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Courtland Sutton 2022 Outlook


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Last season up until WK17 Sutton had 27 deep targets (20+ yards downfield)...only 8 of those targets were actually deemed 'catchable' per PFF.

Sutton caught all 8.

Another year removed from ACL, and having a far more normal offseason will be huge for him. He is the alpha in this offense imo.

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Dude also got paid, but yes. I can see him and Jeudy in the 3rd and 4th round respectively, just like Lamb and Cooper last year. That did not work out. However, what did work out was Kupp and Woods in the 4th round. Overall, I don't like it, but let's see the ADP.  

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  • 4 months later...

I loved watching Sutton during his 2019 breakout season but my major concern is the guy was STILL wearing a knee brace towards the end of the year last year and in some off-season training shots. Want to see if that thing comes off by the time the season rolls around. Ain't no player with a knee brace on making sharp cuts inside or outside; I'm not worried about his vertical game or contested catch ability, but his cutting ability is going to suffer as long as he has that thing on.

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15 minutes ago, harck said:

I loved watching Sutton during his 2019 breakout season but my major concern is the guy was STILL wearing a knee brace towards the end of the year last year and in some off-season training shots. Want to see if that thing comes off by the time the season rolls around. Ain't no player with a knee brace on making sharp cuts inside or outside; I'm not worried about his vertical game or contested catch ability, but his cutting ability is going to suffer as long as he has that thing on.

He has been training all off-season without the brace -including throwing sessions with Russ. I have not seen him sporting it once in camp either.

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Just now, ST. STEVEN said:

He has been training all off-season without the brace -including throwing sessions with Russ. I have not seen him sporting it once in camp either.

That's great to hear. He worried me last year when he kept it on till the end of the year and said "it was here to stay" in press conferences. I was skeptical of that comment because those things really limit side to side mobility which is essential for guys with Sutton's frame that can feast on slants and crossing routes. Maybe it was Hamler that I saw sporting the brace in one of the training vids and assumed it was Sutton.

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Smarter people than me have identified that if we were to compare this to say, the Bucs receivers, that Sutton would play the Mike Evans SE role and that Jeudy would be more of the Godwin FL-Slot role.  Patrick muddles things a bit in the sense that he is capable of manning all three positions, but plays most out of FL on 3 WR sets while Jeudy most frequently moves inside to the slot.

The Seahawks didn't really have a "Patrick" in that sense, and so when comparing the situation to the Bucs through the lens of Wilson's previous experience It's not entirely analogous.  While Godwin could have had better seasons than Evans, if, say, Antonio Brown is healthy the whole year it changes the calculus, and we don't have any idea how Wilson favors a third WR in this scenario if they are equally talented.

I want to draft Sutton.  He's bigger, he jumps higher, he's produced at a higher level, and he seems like a better downfield target for Wilson's moonshot style than the other two.  He costs more but I think he'll be worth it.

If you want to take a crack at the other two I can't blame you.  I might take a flier on Patrick but Jeudy is going in a spot right now where my projection on him doesn't jive.

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7 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

This guy was one of the top talents in the league pre-injury. He made several unbelievable catches. If he's even 80% of that with an actual NFL quarterback and I'd expect WR1 numbers. 

Yep, his 2019 year he was one of my favorite receivers to watch. Just a joy. Unfortunately, he looked nothing like his 2019 self last year, hopefully 2 years removed from the ACL + the new QB will rejuvenate him.

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22 hours ago, harck said:

Yep, his 2019 year he was one of my favorite receivers to watch. Just a joy. Unfortunately, he looked nothing like his 2019 self last year, hopefully 2 years removed from the ACL + the new QB will rejuvenate him.

How much of this "looking nothing like his 2019 self" though was the injury vs. just bad play calling and QB play...

On 3/9/2022 at 9:09 AM, ST. STEVEN said:

Last season up until WK17 Sutton had 27 deep targets (20+ yards downfield)...only 8 of those targets were actually deemed 'catchable' per PFF.

