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Shohei Ohtani 2022 Outlook


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Even if he regresses a bit can someone make a convincing argument why Shohei Ohtani shouldn't be the first player drafted on sites that treat him as a single player and that allow daily roster moves? So you'd  basically only be losing out on his hitting stats when you choose to start him as a pitcher and you'd essentially filling one roster spot with two players. 

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I am not worried about his on field performance when he is out there. Just about how much he is out there.

In 4 year sin MLB here are his ab's and IP.

326 ab, 384 ab, 153 ab, 537 ab.

51.2 ip, 0 ip, 1.2 ip, 130.1 ip.

So if like last year then great. If like the other 3 years then not close to a first rounder. Can he stay healthy doing that much work again?

 

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12 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

Even if he regresses a bit can someone make a convincing argument why Shohei Ohtani shouldn't be the first player drafted on sites that treat him as a single player and that allow daily roster moves? So you'd  basically only be losing out on his hitting stats when you choose to start him as a pitcher and you'd essentially filling one roster spot with two players. 

I agree, track record of Trea Turner and Jose Ramirez, 40-40 talent with risk in Tatis and Acuna, Soto if it's OBP all could have arguments made for them but I'm with you in a daily league, the hitting alone is first round worthy but the ability to use him when he starts or even just when you like the matchup is huge and like you said he essentially gives you a extra roster spot.

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9 hours ago, FantasyGeek2018 said:

Yes. If doing both was easy then many like Bumgarner would have done it. Too much injury risk doing both. Like he could not his first 3 years.

I understand where you're coming from, but I think his risk is significantly minimized because he's typically DH only. If we're looking at his injury history the only significant time that he's missed was due to Tommy John, which has basically become a right of passage for most pitchers.

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12 hours ago, turner46 said:

I agree, track record of Trea Turner and Jose Ramirez, 40-40 talent with risk in Tatis and Acuna, Soto if it's OBP all could have arguments made for them but I'm with you in a daily league, the hitting alone is first round worthy but the ability to use him when he starts or even just when you like the matchup is huge and like you said he essentially gives you a extra roster spot.

I feel exactly the same. For context, I'm keeping him over Soto in a standard roto league (no OBP). I know the idea of even doing that will make some purists head's explode, but Ohtani is basically a cheat code in daily leagues. And I feel strongly that in this format (one and dones and shallow keepers) he's head and shoulders above every other player. People talk about his possibly regression, which is fine, but what he pitches more innings? Is 180 IPs really that unrealistic of an expectation? That would put him into the 200+K range. 

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1 hour ago, jmcampbe11 said:

I feel exactly the same. For context, I'm keeping him over Soto in a standard roto league (no OBP). I know the idea of even doing that will make some purists head's explode, but Ohtani is basically a cheat code in daily leagues. And I feel strongly that in this format (one and dones and shallow keepers) he's head and shoulders above every other player. People talk about his possibly regression, which is fine, but what he pitches more innings? Is 180 IPs really that unrealistic of an expectation? That would put him into the 200+K range. 

I agree about the pitching aspect of his game. We have seen his ceiling w/the bat and he can flat out rake! I also, believe there is another gear as far as his pitching tool. This guy still hasn't fully put that part of the puzzle together yet. He has the skills to be super dominate in that department as well. 

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As a hitter I love his raw power metrics, absolute monster.  But man oh man does his strike out and contact issues terrify me.  He disappeared down the stretch too. His price tag is immense but with his wheels so it's the upside.  Guy went 46/26 last year and he's got the power and speed for more in both HR and SB... he could easily go 50/30... he's got enough power to rip 60 bombs if he hits enough and gets locked in. 

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15 hours ago, StevieStats said:

As a hitter I love his raw power metrics, absolute monster.  But man oh man does his strike out and contact issues terrify me.  He disappeared down the stretch too. His price tag is immense but with his wheels so it's the upside.  Guy went 46/26 last year and he's got the power and speed for more in both HR and SB... he could easily go 50/30... he's got enough power to rip 60 bombs if he hits enough and gets locked in. 

 

Rendon missed the last 79 games and Trout missed the last 122. He walked more in the 2nd half and despite hitting .229 vs .279 his OBP was higher in the 2nd half, if Trout and Rendon play more this coming year he should see more pitches to hit while also getting more counting stat opportunities.

