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Rashaad Penny 2022 Outlook


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47 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Maybe i'm 12?

It's hard for me to take guys seriously that pay so much attention to chat acronyms

'Pay so much attention' you mean read the word instead of not read it? We all know you're not 12 guy....

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So this has gotten way off track...

\I think the question here is what price you get him at. Most of us who had him last year picked him up, and if you are in a situation like mine, I would be keeping him for $1 in my auction. I think you can get him as your RB3, and not have to rely on him, you're likely in a good risk/reward space with him. 

Concerning the situation, I think what most are overlooking is how efficient he was during those big games (weeks 14, 16-18). He was averaging 7+ YPC and broke off huge runs in each of those games (47, 32, 37, 62). I also read that he was the 10th best back for Elusiveness with Missed Tackles Forced per Attempt: 0.227, nearly tying Aaron Jones last year. 

Ultimately, my hope is that this efficiency / homerun ability still pushes him into usefulness even if they have Walker taking on 8 - 10 touches a game. I think worse case scenario (not factoring in injury concerns) you will still have a player who can score long TDs and pick up chunks of yards even if the touches are spread more evenly on 1st / 2nd down. However, the upside here is enormous. If they run him out there for 20+ carries like they did at the end of last year knowing that after this year he's not on their team, then this guy is a steal - if he can stay on the field...

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I realize pretty much everyone has offered the caveat "if he can stay healthy" but that seems like a crazy longshot to me.

I may have the numbers wrong here but by my count he has missed 27 regular season games due to injury out of a possible 64, or 42%.  He has also suffered new injuries every single season I believe.

That's crazy.  Most guys would be out of the league at that rate.

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2 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I realize pretty much everyone has offered the caveat "if he can stay healthy" but that seems like a crazy longshot to me.

I may have the numbers wrong here but by my count he has missed 27 regular season games due to injury out of a possible 64, or 42%.  He has also suffered new injuries every single season I believe.

That's crazy.  Most guys would be out of the league at that rate.

This is a very fair point - but I have two responses:

1) the fact that these injuries are "New injuries every single season" means that it is not of the nature where you would be concerned that he would RE-injure himself with the same nagging injury year over year. If it were the 'same knee' or the 'same shoulder' year after year, then I would be more concerned

2) The Seahawks have stuck with him throughout all those injuries, betting on his talent. You're right, 'most guys would be out of the league at that rate' - but they must see something special enough to pay him top 15 RB AAV and have stuck with him all this time. 

This case is definitely a handcuff required of the highest variety, and likely not a player to snag as a RB2 outright, but for the correct price, I think he will be worth it.

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3 minutes ago, Dr.Funktopus said:

This is a very fair point - but I have two responses:

1) the fact that these injuries are "New injuries every single season" means that it is not of the nature where you would be concerned that he would RE-injure himself with the same nagging injury year over year. If it were the 'same knee' or the 'same shoulder' year after year, then I would be more concerned

2) The Seahawks have stuck with him throughout all those injuries, betting on his talent. You're right, 'most guys would be out of the league at that rate' - but they must see something special enough to pay him top 15 RB AAV and have stuck with him all this time. 

This case is definitely a handcuff required of the highest variety, and likely not a player to snag as a RB2 outright, but for the correct price, I think he will be worth it.

I hear ya.  You're not wrong, the Seahawks gave him a expensive (albiet short term) contract.  His injuries are to similar parts of the body (knee, hamstring, knee again, hamstring again) but may not be chronic, if kinesthetically related.

I'll say this though, in spite of the contract, they also drafted Kenneth Walker in the second round and at 41st overall.  And the ideal plan may be to keep Walker in bubble wrap this year and phase Penny out, but I've seen far too many Rashaad Penny injuries to believe that ideal plan is in the Cards.

Walker is really good.  I was fully of the impression, and I don't think I am alone in this, that he could challenge Breece Hall to be the first RB off the board.  He single handedly wrecked a defense in Michigan that many believed was the second best defense in the country behind Georgia.

They're being drafted right around the same spot, and to me, if I want an RB3 who is more likely to be available throughout the year, I'm talking Walker.

If Penny were more of the "end of bench flier" type territory I would take a chance on him.  I just feel like there's a lot of optimism on his end of the year last year that is getting people to hope that some big glaring red flags go away.  I wish y'all luck.

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Based off the film YouTube videos I’ve seen I’m a believer that Penny is a good RB (potentially very good) and is finally having a stable bill of health this off-season.

 

I think if he stays healthy all year he is at minimum a top 20 with top 12 potential based on on much Seattle wants to run the ball.
 

Just my observations at this time. I’m comfortable taking Penny in the 6th with assumed health. He has potential to return 2nd round value. A long shot but it’s in the range of outcomes.