Sutton caught all 8.

Another year removed from ACL, and having a far more normal offseason will be huge for him. He is the alpha in this offense imo.

I feel like this shows that so much of his problem was bad deep balls. Now, how much did that effect the play calling to not calling his number more often if his most powerful tool is removed.  

I do agree that maybe beyond the deepball, maybe his number wasnt called last year on slants and more intermediate routes because of his injury. But he did blow up in weeks 2, 5 and 6 - so the fuel for the fire is still there...

I know there have been a lot of comparisons of Russ to DK, but with Hackett here, I am just hoping we get better playcalling and focus on using players to their best talents. Maybe Davante with less target-share is a better way to think of Sutton's upside?

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This WR group is going to be hard to predict but I’m heavy Sutton in BB. This is different than the Rams last year. Broncos have 4 quality receivers (Hamler back practicing) Rams had 2 to start the year. Starting to temper my expectations 

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2 hours ago, affliction said:

This WR group is going to be hard to predict but I’m heavy Sutton in BB. This is different than the Rams last year. Broncos have 4 quality receivers (Hamler back practicing) Rams had 2 to start the year. Starting to temper my expectations 

Hamler's injury story last year was insane.  His story is inspiring but I am not expecting him to be much of a factor.

"Due to the resulting surgical procedure, Hamler was left without the use of both his legs initially, and afterward, the former Penn State standout had to use a walking aid to get around. Even bathing and toileting become massive challenges, with Hamler losing an astonishing 40 pounds of body weight in recovery."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/nfl/broncos/.amp/news/kj-hamler-injury-details-return-update-2022

The significant question is how big a role Patrick plays, and if it is significant, whose workload does it cut into?

To me that's much more like Jeudy than Sutton, because while Patrick is capable of playing SE, you're much more likely to see him at flanker pushing Jeudy into the slot.  Sutton's much more likely to pull those iso plays that you see Evans in or what Dez Bryant used to do, etc.

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10 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Hamler's injury story last year was insane.  His story is inspiring but I am not expecting him to be much of a factor.

"Due to the resulting surgical procedure, Hamler was left without the use of both his legs initially, and afterward, the former Penn State standout had to use a walking aid to get around. Even bathing and toileting become massive challenges, with Hamler losing an astonishing 40 pounds of body weight in recovery."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/nfl/broncos/.amp/news/kj-hamler-injury-details-return-update-2022

The significant question is how big a role Patrick plays, and if it is significant, whose workload does it cut into?

To me that's much more like Jeudy than Sutton, because while Patrick is capable of playing SE, you're much more likely to see him at flanker pushing Jeudy into the slot.  Sutton's much more likely to pull those iso plays that you see Evans in or what Dez Bryant used to do, etc.

That’s crazy. Hamler will probably be a situational guy. Get a few shots deep every once in while. 

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2 minutes ago, affliction said:

That’s crazy. Hamler will probably be a situational guy. Get a few shots deep every once in while. 

I think that's what he was before the injury personally.  I think he's an awesome dude but I wouldn't factor him much into your FF plans.

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On 8/1/2022 at 4:12 PM, JE7HorseGod said:

I think that's what he was before the injury personally.  I think he's an awesome dude but I wouldn't factor him much into your FF plans.

 

19 hours ago, affliction said:

Yikes 

 

Well, though it's really unfortunate for Patrick - I was really going to key in him in drafts - looks like the sky is the limit now for Sutton, and Hamler is definitely relevant now. 

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Stinks for Patrick and maybe a bit for Russ, but it definitely narrows the target focus for Sutton and Jeudy and creates a bit of a vacuum that maybe Hamler can fill, though after seeing what @JE7HorseGod has said about his injury, I have major doubts he can be a big contributor. Maybe the rookie 5th rounder that has been getting rave reviews in camp steps up? Or they shift some and run more 2 TE or multi back pro-form sets? Either way this is setting up very well for Sutton and Jeudy.

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