Yordan Alvarez 2022 Outlook

[UberRebel]

Yes, I’m starting this thread early as he is balling out during the playoffs.

 

2021 was a disappointment for him considering how awesome 2020 was. This guy has the power and contact skills to be considered in the same breath as the likes of Soto, Acuna, Tatis, Vlad.

 

The good news is that the knee issue seems to be behind him. He stole a few bases, played in the field, and seemed to be running well.

The biggest questions are whether the K% will go down and the BB% will improve back to 2020 levels. I still believe this guy is one of the best young talents in the game.

[StartYourStuds]

9 minutes ago, UberRebel said:

Yes, I’m starting this thread early as he is balling out during the playoffs.

 

2021 was a disappointment for him considering how awesome 2020 was. This guy has the power and contact skills to be considered in the same breath as the likes of Soto, Acuna, Tatis, Vlad.

 

The good news is that the knee issue seems to be behind him. He stole a few bases, played in the field, and seemed to be running well.

The biggest questions are whether the K% will go down and the BB% will improve back to 2020 levels. I still believe this guy is one of the best young talents in the game.

No doubt about it. Hall of fame career trajectory in the making. 

Edited October 23, 2021 by StartYourStuds

[RonnieMac]

Thoughts on the big guy this season? I think he has a legit shot at 40 dingers this year if the knees start healthy.  Could challenge for RBI crown as well.  

[IlliniGuy76]

51 minutes ago, RonnieMac said:

Thoughts on the big guy this season? I think he has a legit shot at 40 dingers this year if the knees start healthy.  Could challenge for RBI crown as well.  

This cat may win the AL MVP this year

He legit could bat .290/40-45/100-110 - wish I had shares, but to those of you that do....

[tucker26]

I read somewhere that he’s one of the biggest losers to the shift. Which is crazy cause he still putting up great numbers. While it’s still good to be bullish in 2022, 2023 and beyond, this guy may go bonkers. 

[Ace_King]

Yordan expects to return Monday.

[Nate1213]

19 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

Yordan expects to return Monday.

Source?

[Nate1213]

Just now, Nate1213 said:

Source?

Okay, I see it now on my Yahoo! notes. 

[mehtavg2000]

LFG big guy!

[Picard56]

I seriously love this dude, fav fantasy player. Two dingers and 4 rbi after being activated 

[collucho]

Yordan Rules.

[mike11]

You can always have this guy in round 2-4 and he’s so consistent. He might not have Vladdy’s pop (right now) but for power hitters he’s a threat for 40 with a 280ish+ avg which is extremely hard to get. Looking at Yordan I can’t believe he’s still only 24.

Edited April 19, 2022 by mike11

[collucho]

2 minutes ago, mike11 said:

You can always have this guy in round 2-4 and he’s so consistent. He might not have Vladdy’s pop (right now) but for power hitters he’s a threat for 40 with a 280ish+ avg which is extremely hard to get.

He's only 24 too. I think he may be a borderline first rounder in years to come if he keeps it up.

[mike11]

38 minutes ago, collucho said:

He's only 24 too. I think he may be a borderline first rounder in years to come if he keeps it up.

Right exactly, also prepared for people to say no way but am I the only one who thinks he’s older than 24 and more like 27 lol. Was it Pujols who had a diff DOB than he claimed? Who was that years ago

[collucho]

1 minute ago, mike11 said:

Right exactly, also prepared for people to say no way but am I the only one who thinks he’s older than 24 and more like 27 lol. Was it Pujols who had a diff DOB than he claimed? Who was that years ago

Pretty sure Pujols is believed to have done that. I'm sure he's not the only one though.

[Picard56]

2 hours ago, mike11 said:

Right exactly, also prepared for people to say no way but am I the only one who thinks he’s older than 24 and more like 27 lol. Was it Pujols who had a diff DOB than he claimed? Who was that years ago

lol. oh god, this kind of talk is gonna summon  @Overlord lol

Edited April 19, 2022 by Picard56

[mike11]

9 minutes ago, Picard56 said:

lol. oh god, this kind of talk is gonna summon  @Overlord lol

Listen my man, I have him in dynasty, I want him to be that young and to be fair I did believe it because I took him round 3 even coming off the knee surgeries in my dynasty league. I’m more saying has no one else ever thought this? Lol

[Picard56]

5 minutes ago, mike11 said:

Listen my man, I have him in dynasty, I want him to be that young and to be fair I did believe it because I took him round 3 even coming off the knee surgeries in my dynasty league. I’m more saying has no one else ever thought this? Lol

lol. the thought crossed my mind. i mean soto seems to be the age that he says he is, even though his bat is super mature.

[mike11]

Regardless, in pure dynasty talk when you think about young mega-power ceiling players with a really good eye and strong avg/obp peripherals it has to be Vladdy and him at the top right? Especially for sub 25 year olds?

[Overlord]

4 hours ago, Picard56 said:

lol. oh god, this kind of talk is gonna summon  @Overlord lol

True!

And also ... true about Yordan.

[StartYourStuds]

Yordan was 8th in the MLB in Raw Value+, and tied with Ohtani the AL MVP last year at 161. Wow he’s good and so so young. 