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10 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I realize pretty much everyone has offered the caveat "if he can stay healthy" but that seems like a crazy longshot to me.

I may have the numbers wrong here but by my count he has missed 27 regular season games due to injury out of a possible 64, or 42%.  He has also suffered new injuries every single season I believe.

That's crazy.  Most guys would be out of the league at that rate.

People are still arguing for CMC first overall and he’s going too 5 often and doesn’t get out the top 10.

So there’s that…

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

People are still arguing for CMC first overall and he’s going too 5 often and doesn’t get out the top 10.

So there’s that…

McCaffrey played in 16 games in all three seasons before that.  Still waiting for the first one of those from Penny.

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35 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

McCaffrey played in 16 games in all three seasons before that.  Still waiting for the first one of those from Penny.

Don’t really care how much he played in 2019 mate. That’s ages ago. Here’s food for thought:

Penny has more rushing yards in his last 5 games than CMC has in the last 2 seasons combined. 

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28 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Don’t really care how much he played in 2019 mate. That’s ages ago. Here’s food for thought:

Penny has more rushing yards in his last 5 games than CMC has in the last 2 seasons combined. 

Well I do.  And so do a lot of other people, if you were legitimately interested in understanding the answer to why McCaffrey top 10 and Penny not at all.  But that wouldn't have given you an opportunity to soapbox and bring up this odd little cherry picked data based on information that we both obviously have wouldn't it?

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It comes down to two things. He is a potential injury risk and the offense will not be as good as last year. 

Expecting him to repeat what he did at the end of the season isn't a good idea but for where he's being drafted (or kept at for cheap), he's a great value. 

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9 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Well I do.  And so do a lot of other people, if you were legitimately interested in understanding the answer to why McCaffrey top 10 and Penny not at all.  But that wouldn't have given you an opportunity to soapbox and bring up this odd little cherry picked data based on information that we both obviously have wouldn't it?

You're missing the point. I'm not arguing that Penny and CMC have similar value. Obviously they don't. I'm simply pointing out that it's odd to argue against him because of injuries and then have CMC anywhere in the 1-7 range. I don't know where you personally stand on CMC but that's where he is going.

I didn't cherry pick anything. That's not what cherry picking is. I took CMCs last 2 seasons. I didn't cherry pick any data. It shows how injured he has been. He hasn't exactly been healthier than Penny. 

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On 7/10/2022 at 6:51 PM, Boudewijn said:

https://www.nfl.com/_amp/seahawks-rb-chris-carson-neck-has-no-timeline-for-recovery-but-will-continue-to-

"Not trying to rush it, I'm just trying to take it one day at a time," Carson said. "Just keep rehabbing, keep getting better. Keep building strength and then go from there. But like I said, there's no timeline for me."

That doesn't sound like someone about to be back. Pete Carroll also dropped some hints:

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/seahawks/pete-carroll-hints-the-end-may-be-near-for-seahawks-running-back-chris-carsons-career/

“Our guys love this game that they grow up playing, and when they sense that there may be an end to it, it’s hard. It’s difficult, and it’s real,” Carroll said. “And we’re going to love him through it and help him as much as possible, if that’s the case, like we do with everybody when it comes to the end of it. It’s inevitable. It’s coming, but it’s always too soon, so we’re trying to fight that off.”

So... I would leave Carson out of your projections for now.

There is still 2 months to go before the start of the season, though.  Carson will be back by the early part of the season but I really think that Seattle should give Penny a chance to be the main guy.  He looked really good last season, is a better pass catcher and more explosive than Carson though when healthy, Carson is also solid.  The issue with Penny in the past was always his inability to avoid injury.  Carson is also pretty injury-prone.

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27 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

There is still 2 months to go before the start of the season, though.  Carson will be back by the early part of the season but I really think that Seattle should give Penny a chance to be the main guy.  He looked really good last season, is a better pass catcher and more explosive than Carson though when healthy, Carson is also solid.  The issue with Penny in the past was always his inability to avoid injury.  Carson is also pretty injury-prone.

Carson is more likely to retire or be cut than he is to be any kind of threat to Penny and Walker.

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Carson is a non-factor this year.

There are 2 questions in my eyes:

  • When does Penny get injured?
  • How bad is the Seahawks offense.

Unless the answer to question 1 is "immediately" then Penny seems like good value in the 8th round or so. Even if the Hawks are putrid he's going to get a lot of run.

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19 minutes ago, MingusDew said:

Carson is a non-factor this year.

There are 2 questions in my eyes:

  • When does Penny get injured?
  • How bad is the Seahawks offense.

Unless the answer to question 1 is "immediately" then Penny seems like good value in the 8th round or so. Even if the Hawks are putrid he's going to get a lot of run.

