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Cedric Mullins 2022 Outlook


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Wow we never knew.  So glad he is doing good now:

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Cedric Mullins revealed Wednesday via MLB Players Media that he was diagnosed with Crohn's disease in 2020.

Mullins first started feeling symptoms in the spring of 2020 but played through the pandemic-affected season with the help of antibiotics before undergoing surgery on his intestines that November. He lost 20 pounds and admitted to having doubts about how he could perform physically heading into 2021, but the dynamic 27-year-old center fielder put all of those doubts to rest while breaking through for 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases in 159 games with the Orioles. Mullins is now going as a top-35 player in early fantasy drafts for 2022.

Source: MLB Players Media          Feb 2, 2022, 2:27 PM ET

 

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9 hours ago, Eddie Mush said:

Expecting major regression in the HR department due to the fences pushed back. I expect more of a 80-15-40-25 .275 line this year.

So no regression for Cedric the Homer Hit because of the fence moving then.  Ryan Mountcastle and Trey Mancini are not so lucky.  But Mountcastle has the power to hit pretty deep homers too.

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On 2/6/2022 at 10:07 AM, ASHLANDARROWS1992 said:

You may want to do a little homework first..

Yeah I saw the other comment, thanks for repeating it to make yourself feel superior. I haven't done any HW with the lockout but I'm glad you can repeat what others said. I still expect HR regression regardless of my lack of HW

Edited by Eddie Mush
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On 2/2/2022 at 5:04 PM, Eddie Mush said:

Expecting major regression in the HR department due to the fences pushed back. I expect more of a 80-15-40-25 .275 line this year.

Kinda glad you said that because it made me think there's a slight buy low window now because of this perception.  I do think he's falling a little too far in many drafts. That and the Orioles were tossing around the idea of trading him prior to the lockout.  So the fences may not even matter.  

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On 2/8/2022 at 10:27 PM, kidtwentytwo said:

Kinda glad you said that because it made me think there's a slight buy low window now because of this perception.  I do think he's falling a little too far in many drafts. That and the Orioles were tossing around the idea of trading him prior to the lockout.  So the fences may not even matter.  

I owned him last year (and this year as a keeper) and he was just the gift that kept on giving. Idk how he kept it up. I hope he has the underlying metrics to back it up but I understand the negative perception.

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Fences in, fences out, he's likely due for some regression.  Know I say this being a huge Cedric Mullens fan.  He did me well last year.  He's a great story.  I'd really love for him to prove me wrong.  But his 2nd half he dropped 99 points in OPS.  But he he still had an .822 OPS in the 2nd half last year.  I'm conflicted on him this year.

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17 hours ago, PRoSPx said:

Fences in, fences out, he's likely due for some regression.  Know I say this being a huge Cedric Mullens fan.  He did me well last year.  He's a great story.  I'd really love for him to prove me wrong.  But his 2nd half he dropped 99 points in OPS.  But he he still had an .822 OPS in the 2nd half last year.  I'm conflicted on him this year.

Why?  Fences don't hurt him at all as explained above.  And if Crohn's disease couldn't stop him I doubt pitchers can.  I think his drop-off last year at the end was because he was pushing for that 30/30 record too hard.  O's were out of it as usual and all the media attention in Baltimore was focused on him.  So he was swinging for the fences more than normal trying to get to that 30 home run plateau.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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Is it possible to think guy is both overrated AND underrated? Because that's how I feel about Mullins. Overrated in the sense that I expect some regression, but underrated in the sense that I think he'll probably out perform his ADP. I mean, would you rather take a chance on a 33 year old Starling Marte or a 27 year old Cedric Mullins knowing that stolen bases typically don't age as well as the other counting stats? 

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On 2/2/2022 at 5:04 PM, Eddie Mush said:

Expecting major regression in the HR department due to the fences pushed back. I expect more of a 80-15-40-25 .275 line this year.

So basically Whit Merrifield? I can live with that and still like him more than someone like an aging Starling Marte.  

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On 2/23/2022 at 12:05 AM, Dislimb said:

His current ADP is 37 and I find that comically low. He’s a 2nd rounder in roto for sure.

He's not. If you're drafting him that high then he's probably not worth the risk. If he falls to the mid to late 20s that's when it starts to become worth the risk IMO. 

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16 hours ago, Overlord said:

Surprisingly, it seems like Cedric Mullins is being consistently drafted/auctioned pretty much according to his value last season.

And that's what scares me ...

How do you figure? He was 11th on ESPN's player rater last season and his ADP on FantasyPros is 34. 

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On 2/28/2022 at 2:40 PM, jmcampbe11 said:

So basically Whit Merrifield? I can live with that and still like him more than someone like an aging Starling Marte.  

Why?  As explained above the fences are being moved back in the area he does NOT hit homers.  His homer total shouldn't be affected at all.

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7 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Why?  As explained above the fences are being moved back in the area he does NOT hit homers.  His homer total shouldn't be affected at all.

I was just making the point that the other poster's hypothetical worst case scenario would still make him an extremely valuable player. 

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 2/28/2022 at 6:47 PM, Overlord said:

Surprisingly, it seems like Cedric Mullins is being consistently drafted/auctioned pretty much according to his value last season.

And that's what scares me ...

 

As well it should. I am not touching him at the price. My God some of the players being passed up for him are unreal. Teoscar, Olson, Boegarts to name a few I have seen

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  • 1 month later...

can i bump this? he was just dropped in my league.  wondering if i should used waiver

 

how has he looked this year?  i got scared because i heard he had some illness or disease or something.  whats the 411 right now ??

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9 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

can i bump this? he was just dropped in my league.  wondering if i should used waiver

 

how has he looked this year?  i got scared because i heard he had some illness or disease or something.  whats the 411 right now ??

Mullins was an easy fade for me at that ADP, but even so I can’t imagine many leagues where dropping him isn’t a really stupid move. Yes, I’d easily scoop him up with a high waiver priority. His underlying metrics on his Baseball Savant page (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cedric-mullins-656775?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb) look very similar to last year.

 

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21 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

can i bump this? he was just dropped in my league.  wondering if i should used waiver

 

how has he looked this year?  i got scared because i heard he had some illness or disease or something.  whats the 411 right now ??

Dropped? Jeez. He hasn't even been THAT bad. Yea, .217 stinks, but the counting stats are fine. 71st rated player in my league. Disappointing, but miles from being droppable.

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