers is throwing him the ball at the same position. I think Sutton has upside because of how powerful this offense could be, but it wont be because he is amazing route runner or anything. Itll be air yds and TDs

No but I do think Lazard will have a good season because he has one of the best QBs in league history chucking him 145 targets. 
 

32 minutes ago, JacobThunder15 said:

I think that guy has come in here with a biased, and thats okay. I wish I was drafting with him so I could scoop up these "bad" players

The irony in this statement is that your defending the “good” players “adams and brown” while I’m defending the “bad” ones in “Lazard and Sutton” 

 

once again idc if the player is good or bad at football I want fantasy points. I drafted hurts last year and road him to 24 ppg for 10 weeks but he probably only played good football in 2 or 3 of those 10 games. He can be good at fantasy and suck out at football, Tim Tebow and Atlanta mike Vick were top 10 QB did you want any of his WRs? 

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1 minute ago, Stonej14 said:

 And tannehil put up better passing numbers than hurts from day one. 

Absolutely inaccurate.  Tannehill threw touchdowns less frequently, interceptions more frequently, threw for less yards per attempt and got sacked more often than Hurts his rookie year.  That's without considering what Hurts brings as a runner, just passing.

Tannehill's second year he improved marginally, and did throw touchdowns more frequently than Hurts's rate, but threw picks at a higher rate and still had less yards per attempt.

That's what I'm saying man.  You are glamorizing Tannehill's development in this comparison.  Tannehill was not good his first two years in the league.  You're viewing that era in the most positive light (complaining about how bad Miami infrastructure is) because you saw what best case scenario was like in Tennessee.

It's all good.  If you don't like Hurts that's fine man.  I don't know what this looks like, but to pretend like Tannehill was any good at this same stage of his development is definitely revisionist history.

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22 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Absolutely inaccurate.  Tannehill threw touchdowns less frequently, interceptions more frequently, threw for less yards per attempt and got sacked more often than Hurts his rookie year.  That's without considering what Hurts brings as a runner, just passing.

Tannehill's second year he improved marginally, and did throw touchdowns more frequently than Hurts's rate, but threw picks at a higher rate and still had less yards per attempt.

That's what I'm saying man.  You are glamorizing Tannehill's development in this comparison.  Tannehill was not good his first two years in the league.  You're viewing that era in the most positive light (complaining about how bad Miami infrastructure is) because you saw what best case scenario was like in Tennessee.

It's all good.  If you don't like Hurts that's fine man.  I don't know what this looks like, but to pretend like Tannehill was any good at this same stage of his development is definitely revisionist history.

Once again I feel like we’re having a miscommunication because I’m not trying to “glamorize” Ryan tannehil just felt like he was a little underrated because his fins teams were so bad everyone acts like it’s his fault when In actuality the team, coaches and owners were beyond bad as well. It’s like blaming Steve young for the buccaneers being bad in the 80s and I could keep arguing over how 4 game sample size with an infinitely better ran team isn’t enough of a sample size to justify hurts’ percentages his rookie year and how a huge percentage of his 2021 stats were garbage time meaningless games but I just don’t care enough.
I’m not ready to die on the RT17 hill and I’m sure ppl want us to move on.


 

My initial comment was than Ryan tannehil is a better passer than hurts. that means AJB got a downgrade at QB and that will hurt AJBs fantasy production meanwhile Sutton has one of the best passing QBs in the league and should get a huge boon from it. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Once again I feel like we’re having a miscommunication because I’m not trying to “glamorize” Ryan tannehil just felt like he was a little underrated because his fins teams were so bad everyone acts like it’s his fault when In actuality the team, coaches and owners were beyond bad as well. It’s like blaming Steve young for the buccaneers being bad in the 80s and I could keep arguing over how 4 game sample size with an infinitely better ran team isn’t enough of a sample size to justify hurts’ percentages his rookie year and how a huge percentage of his 2021 stats were garbage time meaningless games but I just don’t care enough.
I’m not ready to die on the RT17 hill and I’m sure ppl want us to move on.


 

My initial comment was than Ryan tannehil is a better passer than hurts. that means AJB got a downgrade at QB and that will hurt AJBs fantasy production meanwhile Sutton has one of the best passing QBs in the league and should get a huge boon from it. 

 

 

I'm just saying I don't think it's a significant downgrade if that's the case.  On a scale from 1 to "going from Tom Brady to Nathan Pederman" it's maybe a 2.

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7 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I'm just saying I don't think it's a significant downgrade

Interesting.  How many TDs are you expecting Hurts to throw this year?  Assuming health for himself and AJB for 17 full games.  Because unless the answer is over 30, I don't see how this isn't a downgrade from 19 and 20 AJB.  If you're only comparing to 21 AJB them perhaps that's where the disconnect is happening.

Downgrades for fantasy and downgrades for real NFL are different.  We have to identify the difference.  Kyler Murray is a better QB than Kirk Cousins, right?  But if Justin Jefferson goes to Arizona, it's a QB downgrade for Jefferson.  Because Kirk throws 4200 yards and 30+ TDs damn near every year, and Kyler has never broke 4k yards or 27TDs.

Even though he's a better real world QB, he's a downgrade at QB for the game we play, from the perspective of the WR in question.

Hurts might be better than Tannehill ever will be... But unless he throws 4k/31 he's a downgrade for AJB in respect to fantasy production.

If you think Hurts can make that leap, that's fine, just hit me with the projections and let's move forward.

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3 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

Interesting.  How many TDs are you expecting Hurts to throw this year?  Assuming health for himself and AJB for 17 full games.  Because unless the answer is over 30, I don't see how this isn't a downgrade from 19 and 20 AJB.  If you're only comparing to 21 AJB them perhaps that's where the disconnect is happening.

