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Rashaad Penny 2022 Outlook


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45 minutes ago, TTo34 said:

 

Of course they won’t but reportedly they want to spend 8-10M on a WR3.

******** stupid a** front office living off one or two draft classes a decade ago. 

Edited by Gohawks
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I have big eyes on this one as he's a dirt cheap keeper for me.   Would've been happy if he came back to Seattle before the Russlessness, but now, go east young man...........and probably a little south to.  

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  • 2 weeks later...

Effing waste... Chris Carson is still breathing means Pete still has a boner.... they didn't want you idiot for year 5 so let's reward them for 5 carries a game and resign on a team friendly deal

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2 hours ago, hard1 said:

Effing waste... Chris Carson is still breathing means Pete still has a boner.... they didn't want you idiot for year 5 so let's reward them for 5 carries a game and resign on a team friendly deal

You don’t think Penny would start and get the bulk of carries over Carson considering how he finished the season combined with Carson’s inefficiency all year long?

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I think his agent didn't even shop him... Seattle didn't pick up his 5th year option. They should have been told to pound salt... Sure he finished strong but Carson is Pete's boy and still on the roster.... this has timeshare written all over it... I beg I am wrong... cause so far this off season all my dynasty stashes haven't improved their stock... 

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I'd have wanted Penny on a contender of course, but this is better than him pulling a Raiders Kenyan Drake or something similar.   He'll have a role from day one, and he's going to outperform Carson for sure, who may not even be healthy.   Not ideal, but could be worse.   

I'm not gonna pretend there's more than a prayer of them having a good QB this year, but hopefully they at least draft some linemen and get Andy Dalton or someone who can throw for 3300 yards at least, given the good WR's.    

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7 hours ago, hard1 said:

Effing waste... Chris Carson is still breathing means Pete still has a boner.... they didn't want you idiot for year 5 so let's reward them for 5 carries a game and resign on a team friendly deal

You clearly have no idea what you’re talking about and that’s ok. 

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Penny is going to be this year's version of Ronald Jones or Jeff Wilson Jr. People are going to verbally jerk-off his small sample size stats and argue to their dying breath his League Winner potential. 

Then the games will start and they will be miserable a-holes all season long. If you think Penny all of a sudden becomes Beast Mode Jr. after years of injury-plagued lackluster seasons, then feel free to draft/bid/keep him. Be prepared to hit that waiver wire like a mad man.

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1 hour ago, SkittleMania said:

Penny is going to be this year's version of Ronald Jones or Jeff Wilson Jr. People are going to verbally jerk-off his small sample size stats and argue to their dying breath his League Winner potential. 

Then the games will start and they will be miserable a-holes all season long. If you think Penny all of a sudden becomes Beast Mode Jr. after years of injury-plagued lackluster seasons, then feel free to draft/bid/keep him. Be prepared to hit that waiver wire like a mad man.

nah

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He's tough to value because he's only on a one year deal, Carson is still there and the team is in a significant period of change. Oh and we can't forget that he's been hurt almost ALL his career.

Edited by Spyplane
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17 hours ago, SkittleMania said:

Penny is going to be this year's version of Ronald Jones or Jeff Wilson Jr. People are going to verbally jerk-off his small sample size stats and argue to their dying breath his League Winner potential. 

We might as well get it out of the way then.

Let's start by saying that Rashad Penny makes Raheem Mostert look undestructible.   So, let's just drop any further discussion about injuries.  No one in their right mind is even pretending that this guy plays a full season, if anyone thought he could play a full season, his draft price would be astronomical, but it's not, so move on.  You get what you pay for, his injury risk will be  baked into his ADP, so crying about it is useless.

Now the numbers. (Yahoo Default + PPR)

Over the final 5 games of last season, Rashad Penny, was far and away, the #1 RB in fantasy.
He lead in fantasy points: 110.2
He lead in rushing yards: 671
He lead in TDs: 6
His PPG of 22.0 was 2nd to only James Conner
And it wasn't because he was forcefed, as he only had 92 carries, an average of 18 per game.  Which for Seattle and Pete is normal.

For comparisons, Jonathan Taylor had 91 carries in 4 games.  With 463 yards to show for it, Penny had 45% more rushing yards than the #1 overall pick, and did it with 1 less game. (Meaning Taylor was averaging 23 carries a game, much harder to sustain and endure)

Obligatory extrapolation, even though penny will never play 17 games...
This 5 game pace would put him at 313 carries, 2,281 yards, 20 TDs, and 375 fantasy points.
Jonathan Taylor was the #1 fantasy RB last year, with 332 carries, 1,811 yards, 18 TDs, and 377 fantasy points.

Rashad Penny didn't obtain these stats in an entirely fluky way.  It wasn't 1 or 2 massive games against a team where he ran wild.
Week 14: 16 carries, 137 yards, 2 TDs
Week 16: 17 carries, 135 yards, 1 TD
Week 17: 25 carries, 170 yards, 2 TDs
Week 18: 23 carries, 191 yards, 1 TD

Now let's discuss the elephant in the room.  These games came against HOU, CHI, DET, ARI.
HOU allowed the most rushing yards to RB in the league last year.
DET allowed the 4th most
CHI 7th most
ARI 11th most

By now, you're all screaming at your screen that the only real team he played, the LA Rams, held him to 11 carries and 39 scoreless yards.  This is very true, but does it mean anything?  I don't know, but I offer this:
Jonathan Taylor was the #1 RB.  Rams held him to 15 for 51
James Conner was RB5.  Rams held him to 18 for 50.
Leonard Fournette was the #8 RB.  Rams held him to 4 for 8.
D.Swift was RB14, held to 13 for 48.
A.Jones RB10, 10 for 23
Elijah Mitchell, David Montgomery, and Chase Edmonds are the only RBs to have noteworthy days against the Rams all year long.

