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Juan Soto 2022 Outlook


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According to Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes, Juan Soto turned down a 13-year, $350 million contract extension offer from the Nationals prior to the lockout.

Soto did confirm the report (expanded quotes at the link below): "Yes, they made me the offer a couple of months ago, before the strike we have in baseball," the young slugger told ESPN on Wednesday. "But right now, me and my agents think the best option is to go year after year and wait for free agency. My agent, Scott Boras, is in control of that situation." The extension would have carried an average annual salary of nearly $27 million and contained no deferred money, per Rojas. Soto is arbitration-eligible for the second time in 2022 and is currently slated to reach the free agent market at the conclusion of the 2024 season. He has slashed .301/.432/.550 with 98 home runs and 312 RBI through his first 464 career major league games.

SOURCE: ESPN Deportes
Feb 16, 2022, 1:56 PM ET
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1 hour ago, StevieStats said:

Left handed Manny Ramirez 

He comps much more closely to being a left handed Frank Thomas due to his elite walk rate. They have virtually the same triple slash lines through their first 2,000 career plate appearances. Soto actually has more homers than Thomas did at that stage too.

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19 hours ago, Dislimb said:

He comps much more closely to being a left handed Frank Thomas due to his elite walk rate. They have virtually the same triple slash lines through their first 2,000 career plate appearances. Soto actually has more homers than Thomas did at that stage too.

Yep. Thomas is probably a better comparison. It's also crazy to think that posted a OBP of over .500 for nearly three months last season. That's just insane. 

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2 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Can you imagine turning down $350M?

 

 

I genuinely can't.  Sure, maybe in the  market he's worth 500. 350  million means your grandkids are set  for life if  you're not an idiot. At some point you gotta say deal  and move on. Can't imagine what an extra 100  million would mean to  you if you had 350. Granted with taxes we're looking  at like 200 million and additional  like 65 or so.  Still.

Good  for him though. Just seems risky. 

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On 2/16/2022 at 8:49 PM, Dislimb said:

He comps much more closely to being a left handed Frank Thomas due to his elite walk rate. They have virtually the same triple slash lines through their first 2,000 career plate appearances. Soto actually has more homers than Thomas did at that stage too.

I mean his actually comp is Ted Williams.

 

You can divide Washington’s offense into two distinct parts. The first part is Juan Soto, who got Ted Williams as his top offensive comp. That’s the straight-up, pure, 100% unadulterated Ted Williams comp, too. There’s no trick here; I’m not going to say, “Ha ha! ZiPS was talking about 1980s minor league outfielder Ted Williams.” Soto’s plate discipline is other-worldly. In his best season, Joey Votto was still nearly a quarter more likely to swing at an out-of-the-zone pitch than Soto was as a 22-year-old in 2021.

Soto isn’t going to be the kind of all-around talent that Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ronald Acuña Jr. are, but he’s the best pure hitting talent we’ve had since prime Barry Bonds or Albert Pujols.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projections-washington-nationals/

 

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It's remarkable the extent to which last year's excellent numbers were considered a down year for Soto.

For some reason I have a hunch that (assuming we have a season) he absolutely explodes in 2022 and puts up some of the best year-end numbers by any twenty-five year old, ever.  

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1 hour ago, Overlord said:

It's remarkable the extent to which last year's excellent numbers were considered a down year for Soto.

For some reason I have a hunch that (assuming we have a season) he absolutely explodes in 2022 and puts up some of the best year-end numbers by any twenty-five year old, ever.  

2022 is only his age 23 season.

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I LOVE Soto, but it's hard not to think that he's a bit overrated in non OBP leagues. He's going to have to to hit .330 (quite possible) to justify that #1/#2 pick overall position since he doesn't really steal bases. 

Edited by jmcampbe11
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57 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

I LOVE Soto, but it's hard not to think that he's a bit overrated in non OBP leagues. He's going to have to to hit .330 (quite possible) to justify that #1/#2 pick overall position since he doesn't really steal bases. 

The average of his Steamer and ZiPS projections are: 35.5 HRs, 116 runs, 114.5 RBIs, 12 steals, and a .312 avg. If he hits those projections he’ll be a top 10 player and owners should be thrilled. I love pairing him with Albies in the 2nd and Teoscar Hernandez in the 3rd to get some of those steals and I have a strong foundation in each of the 5 hitting categories.

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19 hours ago, meh2 said:

The average of his Steamer and ZiPS projections are: 35.5 HRs, 116 runs, 114.5 RBIs, 12 steals, and a .312 avg. If he hits those projections he’ll be a top 10 player and owners should be thrilled. I love pairing him with Albies in the 2nd and Teoscar Hernandez in the 3rd to get some of those steals and I have a strong foundation in each of the 5 hitting categories.

Top 10...yes. Top 1 or 2...no. Again, I'm not saying Soto isn't a great player, but I think you can make a very strong case for drafting Tatis, Ohtani (if he's a single player), Ramirez, Turner, and Harper over him in non OBP leagues. I mean, is he really significantly better than someone like Freeman? 

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On 3/1/2022 at 8:21 AM, jmcampbe11 said:

 I mean, is he really significantly better than someone like Freeman? 

Good points on the SB and non-OBP/OPS projections. In those non-OBP/OPS leagues it might be better to wait on Soto and get some SBs. Anyone of those dudes can go off and exceed the projections I think this where the well deserved hype of Soto may come at SB cost. Either way, he's not a bad choice but think you are on to something as it appears that you can get same production a round later. But OBP/OPS leagues, you get him top 3 if you can.

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On 2/28/2022 at 1:34 PM, jmcampbe11 said:

I LOVE Soto, but it's hard not to think that he's a bit overrated in non OBP leagues. He's going to have to to hit .330 (quite possible) to justify that #1/#2 pick overall position since he doesn't really steal bases. 

Agreed. He's not a 1 or 2 in non-obp

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  • 2 weeks later...

He looks yoked in recent pics, really starting to grow into man believe it or not lol. How many homers you think he gets this year. He got 18 in the second half last year after pledging to raise his launch angle

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4 hours ago, Picard56 said:

He looks yoked in recent pics, really starting to grow into man believe it or not lol. How many homers you think he gets this year. He got 18 in the second half last year after pledging to raise his launch angle

 

I'd project 40

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