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Shohei Ohtani 2022 Outlook


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On 7/7/2022 at 7:55 PM, Backdoor Slider said:

 

Your leagues should adopt the new MLB Ohtani rule and be able to start him at both. We use onroto and I have him at DH and SP each week.

It's a lot like the old fantasy football dilemma where Kordell Stewart would put up QB points from a WR slot... but even more extreme as an advantage.  For a league that lets him double up - how do you value him?  If it's an auction format league, I can see it, I guess, because at least then each owner can decide how much they want to pay for what is effectively two all star players in one (and an extra roster slot ).  But if it's straight draft, the gap from that to the 2nd most valuable player in the league feels like it would be an awfully steep drop, hard to cover for that.  Do you guys auction?

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32 minutes ago, ipstaff said:

It's a lot like the old fantasy football dilemma where Kordell Stewart would put up QB points from a WR slot... but even more extreme as an advantage.  For a league that lets him double up - how do you value him?  If it's an auction format league, I can see it, I guess, because at least then each owner can decide how much they want to pay for what is effectively two all star players in one (and an extra roster slot ).  But if it's straight draft, the gap from that to the 2nd most valuable player in the league feels like it would be an awfully steep drop, hard to cover for that.  Do you guys auction?

We are a draft league, but keep 8 forever. So fair point, as he was being kept and not extreme value for a while, and now that value didn’t show through a draft. FWIW, I acquired him early this year, but it took Soto to get it done. So some of the “devalue” is baked into age.

In a single-year draft, maybe having him 1 overall is too much of an advantage.

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In case you were wondering why he hasn't stolen a base in a minute, it appears that Ohtani has the actual red light from the Angels. He told reporters he isn't allowed to risk injury by stealing anymore, which is a shame because he's so fun to watch on the bases. Kind of a bummer, and something to note for next year. He's still the greatest show on Earth.

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He should be a unanimous MVP this year. He’s an elite pitcher and hitter wrapped into a single player. Judge is having a phenomenal year for a Division leading team, but what he’s doing comes nowhere close to what Ohtani is doing. I really hope we aren’t already just used to this after one breakout year..

Also, he’s gotta be the #1 ranked dynasty player in ESPN (P and H combined) right? Can’t imagine taking Soto, Acuna, JRod or Tatis over him at this point. 

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24 minutes ago, tywalson said:

He should be a unanimous MVP this year. He’s an elite pitcher and hitter wrapped into a single player. Judge is having a phenomenal year for a Division leading team, but what he’s doing comes nowhere close to what Ohtani is doing. I really hope we aren’t already just used to this after one breakout year..

Also, he’s gotta be the #1 ranked dynasty player in ESPN (P and H combined) right? Can’t imagine taking Soto, Acuna, JRod or Tatis over him at this point. 

For ESPN yes, for Yahoo I'd have Ohtani Batter still as a round 1 talent and Ohtani pitcher in the top 3/4 rounds (which is significant considering that would put him top 15ish for dynasty SPs).

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3 minutes ago, to_be_quite_frank said:

Anyone have Ohtani in a daily league where he is one player?

If so.... tell me what it's like 🥰

 

 

ESPN has him as one player but each day he can only be a hitter or pitcher.  I don't own him.

Edited by jwblue
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3 minutes ago, jwblue said:

  

 

 

ESPN has him as one player but each day he can only be a hitter or pitcher.  I don't own him.

Still, you get to start him when he pitches (sure you dont get the hitting stats when he pitches) but it must be glorious 

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8 minutes ago, to_be_quite_frank said:

Still, you get to start him when he pitches (sure you dont get the hitting stats when he pitches) but it must be glorious 

Went #2 in my redraft league.  

Unfortunately the ESPN Player rater only has the hitting numbers on his ranking.   He is #13 on hitting alone.  Not sure why they can't just take his pitching numbers and ad the two together.  

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22 minutes ago, jwblue said:

Went #2 in my redraft league.  

Unfortunately the ESPN Player rater only has the hitting numbers on his ranking.   He is #13 on hitting alone.  Not sure why they can't just take his pitching numbers and ad the two together.  

ESPN PR (for my league at least) has him as the #10 hitter and #4 pitcher LOL. Insane.

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33 minutes ago, tywalson said:

ESPN PR (for my league at least) has him as the #10 hitter and #4 pitcher LOL. Insane.

I wonder why he doesn't have a pitcher ranking in my league.  I actually asked ESPN this and they gave some reason I didn't understand.

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13 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I have him and we use onroto. I have him plugged in at DH & SP each week. 
What it’s like?

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Was he drafted as one player or did he need to be drafted twice? (once as hitter, and once as pitcher). 

The reason I ask is in OnRoto I didnt  see the option to have him as one player.

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16 minutes ago, jwblue said:

Was he drafted as one player or did he need to be drafted twice? (once as hitter, and once as pitcher). 

The reason I ask is in OnRoto I didnt  see the option to have him as one player.

Yeah, we are a keeper league but was drafted as one player. You get options, including whether he takes up an extra bench spot or not. But that option is definitely there.

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27 minutes ago, to_be_quite_frank said:

Anyone have Ohtani in a daily league where he is one player?