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  • oswald737 changed the title to Shohei Ohtani 2022 Outlook
  • 2 weeks later...

I've been out of the fantasy baseball loop I apologize. I play Yahoo leagues primarily btw. 

He will no longer be a separate SP or hitter?

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On 2/13/2022 at 4:59 AM, jmcampbe11 said:

Even if he regresses a bit can someone make a convincing argument why Shohei Ohtani shouldn't be the first player drafted on sites that treat him as a single player and that allow daily roster moves?

The argument is, that if he's a bad pitcher (and he's only had one good year as a good pitcher) then you're drafting a UT only hitter coming off a career year. If he's a top 50 pitcher he's certainly worth #1 overall in daily leagues where he is 1 player. 

Either way, what a ridiculous talent this guy is. Can't believe him and Trout are on the same team and might not make playoffs again.  Don't think I ever remember any sport with two guys at that level being so bad. ever

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23 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

The argument is, that if he's a bad pitcher (and he's only had one good year as a good pitcher) then you're drafting a UT only hitter coming off a career year. If he's a top 50 pitcher he's certainly worth #1 overall in daily leagues where he is 1 player. 

Either way, what a ridiculous talent this guy is. Can't believe him and Trout are on the same team and might not make playoffs again.  Don't think I ever remember any sport with two guys at that level being so bad. ever

I'd say that barring an injury there's a 99.9% chance that Ohtani finishes as a top 50 SP. And absolutely agree on the Angels. How can a team with two of the best players be such an absolute mess? People tend to throw the Mets under the bus (and rightfully so), but the Angels have to be up there too in terms a big market team that's completely mismanaged. 

 

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On 3/9/2022 at 4:52 AM, tonywow said:

I've been out of the fantasy baseball loop I apologize. I play Yahoo leagues primarily btw. 

He will no longer be a separate SP or hitter?

My high dollar money league is using Yahoo this year (been an ESPN guy till now) , if you draft him in yahoo, do you get to use him as a SP and a hitter?

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I I don't see any special injury risk.

NL pitchers hit until this year. And they were awkward and sucky at the plate, so maybe riskier. 

He trades a few starts for more ABs at DH.  So I I don't see how he is any riskier than an nl pitcher of old.

I mean,  i can't recall anyone ever saying to avoid nl pitchers because they hit. So with the fewer IP, if anything i think he is less risky. 

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In leagues where Ohtani has to be drafted separately as a hitter and pitcher what's a fair ADP for the pitching version?  60 seem fair? 

The upside is massive, but he'll have starts taken away via the six man rotation.  And he's a higher injury risk than your typical pitcher due to all the at bats.

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  • 2 weeks later...

This'll be a nice boost not only for Ohtani, but for the Angels as well. Ohtani can stay in the game as the DH even after he's done pitching

Quote

In addition, the deal also essentially has a Shohei Ohtani rule with the designated hitter becoming universal in the new collective bargaining agreement. The new rule stipulates that if the starting pitcher is also hitting in the lineup, then that player remains as the DH even if he is pulled from the start. Thus, if Ohtani, say, pitched five innings, he would still hit through the entire game. This rule is for the life of the new CBA, not just for 2022 and the hope is to promote more two-way players.

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With Show-Hey hitting leadoff, can you think of any other leadoff hitter that should be bumped by a more productive player? For me, I don't understand 300 OBP Rosario holding Acuna's spot warm for him. Just bump up Albies and everybody else. Anyways, Ohtani is still gonna run a lot up top there, so yum yum.

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6 hours ago, David Aames said:

For you espn guys, are we able to now start ohtani the sp and ohtani the dh in the same game? I thought i read somewhere that you could

It looks like this is not the case.   I was poised to break out into song if this was true.

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9 hours ago, David Aames said:

For you espn guys, are we able to now start ohtani the sp and ohtani the dh in the same game? I thought i read somewhere that you could

all non ohtani owners would wail from the mountain tops that we’re “cheating”

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1 hour ago, GeorgeCostanza said:

all non ohtani owners would wail from the mountain tops that we’re “cheating”

Roto leagues with weekly lineup sets, where you have to choose hitter Ohtani or pitcher Ohtani, where would you rank him?

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