Next year (if I'm understanding correctly) Seattle's schedule will obviously be 2 games vs the 9ers and Rams again, which sucks.  But they'll get 2 against ARI (11th most), ATL (10th most), Raiders (13th), Broncos (14th), Giants (5th), Jets (6th), Chiefs (16), and Chargers (3rd most)

9 of the 17 games will be plus matchups (ignoring what we don't know changes)
Rams x2, 9ers x2, Saints, Buccs, and Packers is bad news.  Panthers 20th.

It will all depend on the price, but if I do some useless math that means nothing... Let's say Penny plays 8 games this year, and let's say he has a plus matchup for only 4 of those games.  If Penny could win you potentially 4 games this year... how much would you pay for him?

Last year, Raheem Mostert went in the middle of the 6th round, of 12 team PPR drafts.  I believe Penny offers equal risk, with higher rewards.  He'll likely cost a 5th round pick, which basically means you have to draft with the mentality that he's a foundation of your team. assuming 2 RB, 2WR, and a flex.  The 5th round is essentially a flex player, where you are going to start that player each week, until someone else establishes trust, or is just a draft day value.  90% of the time, the first 7 rounds will be immediately depended on.  Losing Wilson, Carson's status, potential trade rumors of Metcalf, draft approaching... will all factor in at some point down the road, but in March it's irrelevant to go any deeper.

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If anyone's really unbreakable with love for Penny, they're foolish, and this is from a guy who's taking the plunge.   Its no sure thing or close, and the floor here is very low, even if he's healthy.  

He's basically a FOMO player for me, I find a couple every year.   A guy I absolutely believe is capable of hitting a major peak, and I need to have him in one league because I'll kick myself if I don't get him and it happens.    At the same time, given the downside, i'll limit that to one single share.    It's easy to live with being wrong if he falls, and also won't cost me sleep to have not drafted him multiple times.  

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Might be the toughest guy to assess in all of fantasy. You have three complete unknowns. Was the stretch run sustainable? What will Carson's role be? And can he finally stay healthy? If we get the answers we want he's a locked in RB1, and if we don't he could be waiver fodder. Gonna be very interesting to see where he gets drafted. 

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5 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Might be the toughest guy to assess in all of fantasy. You have three complete unknowns. Was the stretch run sustainable? What will Carson's role be? And can he finally stay healthy? If we get the answers we want he's a locked in RB1, and if we don't he could be waiver fodder. Gonna be very interesting to see where he gets drafted. 

I'd also tack on how will probable terrible QB play affect his production

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On 3/20/2022 at 1:22 PM, hard1 said:

Effing waste... Chris Carson is still breathing means Pete still has a boner.... they didn't want you idiot for year 5 so let's reward them for 5 carries a game and resign on a team friendly deal

 

On 3/26/2022 at 8:13 AM, hard1 said:

Carson doesn't give Pete a boner?

I've been meaning to address the first point for a while but haven't had time. Surprising how you can say so much nonseness in a few sentences but here we go:

1. No one gives Pete a "boner" except running the ball over and over again. He's notorious for not caring about much except how good you are at football which Carson has been very good at in his career. In fact, he was A LOT better than Penny or anyone else they dragged in for that matter. Which leads me to my second point:

2. You make it seem like Seattle did Penny dirty which is laughable. In fact, they stood by him to a fault. He came into the league and looked absolutely horrendous. He couldn't hit holes and did not run hard whatsoever. Depsite this, Seattle stood by him and continued to give him touches. They clearly saw something and it started to pay off until he tore his ACL. He had like 3 good games. You expect Seattle to give him an extention after this? He couldn't even make it through the first game last season. Even then, they made him the bellcow when he was ready to play. 

3. Penny is now the 18th highest paid RB going into the year. More money than Carson. Again, despite being injured most of his career and only putting together one legitimate stretch. How is it team friendly? It's an extremely fair contract to Penny. 

Here's what I said about Penny in January in his 2021 thread:

Quote

Absolutely zero chance they drop 9M on a back that put together 5 games after being hurt for 3+ years.

There's a good chance we see a one year prove it deal worth like 5-6M. Penny likely wants to secure an 8M+ a year bag and he knows he isn't going to get it based on his current career but if he puts together a great year he will. If he bets on himself I see him coming back for a year before chasing the money to some bum team willing to over spend. 

It was pretty clear then that he isn't worth much more. Again, making it seem like Seattle owes Penny something or whatever is just hilarious. Seattle is his best chance to get a bigger pay day.

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Well stated.  We see players who've just flashed at times getting big free agent deals often, and I was hoping for that here just to up his value.   But, realistically, he can't really say he deserves more than the prove-it deal.  He got a decent payday which hopefully is both a sign of promise in their belief in Penny, and also a confidence booster.   

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