Yordan’s Advanced Stats for 2021:

Raw Value +   161
BIP+                193.2
Contact+        104.9
Discipline+     92.5

These numbers collectively are insane - if he could get his discipline up into the 100’s (which i believe is definitely possible as he has an incredible eye and is extremely patient at the plate) he would be at the top of the list.  Raw Value+ essentially measures a batter based on how a hitter has performed each pitch instead of plate appearance. A RV of 100 is league average so a player with RV of 160 means a batter provided 1.6 times as many runs as league average hitter. RV considers launch angle, exit velo and sprint speed, but also factors in whether the batter was facing a defensive shift, whether he has a good eye (does he swing at strikes and let balls go?), the horizontal spray angle of the ball, and more.  I borrowed some of this from the website “The Analyst” go there if you want more info. Pitchers are also measured as well.

Top 10 Hitter for 2021 for reference. 

1. Soto 187.4

2. Harper 174.5

3. Vlad 173.7

4. Goldschmidt 169.2

5. Freeman 166.6

6. Votto 164.8

7. Donaldson 162.4

8. Yordan 161.6

9. Ohtani 161.6

10. Judge 160.4

 

[mike11]

13 minutes ago, StartYourStuds said:

Yordan was 8th in the MLB in Raw Value+, and tied with Ohtani the AL MVP last year at 161. Wow he’s good and so so young. 

Yordan’s Advanced Stats for 2021:

Raw Value +   161
BIP+                193.2
Contact+        104.9
Discipline+     92.5

These numbers collectively are insane - if he could get his discipline up into the 100’s (which i believe is definitely possible as he has an incredible eye and is extremely patient at the plate) he would be at the top of the list.  Raw Value+ essentially measures a batter based on how a hitter has performed each pitch instead of plate appearance. A RV of 100 is league average so a player with RV of 160 means a batter provided 1.6 times as many runs as league average hitter. RV considers launch angle, exit velo and sprint speed, but also factors in whether the batter was facing a defensive shift, whether he has a good eye (does he swing at strikes and let balls go?), the horizontal spray angle of the ball, and more.  I borrowed some of this from the website “The Analyst” go there if you want more info. Pitchers are also measured as well.

Top 10 Hitter for 2021 for reference. 

1. Soto 187.4

2. Harper 174.5

3. Vlad 173.7

4. Goldschmidt 169.2

5. Freeman 166.6

6. Votto 164.8

7. Donaldson 162.4

8. Yordan 161.6

9. Ohtani 161.6

10. Judge 160.4

 

Great post. Yordan has hovered from 15-30 in keeper ranks for a couple of years but he could get into first round startup value with similar numbers to Vlad IF he can hit his true potential and there’s definitely still room to grow.

Edited April 19, 2022 by mike11

[Ace_King]

Yordan has only played 1 1/2 seasons (he lasted only 2 games in 2020). That missed year obscured that he basically was better than Vlad ever has been in 2019.

2019 Yordan: 27 HR, 78 RBI, .313 BA,  1.067 OPS (87 games)

2019 Yordan per 162: 50 HR, 145 RBI

2021 Vlad: 48 HR, 111 RBI, .311 BA, 1.002 OPS (161 games)

His 2019 production wasn't the product of a hot start before there was a book on him either.  He raked all season. Look at his OPS by month: June 1.139, July 1.045, August 1.095, September/October: 0.999

[mike11]

1 minute ago, Ace_King said:

Yordan has only played 1 1/2 seasons (he lasted only 2 games in 2020). That missed year obscured that he basically was better than Vlad ever has been in 2019.

2019 Yordan: 27 HR, 78 RBI, .313 BA,  1.067 OPS (87 games)

2019 Yordan per 162: 50 HR, 145 RBI

2021 Vlad: 48 HR, 111 RBI, .311 BA, 1.002 OPS (161 games)

His 2019 production wasn't the product of a hot start before there was a book on him either.  He raked all season. Look at his OPS by month: June 1.139, July 1.045, August 1.095, September/October: 0.999

But on the flip side they both played nearly all of last year:

Yordan 277 / 346 OBP / 104 RBI / 33 HR

Vlad 311 / 401 OBP / 111 RBI / 48 HR

[Ace_King]

21 minutes ago, mike11 said:

But on the flip side they both played nearly all of last year:

Yordan 277 / 346 OBP / 104 RBI / 33 HR

Vlad 311 / 401 OBP / 111 RBI / 48 HR

True, and you would rather have Vlad than Yordan in a dynasty league but the point is Yordan has the potential to be a Vlad-level bat. This "year" Yordan has a 1.153 OPS to Vlad's 1.036. More interestingly are their career per 162 averages.

Yordan: 44 HR, 131 RBI, .290 BA, .371 OBP, .952 OPS (238 games)

Vlad: 35 HR, 102 RBI, .289 BA, .366 OBP, .888 OPS (354 games)

They were comparable in AAA and AA as well. Yordan had a 1.018 OPS in AAA, 1.005 in AA. Vlad was at 1.013 and 1.120 respectively at AAA and AA.

I'd rather have Vlad but it wouldn't shock me if they wind up having similar careers.