Downgrades for fantasy and downgrades for real NFL are different.  We have to identify the difference.  Kyler Murray is a better QB than Kirk Cousins, right?  But if Justin Jefferson goes to Arizona, it's a QB downgrade for Jefferson.  Because Kirk throws 4200 yards and 30+ TDs damn near every year, and Kyler has never broke 4k yards or 27TDs.

Even though he's a better real world QB, he's a downgrade at QB for the game we play, from the perspective of the WR in question.

Hurts might be better than Tannehill ever will be... But unless he throws 4k/31 he's a downgrade for AJB in respect to fantasy production.

If you think Hurts can make that leap, that's fine, just hit me with the projections and let's move forward.

Ryan Tannehill threw 22 touchdowns on 2019.

2020 was a huge outlier on the rest of his career.  In both 2019 and 2021 AJ Brown played with a quarterback who wasn't statistically different as a passer than Hurts.

Perhaps Hurts can make inroads to becoming more like 2020 Tannehill as a passer with a teammate like Brown, we'll have to see.  But in so far as a majority of the games they played together, even if he doesn't I don't see a significant downgrade, no.

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4 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Ryan Tannehill threw 22 touchdowns on 2019.

2020 was a huge outlier on the rest of his career.  In both 2019 and 2021 AJ Brown played with a quarterback who wasn't statistically different as a passer than Hurts.

Perhaps Hurts can make inroads to becoming more like 2020 Tannehill as a passer with a teammate like Brown, we'll have to see.  But in so far as a majority of the games they played together, even if he doesn't I don't see a significant downgrade, no.

Bruh... He only played 12 games!

You're better than this.  He was pacing 29TDs in 2019 and threw 33 in 2020.  Thus I used an average of 31.  Where's the outlier?

In 2021 AJ Brown sucked, wasn't a top 30 WR, because Tannehill (without Henry) wasn't statistically different than Hurts, which is the ENTIRE point.

If Hurts is 2021 Tannehill you're in DEEP trouble.  He has to be 2019 or 2020 Tannehill to get anywhere near the value people are paying for AJB.  Which as I stated is 4200 and 30+.

You didn't answer my question.  What are your projections for Hurts?

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11 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Bruh... He only played 12 games!

You're better than this.  He was pacing 29TDs in 2019 and threw 33 in 2020.  Thus I used an average of 31.  Where's the outlier?

In 2021 AJ Brown sucked, wasn't a top 30 WR, because Tannehill (without Henry) wasn't statistically different than Hurts, which is the ENTIRE point.

If Hurts is 2021 Tannehill you're in DEEP trouble.  He has to be 2019 or 2020 Tannehill to get anywhere near the value people are paying for AJB.  Which as I stated is 4200 and 30+.

You didn't answer my question.  What are your projections for Hurts?

You're right.  I failed to calculate the pace and took the number at face value.

Listen, I'm not taking Brown where he is being taken, so all of this is a bit of an academic exercise for me.  But I also don't think Tannehill produced numbers that are totally irreplaceable by Hurts under the right circumstances.  I think Hurts is better as a passer than he showed last year and Brown can probably help him get closer to those numbers, and that Tannehill is probably closer to an average passer who was put in near perfect conditions for him to reach those numbers.

I'll take 26 passing touchdowns for Hurts, 8 of those to Brown.

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1 hour ago, FFCollusion said:

Bruh... He only played 12 games!

You're better than this.  He was pacing 29TDs in 2019 and threw 33 in 2020.  Thus I used an average of 31.  Where's the outlier?

In 2021 AJ Brown sucked, wasn't a top 30 WR, because Tannehill (without Henry) wasn't statistically different than Hurts, which is the ENTIRE point.

If Hurts is 2021 Tannehill you're in DEEP trouble.  He has to be 2019 or 2020 Tannehill to get anywhere near the value people are paying for AJB.  Which as I stated is 4200 and 30+.

You didn't answer my question.  What are your projections for Hurts?

God I was trying to say this exact thing but I was too stupid to put it into words and instead sounded like I was trying to make tannehil sound like a QB god. 
 

Because of this reason alone I think Sutton at his ADP is such a safer with likely just as high a ceiling as AJB. I don’t fault anyone wanting to take a talent like AJB but Russell Wilson makes it a easy decision to me. 

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1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

You're right.  I failed to calculate the pace and took the number at face value.

Listen, I'm not taking Brown where he is being taken, so all of this is a bit of an academic exercise for me.  But I also don't think Tannehill produced numbers that are totally irreplaceable by Hurts under the right circumstances.  I think Hurts is better as a passer than he showed last year and Brown can probably help him get closer to those numbers, and that Tannehill is probably closer to an average passer who was put in near perfect conditions for him to reach those numbers.

I'll take 26 passing touchdowns for Hurts, 8 of those to Brown.

I’ll agree with you that hurts should get better this year. He has no reason not too. 2nd year in the system, better WR options, great line, great run game. But idk if it will be enough to justify ABJs ADP.. hurts will likely still be fine for fantasy but brown could suffer. 

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30 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

He’s gonna be like DK.. 1300-10-85.. maybe more not because he’s better than DK but because Denver will let Russ cook all year thus more attempts. 

I like Sutton but this feels extremely ambitious. I think the TD number is right the but the receptions and yardage might be lower. 

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10 TD's would be huge.  I'm in and he has a large variance in expert rankings so can likely get him as your team's WR2 or even WR3 depending on draft/auction strategy, flow, lineup settings and your projected mock roster build.

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