I just don’t think the offense is going to be THAT bad.

Last year with Geno in 3 games they still averaged over 20 PPG and that was with him being throw in the fire without an off season to prepare and I also think the offense is better this year with the supporting cast. I know it’s a very small sample and we don’t know who will be the QB (i think Lock) but the point is in the sample we have the offense wasn’t totally dead.

Don’t get me wrong, the offense isn’t going to be very good. However, I think it finishes somewhere in the 20-22 range. So while it’s not going to do Penny any real favors it also isn’t going to be so bad he can’t get anything going. 

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2 hours ago, MingusDew said:

Carson is a non-factor this year.

There are 2 questions in my eyes:

  • When does Penny get injured?
  • How bad is the Seahawks offense.

Unless the answer to question 1 is "immediately" then Penny seems like good value in the 8th round or so. Even if the Hawks are putrid he's going to get a lot of run.

4 team league?

On a serious note, Penny is one of my #1 targets for ZeroRB strategy this year.  First 5 rounds of WRx3, QB, and TE in whatever order you want.

Then Penny sitting right there in the 6th of 12 team PPR leagues, immediately followed by Singletary in the 7th.

I would have no issues with those 2 as my starting RBs going into week 1, assuming my team was stacked at every other position because of the strategy.

Just a reminder, these were the top 2 backs in fantasy over the final 5 weeks of the season.

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3 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

4 team league?

On a serious note, Penny is one of my #1 targets for ZeroRB strategy this year.  First 5 rounds of WRx3, QB, and TE in whatever order you want.

Then Penny sitting right there in the 6th of 12 team PPR leagues, immediately followed by Singletary in the 7th.

I would have no issues with those 2 as my starting RBs going into week 1, assuming my team was stacked at every other position because of the strategy.

Just a reminder, these were the top 2 backs in fantasy over the final 5 weeks of the season.

Eh he's been around 7/8 in the mocks I've done. I have not done any live drafts.

I really like stacking him with Singletary. If I need to do that in the 6/7 then so be it,

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On 7/12/2022 at 2:17 AM, Gohawks said:

Don’t really care how much he played in 2019 mate. That’s ages ago. Here’s food for thought:

Penny has more rushing yards in his last 5 games than CMC has in the last 2 seasons combined. 

Wow.

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https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/seahawks/seahawks-mailbag-answering-your-questions-on-running-backs-tackles-and-more/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=owned_echobox_sports&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1657901545

"But if Carson can’t play, I think a realistic projection is Penny gets 20 carries or so a game"

I think this beat writer is nuts if he is really expecting Penny to get 20 carries a game and stay healthy, but if you do you should assume you're getting first round value out of him.

RBs who averaged 20+ carries in 2021:

Derrick Henry.

That's it.  That's the list.

Edited by JE7HorseGod
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One thing I noticed is during Penny's crazy run at the end of the season, the schedule for Seattle was pretty soft.  

Houston

LA Rams

Chicago

NY Jets

Arizona

Houston and the Jets were abysmal rush defenses last season, 31st and 29th in the NFL respectively.  Chicago and Arizona were below average also, 22nd and 21st respectively.  So 4 of the last 5 games were against teams that had a run defense 21st or worse in the NFL.  The Rams defense is elite, and in that game Penny went 11 for 39.  Even in Week 11 against San Fran Penny got 10 carries and turned it into 35 yards.  Are we pumping up Penny a bit too much given that his monster games all came against pretty crappy defenses?

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11 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

One thing I noticed is during Penny's crazy run at the end of the season, the schedule for Seattle was pretty soft.  

Houston

LA Rams

Chicago

NY Jets

Arizona

Houston and the Jets were abysmal rush defenses last season, 31st and 29th in the NFL respectively.  Chicago and Arizona were below average also, 22nd and 21st respectively.  So 4 of the last 5 games were against teams that had a run defense 21st or worse in the NFL.  The Rams defense is elite, and in that game Penny went 11 for 39.  Even in Week 11 against San Fran Penny got 10 carries and turned it into 35 yards.  Are we pumping up Penny a bit too much given that his monster games all came against pretty crappy defenses?

At this stage of the game his ADP is somewhere around 90-100 depending on where you look.  So for an 8th or 9th rounder I say why not take a shot?

However it seems likely that it will rise if we keep seeing propaganda about him.  If he rises to a 3rd-5th round pick that's when I start taking Walker, which is where I am expecting him to go when my draft time rolls around.

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4 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

However it seems likely that it will rise if we keep seeing propaganda about him. 

you mean ... like that? ^

🐴

5 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

 If he rises to a 3rd-5th round pick that's when I start taking Walker, which is where I am expecting him to go when my draft time rolls around.

thisistheway.gif?w=498

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