If so.... tell me what it's like 🥰

It’s great until you forget to move him back to the DH spot after his start, and you’re staring at his 1 HR, 3RBI boxscore on your hitter’s bench. 
 
He is usually drafted 1st or 2nd overall.  

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Forced to leave after 5 strong innings in a W over Houston last night with what appeared to be a blister issue. He threw a few warmups and evidently couldn't find enough grip to have command, so he left.

Probably should be fine for his next start, but something to monitor. We are certainly at the stage where if it gets worse, he'll get shutdown.

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  • 2 weeks later...

1.93

This is the ratio of extra-base hits Shohei Ohtani has collected at the plate over the past two seasons to extra-base hits he has allowed on the mound in that same span.

OK, so this is not a commonly cited stat, because, well, prior to Ohtani, there was never any need to look up such a ridiculous thing. But it’s just another way of explaining how awesome these last two seasons have been for quite possibly the greatest baseball talent of all-time.

In the two seasons in which his health and schedule have freed him up to be the two-way star he was envisioned to be, Ohtani has logged 147 extra-base hits as a batter (only Judge has more, at 150) while allowing just 76 extra-base hits as a pitcher (only six guys with at least 270 innings in that span have allowed fewer). So if you’re scoring at home, yes, that’s nearly twice as many extra-base hits collected as allowed.

By the way, Ohtani’s 148 OPS+ for 2022 is just points behind that of Juan Soto -- ranking tenth in MLB. And his 165 ERA+ is one point better than that of Max Fried to rank sixth in MLB. Judge will probably win the AL MVP, and he deserves it. But ... jeez.

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8 hours ago, OaksterDan said:

They should never give Ohtani MVP again. Instead they should just already name the award after him, right now.

His success really raises the question... why can't others?  Is the idea that pitchers can't also be hitters really that far fetched?  We all seem to accept the idea that pitching and hitting are such different disciplines that each basically requires singular, full time study.  But we've also seen guys like Madison Bumgarner who can swing the stick pretty well as pitchers, despite not putting a ton of practice into it.  And we've seen slick-fielding Gold Glove guys who can also mash, and fielding and hitting aren't related skills and each require practice to make perfect.

Is part of the reason we don't see more of this is because we've just culturally decided that we shouldn't/can't, and so we force players down a one-or-the-other path?

Not to take away from the amazing success that Ohtani has shown - he's an absolute monster, an incredible athlete who has had outstanding success that very few can match on either side of the ball, even with them "single classing" on one or the other discipline.  Just wondering if we could actually see more Ohtanis if the sport weren't so convinced that it's a bad idea/can't happen.  He had to come to the MLB fully formed from the Japanese league in order for us to see it.

Edited by ipstaff
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9 hours ago, ipstaff said:

His success really raises the question... why can't others?  Is the idea that pitchers can't also be hitters really that far fetched?  We all seem to accept the idea that pitching and hitting are such different disciplines that each basically requires singular, full time study.  But we've also seen guys like Madison Bumgarner who can swing the stick pretty well as pitchers, despite not putting a ton of practice into it.  And we've seen slick-fielding Gold Glove guys who can also mash, and fielding and hitting aren't related skills and each require practice to make perfect.

Is part of the reason we don't see more of this is because we've just culturally decided that we shouldn't/can't, and so we force players down a one-or-the-other path?

Not to take away from the amazing success that Ohtani has shown - he's an absolute monster, an incredible athlete who has had outstanding success that very few can match on either side of the ball, even with them "single classing" on one or the other discipline.  Just wondering if we could actually see more Ohtanis if the sport weren't so convinced that it's a bad idea/can't happen.  He had to come to the MLB fully formed from the Japanese league in order for us to see it.

A lot to unpack here, but I guess my answer is I don’t think we’ll see many more Ohtani’s, which really points to what an unbelievably special athlete he is.

1) Likely many of these guys were SS/SP on their travel/HS teams. Because they were far and away the best athletes on their teams. But I don’t think there’s something cultural about pushing players down one path. To sharpen their elite skillset, they focus in on one (and often prove as they rise through the ranks, they can no longer compete at one).

2) Bumgarner “swings the stick pretty well” for a pitcher, we agree. .172/.232/.524 and 19 HRs in 14 years (I know, 1.5-2 seasons of PAs). And yeah, probably doesn’t practice a ton, but I’m not sure how effective he could be. 

3) I thought of Brendan McKay as I read this. Tons of injuries unfortunately, but he still had a ton to prove as both a hitter and pitcher. And here’s the thing; think of the bust rate of prospects as they rise through the minors. So even if a player is drafted as both (may happen a bit more as people try to emulate Ohtani), said player will need to prove himself at each and every level, and I think the likelihood of “busting” at one of the two skills is probably tremendously high.

Maybe we’re on the same page here. We may see it even more in college than in the past. But do I think we’ll see another who becomes an everyday SP & DH in MLB?  Unlikely. But on the small chance we do, I don’t think we ever see someone who does both and is literally 50%+ better than the average MLB player at both (150 OPS+/165 ERA+).

People throw out the term “generational talent” way too much. Like 1-2 guys each rookie class lol. But Ohtani is truly a generational player.

Edited by Backdoor Slider
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